저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
시장이 투매(capitulation) 국면에 진입했다고 주장. 거래량 급증과 공포지수 16(극단적 공포)을 근거로 제시. 480 회복 시 상승 추세 재개, 468 지지 확인 필요. 200일선 490~516 반등 가능성. 채권시장(TLT) 약세로 경기침체·베어마켓 신호는 아직 없다고 봄. 리스크 관리 강조.
다듬은 글
Did the stock market capitulate? It looks like it. And today I want to talk about why. All right. So, the first thing I want you to look at is I want to go back in time back here in August and July of 20124. This was before we had tariffs, before we had all of the stuff currently going on that people are now attributing to this pullback in the market.
And this was definitely a time of massive fear, what is known as capitulation. And you'll see that in the volume down here of a very high volume spike as we hit the bottom back then. And the high volume is telling you that everybody is running for the door. Everybody is trying to get out of the stock market.
They are selling everything they own and they just simply want out. They don't care where the price is at. They just want out immediately. And another possibility is that they were forced out, meaning they were hitting stop losses or they were getting too scared, so they panicked. Or if they were a large hedge fund or institution, they hit a risk level and they were too overleveraged to continue to hold it.
So they were forced to liquidate that position. Now, what you'll see in today's market is a very similar waterfall wave of selling where we're really just going straight down with tiny little bounces along the way, which are known as deadcat bounces. And during those periods in the market, everybody is just panicking.
And you can see we have the same exact spike in volume yet again with the last two trading days as the highest volume trading days for the year. So, this is definitely a form of capitulation. And while that usually does mark a short-term bottom, it does not guarantee that it has to be a bottom forever.
Meaning, if we are still in a bull market, we will come out of that capitulation low, put a higher low and continue a bull market. Or in a bare market scenario, if I zoom in here, we will bounce out of this capitulation low and it will be a sizable bounce. That should take us to at least this 200 daily moving average, which is right around 493 on the triple Q's.
And then from there, we would need to see if we get the higher low, higher high breakout to continue what is already a bull market. And that would signal the correction is over and we're ready to go higher or we are going to ring in a bare market and we are going to get a lower high breakdown into a lower low breakdown.
And this by far after a capitulation event and a failure to hold a higher low would be a signal from price and the chart that we are indeed going into a bare market. So I want to be very clear. I do not think we're going into a bare market, but that doesn't mean I'm going to be right. I do think this is a capitulation bottom within a bull market, and I do think we are going to continue the bull market through the summer.
But I will caution you against just blindly assuming that is as we are bouncing, this is going to be a good time to continue to manage your risk. Meaning, if you are still holding long positions, you need to be careful here. As we're bouncing out of this hole, it is going to happen. We are going to bounce at some point and it is going to be a tradable bounce meaning it is going to be a very large move.
It is not just going to be a tiny 1 to 2% day. It is going to be a consecutive day bounce that is going to easily take us up five six maybe even 10%. So that move is going to be somewhere in this ballpark anywhere between 490 all the way up to 514 to 516 and then from there it is going to be something we need to watch on if we get the higher low higher high or if we just continue to flush and get more capitulation.
But keep in mind capitulation is not something that can happen often because in order to get high volume selling you have to have some people that have positions to sell. And during a capitulation event, if everybody is selling and everybody is panicking, you are running out of sellers. And that leaves the market more vulnerable to have moves to the upside because the sellers are drying up and buyers could be stepping in.
So, do not get overly bearish right here at these prices, especially down here at this level right around 468. This is likely going to be a tradeable low because like I just showed you with the high volume selling and the straight line drop, we are running out of sellers. no matter how you look at it.
And the smart bears know that and they're not going to continue to short shares they don't own for fear of getting short squeezed out of the hole. So this is what's known as shorting the hole. I'm not saying we can't go lower. I am saying it is very dangerous to try to trade a lower move because you are going to get a very violent bounce when it happens.
And tomorrow is the CPI data. So it's likely going to happen tomorrow with high volume trading. This doesn't mean CPI data has to be good because in my opinion inflation narrative is totally gone. There is no fear of inflation at this point in the market. So in my opinion, the CPI data is just going to be an excuse for high volume trading.
