저자: Cory · 외국인
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팔란티어는 이전 영상의 -30% 경고가 적중했다며 99불 아래에선 매수 금지, 추가 하락(50~70%) 가능성 제시. 테슬라는 328 아래 약세로 보고 362 돌파 전까지 경계. 엔비디아는 실적(내일 장후) 전후 123 지지 여부를 보고 판단하자는 입장. 비트코인은 92,000 하회로 약세 지속 가능성 언급. 지수는 S&P500 594 지지 여부가 핵심이며 나스닥100은 510 위에서 단기 반등 가능성 제시. 가격 행동 중심으로 판단하며 변동성 장세에선 현금 보유를 권고.
다듬은 글
all right all right today we're going to look at a lot of stocks because there's areas of the market where I'm bullish and areas of the market where I think you need to be very cautious and I'm even bearish so today we're going to look at paler we're going to look at Tesla Nvidia we're going to look at Bitcoin and we're going to look at the indices through spying the triple q's and I'm going to give you a big picture of everything I think you should be looking at and where the risk are in the market and where there could be some reward in the market but first run the intro [ all right first we have to look at paler and remember back I did that video called cell paler minus 30% could be coming and at the time this was a very controversial video a lot of people thought I was fear-mongering they thought I didn't understand Palante here they thought this is just some guy on the internet who doesn't like my stock but in that video video I gave 100% objective reasoning on why paler was likely going to drop 30% and everybody that knows me knows that I'm usually looking for bullish trades so this wasn't like I was just a be looking for a stock to short I just saw an opportunity in a very low-risk short entry and I did warn the paler Bulls there could easily be a 30% drop from the prices at the time I made the video and as of that video we went just a bit higher and as of today we did have the official 30% drop even though we did close up up just a little bit higher off the low of the day but nonetheless the warning was there the objective analysis was there and it was a recipe for a quick drop to fill the exhaustion gap which hasn't even filled so we're likely even going to go a bit lower here so I talked about it playing out with a rejection I told you that was going to be on high volume which we can clearly see down here we started to get the high volume spikes as we were selling off and then I told you at some point during that sell off we would likely bounce a bit higher to a lower high that would give us a lower high rejection and then that would come and take out a lower low from the lower high which would confirm the continuation of the sell-off pattern and that would lead to the flush down to support which would easily take us down into the 80s so this Arrow was drawn on the chart before I ever knew anything about the sell off we did not even have a single red candle at the time we were actually right up here with the green candle and as you can tell it played out nearly exactly how I said we went down towards the bottom of the range here at 99 we bounced to the lower high broke down below the bottom of the range and just continued to flush so for that reason I want to show this on a 1hour chart because this is the price action and this is a price action channel so I want you to learn how to read price action and during that selloff you could see we were selling off very aggressively here and let me go ahead and turn off some of these indicators so you can see the price action better so as we started to sell off we did get that dead cap bounce to this lower high and we continued to sell off but more importantly we broke down below the previous low from from the lower high rejection which was this gap down open back here on Monday so when you're getting the price action confirming what you're thinking that is only telling you to continue trading in the direction of the price action and that's why you always hear me say let the price action do all the Talking initially we had an idea which I call a trade plan which was the short trade on a high volume rejection we had the confirmation of the high volume rejection and then even from there you could have waited for the lower high rejection there and then we got more confirmation and then from there we had even more confirmation when we broke down to a lower low from the lower high rejection and the rest is history so there were plenty of opportunities no matter how you wanted to enter this trade there was plenty of times to either get in or manage the risk from the price action movement on the chart but more importantly what I want you to learn is that when the crowd is all thinking a certain way and when everybody is just saying this stock is going to go up forever and completely ignores any idea from somebody that could say the stock could go lower that is always going to be a red flag in trading because there is never a get-rich quick scheme in the market by the time everybody catches on to a stock that's had a massive Bull Run for all you know it could be marking a very important top and that is why I did that video on Ark invest on why it is so important to know what you're buying and what it's valued at if you are going to bother being an investor I personally am a price action Trader so I don't worry about long-term Investments but if you are a long-term investor you better be damn sure you know what you're buying and you better be damn sure you know an idea of the valuation because because some of these stocks get way too overvalued and they could spend over a year in a bare market and your money is just going to be sit there bleeding out as that stock continues to go lower because you bought into the hype and you bought near the top so for that reason I'm going to issue one last warning here on paler this stock is extremely riskof while it is down here below 99 I am not