저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
조정 후 저점이 형성됐고 S&P500·나스닥100은 higher low→higher high 돌파 패턴으로 강세 전환 중이라 주장. SPY 560 상회 시 573~574 시도, 200일선 테스트 후 저항 확인 시 약세장 전환 가능성 언급. 나스닥100은 486 돌파 필요, 474 이탈 시 경계. 비트코인은 84,000 상회 시 상승 재개 및 10만 달러 신고가 가능성, 84,000 하회 시 73,000 우려.
다듬은 글
All right, all right. I am back. I was on vacation. So, last time you heard from me was about a week ago. And today we'll look at spy the triple Q's and we'll look at Bitcoin as a quick update here. And before I left, I drew this possibility of a bottom forming here anywhere within this zone between 550 and 556.
And I told you from price we would need to see a higher low higher high breakout and I drew this beautiful yellow drawing here. And we can update that now because we now price action to look at. But essentially what we're looking from a bottom is a higher low into a higher high breakout. And on spy we did get that even though it doesn't look exactly how I drew it.
If I redraw this, you can see we bounced off of this low. We pulled back into a higher low and then we broke the previous high with a higher high from the higher low. Now, even though we didn't get the close above that, the price action counts of a higher high breakout from a higher low just simply by breaking above that high back there on Monday, March 17th.
So, there is a higher low here. So, what I want to continue to look at the market as is a bottom being in and we are now forming the higher lows from the bottom. And all we need to do from here is continue to close above spy levels of 560. So, above 560 I think it's prudent to view this as a higher low that is likely trying to push higher towards 573 to 574.
And then once we get towards 573 to 574, that is going to be a very important test of being below a 200 daily moving average. But keep in mind that 200 daily moving average is still a positive slope. So, even though we are below it, as long as we can get back above it and maintain this bull trend, this was a full-blown 10% correction on spy, which is completely normal.
You get a 10% correction in a bull market for the S&P 500 every 1 to 2 years. And from a 10% correction in a bull market, you continue back into the bull trend and you do go on to make higher highs. So, that is what I'm viewing this market as. And I will remind you the only way I'll be changing my mind is if we get this retest of the 200 daily moving average and we get a rejection from there.
And that rejection comes down and proves that we did not hit a bottom and we continue lower. Then we are going to have to view this as a bear market because price action will be demanding it. Any rejection below a 200 daily moving average with a lower high into a lower low breakdown in my definition is going to be a very bearish trend which is going to lead to a bear market.
And everybody will be running for the exit and selling their stocks and we will start to see a very nasty deeper pullback which could take us 20% down from the high or lower which does define a bear market. So, I am not saying this is going to happen. I am saying if it does, we will have to say the bull market is officially over.
And until that happens, I am saying this is still just a correction within a bull market and we have likely seen the bottom of this correction going back into the middle of March. And we are now in the very early stages of rebuilding the bull trend as you can tell with objective evidence in the price from the higher low and then the higher high breakout above 570.
So, only time will tell. This is my preferred scenario that we will continue to push higher. So, that is what I will continue to be trading. And it is very easy to manage risk right here at spy 560. On the Nasdaq 100 triple Q's, we were down 0.34% today. And a little different than spy, we got the higher low from the bottom bounce, but we did not get this higher high breakout which is going to require a break above 486.
So, above 486 we get the higher high. That is going to bring us into the 200 daily moving average test of resistance right around 494. And then as I said with spy, I do believe the correction is over and we're going back into the bull trend. The triple Q's had a full correction over 13% from the high, which is also very typical for the Nasdaq 100 as it is a bit more volatile.
But as a result, it will likely have more gains to the upside. Now, if we break to a new lower low, that will be our signal from price that we're going into a bear market. But again, that is not the expectation. That is simply the reaction because we are still in a bull market and with this correction likely being over, we will likely continue to trend higher.
So, keep that in mind and you have very clear risk level to manage from on the triple Q's right here at 474. So, on the triple Q's, I would suggest staying bullish above 474. And then if we start breaking down below that, get very cautious as we could be coming down to break down to a lower low and then start a bear market.
Again, I do not think we're going into a bear market, but we'll let the price do all the talking. And if price tells us we're going into a bear market, then we'll adjust and then we'll just trade it accordingly. And then lastly, I do want to do a quick update on Bitcoin because Bitcoin is doing the opposite of what I said.
I said on Bitcoin there would likely be a rejection from a lower high at 84,000 which would bring us down to 73,000. But again, price is proving me wrong here because what we are getting is a higher low higher high breakout above 84,000. And that is the bullish reversal pattern that I was looking for on Bitcoin.
So, as long as we can stay above 84,000, there is a very good chance Bitcoin is getting back above this 200 daily moving average and resuming a bull trend which could take it to a brand new all-time high in the 100,000 range. Now, keep in mind this is very similar to what I just told you on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 with the bottom being in and the higher low higher high breakout.
And Bitcoin is a very good example of risk on sentiment and it is currently sitting back above a rising 200 daily moving average above 84,000. So, I do believe Bitcoin is looking bullish yet again, which is simply saying be bullish on Bitcoin above 84,000. We are trading $500 above that. So, we are very close to knowing if we're going to bounce from it or break back down below it.
And keep in mind if we do break down below it, it is still possible this is another lower high and we could still go to 73,000. But I am giving you a very clear risk level which is going to be a pivot above or below 84,000 is going to tell you if we're going higher or lower. And higher has a lot more upside and lower has a lot more downside.
So, 84,000 here will be very important. So, if you don't want to guess and you don't want to take any risk, simply wait to see if we can bounce from here and make another higher high. And then I do believe it will be bulls on parade for Bitcoin which is a very good indication of risk on sentiment. So, things are looking bullish.
I know it's going to take a lot more evidence for some of you to possibly believe we are still in a bull market and that's completely fine. Do whatever you are comfortable with. But when I'm looking at the S&P 500, I see a full-blown 10% correction from the high that reached the bottom. And now we are starting to get the price action confirmation that we're reversing out of the lows and continuing back into that bull trend.
So, if you don't agree with me, that's completely fine. Even if you're bearish, I still think you have a little more room to the upside before it's another good low risk short opportunity which will be that 200 daily moving average. And it does look like we'll be there very soon in the next trading day or two.
So, continue to manage risk. As I said, I am completely open to the bear market thesis, but I need to see proof from price. And right now it looks like price is reversing from a bottom and going back into a bull trend. And if I am wrong and price tells me I'm wrong, and then we will just adapt and continue to move like water and we will get ready for a bear market. my am taking for the TQQ and the SQ. But . Ooh.
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