저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도는 시가총액/GDP 비율 상승과 금융화로 부(富)가 계속 증가하며, 2025~2047년 '멀티트릴리언 달러' 시기에 GDP가 약 16조 달러로 늘어날 것으로 전망. 5년 내 시총 10조 달러 도달 예상. 자동차·부동산 등 소비재와 저축·투자 붐이 핵심 성장 동력. 다만 조정(포트홀)은 불가피. 소형 미지의 기업이나 대형 비인기 성장주를 주목하라는 메시지.
다듬은 글
Every year, Motil Oswald publishes its wealth creation study. It's a treasure trove of insights, long-term themes and the structural forces shaping India's markets. And the 2025 edition frames a bold narrative. The title is the theme is India, the multi- trillion dollar opportunity. A theme inspired by two seinal books, the wealth the wealthy world and brave new wealth world.
Both of which argue that financial wealth has no upper limit. The study begins with a simple observation. India is getting richer faster. Over the last 20 years, India's market cap, it says in rupee terms, has compounded at 17% annually. Market cap to GDP has risen from just 0.5 times in 2005 to 1.3 times in 2025.
It's a sign of deepening markets and rising financialization. This this sits on the back of India's own growth trend, a 17-year CAGGR of 8%, the so-called next trillion dollar or the NTD era which is behind us. In analyzing this period, the study looks closely at the true compounders out of the top 500 companies.
It finds only 35 out of the 500 companies, just 7% managed to compound at 23% in this period. Their characteristics are telling. Most belong to sectors with strong tailwinds. A majority were consumer-facing businesses. Three4s were already market leaders in 2008. that is a starting year four-fifths enjoyed return on equity above 15% and more than half traded below nifty PE in the base year that is 2008 so starting valuations below the next chapter in the wealth creation study looks forward looks ahead that is from 2025 to 2047 and that is the multi- trillion dollar era or so it so this period is framed in by the study the MTD era uh is India's journey toward towards uh India at 100 a period where both GDP and per capita income are expected to accelerate meaningfully.
The study also lays out a instructional sort of you know a portfolio a collection of businesses that in Moira Oswald's view the wealth creation study's view can navigate this long runway of compounding well the message is clear from the wealth creation study compounding economy compounding growth the financial system and the world stock markets are emerging as the new invisible hand the world is getting wealthier India is getting wealthier even faster there is no absolute ceiling to financial wealth As discretionary consumption, savings, and investment hit their tipping points, the multi- trillion dollar era could throw up a whole new generation of compounders.
That's the context. I mean, it's a long report. I've tried to sort of in this short preamble uh you know, lay out basically the crux of what the report is saying. But we have the architect, the author of the report who's done this for uh you know, decades now. Ramyal is with me. Rami G, great to have you with us here.
Very good morning. uh thank you for joining us and I hope I didn't get anything wrong in that preamble. No, no, absolutely bang on. I was listening to it and uh you know there a lot more I mean we could write only that much correct but I think it's a very fascinating subject. I mean when you I mean I've been kind of a student of wealth creation and things like that but you know one of the thing which didn't strike me is that the uh you know that the form of wealth itself has undergone major change.
I mean if you uh look back say 200 300 years back before the companies came into being you know what was the wealth the concept of wealth was you had estate basically physical you had gold silver maybe a palace you know so those were the things which were very physical from there if you ask today I mean maybe shaja maybe Abba or maybe some king of uh Europe or something they were they were all had this physical wealth
come today who is a king today today Elon Musk I mean Bill Gates what do they have does anybody ask how many acres of land he has how many palaces he has how many how much gold they have no they only have market caps it's all paper wealth so from a physical the whole world has translated to paper wealth actually and now people is being actually digital wealth
so the concept of secretization which actually led to this entire creation of wealth I mean when you start issuing stocks uh that's what really with the start of a joint stock company and public participation in the stocks that's where I think uh this wealth machine started and now it has become gigantic and that's what this book is all about this book says that uh uh the world is getting wealthier and India is getting we actually faster so what is the size of wealth being created in the world financial wealth only
there is no relation to the underlying assets really there is a correlation but it is rising much faster like world wealth let's let's use the your f I mean you are a buffet buck I mean his favorite kind of uh the one metric he looks at is market cap GDP yeah yeah now you write in the report well traditionally it is seen as that when it reaches one
yeah so he wrote Buffett's on market in 2000 that was a very seminal report that's why this ratio is called buffet Buffett ratio correct okay market cap nobody compared earlier. So he said one time to GDP is a kind of a glass ceiling. It it is a good level of highs of the market and lows can be what about 40 50 60 and all.
