저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아 실적이 매출·EPS 모두 컨센서스를 상회하고 가이던스도 상향됐지만, 가격은 차트 기준으로 판단해야 한다는 주장. 엔비디아는 200일선 위 반등 후 134~140 저항 돌파 여부가 관건이며 돌파 시 150~160, 실패 시 120대 초반. SOXX는 12개월간 210~236 박스권, AVGO는 202 이탈 시 186, 224 돌파 시 250. QCOM은 이중천정 목표가(160) 달성 후 167 재시험 중. AMD는 하락추세로 107 돌파 전에는 매수 보류, 107 저항 실패 시 95 방향. 전반적으로 반도체 자금 유입 시 업종 전반 강세 예상.
다듬은 글
all right all right tonight let's do a special update tonight we'll focus on semiconductors we'll look at the ETF s soxx and we'll also look at some of the biggest semiconductor stocks in the ETF and keep in mind with Nvidia this is a market moving name at one point it was the largest market cap stock in America that has since been taken back over by Apple but without a doubt this is definitely a market moving name so with nvidia's earnings today they did another beat no longer double digits but that's to be expected as they're continuing to grow it's going to be harder and harder to surprise the market but but they did beat on revenue and on the earnings per share and more importantly because keep in mind anytime there's an earnings report that is not what the market cares about we need to see Positive Growth which is future guidance so they're going from a 39.33621 looking for so with Nvidia it is a very simple chart to read right now we are sitting right here on a bounce above a rising 200 daily moving average off of that bounce above 126 and as we come into resistance we're going to have two scenarios here we're going to likely bounce into the mid 130 somewhere between 134 and 136 and then from there we are either going to get a lower high rejection and continue lower or the Bulls are going to take over and we're going to get out here above 140 and continue to push higher so Nvidia is likely going higher in the very near term but once we start getting up into this resistance that is the best time to watch and wait to see if price can get out here above resistance which is going to be above 140 or if we're going to get rejected in the mid 130s to low 140s and then continue lower to the low 120s now keep in mind even though Nvidia beat earnings and raise guidance nothing beats following price as a Trader it doesn't matter if the earnings were good if the price is going lower the price is going lower and that is the most important lesson that traders in the short term need to learn is sometimes the stock doesn't do what you think it should do that is why it's more important to always follow the price on the chart so with Nvidia you have two critical resistance levels above right around 134 the mid 130s between 135 and 136 all the way up to about 138 to 140 this is going to be a very critical resistance Zone and yes I know a lot of those numbers are very close together so you're going to have to watch exactly where price reacts and if at any point Nvidia gets out above 140 that is extremely bullish and that is telling us from price that Nvidia is trying to break out and head higher into the 150s and possibly even 160s now keep in mind it is possible Nvidia already put in a higher low off of the rising 200 daily moving average and the bull scenario could take over from here we just need that confirmation from Price Right Here breaking out above 140 so Nvidia did everything they needed to do on the earnings now we need to see how the price reacts to it tomorrow and keep in mind even in the bearish scenario it's likely we go a little bit higher first so don't get faked out if we start getting rejected from the mid 130s it is still possible we're going lower down into the low 120s so move like water I don't think there's any real strong Edge either way here if you are a Trader you need to manage risk at the breakdown a great risk level for the Bulls is right here right around 123 and a great risk level for the Bears will be up here right around 140 let the price do all the talking and do not have a bias because as I said ear ear even though the earnings were great and they crushed the earnings and raised guidance that doesn't guarantee anything about what the price is going to do from here to illustrate that point let's jump over to sxx which is the semiconductor ztf and as you can see from this chart if we date this back to the left of the screen going all the way back to where price was in this range previously that takes us all the way back to exactly 12 months ago in February of 2024 where we were still trading in the same exact range right here in this zone between 210 all the way up to about 236 so you can see this very clearly if I just draw this line that we've just been bouncing around between support and resistance and support and resistance and this is over 12 months of doing this now which means a Buy and Hold investor that is in this ETF is sitting in the same exact range that they were sitting in 12 months ago and this is why I personally like being a Trader because you can put your money to work and you can continue to move like water and in a Range like this as a Trader you can make a lot of money while a Buy and Hold investor is simply getting frustrated that it's not breaking out and it's not moving so keep that in mind a lot of the reason this ETF is not moving out of the range is because a lot of the AI hype was already priced in and now it's really just consolidating a lot of those gains getting ready for the next major move and that's important to note because there will be a major move once you're in a range for over 12 months you're typically going to break out of that range and I do think we have a very clear range to watch here which is going to be either a breakdown below the range low at 210 or a breakout above the Range High at 236 now until that happens we either going to get the bear breakdown or the bull break out there is still the possibility we just continue to ping pong around in this range and then get a breakout at a later date but with the earnings happening in Nvidia spilling some of the beans we could start to break out of this range sooner rather than later so this is a very clear range watch it very closely we're closer to the bottom of the range range down here at 210 and if we start to break above the midpoint of the range above the 220s we could push back to the top of the range at 236 above 236 we should easily start pushing