저자: Kevin · 외국인
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나스닥이 연초 대비 20% 하락해 약세장 진입. 인플레이션·Fed 금리인상·우크라이나 전쟁 등 공포가 가격에 상당 부분 반영됐다고 보고, 3월 16일 FOMC 전후 공포 정점 가능성 언급. 나스닥 0% 피보나치 지지에서 삼중바닥 형성, 대다수 악재는 호재 여지 있다는 주장. 3월 16~27일 매도 시점, 3월 14~16일 매수 시점을 제시하며 자신의 판단은 틀릴 수 있다고 단서 부여.
다듬은 글
well folks it is official the nasdaq is down 20.79 year-to-date we are officially in a nasdaq bear market and the question now is this is the bottom is this time to buy the dip or is this just the beginning i mean if we compare now on logarithmic charts the decline of 20 all the way back to the decline that we saw at the beginning of the dot-com bubble we saw the dot-com bubble ended up having another 60 to go think about it dot com bubble tech indices down that is the nasdaq down at 80 percent we're down just 20 now on the nasdaq so who's to say there isn't more pain ahead i mean after all we fell 20 in 2018 simply because the federal reserve was raising rates and it took them u-turning on raising rates to flip the script we've got a few more levels of uncertainty at this point so how could now potentially be a bottom or is it potentially a bottom well to try to evaluate whether or not we're near a bottom i think it's very helpful to look at the levels of fear in the economy and our geopolitical environment and then try to determine is it possible for fear to get worse from here or can fear get better from here and this is something for each of us to evaluate so let's take a look at this keep in mind every day when i start thinking about these sorts of thoughts i always have conversations with you and my course member live streams give you insight into exactly what my thoughts are in terms of what i'm doing with my portfolio take a look at those programs linked down below there's a coupon code expiring on the 25th which is only a few days away and take a look at that but for now let's get started with this take a look at this so in 2021 these were roughly the fears that we had higher inflation for longer and the fed rate liftoff this is where we feared that oh my gosh we're gonna get 2018 and if we get 2018 markets could fall 20 percent oh no okay well now we're down 20 percent but we have way more than just these fears take a look at the list of fears that we have right now oil somewhere between 100 to 120 per barrel yeah it's down today great 105 100 608 dollars per barrel doesn't really matter but the spike in energy costs from the 90s and the low or the high 80s where we had been is going to lead to inflationary panic right this is suggesting that inflation might end up hitting eight nine maybe even 10 percent next month when we look back to march and see what inflation was actually like in march and we know these numbers are way underestimated anyway now the market's also pricing in some degree of nuclear conflict or conflict with nato now i think this is probably less than 10 because the i think the odds of this are quite low but the market will price some degree of this sort of fear in the market always likes to price in as much as it can and just because something like well i guess the way to say this is things aren't binary right it's not like okay nuclear war is going to happen okay today it's not and then the market just flip-flops back and forth it's much more like a gradient uh and so as percentages change we see markets move right this is why when we go from maybe a 20 chance of a recession to a 40 chance of recession we're likely to see some red in the market and that's approximately i'd say where where we sit somewhere now still less likely that we're actually going to have a recession uh then then it is likely that we'll have a recession now i know this is a little bit of a change from my pov i previously had these flipped but that's because i believed that the federal reserve was going to rug pull us this summer but they've already telegraphed that they would not rug pull us in fact not only are they telegraphing to us that they're not planning on drug pulling us but they're telegraphing to us the memory of first of all fate flexible average inflation targeting and what did jerome powell just tell us he just told us that hey you know our current target of inflation is two percent which means if inflation is let's just say as an extreme uh zero percent for a while uh like i don't know five years and uh ten percent for one year maybe it'll average out to two percent right just as an example okay that didn't do the perfect math on that but what's more important here is what jay powell just said and he said hey you know remember we still have flexible average inflation targeting and while he was in congress just a couple weeks ago what did he tell us he told us we might end up having to move our inflation target up that might imply three percent or two and a half percent or maybe three and a half percent right and that is a way of telegraphing hey we're not we're not planning on rug pulling the market we're going to go slow with our 25 basis point rate hikes but we're going to do them consistently i think the market right now is pricing in about 7 25 basis point hikes i think up to 17 realistically are possible that would bring us to about 4.25 percent uh i wouldn't be surprised to see that uh though you know if the fed u-turns at any point between let's say hike five and hike 17 that would be quite bullish for the market market right now appears to be pricing and some global gdp declined then of course wow this is kind of embarrassing but the uh the apple device here uh auto-corrected shenzhen china to uh that but anyway we've got these new coveted lockdowns uh in in parts of china especially the tech hub within china shenzhen and and these are creating substantial