저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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AI 트레이드는 2026년에도 계속되나 변동성이 커질 것이며, 매그니피센트7 간 경쟁으로 비(非)M7 기술주가 수혜를 볼 수 있다. 인도 증시는 2025년 조정 이후 2026년 신고가 가능성이 있고, 미-인도 무역합의와 대법원 관세 판결이 변수다. S&P500은 2026년말 7,700 전망(약 10%+ 상승), 금은 2029년말 10,000 전망. 일본은행 금리인상과 재정확대가 엇박자라는 평가.
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Ed Yardini, president at Yardini Research is now joining in. Ed, uh, just going by the US price market action. What what's kind of clear is that the AI trade is not over. At the beginning of last week, we saw a lot of rotation out of the AI related stocks, but they came back and look at Micron. I was just seeing Micron's up 200% year to date and the valuations are still seven eight times forward multiple FI27 going by, you know, so far as estimates.
That's incredibly cheap, right? Uh 7, eight times forward multiple. So, what's your thought going into 2026? What should we expect um top down? Well, I think the AI trade is going to be more volatile in 2026. I think what investors have come to realize over the past several weeks is that uh the uh AI stocks used to be fairly independent, especially the Magnificent Seven, kind of like a game of dr of of thrones.
They they each had their own kingdoms and surrounded by big moes and they didn't really invade each other. They had their own unique businesses. But what AI has done is really forced the Magnificent 7 to compete with one another. Uh but they're all going to be spending more money and a lot of that's going to uh benefit stocks in technology that are not classified as the magnificent seven.
Uh hi Mr. Adini. uh good to have you on the show today. Hope you're all set for the holidays and the festive season. Absolutely. Wonderful. So, thank you for taking out the time for today. You know, India's really had a bit of a rough patch. Market's done okay. Market's not like it's not collapsed, but it's been disappointing the lack of this trade deal.
And we had a comment from Jameson Grier. Didn't say anything much. He just said that, you know, we're still uh talking and negotiations aren't aren't over yet. Uh what's the sense? And on Friday, by the way, we had a massive move in the Indian currency. Every now and then there's some rumor in the market and you think the deal is happening and I think that's what makes currencies and stocks move here.
But what's your sense? Do you see any common ground come January? Well, I I think 2025 was a year of consolidation uh for the Indian stock market after having been one of the great outperforming markets for a few years and I think um 2026 could be a better year. Could be a year where the market moves to to new highs.
Clearly, we're going to have to have some resolution of the trade discussions between India and the United States and I think that'll happen. Uh meanwhile in January the Supreme Court may rule that these tariffs are not even constitutional which could uh create some uncertainty about what the US is doing with tariffs.
But um I think the other issue is that China's stock market has been doing very well and I think a lot of global investors kind of view them as alternatives but I I don't I think uh there's opportunities to invest in both China and India though my preference is to invest in India uh simply because I like the uh the legal and corporate system better uh than what I see in China.
All right. Hi Ed, good morning and good to see you Ben. Wanted your view on uh two asset classes. one is the S&P 500 all through this year you know you sounded very optimistic at the start of this year but the way things panned out well you were bang on the S&P 500 you know has kept scaling higher highs so for 2026 what kind of levels are you working with on the S&P 500 and I wanted your take on gold as well all that glitters yes it is gold so where is that one headed
well uh the the S&P 500 uh is basically at 7,000 We're maybe a percentage point away or two percentage points away from 7,000. So, I think we're basically there. That's that's been my my call that we would get there. I have to admit though, this year I I usually don't change my forecast that much, but this year I got a little bit uh uh on a roller coaster ride with the president's uh views on on tariffs, but all in all, it's worked out uh well, and um this would be the third year in a row of double-digit gains for the S&P 500.
And I think next year we could have a fourth year of double-digit gains, something more like 10%. this year may come in around 16%. Previous two years were around 20% plus or minus. Uh this year ahead I think we could get to 7,700 on the S&P um 500. Now, looking at the S&P 500 and gold together, uh what I found um if you put the the the two on the exact same chart with the same uh scale, what you see is that the gold and the S&P 500 tend to be inversely related on a short-term basis, which makes gold a good way to diversify a US stock portfolio of the S&P 500.
The trend, however, is almost identical. And so I've got the S&P 500 getting to 10,000 uh by the end of the decade, by the end of 2029. And I think gold could get there as well. So 7,700 by the end of 2026. So that is a little more than a 10% upside. 77 Yeah. 7,700 by the end of uh the of 2026 for the S&P 500.
10,000 u for the S&P and for the price of gold uh by the end of 2029. Wow. But gold is up 5,000. It's going to double. Yes, I think I think it could do that. I mean, when in the past when we've had gold rallies, they go much further than people anticipate. All right. Wow. That's that's something we'll remember for sure, Mr.
Yard. And what's your time frame? When are you expecting gold to to hit those kind of levels? Well, uh, again, I've been talking about the roaring 2020s, and that scenario has worked out pretty well. So, I would say by the end of the decade, by u the end of 2029, we should see gold at 10,000 and the S&P at 10,000.
Wow. End of 29, gold at 10,000. We'll remember that one for sure. Just the Kaga return on gold is going to be astounding from here on if you've got to hit this kind of return. Uh just a word quickly on Bank of Japan. There was a lot of concern uh with the 25 basis points rate hike. Will it lead to unwinding?
what has transpired and now what is the view is that too much of a concern this hike well it it seems as though the uh issues in Japan aren't really spilling over into the global economy or the global financial markets uh ju Japan's got a a very contradictory fiscal and monetary policy and the monetary policy the central bank's concerned about inflation so it's kind of stepping or uh yeah it's basically stepping on the uh on the brakes Meanwhile, the new government is coming in on the fiscal policy side, step stepping on the accelerator.
It's not a good way to drive a car to have one foot on the brake and another foot on the accelerator. Okay. All right. Uh Ed, we'll leave it on that note. Thank you very much. Interesting conversation as always and wish you a fabulous, fabulous end to the year. Merry Christmas and wish you a very happy 26. And to you folks, thank you very much. Thank you.
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