저자: Kevin · 외국인
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3월 FOMC(16일) 앞두고 9월 SEP(경제전망) 예측치 해석. 실업률은 3.8%로 이미 하락해 연말 3.5% 예상, 금리는 9월 0.3%에서 시장 대비 1.6% 상향 예상, 인플레는 PCE 4.5~5% 예상. 시장은 25bp 인상 거의 확실시하나 중간값 2% 이상이나 GDP 1~2%면 시장 충격 우려. 경기침체 신호와 매파/비둘기파 톤이 관건.
다듬은 글
hey everyone we kevin here this video is going to be quite important for trading in the stock market this week and for longer term investors in terms of what we can expect to happen to the real estate market the longer term stock market should we be in defensives should we be in cash should we be in tech stocks are we gonna get a saint patty's day rally well that's what we're gonna talk about in this video it is worth noting that saint patty's day is the day after the fomc meeting ends the meeting begins on the 15th of march that's this tuesday it ends on the 16th which is this wednesday and this wednesday at 11 a.m california time we will get an fomc statement along with a followed by about a 45-minute press conference wherein jerome powell will be answering questions from the press generally i find the questions from the press are actually a lot better than the questions that we see in congress when jerome powell goes to testify before congress the last time that we heard from jerome powell was about two weeks ago when he did testify before congress and the big things that we learned from him two weeks ago were that he thought this war was a game changer and that obviously there would be inflation that comes from the oil and energy shock but that he expected the adjustments from the oil shock to be sort of a one-time impact to inflation that is something that is not transitory that isn't even necessarily remotely recurring that is more sort of a one-time all right here it is and then it's gone and so what we're going to want to do is break down what we expect for the summary of economic projections and exactly what to look for in terms of how jerome powell's tone changes because it's really going to set the pace for stocks and crypto keep in mind if you want all of the knowledge that i have in investing and you want to join me in the daily live streams that we do every day the market opens up where you can ask me questions directly just to get a different perspectiv there is a coupon code that expires in about two weeks it's linked down below you could use that and the price does go up over time all right folks let's get into the sep so this is the last time that we got an scp now this seems crazy but the last time that we actually got this was december 15th of 2021 they only come out every about uh two to three federal reserve meetings and in january at the fomc meeting in january during the press conference jerome powell said that if he had to go back to december and do his sep again do his sort of projection that he would expect that inflation would actually be a lot higher that he would go back and revise his expectations up for the end of the year and so what this is is basically people like jerome powell and the other folks in on the fed on the federal reserve board they get to write down what they project inflation is going to be by the end of the year the unemployment rate's going to be by the end of the year and what interest rates will be by the end of the year and so the way you can see this here is we're going to go ahead and remove all these annotations from all this junk that we've previously written down and the way you really want to read this is you want to see two things first you want to see the median which is really your middle number it's better than the average for a purpose like this because a really low or really high number could really skew the average a lot so we're going to go with the median numbers here and really we're in 2022.