That's what was a theme earlier and that's how even we were shaped. Okay. I mean GDP is a very large number. I mean why I mean that should be the last now in the US. Now in US US uh now it is at 2.3 times 71 trillion of market cap and 30 trillion of GBP that is absolutely kind of a very different level which this professor predicted in 2000
that uh the the the actually limit could be as high as five times. So what happens is there are there is a virtuous machine. So the wealth is being created in the market and then the that wealth has a wealth effect say if mutil creates wealth they have their own wealth effect in terms of what I will do I'll buy a big house I'll buy cars I will do donations I will do big marriages so with that the actually wealth melts so that melting goes into real economy
and then real economy apart from incomeled growth in the economy there is a wealth effect in the economy and Both of them they propel the economy to higher level higher corporate profits that leads to further higher wealth creation higher wealth creation higher wealth effect higher economic growth so like that this virtual cycle continues and that's what is happening
in US and India is a very very fortunate country to have this it doesn't work in every country this machine this machine of secretization or caplation doesn't work in every country I mean there are very few countries of course western countries so now it is called new invisible hand uh this markets or this wealth creation or securization is a new uh uh new invisible hand.
So that is allocating who should be rich who should and where should the allocation go and all the savings of the economy is getting redirected through stock market to the real economy. I just had a basic question right I mean India's per capita is under $3,000 typically what we've seen around the world is that this level of access to financial products in India what we have typically happens at a much higher level of per capita it's already happened here in that sense
and people are there any implications of this I mean is it a good thing bad thing fantastic thing I mean we have a $5 trillion market in next four to five years less than 5 years we'll have a $10 trillion market the way the the way we are managing in a very disciplined way our regulators have been very disciplined and financial system has been managed very well so far.
I mean from the advent of is there a risk of over financialization at this level of per capita G the markets will keep correcting it is self-correcting mechanism so you don't have to worry about it you don't have to necessarily worry and unless there is a corporate earnings nothing will get supported
I mean maybe 22 people might go to 24 25 but then it'll the supply will come which is what is happening right now so the moment market gets overheated there will lot of supply of paper and the moment market get depressed all the supply evaporates you've created in that report there are uh India at 100 portfolio that is 2047.
Yeah. I mean we are talking at a time when technological change is I mean right up there right uh who knows I mean we talking about you know AGI that is super intelligence in 2 years so what effects I mean we can we can't imagine the framework in which it'll effect so how how can we create or or what's the framework to use to kind of build such a long-term view really.
Yeah. So here comes the India the multi-illender oper in this uh continuously rising wealth of the country we went from NTD era from one to we wrote the first paper of next trillion dollar in 2007 from there till what is the journey of 1 to four in last 17 years so that we have tried to examine what really happened what we said and what really happened of course directionally it was right but the time wise it took for five years more because of COVID and demotion but we are there from 1 to four now it is a multi- trillion journey 1 2 4 now it is 486 in next 17 years most likely India is headed to become 16 trillion dollar GDP by 2040 or so 40 41 or
42 42 yeah 17 years 17 years we have we are not economist we are just extrapolating what has happened in the past and there is no reason to believe it should that assumption is 12% nominal growth for the next 17 years but you think we should not quibble too much about whether it is 10 or don't bother about it I'm telling you don't get into this pity things.
I mean it might become even 13%. And it might become 11% or 10% that maybe 42 will be 44 or 42 can also be 40 if you don't have too many. See the journey to 4 to 16 is not going to be without potholes. There will be enough potholes. What will the name of those potholes? Will it be called COVID? Will it be called demotation?
