저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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결론: 제이미 다이먼은 미국 경기가 견조하고 금리 상승도 성장 때문이라 괜찮다는 낙관론을 펴며, 무역전쟁의 확대와 관세 리스크는 경계. [경기·성장] 미국 GDP 4% 성장은 감세와 규제 완화 덕분이며 연 2%는 지속가능하지 않다고 주장. 자연성장률은 3~4% 가능성 언급. 경기 소비·기업 투자·고용 모두 양호, 실업률은 전후 최저 수준 가능성. [금리·채권] 연준 금리 인상은 경기가 강해서이므로 문제없다는 입장. 10년물 금리는 자연금리(인플레 2% 가정 시 약 4%) 수준까지 오를 수 있으며 올라갈 것이라고 전망. 장단기 금리차(수익곡선) 평탄화는 단순 경기침체 신호로 보기 어렵다고 함. 금리 상승은 은행 이익에 긍정적이라고 언급. [은행주] 은행은 금리 베팅을 하지 않으며 금리 상승은 P&L에 도움이 된다. 은행주 주가가 수익곡선에 과도하게 반응한다는 견해. 장기적으로 JP모건 지점 확장(400곳 규모) 추진. [무역·중국] 미·중 무역분쟁은 확전 시 승자 없는 소모전이며 불확실성과 투자 감소로 GDP 둔화 우려. 대중 관세 2000억달러 추가 및 자동차 관세 확대 시 현재 성장 효과가 상쇄될 수 있다고 경고. 트럼프 측 자문이 보복이 없다, 소비·물가 영향 없다고 한 것은 틀렸다고 비판. NAFTA 재협상은 마무리하고 중국 문제에 집중할 것을 권고. [증시·기술주] 최근 기술주 실적 미스(페이스북 등)는 기업별 요인이며 시장이 과열됐다고 보지 않음. 소비자 재무상태 양호, 자본지출 증가, 레버리지 낮음 → 2007년과 달리 구조적 위험은 작다는 입장. 다만 주가는 미래 예측 변화에 따라 크게 움직일 수 있음. [정치·연준] 대통령의 금리 인상 불만 발언은 연준 독립 측면에서 부적절하다는 취지. 국경장벽 예산 관련 정부 셧다운 가능성 언급에는 생산적이지 않다고 비판. [대상 자산 언급] 대상 자산 중 개별 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않음. 미국채금리 10년물은 장기적으로 상승 전망(자연금리 수준 4%까지 언급). 미국 기술주 실적 우려에 대해서는 과열 아님이라는 중립~긍정 평가.
다듬은 글
let's kick off with why we are specifically in San Diego you're just kicking off your annual bus tour you go and visit branches and and meet lots of your employees what's the biggest thing you've learned from that process over the years so we do a bus trip but there's like a lot of trips you meet people or clients customers employees call centers this one we do by bus kind of off the beaten path and not services in LA but Malibu San Diego cheddar and you know these are both clients and employees do a town hall later we learn a tremendous amount what we can do better as a company you know what folks would like to hear from us more about and so and we have a lot of fun we get to know the Mazarin seems better on the bus in between we take between some of these branches that we take tellers and branch matters ask them to come be an immunity and say tell us what tells me we need to know so we can run a better defense and you've got a very warm welcome here which I'm not sure how many chairmen so far up the chain would get is that something that warms you that you take a lot of positivity from yeah I mean right look I love our people and you know this is our tent there's a tenth anniversary Obama which is why we're doing this particular state and then we're heading up to Seattle and yeah you look you know basically a company is just people you they deliver to your employees they want to do a good job they want happy customers and we talk about clients and we mean it but that has to start with me too I have to talk to clients I have to have him but my lunches and dinners and town halls and and we have to listen to our people because they're people the ones dealing with the customers every day you mentioned the WaMu acquisition ten years since that you wouldn't have the footprint you have here in California if not for it but you've also been a bit critical of some of those acquisitions you did during the crisis ten years ago if you had the time again would you do this acquisition again no one will put us into California we really weren't Florida we had a very small presence Washington State and we've got for my 1,400 bring us to 1800 we've gone from they didn't have small business lending here at all or very small we now have seven billion dollars loans up from something less than a billion so it's just a great spend a great thing for those states in every community that we're no wama was we now have commercial banking and investment banking private banking corporate social responsibility philanthropy so it's been great then the negative I always talked about was punished a little bit after the fact by the government on some of the bad things at one we did but know what that's in the past but we're moving forward you're one of the few big banks still actually expanding your branch footprint that's more in new geographies than just arbitrarily having more branches what's allowing you to do that is it the regulatory environment that are now allows you to push into that or is it because you see weakness in some of your rivals and in those geographies it's the regulatory environment they had made it clear they didn't want us to expand I don't know why I mean a wonderful thing to do is your opening we've announced four hundred branches pretty much between Washington Philly Boston a few others and we go to those towns we do small business lending LMI lending lower middle-income housing lending we do you know we do a lot of corporate responsibility so it's really good for the towns I remember we already do business love towns in credit card private banking middle market large corporate investment bank says doesn't had any incremental risk at all first open branches so we eventually wanted you know grow across the country and fill out some of the cities were not in let's talk