And I do believe that high volume trading is going to give us this bounce and that is going to be a sizable bounce that could carry into the end of the week. Now when we get there and when we get a bounce, we will be watching it very closely. And I told you I will tell you this is likely a bare market if we roll over and break the low and continue a downtrend.
And you could see down here I have a bare market zoned on the triple Q's marked in the low 430s. I'm not going to wait until we're in the 430s to call it a bare market. It will likely happen way before that based on all of the price action movements on the chart. So, we're getting very close to a very tradable bottom.
This is market capitulation without a doubt. I know I raised it as a question of if it is capitulation, but I am telling you this is market capitulation. And I do want you to look very closely at how similar it looks to that capitulation event that we had in July and August. And I'm going to show you very quickly if I go to the fear and greed index, we are at 16 on the extreme fear.
And you can go to the timeline of this and see back in August during that capitulation event, we hit extreme fear of 17. Now, not only did we go below 17, but just the other day, we had extreme fear readings of 14 on March 10th. So, we are getting the same exact extreme fear readings that we are getting when we had the same exact price action back here in August of 2024.
So, yes, this is capitulation and yes, I do think it is going to ignite another bull market, which means we will likely throughout the summer and we will know if that is not going to be the case. If price proves me wrong, which I am completely open to and that will be the break of the lower high and the lower low rejection and then this event, there is no way I would ever call this a bull market.
If this were to occur, this would be a textbook risk off and only looking for the market to go lower until the trend reversed. So, I want this to be abundantly clear. I'm going to say it as many times as I need, especially because we haven't got the balance yet. And more importantly, I do want you to keep watching the bond market because I've told you many times if we are going into a nasty recession that is going to cause a bare market, TLT is going to skyrocket above the 200 day moving average.
And all we saw today was more selling in the bond market with another lower high rejection below a negatively sloping 200 day moving average. And if we break down below 90, the bond market is just going to continue to go lower as the money is leaving the bond market. And this is not price action you are going to see in a bare market driven recession market.
So no recession means no bare market. You're not going to go into a bare market because of inflation. That's sure as hell not going to happen. So, unless you know something I don't know or you know of a Black Swan event that I don't know about, and yes, I know a lot of you are so caught up in all the narratives going around, which is completely fine.
That is the same exact thing people were doing back there in August. There was so much talk about Japan and the carry trade. There's always a narrative. You don't go down and you don't have a correction without humans trying to rationalize it with news and that's always going to be the case. So, focus more about price levels here and focus on the price action on the chart.
So that's going to be triple Q's levels of 468 that you need to be paying attention to. And as I talked about on the weekly chart, we need to see on this weekly chart if the triple Q's are going to bounce out of this oversold condition and close back above 480. And if we get back above 480 by the end of the week, I think the bottom is in and I think the next bull trend will be beginning shortly.
So watch this 480 level on the weekly chart and on the daily chart, we are going to be paying attention very closely to this high volume sell-off support right around 468. And then very quickly, let's also look at SPY because we did get the second day in a row closing below the 200 daily moving average, which is still a positive slope.
So this could just be an oversold overreaction again, which is a high volume form of capitulation. So as we are looking at SPY, we need to watch this level very closely right here at 556. And this would be where we are going to be looking for the bounce. And if that bounce yields a lower high and a lower low, then we'll start talking about the bare market.
But if we don't see that and we bounce out of here with a higher low and higher high, I do believe this is going to be the start to the next bull trend. So, it's still a bull market. We have seen nothing from the price action on the chart that allows us to say we're in a bare market just yet. And if we do see a bare market starting, I will be the first to let you know.
And I will correlate that to the bond market, too. Because if we go into a nasty bare market in a recession, the bond market is likely going to be a great place to be trading. So, we'll be paying attention to that anyway. So, stay disciplined here. I know emotions are near all-time highs with a very drastic sell-off.
And I know even the bears weren't catching that entire move down because of how quickly it happened. There's not many bears that were just holding blindly through that whole way down. So, I know even if you are a bear, it's frustrating when the moves happen that quickly cuz you weren't even able to fully trade it.
But that's okay. Just continue to manage risk. There's always the next best trade right around the corner. And right now, the next best trade should be this long position trade towards a bounce, even if it is just a lower high within a downtrend. So stay disciplined, manage risk always, never forget to manage risk.
That is the most important thing you can do as a trader and continue to put yourself in the best riskreward setups. aking for the TEQ or the S.
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