supply chain fears again that's just news over the last 24 hours so could be one of the reasons we saw pain in the market today of course elon musk on twitter he didn't respond directly to me but he asked what did everybody think about inflation and i'm not trying to pat myself on the back at all but i replied with my inflation expectations which you can follow me on twitter if you don't yet at real meat kevin but anyway in addition to replying with sort of my expectations for inflation i i also replied and said hey can we get your opinion too that is do you see any improvement in supply chains and elon musk replied to himself that more broadly things actually seemed like they were getting worse at tesla and spacex not better this is all before he challenged putin to a fight but that's that's a different thing uh we've now seen the 10-year treasury yield spike uh it's actually i mean last just about a week and a half ago is 1.7 our previous peak was about 2 i shorted treasuries at about 1.89 and basically the higher these go the more money my short makes and now they've gone up to 2.14 they've hit a record so at least my shorts doing well on treasuries some of my lungs didn't like today but that's okay i bought a little bit today but i'll talk to you about why uh so 2.1 percent we're actually 2.14 now here after hours on the 10-year and then of course this this fear about consumer spending consumer sentiment declining right so all of these things are really built into the fear perspective that we have right now and it's so wild because if we compare this to 2021 there is very little reason to be fearful in fact if you go back to the fear of let's just say 2020 here for example what was the fear that we had in 2020 uh well the second wave right you remember that the second wave fear or the election drama why did we buy the dip like crazy during these times well we did because the fed was our friend this was very clear the fed was our friend so it was easy to buy the dip then now the the fed has essentially no longer become our friend they kind of stopped being our friend somewhere in 2021 and that's when we started getting a little bit more fearful about how higher inflation for longer and the fed rate left off but now we have all this there is a lot of fear priced into the market right now and so now there are questions over is it possible that this could be a bottom is it possible that we're we're you know now is the time to buy the dip and there are a few things to look at first of all i want to look at one quick technical here where we'll look at a couple technicals and then i want to tell you a little bit more about my thesis so keep kevin up right here so first of all take a look at this you got a triple bottom here on the qqq on the zero percent fibonacci line now uh if you saw my video last week you know that i've moved the fibonacci down from uh where it was at about 320 to about 3 18 5.
and i moved that down when we hit this bottom right here in about 3 8 when we had about the start of our double bottom so i did slide the fib down just slightly here just to update that accuracy and i always like to give you updates when i move the lines otherwise i don't move them we did fall slightly below that but that's okay you can you can oftentimes extend below the fibs just like over here but we did close above that fib we closed about 321 is where we're trading for right now and after hours but closed approximately right at the fib and so what's incredible about this is we have now tested this zero percent fibonacci on the nasdaq three times okay good uh we we haven't really seen triple dips on the nasdaq here at the same level uh of these sorts of extremes and in my opinion these sort of longer candle wicks are a little bit of a sign of potential potentially large margin calls happening in the industry that is you know people are waking up this morning to margin calls they're getting liquidated and and they're forced to sell this is why you do not want to be in margin in this environment right and we're going to talk about my expectations as well here but quickly look at the qq or the sorry the spy here the spy here closed at 417 which is just fractionally below my 420 zero percent fib and look at that you're almost triple bottoming here as well i think if my fib was about 20 percent sorry 20 cents lower here actually probably a little bit more more like 60 70 cents slower then then we'd be right under these candles right here minus the wicks which i think these wicks are really margin liquidations here but you're seeing a very similar triple kind of bottom here i personally think when we compare these double you know two sets of triple bottoms the spy and the qqq to this level of peak fear we have there's this potential that is the market maybe done pricing in fear that is have we fully priced in all of this fear and see this is where a lot of folks say no way how could we price in all of the fear kevin when we have the feb the fed meeting on march uh 16th it's it's actually on the 15th is when it starts tomorrow it just ends on the 16th but so we generally say the 16th because that's when we hear about it and in my opinion and i said this in january i think it's very convenient for people to forget this because they just like to read titles like there was somebody who had a really good uh tweet on on twitter they said you may want to go watch kevin's videos instead of just reading the titles no different than a karen on twitter you're trained by the headlines shout out to babbage thanks i was nailed it but see when i sold in january i made it very clear that i believed we would hit a level of peak fear before the federal reserve meeting of march 16th and that i