about the broader US economy we had a four percent handle on the GDP proned on on Friday do you congratulate the President on that number was he right to take a sort of victory lap after it was announced no presidents get a lot of credit a lot of blame for things they didn't do but the president has done things which accelerated growth so competitive taxes we need a competitive tax and the way the American public should think about for 20 years we've been increasing uncompetitive driving capital and brains overseas regulatory reform I'm not talking about a big bank I'm talking about small business if you sat down he's do it one day with small businesses they'll tell you about the crippling bureaucratic paperwork litigation that's that we've had less small business formation America than in any other recovery so yeah that this is excited the growth we had 20 percent over ten years it should have been 40 the reason it wasn't 40 was because a lot of things that we did hurt ourselves so I'm hoping we continue policies that accelerate growth and growth is good for all Americans that's which is why it's so important to have some kind of growth agenda it's full percent sustainable I think we could do a lot better than to and I firmly believe that the reason was too was not some natural reason it was been infrastructure of bad taxation excess regulation we don't graduate kids at schools 50% don't graduate we don't give kids the skills they need we don't let films have jobs again we have an opioid crisis I like take bureaucracy it takes 12 years to get to get permits to build the bridge that's already they aren't failing and it took eight years to put a man in the moon so the American public looks at this stuff and says that's what's holding it back it was us so it's early to be a Hubble up better than 2% I don't know the natural rate is three and a half or four or three but it's not two about the president's trade policies we talk about the US economy being strong but China's GDP that just came out was 6.7% if that trade battle with China continues to escalate who wins it ultimately who can put in the skirmish category and you know and we the business community is pretty much represented to the president that we agree with a lot of the issues raised by China the business communal would have approached it differently which is to get Canada Mexico Japan and Europe to have a common front to present the China the way trade should be done it needs to be fixed we want to be fixed he's taking an approach which you know what I'm a little worried could create these negative outcomes we've told the president that I'm hoping his methods work if it comes more than the skirmish if you do two hundred billion dollars more and you do the auto territory that yeah I think you could offset you know some of the benefit we've had from the good things he's done he said you told the president that you disagree with his tactics what was his response he obviously does agree with us and so uh you know I but I would also tell you I was also the president that his two of his advisors told them and I'm not gonna name them but they told him there will be no retaliation we said there absolutely will be and they were wrong he they separate people said there'll be no effect on consumer spending or inflation and they're wrong so the fact is some of those things wrong that I want him to do what he want I want him to succeed that having better trade but I think NAFTA should be done I mean they've been talking about this for a long time now it should be done by now Mexico is a wonderful neighbor of ours and we should move on do a deal do a deal with Canada and then you know focus on China now clearly as you've already said you disagree with his tactics but if we consider the news that came out of his meeting with jean-claude juncker last week that there is progress between the US and the EU does that suggest that in the long term he may be proven right that this could all work out for the best it may I mean I don't know any better than you and be criticized his advisers for giving him the wrong advice on tankards know I think that they I think there's been retaliation and I think if we do it there'll be another predictable round of retaliation and there'll be a mounting uncertainty and a reducing investment and they'll you know it'll eventually slow down the GDP and of course no one wants that they're better we think they're just better ways to do it but obviously we want him to finish the trade deal with China that deals with the important subjects you know reciprocal ownership how intellectual property gets handled non-tariff barriers and stuff like that so those issues are all real they need to be resolved in terms of his team Jamie will you ever offered a job in his team and given that you question the advice he's getting do you wish you'd taken it if you were off with it I'm not going to talk about conversation zone I'm very happy where I