저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 실적발표(2/26)를 앞두고 하락 추세 저항선과 130~140달러대 지지·저항 구간이 정해지지 않아 50/50 상황으로 보고 매수를 권하지 않음, 돌파/이탈 확인 전까지 관망. 테슬라는 과거 상승 이후 저점과 고점이 낮아지는 하락 추세이며, 379달러 저항 부근에서 316~310달러 방향 하락 가능성을 높게 보고 매도 쪽으로 기울어 있음. 두 종목 모두 손절·리스크 대비 보상 기준을 강조.
다듬은 글
today we're doing Nvidia stock and Tesla stock are they a buy or a sell welcome to hot stocks our all right so looking at Nvidia first this is an extremely easy chart but I will caution you right up front we do have earnings coming up right here on February 26 and my personal rule with earnings is you should only be playing earnings if you are a long-term investor of the stock and do not mind drastic moves which means long-term you're holding and if it went down you would only be willing to buy more so keep that in mind everything said on this analysis could totally change very quickly after earnings and that's a risk you have to decide if you're willing to take but I will caution you that earnings are typically a coin flip because even if the earnings are good the stock could still sell the news and even if the earnings are bad the stock could still rally and a typical short squeeze fashion so keep that in mind that is the high-risk event and it is right around the corner so that will be very important on where Nvidia is going from here but putting earnings aside and simply just looking at this chart and looking at the price action that we currently have there is a very easy level on this chart to pay attention to and that is this downtrending resistance trend line where as you can clearly see Nvidia has made three lower highs for now and this recent one has a rejection which simply means you have a lower high and a lower low which is called a pivot and anytime you're getting that you do have caution to the downside which means we would pull back and that pull back would take us down towards a very strong support zone right around 134 now from 134 if we were to bounce from there and then get this bull breakout that is where you really want to start looking to be a lot more bullish and because the reward to the upside to be bullish is so small right now and in a more bearish situation we could go a lot lower I do not suggest Buy buying Nvidia stock at this point in time this is just a very simple risk reward reason because as you can see the reward to the upside which could take us into the 140s is a very small reward for a very risky looking chart with three lower high rejections that could take us down below the 130s into the 120s so I hope that makes sense we are simply Traders playing odds and probabilities and the odds and probabilities have nothing telling us we could go a lot higher from here until we see that clear price action breakout above the downtrending resistance trend line which is going to require a break above 142 and then 145 so for that reason I could not suggest that Nvidia stock is a buy here if you are looking for an AI play or a semiconductor play you could simply buy the socks ETF which is either SMH or sxx and then you could get a lot more Diversified exposure to Ai and semiconductors but individually looking at Nvidia here I think this stock even though it is a very hot stock it needs more time to cook and we need more more proof from the chart if we're going to get the more bullish scenario above the 140s or the more bearish scenario below the 130s and when I get into a situation where a stock is a 50/50 coin flip and I don't see a great risk reward I am totally fine just sitting on the sidelines and waiting for more clarity from the price on the chart so I know that's not a super sexy analysis of a high-flying stock with a very clear Direction but sometimes trading requires patience and sometimes to be a great Trader you need to have that discipline to do nothing when the chart is telling you that don't have an edge and you don't really have any strong conviction to say whether the bullish scenario or the bearish scenario will be the one that plays out now with that being said assuming you did want to take a aggressive short you could assume that this short position is going to play out and then simply just set your risk above the breakout and what that means is you could enter the short with a stop loss above a higher high breakout and you could still get a decent risk reward short position however I don't think the probabilities to win this trade are extremely high because as you can see in the short term we do have a lot of bullish momentum so we could just get that bull breakout and stop you out immediately which means you're just taking a very quick loss for a low probability trade so I guess what I'm trying to tell you is I don't see a strong position here either direction it's a 50/50 coin flip which means half of you could say it's going higher and half of you could say it's going lower and half of you will be right and I just don't think that's a good enough trade with a good enough Edge to be worth risking my money so Nvidia is a wait and see what happens from here if we break down below 134 that is bearish and if we start breaking out above 142 and 145 that is bullish wait for price to show us by breaking above the resistance or below the support and then we will have a much higher probability trade to catch to the downside or the upside the next hot stock we're going to look at tonight is none other than Tesla stock and this was one of those stocks we caught this very bullish breakout last year right around earnings I said this was a very low-risk long opportunity and we had a very successful Bull Run there but as I always tell you lock the profits while you have them we reached a peak up here and then we started putting in these lower high rejections and these lower high rejections just like I said on Nvidia stock are always risky to be a bull during them because they can always result in lower low breakdowns and I do believe we're at a very critical moment right now on Tesla stock where we could be getting another test and while I can't guarantee it's going to be another lower high rejection I can definitely guarantee you that that is the direction of the trend which increases the probabilities we're going lower so here is my preferred scenario on Tesla even if we go a bit higher there's a very strong resistance right around 379 and from there there is a damn good chance we are going down towards 325 or even right around 310 to 316 so I'm just going to put it right there right around 316 and this is my preferred scenario which doesn't mean anything cuz it doesn't have to happen just because I prefer it but I don't think Tesla is done correcting and I don't think Tesla is shaking out the long positions so the best thing I could see Happening Here is even if we went a bit higher towards that resistance at 379 I do believe the highest probability chance would be a rejection down towards 316 to 310 now if I am wrong and there is always a chance I could be wrong because we let the price action do all the talking and nothing says I have to be right just because I prefer something which means I will instantly start being wrong if Tesla gets out above 379 to 380 and then in that case we're looking for a push higher towards 401 and then 421 so I think this is a very very simple chart I don't think it's ready just yet because we may push a little a little bit higher towards 379 but as we approach that resistance you can start looking for opportunities for a rejection in price to go to lower prices and for that reason I think Tesla is more of a sell than a buy I think that's a very simple chart and I think you can understand why I'm saying that and then you also know where your risk is because if I'm wrong and Tesla is actually a buy then you're going to see that bull breakout and you're going to start pushing into the 400s and 420s so you have a very clear risk level right there at 379 you could also use this risk level at 360 because if we reject 360 then that just means I was wrong about a little bit more upside and we're going down immediately so either way the stock looks like a sell in its current position you could see all of these moving averages are negatively sloping and trending lower and that means with the lower highs and the bare Trend the odds are increasing that people are just going to continue to sell this stock and send it lower so play the odds play the probability always know your risk and reward and never take a trade if the risk is higher than the reward because you will never be profit profitable if you're taking trades where the reward is either smaller or equal to your risk you want trades where your reward is higher than your risk and then you just want to continue to rinse and repeat and take those high probability trades with the best risk award setups and Nvidia was a perfect example of a trade that's not ready and Tesla is a perfect example of a trade that could be ready very soon and it could actually be a very profitable short trade if we do indeed get the rejection from the lower high so stay disciplined stay patient and focus on the price action around these critical levels and you should absolutely Crush this markety calling TOS calling bottoms y remain
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