저자: 미상 · 외국인
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테슬라 FSD 베타 충돌 사고 영상과 해고 논란을 다루고, 테슬라를 인플레이션 헤지로 보며 가격 인상이 마진에 유리하다고 주장. 베를린 기가팩토리 물 허가 이슈는 언급만 하고 중요도는 낮게 봄. 본인이 테슬라 주식을 낮은 평단에 매수해 왔다고 밝히고, 테슬라가 엔비디아·엔비디아 옴니버스 등 반도체 기업보다 부품 확보 협상력이 크다고 봄. 반도체 전반은 크립토 가격 회복 시에야 움직일 것이라 함.
다듬은 글
holy smokes everybody we've got three things to talk about when it comes to a tesla it has to do with tesla just firing somebody on their fsd team we're gonna talk about that then we gotta talk about tesla as an inflation hedge then i just want to say a little thing about berlin okay brought to you by this is on a channel by a.i addict shout out to him apparently and allegedly according to cnbc he was just fired for his critique of the tesla model 3 his tesla model 3 and its behavior in crashing into a bollard now fortunately this bullard was a plastic bollard i am going to show the video clip here i'm going to add my own commentary i'm going to tell you about my experience with fsd and then we got to talk about tesla tesla stock and the inflation hedge and a little bit about berlin all right let's go ahead and listen in here uh we'll play this for about a minute i'm gonna give you some commentary all right here we go february 4th i was driving my model 3 on fsd beta 10.10 in downtown san jose weather is perfect and so is visibility traffic is low as i head north down almaden boulevard the car makes a right turn onto west san fernando street this is where the accident occurs as you'll see and go frame by frame at frame three minutes it's 28 seconds and 19 milliseconds this is my first indication of the vehicle's trajectory possibly going off course at frame 329.02 is when i realized we the indication of a possible collision with the green bowler at frame 329.07 is when my brain decides to send a signal to react at frame 329.12 you can see my hand start turning the wheel this is also when i activate the brakes as hot as i could you'll then notice that frame 329.19 is when fsd deactivates on screen at frame 329.21 the tesla vehicle makes impact with the green bullard despite my attempt to avoid finally at frame 330.01 the tesla vehicle comes to a complete stop bending the bowler to the ground luckily it was only plastic okay a few things here first of all social media took this really far this clip or a portion of this clip pretty much went viral especially on twitter and tesla q fans that is the tesla short crowd and everybody who hates tesla was talking about hahaha look how lame fsd is okay first of all it's a freaking beta second of all most of the clips cut out the fact that the bollard bent over why because those bullards right here if we didn't know they were plastic they look concrete and shout out to galley from hyperchange i've seen him on his fsd videos almost driving into concrete barriers under the trains in in seattle and i have personally been uh twice in an fsd tesla vehicle a couple older versions and unfortunately it does do some quirky things like you really gotta assume it's gonna do some stupid stuff sometimes it's still in beta that is totally normal now is that an excuse for it hitting a bollard well yeah it actually is because the bullards hey they're there but it is probably the hardest thing for the tesla vision to actually indicate these as cones yet now soon they will soon they will they've already picked up on labeling cones in fact now and you can see this on screen here none of these ball arts are actually showing up as cones they're actually almost invisible to the tesla and it's probably likely that this tesla sees this lane this sort of rectangle here is coming to an end and it's trying to align with one of these right white lines here this is a pretty miserable road design in my opinion because you don't actually have a continuation of this line here to imply that oh yeah this is the lane right here it suggests that this maybe is just a marker on the ground which is probably with a tesla seeing that there's some sort of marker on the ground uh that that doesn't imply you can't be there uh and uh and and it's probably aligning to this side unfortunately i'm not trying to make excuses for the tesla it doesn't see the bullets now we could see the ballards elon musk's argument is that hey e the tesla vehicles should be smart enough to be able to spot objects like this and stop yeah eventually they will we're not there yet so while we're in beta i can't really blame the tesla yet especially grateful that this was not a serious accident we don't want to see of fatalities or in you know really bad things like actual accidents where airbags are being deployed which obviously we know wasn't here they talk about that here how hey some people say this is an accident because we didn't have airbags deployed hey look it was an f up so screw up the car didn't see the bullards there's some work to do that's the reason we do beta testing right no excuse tesla effed up here in this but it's part of the learning process for full self-driving bullards i don't see them marked cones used to not be marked now they are when i first bought my tesla i bought a tesla 2017 model x it would not see cones or orange bollards now it looks like it sees cones and orange bollards but doesn't see green bullets and it kind of goes to show you just how far full self-driving really has to come to be perfect now thankfully these were just plastic bullets so the damage to this individual's vehicle was very very low the problem and i'll show you that's the real argument the problem was unfortunately that this person was a tesla employee and by being a tesla employee he was fired allegedly for posting this video so here you can see the scratches here now he claims that this is the first video accident uh caught on camera or or uh full fsd uh camera on camera accident caught on camera boy that was really wordy but whatever uh and uh and he doesn't really go as far as saying uh anything other than this is proof that uh there was