THE BOTTOM! 🚀 BE READY! #NVDA #SPY #QQQ

요약 보기

나스닥100·S&P500은 조정 중이나 거래량 감소로 저점 형성이 임박했다고 봄. 나스닥100은 468 지지 이중바닥 후 494 반등 가능, S&P500은 549 지지 확인 후 573 반등 관찰. 비트코인은 84,000 저항 거부 시 73,000 하락 우려, 84,000 돌파 시 강세 전환. 엔비디아는 116 돌파 여부가 핵심, 상향 시 130 가능. VIX 고점 대비 하락 전환은 저점 신호로 제시.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. all right today I want to look at Bitcoin we'll look at the S&P 500 the NASDAQ 100 and I also want to show you Nvidia stock because it does look like we're still in the process of forming a bottom in the stock market before we go a lot higher Now quickly on bitcoin I talked about last night a rejection at 84,000 was likely going to send us down for another lower high before we hit our price Target at 73,000 and there is a good chance that could happen over the weekend because as you already know Bitcoin trades 24/7 so pay attention on bitcoin below 84,000 it is likely going to 73,000 and more importantly if it doesn't break the previous low down here at 77,000 and it gets a higher low breakout above 84,000 that is actually a bullish indication and if you're waiting to get bullish on bitcoin that could be an indication that you should be looking for higher prices so Bitcoin is still riskof heading lower towards 73,000 below 84,000 but if it can get above 84,000 with a higher low that is going to look bullish and that could be your indication to start looking for bullish trades in Bitcoin yet again the next thing I want to look at is the NASDAQ 100 triple Q's which were down 1.8% today and today we came back to this very critical level that I was telling you we were likely forming a bottom around at 468 and I still think this is going to be a bottom formation down here at this price and if we break this price we'll go just a bit lower towards 460 to 462 now anytime you're looking for a market to hit a low you are looking for some sort of signal from price that we are getting a trend reversal and yesterday we did get the higher low into the higher high breakout which is a bottom pivot and and now that we're breaking back down to the previous bottom there is another pattern you should be watching which is a double bottom pattern off of this support at 468 so in this Zone price is trying to find a bottom but there are a lot of sellers still trying to get out of this market and that is that form of capitulation that I talked about with the high volume selling and this will Mark a bottom because when everybody is running for the door eventually the sellers get exhausted and the sellers run out and when there's nobody left to sell you start seeing the volume drop which is exactly what we are seeing in the past 2 days and that means even though people are still trying to get out there is less volume of people trying to get out and that is a great indication that the sellers are getting exhausted and that is how you know you are getting extremely close to a bottom but catching the exact bottom to the exact day and the exact penny is obviously the difficult part all you need to know is that in this Zone the market is very close to a bottom which means we are very close to a very impulsive bounce and one of the ways I think that could happen would be a double bottom off of 468 and then price would come back up here and break above the neckline and that would be your very impulsive bounc back to the 200 daily moving average which is going to bring the NASDAQ 100 triple Q's back towards 494 from there we need to decide if we're going to continue higher within a bull Trend or if we're going to roll over and ringing a bare Market which means we would get a lower high back into a lower low and that could send us a lot lower but I am still calling this a correction within a bull market until price proves me wrong then we will have a very powerful downward trend on the daily chart and that will likely send us into a deeper darker bare Market I don't think this is a bare Market I think this is is a very nasty correction and a straight line drop they are completely normal and I talked about this before that we just recently had one going back to July of last year that ended in very early August as you can tell this was the same exact decline of about 15% and right now we are currently down about 133% so we could go just a little bit lower and it would be the exact same decline that we had last year which was also a form of capitulation and again that was also on very high volume the volume started to drop high up as we were bouncing out of that hole and then we resumed the bull market and just continued higher and I do think we're in that same exact scenario yet again it never going to happen exactly the same but I do believe it is the correct template and that is what I'm looking for in the market here so look for this double bottom you have a very critical support here at 468 and remember if we break 468 we could go 1 or 2% lower which would easily bring us down towards that next support and even then the market is still trying to find a bottom I'm very confident about this and I very confident it is is a tradable low which means we are going to get a very powerful bounce when the time comes and that bounce is why the risk reward is favorable to try to buy down here if you do not like trying to buy during a downtrend or a falling knife that is completely fine wait for wait for some confirmation of bullish price action structure there's nothing wrong with waiting to sit on the sideline