저자: Corey · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라와 엔비디아 차트를 분석하며 두 종목 모두 하락 추세(lower high/lower low)라고 진단. 테슬라는 고점 대비 54% 하락, 218.72 갭 충전 가능성과 198~219 구간의 과매도 거래량 바닥 가능성을 언급하나 추세 전환 확인 전까지 신중 권고. 엔비디아는 116 저항 아래에서 하락 추세 지속 가능성, 103·94 지지선 언급. 추세 전환 확인(higher low/high 돌파) 전까지 FOMO 경계.
다듬은 글
Tesla and Nvidia stock. It's time to crack open these charts and see what's going on. Corey got the charts on smash. He don't play games. Calling tops, calling bottoms, y'all remain sane. All right, so first up is Tesla. And the last time we looked at this, we were right here at this lower high, and I was talking about the risk reward of being a bull or a bear here.
And back then, I was saying even if we went a bit higher, we were still putting in all of these lower highs on this chart. And all we have as traders is a chart that we can follow, which means the most important thing on the chart that we're following is the price movement. And when price is making lower highs and lower lows ever since we had that breakdown below 379, that is telling you from price that things are trending lower, and that cannot be ignored.
So, even if we went up to 379, the risk was still there for a bearish rejection, and obviously we can see the rest is history because we've been flushing ever since. And we didn't even get up to 379, so we didn't even get the retest of the breakdown. We just had the rejection here in the 360s. Now, one thing I want you to pay attention to is now that we've had this pullback, Tesla stock from the previous all-time high is down over 54%.
So, this is not just a mild pullback. This is a full-blown bear market in Tesla stock and anytime you're in a bear market, you are in a very powerful downtrend. Now, a bear market is anything that has dropped more than 20% from its all-time high, and that doesn't mean it has to stop there because as you can see, we're down over 50%.
Now, I do think Tesla is getting to a very interesting point because this is a retail favorite stock, and it moves like it's a retail favorite stock because it's very volatile. As you can see, the price action generally has a lot of V-shaped moves where we go straight up, and then we go straight back down, and this is very normal for Tesla stock because it is the behavior of a lot of retail traders.
And you could just see over the years, we have lots of V's all over this chart, and a lot of money is made in very powerful trends on this stock because usually once Tesla sets a trend, it is going to be a very large move, whether that's up or down, it doesn't matter. So, that's the history of Tesla stock.
And as we're getting down here near these very important support levels, I want you to pay attention to a gap here, which was an after earnings gap going all the way back to October of 2024, and that gap is likely going to close today, which is down here right around 218.72. Now, when that gap fills, it could act as support, but we also do have support at 208 and 198.
So, in my opinion, yes, this is a very powerful bear market, but there's also going to be very strong support that we're coming into at a very oversold condition. And my favorite thing to see at Tesla bottoms is extremely high volume spikes, which we did get yesterday on Monday. When Tesla dropped over 15% in a single day, it was on extremely high volume, and that is usually going to mark a bottom in Tesla stock.
You've seen it before back here. We had the huge volume spike, and that was the bottom before we went on the all-time high run-up. And then even again here while we were having this pullback, we had extremely high volume, and again, that was another bottom before we continued higher. So, Tesla on high volume going lower is a great indication that everybody is just giving up on the stock, throwing in the towel.
They want to puke on their shoes because they've been holding it from the highs, and now it's way down lower. And this is why I think it's very important to respect the trend. So, even if you are going to consider buying at 218, 208, and 198, do please keep in mind that this is a very powerful bear trend still, which means even if we got a violent rally, which could easily take us all the way back up to the 200-day moving average right around 279, do not rule out the possibility that we still just continue to go lower within a bear market.
Now, if you want to get bullish and you want to see a trend reversal instead of the bear market rejection, you're simply just looking for a higher low, higher high breakout, and this will tell you with a higher low into a higher high that something is changing in the trend, and then that's going to be a lot more bullish, but you have to wait for confirmation from price that this is occurring.
This is not something that you just try to guess or predict. So, yes, I do think Tesla could be getting to a bottom very near here in this zone between 198 up to about 219. I don't think it has to be the bottom because as I said with the bear scenario, we could bounce all the way back up to 280 or even higher and still have a lower high within a bear market.