going to try to predict anything about how low it can go or how long it's going to take I am simply going to tell you that while it is below 99 I would not touch it with a 10 foot pole no matter what anybody says about this company this is an extremely risk-off chart and in that video that I made about peler dropping 30% I did warn that it could drop way more than 30% which includes drops of upwards of 50 to 70% so this will be my last warning on this stock buyer beware it could be going way lower and the price action to say stay the hell away from this stock is while it's down below 999 and if it does start breaking down below the 80s I do believe it's going down into the 50s the next stock I want to talk about tonight is Tesla stock and I did a hot stocks episode right here on Tesla and Nvidia and I told you in Tesla stock you had to be very careful because we were getting all of these lower high rejections and we did get the lower low breakdown down below 378 and what I was warning at the time is with the be Trend that even if we did bounce up to resistance in the 370s or start getting a rejection at the 360s there was a very good chance we were coming down right through this Arrow at 316 or lower as you can now see that played out perfectly we hit that price Target today and it was on on extremely high volume and when we're getting high volume like this on only the first day where you can see the volume is ramping up here there's no telling how far this falling knife can go so I definitely do not suggest trying to catch it now with that being said Tesla is oversold so yes it could still bounce a little bit and then continue lower and as you can see here we're getting very close to the 200 Rising daily moving average which could mean even if we bounce we still come down lower into the 270s and possibly even the 250s so watch that 200 daily moving average which is Rising so even if we hit it it could be a support because it is a positive slope still and if we break down below it it could be more signs of weakness and that Tesla is going even lower so now that we're down below another breakdown Tesla is going to be bearish down below 328 which means even if it bounces you're looking to sell at resistance at 328 and then above that we have 347 and 362 if we can get out above 362 and then we can start making something that looks like a bullish continuation pattern of higher lows and higher highs on a Breakout that would be a lot more productive for the Bulls and then you could start getting a lot more bullish if you started to see something like this with a higher low and a higher high breakout above 362 but again there's no guarantee that has to happen it could happen and I do want to get into the indices later so focus on what I tell you in the indices because this is a top 10 company in spy and the triple Q's So Below 328 it's definitely a riskof if we start getting higher lows and higher highs and break above 362 we can get risk on for a price Target up here in the 400s next up up is Nvidia stock and this is going to be a very important stock to pay attention to because tomorrow after the Bell we do have earnings and this is a huge earnings report coming up with over $38 billion of Revenue expected and Nvidia is on an absolute streak right now of not only beating earnings but they're also raising guidance for over a year now every time they report earnings so a lot of people are going to be looking for that expectation of a continued beat and raise of guidance as we accelerate into this AI Revolution an era of brand new generative AI chips being added into Data Centers and this is a very bullish scenario for Nvidia stock but we trade price action and not fundamental story so even though we're looking at the earnings as a possible Catalyst what the price does is far more important than simply what the earnings say so as you can see with Nvidia I was also warning about the lower high rejections here and I told you that this was a riskof looking chart unless we started to get out here above the 140s and as you can tell we did get the rejection from the resistance we confirmed another lower high rejection and I told you we would likely come down into the low 120s and we are finding support right here today at the rising 200 daily moving average at 126 so just like I told you on Tesla if we start to bounce at any point and we can make higher lows and higher highs and we can start breaking out of this downtrend and show some kind of higher low higher high Trend reversal then we can get a lot more bullish and that could likely be a catalyst that could start after earnings if they do another beat and raise of guidance but more importantly watch to make sure that price action is holding above that support at 123 if we continue to break down then we're looking for lower highs and lower lows and then that would likely bring us down into the low 110 range so as I'm trying to tell you right now with earnings on Nvidia is I would not bother trying to predict what it's going to do I think this is a wait and see to see if we can hold above 123 and do a bullish breakout and if we do get a bullish breakout we'll likely start trending higher towards 156 and then 163 but if we don't get the bullish Breakout that would just be more signed to stay riskof as we Trend lower towards 110 so nvidia's earnings will be very bullish because again this is a top 10 Blue Chip company in spy and the triple Q's as well which is also going to play a very important role on the indices and then very quickly I want to talk about Bitcoin last night I made a video that a Bitcoin crash was imminent and that was the contingency on the price action breaking down below this neckline of support at 92,000 