Will it be called uh some other geopolitics? We don't know. There are every trouble has a different name. GFC happened last time. So there will be some trouble. I guarantee you there will be troubles. Okay. So the pot will be there. The issue is that 17 years out we will be 16 till economy. So that is what you have to have that faith that yes this is going to happen.
Now what is the power of this particular compounding? It's the same level of compounding you say but the issue is the base is different. Base is much higher. So you starting not from one you're starting from four. So it's a multi- trillion dollar opportunity. So when you when when the four goes to 16 you know the delta is $12 trillion in the same period.
In the last 17 years you had delta of $4 trillion sorry $3 trillion and here you have a so it is a 4x injection of wealth same rate of growth in that sense which is and then on top of it you have a wealth creation which is also of bigger size than that. So in next uh 17 years I would think you could be 2025 trillion market cap economy.
So I mean these are all wishful thinking. It will happen uh and it will happen at a pace as you write in the report in 2008 also when you you say what we predicted this directionally we were right but timing wise maybe slightly yeah but it can be earlier also this time in the last 1 to four was little letter in uh right now things looks so good that uh because then you have the policy paralysis and all that
see today countries run very well but what is the guarantee that 17 years it'll be run very well you know after a good running typically you get slightly sloppy ones. So you don't know what is going to happen. So that's why you must keep a broad this thing that 17 can be 15, 17 can be 19 but it can't be 27.
That's what I'm saying. So now if you get that actually right then how do you play this insight? The the way to play insight is what exactly is going to happen the moment you cross your per capita GDP about three three and a half thousand India doesn't consume much everything is underpented. You might see today nationalist interview this guy uh Mr.
He's saying that they are going to become aggressive because the penetration of all their products are very low. So as you go to 3,000 3 and a half thousand 4,000 at 4,000 the biggest thing happens that is the explosion in the car demand and that is the Chinese experience they were about four 4 million cars per year in 2007 or 8 and by 2012 when they doubled this thing in now they produce about 25 million cars.
So this kind of journey is going to happen in India in a very accelerated fashion. whole lot of discretionary uh stuff in consumption. uh one is of course this and then I think the biggest of all I mean you can go category wise all the discretionary uh whether it is a uh premium food, premium houses, uh transportation, entertainment, travel, uh cars, I mean whole lot of then you go to go uh business- wise and company wise but the biggest is going to be the savings and investment boom
which has been on for last five six years. You might be seeing that but I think what is ahead is multiple times bigger. You actually identify uh this is a shorter version of what we will do later today evening. Uh but what you identify is financials including capital markets etc as well and consumer durables
is the other kind of big area all the discussion is spent all kind starting with the car car is the one big item actually the house is the biggest item I mean like I'll buy 100 cr house but I'll buy maybe 5 crores worth of car. So uh the ticket size of car is much smaller than house. So the I think the one of the biggest boom is going to happen in uh real estate.
Now the the issue is that there are hundreds of suppliers of real estate. But in the car there are only three two or three suppliers. So that's the fun part of it that uh uh and because the ticket size is very large. It's a deeply cyclical real estate. Whereas a car is of reasonable size, it's much more secular.
So you have to then you then comes to making money. Making money in the market is different than talking this macro. So and that's why we have suggested these companies how we have sized company. Never take those companies as given. You know it's a framework. It's a framework. So how we think but then what is important is you have to buy something which is uh either unknown
small companies are unknown or large companies are unpopular. Large unpopular or unknown growth companies. Right? That's where when you when you marry a theme with this thought process, you get a multi beggar. Well, uh you know, we could we could go on and this is a fascinating study as always, Mr. We.
We'll leave it there for now, but I think this gives a solid framework and as I said, we will continue this discussion in a much more expansive way in the evening when that study is actually unveiled for the public etc. Thank you very much for dropping by as always. Thanks for having me. Thank you. Well, uh that's it from me here with the Moto Rose 30th wealth creation study with Ramj Ramo G. We'll take a quick commercial break here. Uh coming back
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