so median estimate for inflation at the end of the year the unemployment rate at the end of the year and gdp at the end of the year these are some huge numbers and then of course the federal funds rate then what we're also going to be able to see is the difference between their prior projections see previously their projection was september and then to december where we saw these larger increases right so i'm going to write down my expectations here and then we're going to talk a little bit about ranges and some of the other things that we have to pay attention to so the september projection for the fed funds rate said that at the end of 2022 we would have 0.3 as a fed funds rate which is obviously wildly unexpected at this point the market's pricing in as high as about a 2 rate one of the reasons you might see this pull forward is because the unemployment rate has fallen substantially faster than we previously expected it to fall you can see here that we expected the unemployment rate at the end of 2021 to be about 4.3 percent and what's remarkable now is if we just type into google the unemployment right now and we get the bls uh employment statistic we're already at 3.8 and we're at the march reading for employment i'm sorry the february reading for employment since we always look one month back and we're already at 3.8 so we really expect oh the pen stopped working we really expect by the end of the year 3.5 should be a no-brainer and when we move up the expectations of how quickly the unemployment rate goes down then another thing that we can do is we could start moving up how quickly we expect to move rates up so basically just take the items from this column and say okay instead of expecting these numbers by the end of 2023 we're going to move them up because unemployment's going down so much faster we're just going to move the items from this column over since everything's happening about a year earlier so i would not be surprised to see the fed funds rate come in at about 1.6 for the median now i really like the range the central tendency range over here this just shows you the low and high uh oh sorry not the central tendency we're going to go over here this is the range that we want here's the range for 2022 and so the previous range was about 0.4 to 1.1 i would expect to see this be somewhere between 1.4 to potentially as high as 2.3 and that's going to give us sort of that midpoint of about maybe 1 6 to 1 8 depending because median is not going to be average right so there could be more people on the lower side but i do think there'll be a few hawks that'll really show this higher like 2.3 and we'll talk a little bit about what happens if we get some worst case scenarios here as well now for inflation they like to use pce which generally comes in a little bit lower than cpi which you'd think cpi's already like manipulated to the downside yeah this comes in even lower but that's okay obviously pce we're just going to focus here on the oh headline number here of pc it's not going to be 2.6 everybody knows it's not going to be 2.6 i personally would expect and we're not even going to move this over one year because we're going to be way higher we've got two forms of inflation now we've got the old transitory inflation which has become a lot more persistent those are your supply chain issues and then you have the new transitory inflation which is sort of your oil price shock and your food commodity price shock uh nickel palladium wheat oil natural gas all of these things these are going to have as jerome powell put it a quote-unquote one-time price shock unfortunately one-time price shocks can take about a year to actually disappear so we're going to be paying a lot of attention to because the one-time price shocks will just keep showing up for a year until and that's why you're always going to look for those month-over-month inflection points to the downside on inflation but anyway i would expect this to come in substantially higher uh it's probably going to be closer to five percent but i wouldn't be surprised if the fed comes in here and says something like 4.5 remember to always mute your phone before you end up filming a video because that gets quite annoying but anyway then the unemployment rate wouldn't be surprised to actually see them leave this at about three and a half percent because you can see here their longer run goal is three and a half percent and so this is sort of in in their minds their definition of maximum employment and this is really just a way of them saying we're already good we've already essentially achieved our goals sitting at 3.8 we're probably going to go down to 3.5 way before the end of 2022 this will say 3.5 across the board unemployment's checked remember their dual mandate mandate number one is maximum employment that's already been achieved mandate number two is stable prices that has not been achieved and so that's why we're going to be working on inflation here the issue is to deal with inflation you've got to raise rates and everybody's worried about the potential for a rug pull that is markets getting paul vulcard and all of a sudden uh seeing a substantial increase in interest rates much faster than expected which could lead to shocks in the mortgage market and shocks in the stock market and lead to substantially more valuation compression there's some real potential upside or sorry downside risks to markets and upside risks to inflation okay good so these are what we're going to be looking for on the scp my belief is if we end up seeing something substantially higher than these numbers that i wrote here on the sep the market's going to be very sad now right now the market is pricing in about a 95 chance of a 25 basis point hike so it pretty much means we're almost guaranteed to get a 25 basis point hike the fed could shock the market if they do something other than 25 basis points it would be really unexpected and markets would react if they kept things at zero i think markets would rally although there'd also be a weird head scratching here that the fed's just kicking the can down the road and if they went into the 50 basis point that would be a problem that markets would not be very happy about that because markets aren't expecting that but the fed doesn't like to do things that shock the market though the fed will do things that lead the market to go down they just don't want to do that in a