an accident with uh fsd here uh uh i think the only reason that this person could justifiably if there's any justification for the firing of somebody for for posting something true is if they sign some form of company non-disparagement agreement which most employees do sign it's kind of says hey like you won't say anything bad about the company even if it's true which is bad because then it's kind of like hey but like what about whistleblowers like you know bad things should come out to public light i mean that's a form of censorship amongst employees yeah it's true now i'm grateful that this came out because now like hey tesla yo label freaking green bowler it's like this is a problem i i personally don't think somebody like this should be fired for me i think a more proper response would be like dude thank you thank you for pointing out that our system does at least in this version doesn't label green bollards let's get that fixed but there's probably something about non-disparagement in this person's employee employment contract we don't know maybe they can tell us unless of course they signed an nda after their departure from tesla who knows they're welcome to come on my channel and talk about it i'd love to talk to them about their ai experience and their labeling experience while they were at tesla working on the fst team uh but not a good look for tesla especially since cnbc is running their article suggesting oh well tesla's social media policy doesn't say you can't say anything bad sure their social media policy might not say that but their employment contract could say that so probably a little bit more diving in there that has to be done i will say though in the cnbc article tesla talks about how there's this uh tech loyalty kind of culture that you have like thou shall not say anything bad about the company that you like or work for or whatever right i i imagine this is really true i mean it's it's kind of like you know showing an oopsy of of like your clan or your guild your group it's kind of like hey man that's that's embarrassing don't put that out there and that did go viral i'm not trying to make excuses for tesla again i think that should have been met with a thank you like hey we fixed that now uh dude you know here we're fixing your car for you how much is that really going to cost the bumper i don't know even if the scratches went through the paint put a new freaking bumper on okay three grand come on whatever so me not a good pr image for tesla oh well uh i'm sure it's fixed by now if it's not it's obviously something they're aware of and will be fixed this is not a big deal for the stock in the long term but what is a big deal for the stock in the long term is the stock as an inflation hedge and that's what we're going to talk about next i do quickly though want to mention that i personally believe and this is just my speculation but i believe that one of the reasons i have not been invited to the tesla full self driving program even though i have a right now i have a 99 safety score i had a 100 for about 45 days uh unfortunately i i fell i drove to disney and uh driving to disney uh through anaheim traffic sucks my safety score fell to 99 which i'm very very disappointed about but 99s and hundreds are getting in the full self-driving program except for me i'm not getting it i think one of the reasons i'm not getting into the fsd program is because i'm willing to say things that are not only bullish right i'm not just uh everything about tesla is the best ohio tesla i will say negative things about tesla as well and if it is true that there is that sort of bro culture loyalty you know clan style uh culture then um then it kind of makes sense why i'm not in the beta because i won't hold back but i'll be truthful like i was in this video like that's called being in the beta you know uh it's part of the game dude that's the risk you take okay so you got some scratches come on man i got my i got my tesla plaid and i already put a little dent into it because uh well a little front curb hit a front bumper hit a curb that a tree had sort of uprooted i thought i'd clear it couldn't clear it oh well can't really see it you'd have to know where to look so now in other news we have seen some substantial price increases from tesla including today we had another price increase when we go to just the purchase price raw here check this out folks the cheapest model 3 is now forty seven thousand dollars uh and then on top of that you're gonna have to pay twelve thousand dollars now for the fsd uh which uh which is wild here's that ten uh twelve thousand dollar fsd which you're not even guaranteed to get the invite for this remember i paid this 12 000 for both my model x from 2017 uh which they won't even let my model x get in the program because it needs uh the interior camera to be installed which is really lame because they said they'd do that for free but they still have never come around to doing that whatever it probably never happened so i bought the model x i'm sorry i bought the model s plaid thinking oh well that'll give me access to fsd and i could review fsd no but i'm not getting the invite so i don't want to make this video about me just complaining about that but this is expensive now this means now you are paying for the cheapest possible model 3 with the fsd which most people are clicking yes to well a lot of people are it's pure profit for tesla right that makes the cheapest version 59 000 with the fsd without it still 47 thousand dollars that's almost 10 000 more than what we saw last year and folks i have to tell you that's a lot and it makes me very excited here's why it makes me very excited first of all we're still waiting to july to get a model 3 base edition right now model 3 base edition july puts us at about three and a half to four months out for the cheapest model three that means we've got plenty of demand elon musk would not raise the prices if there was not enough demand