am I love my company I love my job I know you do and we will certainly be coming to that a bit more in later just on the topic of the president as well very quickly the president said in the press conference just now with the Italian Prime Minister that it would be okay to have a government shutdown that related to the the fact that he wants to get funding for his his border wall what was your response to that I think it's been tried before and hasn't had good outcomes and it hurts a lot of people who really have nothing to do with the process so I think the political process you learn not to use those kind of things to get what they want I understand the president's point but but this is that is not a way to be productive and conducive to growth let's talk about the Fed and interest rates Jamie if we may the president made clear in an interview with CNBC a couple of weeks ago that he preferred lower rates talking about the feds hikes he said quote I'm not thrilled because we go up and every time you go up they want to raise rates again I'm not happy about it but at the same time I'm letting them do what they feel best did he go too far with that statement commenting on Fed policy like a Fed is given their mandate by Congress and that mandate is quite clear you can argue was the right mandate or not I think the other thing that everyone should think of mine later on this range is why are they not so if they're going up and they're going up gently if they're going up because the economy strong that net nets a very good thing so it's very hard to look at interest rates and separate that is one factor and you know say it doesn't relate to how the economy's doing so I think as long as Rachel going up and the economy strong we're gonna be fine when we look at the shape of the yo curve a lot of people get concerned about the fact that it's flattening does that to you suggests that the Fed is a little bit too fast that they should take the foot off the hike pace of an out no I think it's an again a very simplistic way to look at it that's one factor there are a lot of other factors involved and while in history that happened before but we have growth i person think the 10-year bonds gonna be going up not down but again like I said for good reasons you know natural rate to the ten-year bond today with inflation two percent would be four percent and so you know we've had suppression of rates for the better part of a decade around the world those things reversing but so far to good effect which is global growth is going to be strong has been in a long period of time in America looks like it's accelerating so as long as the raising rates than that that's fine well I think about your share price Jamie an for all of the big banks it's been so tightly correlated with what the yield curve is doing how do you think about that is that correlation overdone whether we get a slightly flatter slightly steeper curve do you think people at the share price reaction to it is overdone so we make a very clear disclosure what it integrates a low doodle or P&L now of course that's not what the world is right in straits go up and down for reason but alone rates going up short rates going up help to our P&L helps your profit line so but I think is there no reaction to that I think banks roll different you know we're gonna do quite well as a bank regardless we don't take bets and interest rates but if you think that rates are going down the tenure because the economy is weakening I just said could affect all banks yeah I just think that's not that's not what's happening out there in terms of the equity market Jamie the there's been some big tech earnings misses in the last couple of weeks Facebook was the high-profile one the Nasdaq is down sharply again today when you see those earnings numbers and you see the market reaction does that to you suggests the equity market perhaps particularly the tech sector is a little bit overheated right now not really I think some of those things very company specific and obviously coming to have very high P's when you know they when you're forecast the future changes a little bit it's going to dramatically change the stock price but if you look at stocks if you think we might have a good economy for couple years and the earnings gonna grow five ten percent or more even if peas come down because rates are going up that's that's a very likely outcome I'm not saying it's gonna happen I look at the possibilities and probabilities but the economy looks quite strong consumers in good shape their balance is a good shape there no pot holes out there Len has been pristine capital expenditures going up more people going back to work unemployment may hit a post-war low at one point this year those are all positives and we don't have the leverage in the system we had in oh seven there's always me some kind of problem but that that is not the problem today
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