저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라(TSLA) 기술적 분석 영상으로, 8월 1일 실적발표를 앞두고 주요 지지·저항 레벨과 대응 시나리오를 정리함. 직전 흐름 정리: 주간 이중 천장 이후 244달러 부근까지 하락했다가 반등해 수평 채널을 형성했고, 머스크 발언 이후 숏스퀴즈로 346달러 이상 상승해 약 373~389달러 고점을 형성한 뒤 일간 기준 이중 천장을 만듦. 목표가 도달 현황: 1차 손절 기준(약 340달러대), 1차 로테이션 존, 다음 목표가 차례로 체결되었고 마지막 목표는 기존 미충전 갭 부근으로 당일 저가 약 286달러에서 채워짐. 따라서 기술적 숏 목표와 롱 목표 모두 소진된 상태로 판단. 실적 전 핵심 레벨: 파란색 대형 지지·저항선(가장 중요한 레벨)이 핵심이며, 이 선을 하향 이탈하면 부정적 신호로 봄. 이탈 시 다음 지지는 200주 이동평균선과 약 260달러 추세선, 그다음 약 232달러 장기 추세선, 최종적으로 약 182달러를 대형 숏 목표로 제시. 주요 가격대 및 리스크: 가장 중요한 1차 관찰 구간은 약 275~276달러. 상승 시 1차 저항은 약 350달러, 다음 저항은 약 370달러이며 롱 포지션이 있었다면 해당 구간에서 손절선 상향 권고. 펀더멘털 맥락: 진행자는 시장이 실적 부진을 예상하지만 자신도 모델3 생산에도 불구하고 부진한 실적을 예상한다고 언급. 유럽·중국 공장 부지 검토 보도에도 주가 반응이 약했다고 지적. 포지션 및 대응: 현재 포지션 없음(숏은 목표가 도달로 종료). 실적 발표 후 갭하락 후 반등 시 숏, 바닥 형성 확인 시 롱을 고려하는 조건부 전략이며 현재는 방향성 신호가 없어 관망 입장. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 실적 전후 가격 레벨 이탈 여부를 기준으로 단기 하락 가능성을 열어두되 확정적 방향은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
hello everyone my carnal dare co-founder five trading partners on the Bob I a gene you know people been asking for an update on Tesla going into earrings on August first in the afternoon after the clothes so we'll go over our big outlook though let's come up to speed before we had triggered that massive weekly double top that came down to this 244 level just above our primary target but we also said that could be a good place because this trendline in a significant level there to take profits it bounced back up forming a nice horizontal channel Elon started talking about the massive short squeeze went to the upside actually exceeding the target for horizontal channel which was right around 346 area got all the way up to what was the high their high three 7373 not close to the private high I mean three 89-61 you know I get within a 16 bucks what was interesting then it formed this double top on the daily basis so you see nice double top here's the move that started we did the conservative targets and I'll show you why we took the lower left hand or the right hand swing from the high on the second to the low which was the base on this back to June 26 we have three major targets for all our doubles the first one is stop production so where we lower our stop because if it's gonna reverse and bounce back into the major area of the pattern that's the key level it does and the stop was reversed from up around this 360 area down to around the 340 area it did reverse did not get to the stop level though got to the first cross rotation zone if you watch any of our videos we really focus on the rotation zone built this little horizontal channel then broke down hitting the next target actually hit the next target before it went to the rotation zone which is a first profit target then finally hitting the last target which were interesting enough was right in line with this gap that had already been filled but that was very key area just hit that today we had to sixty to eighty six eighty the low today was what was it two eighty six thirteen so that definitely filled what does that mean well now we just got to go out to the bigger picture but that all those targets have been filled for Tesla so there is no technical short target and there's no technical long target that's why we're zooming out to the bigger picture here going into earnings now we have this blue line is a major significant level it's it's like a support resistance level on steroids we have a set of rules that we use for finding significant levels and you see how it reacted to right here did break below it that's when the key things we'll be watching going into earnings if we gap below it that is not good if we do get below it the next major target so you have this one of these trend lines coming in here actually that got moved to the wrong point that should be the point right there don't know how that got updated but there we go doesn't just change the angle slightly but here's the next area we'll be watching we have the flat 200 week moving average coming in with this rather long trend line coming in about 260 then below that we have a really long trend line that goes back to here coming in based off earnings about 232 now if we get below these areas we'll be watching them for 182 for the bigger short play but the first major carry I'm gonna reiterate is about 275 50 276 area right in there really watch for that you never know what's gonna happen everybody's expecting Tesla to post a really bad number I am honestly too even with their model 3 production looking for them to post a bad number so that these are my lines in the sand I'm expecting a gap lower but you never know it all depends on Tesla conference call they you know we had the article in The Wall Street Journal today actually couldn't get much of a bounce in the stock that they're exploring building site in in Europe you know they came out they're exploring building a site in China they've come up with a lot of stuff and the stock is just not responding to it it filled the short pattern but now again as I said there is no pattern so those are the levels now if for some reason we do rally major resistance up here around 350 350 is the first area of the rally the next area we'd be watching for is right around about 370 so 350 and 370 are the areas that if you were along trying to go into earnings long and we rallied up there at least move up your stops we are not going into earnings with any position right now because our short position was filled and is done so we'll just watch what happens on earnings and then if we get some kind of gap down and rally back that initiates a new short position that's what we'll be watching for if we get a bottoming position that initiates a long position that's what we're watching for but there is no a major thing today that is triggering for either side so that's what we have for you on the Tesla update and we'll talk to everyone soon bye for now
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