from this double top rejection and all of these lower highs we were getting in the price action and more importantly we also had the lower low breakdown below 95,000 so as you can tell overnight we did get the break below the neckline as predicted from the chart again just reading the price action saying the highest probability chance is that we were going lower so right now on bitcoin this is extremely riskof below 92,000 and you cannot get bullish on bitcoin unless we can break back above 98,000 while we're below 92,000 I'm looking for a price Target rejection all the way down here towards 73,000 and and that's not to say it has to stop there it could continue to crash all the way down towards 65,000 now if I'm wrong about this which is essentially just reading the chart so we'll need to see price action proving it then we'll see Bitcoin getting out here above 98,000 and starting to Trend higher to try to push to another brand new all-time high but again do not assume this this is the lowest probability chance while we're in the bare Trend with the double top breakdown below 92,000 all right let's jump into the indices because this is where I definitely see some light at the end of the tunnel and where I think the beers are likely going to get this wrong is I think everybody is starting to get extremely bearish and price action is making them bearish because let's face it nothing changes sentiment faster than price everybody that was a paler bull was so extremely bullish and they were telling me that I couldn't possibly be right about a 30% Decline and here we are with paler down 30% and the price is telling everybody hey maybe that guy was right and all of a sudden people are getting bearish on the same exact stock that they were bullish on just a few days ago so believe me when I tell you that nothing changes sentiment faster than price so do not be surprised with these red candles that everybody is starting to get bearish and that everybody is starting to scream this guy is falling and we're going to crash and I would tell you just pump the brakes a little bit I think it is a very low probability chance we see a crash to me this is just a very typical pullback within a bull market and as you can tell here on spot you have a very low risk support to buy from at 594 which means if you are a risk on person and you're looking for an opportunity to buy a dip this is where you're watching price at 594 if we cannot hold 594 I do want you to expect a gap fill lower support at 585 now with that being said it is a higher probability Chance in This Market at this current point in time that we will hold support at 594 whether you believe it or not watch price at 594 and it will tell you everything you need to know objectively because price cannot lie to you it's either going to break down below 594 or it's going to bounce off of it on a bounce above 594 we're looking for a push higher back towards 604 and if we continue higher than that then we have that new alltime high price Target at 616 and 624 if we can't hold 594 watch for that breakdown towards a gap fill at 585 so it can't get any simpler than this watch price at 594 you have the bull scenario above it and the bearish scenario below it and then quickly let's look at the NASDAQ 100 triple Q's which were down 1.26% today and they did break down below the support at 516 but they also bounced off the next support at 510 the triple Q's did get a gap down so there is a gap to fill up here above 519 so even on a short-term bounce look for that Gap to fill and then once that Gap fills we're looking for the opportunity to either get the bare breakdown and really start to flush here down towards the low 490s or we're going to get the bullish scenario where we start pushing higher towards 530 and possibly even a brand new all-time high at 546 so on the triple Q's I think the best risk level right here is 510 while we're above 510 I do believe the Bulls are going to make some money in the short term and if we break down below 510 I do believe the Bears are in full control and we're just going to see a continuation of this flush even if it is after a lower high rejection and then a breakup support so even if we bounce higher first and then break 510 it is still possible we're going lower but in the short term above 510 you're looking for 519 525 and then 530 and if we can hold above 530 and continue to break out then we should see that brand new all-time high price so stay extremely disciplined here there are definitely areas of the market that are crashing like paler stock for example and even more concerning some of the Blue Chip names are looking weak like Tesla stock and Nvidia but all of that can change very quickly in a bull market especially when we have Catalyst coming with nvidia's earnings and the pce data regarding pce data I personally don't think inflation is a narrative it will simply be a catalyst for high volume trading and it will be more important what price does at these critical levels to say whether or not the seller take over or the buyers take over don't have a bias and don't care if we go higher or lower be prepared for the bull scenario in the bare scenario and then let the price action guide you on which one you're trading in a volatile Market if you cannot handle the volatility simply sit in cash and just wait for the volatility to subside it is a much better idea if you're a new Trader that isn't used to trading volatility to just simply survive and wait this out until the market becomes a little less volatile for you follow and the SQ you can find out how to join TSC trade alerts s for watching Everybody Go crush this Market 'all were maintain
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