So, if you're waiting for a bull trend, you have a lot more patience here before you see the higher low, higher high breakout, and then that will be a lot harder for the bears to continue to short that market because that will be a bull trending market off of a low. So, long-term, I do think Tesla stock will recover from this bear market, but you will want to wait for confirmation from price.
If you don't mind trying to catch a falling knife, now would be the only time I would consider trying to catch a falling knife in Tesla because as I said earlier, we have the condition of the very high volume capitulation as we come into a very critical support zone. Doesn't mean it has to be the bottom, but it could be a very tradable bottom.
For example, if you buy within this support zone all the way back up to 280, that is still a very tradable low even if the market rolled over in Tesla and continued lower. So, understand we are in a zone where buyers may start to show up, and it could be a very violent rally back up to 280. And then from there, we have to see what happens at 280, whether we get the higher low, higher high and start a bull trend, or if we just continue a bear market and have another lower high as we continue to go lower.
We'll know very soon. Consider this trading zone. I don't even think you need to touch Tesla stock if you don't want to, but this is a video about Tesla stock, and this would be the zone I would be looking to either cover my short positions or start looking for long positions on any sign of strength.
Next up, let's look at Nvidia stock. This was the beloved stock of the last 2 years, by far the number one market moving name in the tech sector leading the charge higher in the artificial intelligence narratives, and by far this company is a very good company, but that doesn't mean their stock has to go higher.
So, last time we talked about Nvidia stock was right up here right around this resistance right around 140, and at the time I told you the same thing I told you with Tesla is that we were only making lower highs, and if we started to get a rejection here, it would be the perfect lower high rejection, which could send us all the way down to either a higher low right around the 120s or a deeper correction that would send us into the low 110s.
As of now, we're below 110, so we have even more of a bearish breakdown, and the volume is starting to dry up a little bit as we sell off. So, we're not getting the same sort of high volume bottom like we saw back here back in January or like we currently have in Tesla, but we are selling off, so the buyers are drying up as we continue to hit support levels, and this could be an indication that nobody wants to buy the stock at this level, which could mean there's more supply than demand, and the stock could continue to go lower.
Now, in my opinion, I think Nvidia is extremely easy. I have a very solid risk level right here at 116, and while we're below that, I do believe we're trending lower. If we can get back above 116 and start building a bull trend, that would be a good buying indication that it's time to get back into Nvidia stock for a very nice bull rally, but I do think it's worth waiting for because there is the possibility we just continue to go lower while we're below 116.
So, what I'm going to tell you for Nvidia stock is while it's below 116, you can look at these support levels that I have on the chart. We're below 110, so the next one will be right around 103, and then below 103, we come down towards 94. This means below 116, we are likely going lower, which means even if we get bounces along the way, they're likely just lower highs and lower lows as we're trending lower.
So, don't get bull trapped on any green days. Those are still going to happen in downtrends, but in a downtrend, you still need to respect the trend, which is lower highs and lower lows. Now, if we can get back above 116 with higher lows and higher highs, then you're going to be looking to get a lot more bullish in Nvidia stock.
So, be patient. Wait for that to happen, and that way you protect yourself to the downside. If you just love this stock and you're just going to buy, buy, buy no matter what, that is a completely different approach than a short-term trader. Investors will do that. They'll just buy consistently, and they don't care if it's going higher or lower.
They're just continuing to buy. I'm not trying to tell you how you should trade or how you should invest. I'm simply telling you based on technical analysis, this is a weak-looking chart below 116, and definitely while it's below 110, it is likely still trying to go lower. So, keep it that simple. Always have a trade plan around managing risk and following price, and right now price is telling us these two stocks want to go lower, but even in the short term, especially on Tesla, it is likely reaching a capitulation low and due for a bounce.
And you will have a time to go long if we do indeed start to see this trend shift, and we start to see the higher lows and higher highs. You have plenty of time to react. So, don't get FOMO, and don't feel like you're going to miss out. Even if you love this stock, there is going to be plenty of time for you to get back in it when it starts to reverse.
So, E 'm taking for the TQQQ and the SQQQ. And I also have the Stocks Channel Discord if you're interested in technical analysis on other stocks as well. You can find out how to join my services . Corey got the charts on smash. He don't play games. Calling tops, calling bottoms, y'all remain sane.
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