wanted to buy back in before march 16th because i believe that this is when we would get peak fear and so this is where i try to challenge myself because i could also be wrong right and i try to ask myself how can we get more bad news we can because we can't look for black swans because you can't see them right we have no idea what a black swan could be there could easily be another black swan i mean look at it this way in 2021 were we anticipating war with russia were we anticipating an oil price shock to 130 you know we're re-anticipating some of the the madness uh that we have now no of course not were we expecting that we were going to get omicron that was going to mostly remove uh kovid from from our society with the exception of in china where we have a lot of supply chains and reliance on supply no of course not right so there's absolutely the likelihood that there are a lot of bad news things that just are not priced in yet because we're not aware of them yet that's fine that's possible but if we look at these items here i'm not sure that these items by themselves can get substantially worse in fact i believe that these items are likely to get better before they get worse for example i do not believe that the federal reserve is going to rug pull us and they're going to make that crystal clear on this march 16th meeting watch my video yesterday when i broke down uh it's i think it's called watch before wednesday urgent or whatever very important video about the summary of economic projections that is going to be a critical catalyst for this market you really want to understand that video because when that summary of economic projections comes out you might want to sit there ready to trade depending on you know what you want to do with your portfolio but we've already started seeing oil come down right not only have we already started seeing oil come down from some of the peaks but look when opec and acidental whatever when these massive oil companies tell you we're not going to drill more oil because we think these high prices are transitory they don't use the word transitory but they literally tell us like we're going to take this extra money from selling oil at higher prices and we're going to pay down debt and we're going to raise cash and then we'll have more cash during the down cycles when the ceos are telling you they're that that's a sign that they know these oil prices are going to go down they will go down uh so and i've been expecting a commodities collapse that does not mean we are at peak commodity prices don't get me wrong commodity price could still go up but i've been calling for commodities collapse and and you're starting to see some of that i mean even just look at the wheat etf w-e-a-t right you're starting to see that pain that momentum that carried us up over here is starting to go away that's because fear is starting to wane i know that sounds insane because this is what it feels like when you're at peak fear like there's so much freaking fear right now how could somebody tell you we're potentially at peak fear it sounds idiotic right maybe it is but that's why i'm trying to logic this out like i i don't have a crystal ball but i do try my best not only to be as transparent as possible not only on this channel i mean i think i telegraph all my intentions it's so freaking clear but you know when i do all my buys and sells i'm the only person who tells you what i'm doing with all of my freaking portfolio uh of course every single move but still that's nerve-wracking i hate the judgment because i'm just trying to do my best though right anyway so inflation of eight nine maybe ten percent for march spriced in and jerome powell already told us that we're expecting a one-time shock from energy and food prices again look at what we're already seeing with food prices on wheat right i know we've had like a nickel short squeeze and some madness and things like that uh that's okay that's gonna happen those sorts of wild things are going to happen but anyway i would say this really gives us upside it's like it's almost kind of like inflation's so bad that russia and putin are like let's just make it really bad and then it can only go down from there and i bet you that is what the fed is betting on personally i think a 10 fear of nuclear or nato conflict is highly overblown so i think that's an upside as well in fact if you jump over here to the ukraine scenarios i did a video on this this weekend i hope you watch it i think there are five scenarios uh gosh man with that that's the siri here coupon instead of coup anyway with the ukraine scenarios i think there are five scenarios a russia win and then you have a long-term insurgency in ukraine which would be disastrous longer-term sanctions this this would be bad not good a partial russian win and zelensky bk also not ideal for markets a negotiated end crimea georgia ended within six to 14 weeks we're only three weeks into this i think this is absolutely a huge upside potential i don't really think a coup d'etat is likely although putin getting toppled either by the people or the military is possible and in my opinion the only reason putin would get pot toppled is if the military and generals and the people or and or decided putin's lost his mind and they kick him out and they send him to an island like napoleon bonaparte you know to to go live in obscurity and and uh you know solitude uh so i actually i personally think this would be an upside and then i really don't think that this nato war is very likely i don't think that at all uh there's a lot of saber-rattling and there's a reason russia is shooting rpgs at the office building of a nuclear reactor it's to increase their negotiating posture you