there's too much demand too little supply wait times are still too long so what are they doing they're raising the prices you know what that's actually good for margins margins are probably going to go up to at least offset the cost of the inflationary pressures they have more freight costs as elon musk said on twitter higher costs in material and input costs they're more than offsetting their input costs so i would not be surprised for margin to either stay stable in this inflationary environment or potentially to even take up why because they can and consumers are willing to pay that makes tesla unique compared to a company like heinz for for ketchup or coca-cola these companies are coming out saying hey we're concerned that we can't raise prices anymore because people are going to stop buying a product tesla's different tesla's like yo we're going to raise prices and people are still going to buy our product that actually makes tesla stock in my opinion somewhat of an inflation hedge really like that now if you do want to spend about uh eight thousand dollars more to get the model three long range you could get it in about two months just kind of cool uh same thing for the model three performance you're only waiting about two months for the model 3 performance if we go to the model x you know i have the plaid personally i kind of wish i got the model x instead of the s because i i gave my x to my dad so now my dad rides my ex and i kind of miss my ex because it has seven seats but unfortunately if i wanted to get an x normal like i have already it would take me until january 2023 if i wanted to get the plaid it would take until october of 2022 so i'd be waiting quite a bit for a new x which is kind of sad model y another very very popular vehicle along with three here great entry-level cars personally like i i don't recommend spending the money on the x or the s see these are the reasons why i i don't get the invites to events or stuff because i'm i'm just too realistic i don't think it's worth the money to spend all that the premium products i would just get these entry level y's and threes if i you know we're looking at a car personally i probably also wouldn't buy a car right now because i think the inflation is insane right now prices keep going up and stuff but even if i say that people are still going to buy these cars like crazy may and september is cheaper is in september for the model y doesn't surprise me at all the s is usually much more available less people getting the s i get it i really like my s but i miss my axe yeah base model s is july and the plaid is sitting at only four to ten weeks oh so as little as a month that's actually gone up that used to be a little bit less so that's actually bullish to see that that model s plaid went up because in december they were doing get in december which is kind of good okay now i got to make a little note about uh berlin so we're still waiting to hear about that environmental lawsuit regarding water rights but they're uh there there does you know obviously tesla got their permits complete for uh the berlin gigafactory we'll see what happens with water rates hopefully nothing but there's this really cool picture here and this is more just for being silly and then i want to tell you a little bit about my take on the stock again this is such a beautiful picture of their lineup of the tesla what look like model threes here outside the berlin gigafactory i mean absolutely beautifully lined up like this really really really cool and uh that definitely took a pretty chunk of labor here uh i replied the germans would spend the time to line up front bumpers like that that extra labor cost will hurt margins now i'm i'm being facetious here uh it's a really cool picture but uh it is true the germans would do that and i'm allowed to say that because i am german uh and so if they want me in berlin i could actually go there because i got a german passport anyway i'm not going to get invited so anyway okay the stock look i have to say in terms of tech in my opinion tesla's probably still my safest bet and i know people you know they like to poop on me and say uh you're only good because you invest in tesla at least i know when to invest in tesla and when not to invest in tesla when to sell tests i want to buy a tesla uh yeah maybe i do know tesla you know whatever uh i've done really well lowering my cost basis substantially on tesla i mean probably in the neighborhood of 20 25 uh which is is absolutely amazing uh probably more and uh i've been buying on the larger dips here the uh thing that i like about tesla so much compared to the other semiconductor manufacturers or potentially other tech plays is i believe that a tesla has the substantial negotiating clout to actually get the products that they need first and unfortunately that comes at a little bit of the downside to like end phase i think tesla is more likely to get batteries before end phase which end phase batteries are a big profit driver for them right so i really like entas but i don't think they have the clout that tesla does tesla's got the clout i also think that the semiconductor manufacturers like nvidia i think the omniverse is a little over hyped i think their self-driving is nowhere near the capability of teslas because they're obviously working in the automotive space as well it i think that it's really going to take the crypto economy or prices crypto prices running back up to really see the semiconductors move again and that makes me a little bit more bullish therefore on tesla so that doesn't mean i'm not investing in things like nvidia i get my eyes on taiwan semiconductors but i will say it just always goes back to good old tesla so i'm happy about tesla not so happy about them firing ai addict if he ever wants to come on the channel hit me up sliding those dm's thanks so much for watching folks and uh we'll see in the next one goodbye
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