저자: 미상 · 외국인
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S&P500이 10% 조정 후 차트상 554~551 구간(위험구간) 이탈 여부가 핵심. 이탈 시 하락장(20%+) 가능성을 열어두지만 발생 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 이중바닥 확인 시 강한 반등 가능. 방향은 가격 행동으로 판단하라는 입장이며 특정 방향을 단정하지 않음. 자막 말미에 TQQQ/SQQQ 배분 언급 있으나 구체 예측은 불분명.
다듬은 글
All right, first I need to tell you a very important announcement. This will have to be the last video that I ever make on YouTube because quite frankly, this drop in the S&P 500 went down over 10% and I have never seen the market go down that much before and quite frankly, I just no longer want to participate in the stock market.
This is just too extreme. I can't believe the S&P 500 dropped over 10% and it's just too much for me to handle. So, I have to tell you this will be my last YouTube video update. And of course, I am just joking. It is April Fool's Day and we are just getting started, baby. All right, so in all seriousness, this is a very typical correction within a stock market.
Anytime the S&P 500 drops about 10% and sometimes even a bit more, that happens every 1 to 2 years in every single bull market and it is completely normal. And I will tell you even if we did go into a bear market, try to view a bear market as an opportunity for you to buy at much lower prices and that is going to yield you massive returns in the longer term.
And we know exactly how to prepare for a bull market. All we need to do is stay patient, stay disciplined, keep managing risk, and always follow what the chart and the price action are telling us. So, for that reason, I have this danger zone on the chart and if we start breaking down below that danger zone, we will have what looks like a lower high rejection.
That is then going on to make continued lower highs and lower lows and there is the possibility that could send the S&P 500 into a bear market, which means it could drop 20% or more. And if that happens, that is completely okay. It could happen. I strongly doubt it's going to happen, but it could happen and it is something we will easily be prepared for if it does happen.
So, try not to be too emotional. If you are not managing risk and you are messing around with leverage during a correction or during a downtrend, that is just something you are going to have to learn not to do, but if you are being a disciplined trader and you're not over leveraging yourself and you are managing risk, you are in a very manageable position even if you're currently down on the year.
So is the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. So, do not try to overthink this. This is a very simple chart and there is still the possibility the bulls are stepping in and we're about to get a double bottom. And in that double bottom breakout, the majority of the pain is already over with and we could be getting ready to go on a very face melting rally.
So, do not get too concerned. Just have a plan and always focus on the price action on the chart and that should be the main driver of every single trade you make in your trade plan. So, just keep your head up. This is completely fine. Everything is going to be just fine and there is a very clear risk level right here in the danger zone, right between the zone at spy 554 to 551.
Now, if the bottom is in and we are going higher, we will never come back down and break down below this level. And if we do come back down and break below this level, just manage risk and get risk off and do not mess around if this happens because if you get a stock market crash and they do happen every now and then, you are going to know that by the price breaking these lows and continuing lower.
And if that happens, there is no telling how far that knife is going to fall and that is why I'm calling it the danger zone because we have no way to know if we break down below that support, how far we'll go and that is why you want to be extremely cautious if indeed price confirms that. Now, if price does not confirm that, the bulls could just be ready to rally and this 10% correction from the previous all-time high could be over.
And in that scenario, you're looking for any sort of sign of higher lows and higher highs off of the low down here right around 551. So, be prepared for anything. Everything is going to be just fine as long as you are being disciplined and you have a trade plan prepared for any scenario. And right now, I do think there is a very real scenario that the bottom is in, the correction is over, and we're getting ready to go a lot higher.
And you have a very simple contingency plan if we see the opposite of a lower high rejection back down into another lower low breakdown. And if that happens, move like water and just adapt to it. And if that happens, there is a very good chance this will develop into a bear trend, which could lead to a bear market.
Not guaranteed. I still think it's unlikely, but I will not ignore a chart that is breaking down from lower highs and lower lows and I would never try to tell you to continue to catch falling knives if indeed that price action occurred. So, have a plan. Be prepared for it. It is going to be very simple.
You just have to be patient and disciplined and all you need to do is watch the price action on the chart. You do not need to listen to anybody's opinions. The market couldn't care less what anybody says and yes, that includes me. All you need to do is watch the price behavior on the chart. Bearish if we get this drawing on the screen with lower highs and a lower low breakdown below the danger zone and incredibly bullish and telling us the correction is likely over if we get a double bottom and continue with higher lows and higher highs.
Keep it that simple. I think you will do just fine. There is lots of narratives going around the market right now. I think I've heard pretty much everything under the sun of all of these bearish outcomes. And just as a reminder, when the majority are all expecting something, do not be surprised if the opposite occurs.
So, good luck out there. Have a trade plan. Be prepared for any of the scenarios and always, always move like water. CSE ge allocations that I am taking for the TQQQ and the SQQQ .
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