know that you want to you want to create nuclear fear how about you go over to six reactors in ukraine that are responsible for you know 15 plus percent of the energy output of ukraine and just um start blasting away you know that that's going to create some fears so uh that's terrible but anyway i do think that a negotiated end is highly likely we've seen softness from putin on this we've seen softness from uh zielinski on this okay so uh that uh that in my opinion means we have uh uh upside again on the ukrainian conflict which really i mean i suppose could be another line i'd have been here so i'm just gonna put ukraine in general because you have that the upside on nuclear fears but then you also have just upside on on ukraine in general uh you know there there are other downsides uh i don't think we're gonna see this rug pull uh this 725 basis point hikes or whatever no problem the markets did fine when we had this between 2004 and and 2006 which uh that is literally what jerome powell said we should compare to so he thinks we're more like a 2003 and four than like a 2007 right that's his comparison okay his words uh the or the rate hikes of the early like look when i listen to jerome powell i listen to every word people think i'm crazy but there's a reason he ends up in my dreams at night most of the time nightmares okay this sounds wrong anyway uh the the recession fears okay so so this is tbd right the recession fears could be a problem here uh because they're going to give some some resistance to higher prices what what recession fears are going to do is they're going to prevent us from hitting all-time highs you're not going back to all-time highs probably not this year honestly we're not going back to all-time highs so if you're you're if you're buying call options thinking we're going to go right back to all-time highs i don't think we're going back to all-time highs anytime soon could be wrong don't think so the global gdp decline will also keep this sort of limitation here the the shenzhen lockdowns and the inflation i think there's really only upside from from this because omicron will will fade the chinese gets sick everybody's gotten sick with lomicron let's move on now i know there's some renewed fears about delta cron we've heard these fears before we'll wait and see we'll see uh sure that that's just another potential uh you know black swan but uh it's not something i'm worried about right now but then again you know things could change so we'll keep an eye on that okay so we'll put we'll put a little asterisk down here and we'll put delta c okay kron i'll just write it out okay then uh you know same thing i think upside for elon the logistic issues the treasuries okay this is a problem for the real estate market it does not have to be a further problem for the stock market i i really would not be surprised to see the tenure go all the way up to three percent that's just my expectation and it's not gonna be great for real estate in in the short term it's going to create some headwinds so we'll watch this and then same thing with consumer sentiment this is this is sort of a sideways risk but i think one once some of these other issues go away it's likely actually that consumer sentiment would rebound so i'm actually going to say that has upside okay so in my opinion everything here is either like max fear priced in or has upside unless of course there are some other you know black swans right so the big thing that's stopping people in my opinion from buying today are uh two-folded one margin calls because they haven't been watching me since november telling people to get out of margin literally since november i've been saying close your call options get out of margin or limit your margin because i did go briefly into margin for a short period of time myself stupid don't do that i never got marginal okay two margin uh margin calls are gonna be a big issue number two fat fear seriously uh people who do not pay close attention to jay pal think he's going to come out with another big rug pull maybe he will i don't think so we just heard him two weeks ago in congress lay out his plan the summary of economic projections is going to be interesting because that's not just j pal that's everybody together right but we'll see so in my opinion if you're investing in this market uh or not and you're sort of on the side waiting wondering what to do in my opinion if you are going to sell if you're looking for a sell opportunity my expectation is the time to sell is probably somewhere between march 16 to march 25 27 some something like that right before we get back into labor and cpi and fears like that maybe even the 25th that way you're a week before labor on april 1st and then cpi on april 12th uh i think this is potentially you know saint patty's day kind of excitement time but that also potentially makes the time to buy today uh march 14 to 16 at 11 am my thesis could be very wrong so uh we just wanted to provide you updates on this uh one thing i would say in terms of which stocks that you choose i would really lean probably towards companies that have the best capacity for handling supply chain issues in my opinion those are your bigs all right uh just a quick example there's some other names that i have maybe we'll talk about them in the course uh in the morning probably will uh but just as an example and you can kind of think about this yourself all right so my thoughts wealth i appreciate you watching this a little bit of a longer video but i think lots of good information my goal is to bring you as much value per minute as possible hopefully you agree with that and we'll see in the next one goodbye
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