but keep in mind when we get the bounce if you start buying in during the bounce there's still that possibility of the roll over from a lower high you're still going to be at risk of losing money later so this is a volatile Market there's going to be tons of emotions during this that's completely normal you decide what's best for you but I do want to make it abundantly clear this is the Zone on the triple Q's you should be looking for a strong bounce and the volume dropping off is a great indication that we're getting extremely close to that moment now jumping over to spy we have a very similar story today we did break down below 556 but again this is the zone you are looking for the Spy to try to find a bottom before a very powerful bounce and that zone is between 549 up to about 556 and in this Zone here we are going to need to see some sort of higher low higher high breakout back towards that 200 daily moving average rate around 573 this is what we are looking for regardless even in the bare Market scenario because that would be the lower high and then we would go lower and break the previous low and that's how we would know we're going into a bare Market or in the bull market we would just continue to make higher lows and higher highs and continue the bull Trend so I still favor the bull market scenario I think we went way too low because of the capitulation which was evident by the high volume selling and fear and that is when everybody is just selling they don't really understand why they're just scared they see everybody else selling and they're just following suit or they're just getting liquidated due to stop losses or forc liquidations from being overleveraged it is completely normal it happens at least every 1 to two years in the stock market and we are already reaching that point on spy of that full-blown 10% correction as you can see here from the all-time high we have dropped over 10% and that is a full-blown stock market correction and in a bull market that usually is the lowest you're going to go before you just get right back into that bull Trend so watch very closely here that critical itical level on spy which is equivalent to the triple Q's critical level would be this level right here at 549 and then very quickly I do want to look at Nvidia stock because I talked about this during the hot stocks episode that Nvidia was likely going to bounce towards this breakdown at 116 and from 116 we could continue lower or we're going to start breaking back above 116 and get back into a bull Trend that's going to take us back up towards 130 now there is a very big event coming up for NVIDIA and we know this is the number one AI stock with all of their innovation with their AI technology so watch this level very closely at 116 if we get a rejection from 116 we are still in the downtrend of lower highs and lower lows and we do have a gap to fill right around 112 and a support right around 110 but again a rejection from 116 should be considered bearish even if it means we're just going to pull back down towards 112 or 110 that is what I would be looking for and then if we break to a new low you're looking for supports at 103 and 94 above 116 I think we can start pushing higher towards 123 and then 130 and then obviously if we get out above the downtrending resistance trend line we are very likely going to see a very powerful bullish move in Nvidia so Nvidia is at a very important inflection point I wanted to talk about Nvidia because this is a market moving name it's a top 10 company in the NASDAQ 100 as well as spy so watch it very closely here at 116 and that will be another indication for you to pay attention to and then lastly let's look at the vix because a lot of people are mentioning the vix and they are correct in the event that the market has bottomed you are going to see the vix starting to Pivot from a high and that is exactly what we are seeing we've seen this at every other Market low where the Vic spikes and then once you get the confirmation of that pivot you are then starting to hit a bottom in the market and the market is ready to turn around and if you look at this price action very closely on the vix we have three lower lows after we reach that Peak right around 30 and that is telling you that fear is now leaving the market and we're very close to putting in a bottom you just need more confirmation the vix is continuing to crush which is going to be the next breakdown below 24 so watch all of these indications you have very clear levels to manage risk right here on Spy that level is going going to be 549 and then on the triple Q's manage risk right there at 468 knowing you need to manage risk if we start to break down because we still could go a couple percent lower before we start getting that powerful bounce which is going to happen regardless of the bare Market or the bull market and it's more likely now that we're seeing the drop in the volume so Focus up here I think this is going to be a very nice trade coming up and we're very close to seeing it play out and I do think a lot of people are going to miss it simply because they are fearful and they're panicking and they can't see anything happening that going to send the market higher because all they can see in the rearview mirror is a nasty selloff and they just think it's going to continue Forever Until It doesn't and then nothing's going to change sentiment faster than price am taking for the tle Q and the SLE