higher towards 250 and below the bottom of the range at 210 we start heading lower down towards 198 now while this is happening the Ballinger bands are starting to squeeze price is below all the moving averages but in a Range that means we don't have any strong Trend it's just noting that we are a little bit weak right now so any sign of strength will require a break back above 223 above 223 we could easily push higher towards 236 and if we get rejected from 223 look for a push down to the bottom of the range at 210 the next semiconductor stock we can look at is broadcom ticker symbol avgo which is also sitting in here within a range between 21 all the way up to about 250 with the midpoint of the range right around 224 and while we're down below 224 you can see we are developing a little bit of a bare Trend but the bare breakdown won't be unless we start breaking down below the bottom of the range at 202 and that would bring us down towards 186 a bull breakout will be a break above 224 and then we can start heading higher towards the top of the range at 250 next up will be qualcom ticker symbol qcom and this one did get a double top rejection from 176 and then we did break down below the neckline and below that we were supposed to get a full measured move lower down to 160 and that is exactly what happened so the double top price target has already been met and from here I think there's a good chance Qualcomm is going to start bouncing back higher towards the breakdown which is going to be a retest of about 167 if we can break back above 167 and hold that as support we'll likely push higher towards the top of the range at 176 and if the Bears reject this retest at 167 then we'll likely come back down towards the bottom of the range at 160 and likely even break it and head down lower towards 157 so in the very short term there's a good chance qualcom is going to bounce up higher towards 167 and then from there watch to see if we can break above it for the bull scenario or reject it for the bare scenario and then let's look at AMD stock because this is one of the few semiconductor stocks which is a top four stock in the semiconductor ztf however as you can tell this thing is currently in a bare Market which is currently down over 50% from the previous all-time high so the biggest thing with AMD is yes they are very good they have a great CEO and they're a great company but they're not showing that data center growth in the AI because Nvidia has largely taken over that market share so this stock has fallen out of favor and for that reason it is currently in a bare Market trending lower and the real Catalyst that is going to break this stock out of the bare trend is going to be some evidence and some proof that it can start to eat away at some of the market share that Nvidia is capturing and then I do believe this stock will reverse very quickly but that could be a long time coming until we get more proof and more evidence either through a future earnings report or some sort of announcement that AMD is on the right track so just keep that in mind this is a bare Market this is a bare Trend and anytime you're in a downtrend as I always tell you with any Trend the trend is your friend and as you can see on AMD we did get that rejection from 114 which was also a test of that negatively sloping 20 daily moving average and on that rejection we came all the way back down to the bottom of the range at 107 and now that we're starting to break down below it it is possible that AMD is trying to head down lower towards 100 and then 95 now with any breakdown there is something called a false breakdown which is a little bit of a bear trap and the only way you're going to know this is a bear trap is if we start to see very impuls of moves after we break back above 107 so in a bear trap scenario this is just a false breakdown to liquidate a lot of the long positions bait in some of the Bears to start shorting it and then if we start to break back above 107 and get an impulsive move higher to break back above 114 and that event will likely head higher towards 122 in the short term if we come up to 107 and reject it that is the move that is likely going to take us down towards 95 so right now in the very near term it is very important to understand and this isn't a be Trend so the highest probability chance is that it will get rejected at resistance and that means from 107 it'll likely be a sell down towards 95 but just be very cautious of the bear trap because if we break back above 107 we could still get a very bullish scenario which would likely be very impulsive so yes AMD is still in the dogghouse it is still in a very bearish Trend but it is still a top four company in the ETF that we went over and for that reason it is still a company that is being recognized as a very important player in the semiconductor conductor space that doesn't matter though because you have to follow price and right now if you're waiting to get bullish on AMD the best way to do that would be waiting until it can get back above 107 and then using the recent low as your level to manage risk from which is currently down here right around 104 so AMD is in a bare Trend that could change very quickly but you need to see it through price and the price breakout will be above 107 and 114 before you should be looking to get bullish so watch these critical levels on the semiconductors and keep in mind what I said about the ETF s Sox is that we have been in this trading range for over 12 months now and that is significant because once we break out of this range whether it be to the downside or the upside we will likely get a very powerful move and Nvidia could be the stock that leads the way and leads the charge so watch Nvidia very closely because on Nvidia we are also near a very critical juncture of whether we're going to go higher or lower there's that saying that a rising tide lifts all boats so if Nvidia is going higher I do believe that will be bullish across the board so try not to get caught up in any fundamental stories at the end of the day if we're getting positive inflows into the semiconductors it is likely going to be bullish for all of them the exact buy and sell alerts that I'm trading for the tle q's and the SLE q's and you can find out how to join that
Comments 0