way that would shock the market that's an important distinction there it's okay for the fed if prices go down because that actually de-risks markets it's bad when they do so as a rug pull and that's what the market's trying to expect so for example if we go over to may we're only expecting a quarter basis point hike we go to uh this is for the uh sorry that's march 16th same thing for may expecting a quarter basis point hike same thing over here expecting a quarter basis point hike and basically the market's pricing in a quarter point all the way until july where there's a little bit of a greater chance that the fed actually comes in and it potentially says hey you know what we're gonna do nothing and we're gonna pause on rate hikes is actually getting priced in right here do zero but of course the majority here is suggesting that quarter basis point hike and then you go a little further and you see another quarter basis point height so really the market is not pricing in any kind of 50 basis point hike so if we go to the end of the year you can see the market thinks we're going to end the year with a 42 chance somewhere around 1.5 to 1.75 right now we're technically at 0 to 0.25 so generally you always read the first number is the trick for this well if the market says 1.5 is the most likely scenario maybe slightly edging on the higher side you know it's kind of funny it kind of aligns with exactly what i wrote here and you might not believe me but i actually wrote 1.6 before i looked at the rate futures so i'm kind of glad that we're in alignment i like to see that see i like to write down my assumptions first and what i believe based on all of my other research is going to be likely and then i can compare to other data so that way if i'm completely off i can look and go okay why but this is perfect alignment here and i kind of expect that based on what i see in the market and the research that i do so anyway 1.6 which remember if you want to talk to me about the research that i do join those live streams every day the market opens up we do a solid 45-minute q a live stream we talk real estate stocks youtube channel growth we talk about everything anything you want to talk about we talk about it's great uh and use that coupon code down below you can also bundle up for the other programs okay so now uh 1.6 on the fed funds so this is what the market's expecting this is what i'm expecting everybody's expecting maybe 1.6 towards the end of the year so where does this become a problem well i'll show you where this becomes a problem this becomes a problem if the federal reserve ends up suggesting something other than this if we end up getting a median read of 2 or even worse like 2.25 i would expect the market is going to react very negatively the market is not in my opinion going to react to oh they did a 25 basis point hike we already know they're gonna do that that's old news this is what's going to matter because this is going to forecast how many more hikes we have ahead now how many meetings do we actually have left this year well you've got the march meeting but that's going to be done that's going to be your first 25 basis points then you've got may june july september november and december so you got six meetings left if they did a 25 basis point hike at every single one of those meetings that uh in addition to to this point first point two five that would put us around 1.75 this is where we would end up the year 1.75 to a range of 2 right this is where we'd end up this would be kind of in line as well so worst case scenario if this ends up being a 1.7 i don't think it's going to be a big deal but if it's anything like a 2 on the low side that is the first number of the range 2 percent to 2.25 that's going to scare folks and i think folks are going to look at the median here because remember this is the vote this is not down to one person it's a vote the range is going to matter you know if we saw something like two percent to three percent in the range for 2022 that's going to freak markets out markets aren't going to like that though sometimes the federal reserve likes to plant seeds here that they plan on being more aggressive as a way to kind of like start bursting the bubble to the market so this is a way that they can communicate their potential expectations and then try to get the market to align so you could see a very quick market movement if we did get it something like this i would say this right here would would be concerning this would be a sign that the federal reserve is losing faith that they can actually control inflation right now they're playing a game of patience where they do believe that if they're patient enough they're going to end up seeing the first supply chain transitory inflation fall and then this energy and food shock inflation eventually also fall especially once the crisis in ukraine ends which knock on wood is hopefully very soon now this inflation reading number right here and again we're assuming this is going to be 3.5 if this goes up then it starts making you wonder like hey is the fed expecting recessionary signals which obviously they could also signal here now last time they raised gdp from three point eight percent to four percent as a forecast it would not shock me at all for the federal reserve because of the war and the price and everything to end up saying hey we expect let's say three percent growth by the end of the year this would not shock me at all if this ends up coming in with something like a one percent which i don't think but if they end up putting one percent here for growth and then they blame war or whatever this is going to be very scary and it's going to be very scary because one percent is so dang close to recession because you get negative through two quarters in a row boom you're in a recession so i don't think this is going to go up uh i don't think it's going to plummet i think maybe three percent is going to be a big adjustment down right from from their previous estimate here of three point eight or four percent some big jump down maybe it ends up coming in at like 3.5 it's i almost certainly expect it to come in less but if it comes in at like a one or two percent markets are absolutely going to lose it so we're going to just going to say the blue line here very very sad if this comes in higher it's a good thing but one to two percent would be very very bad over here uh two to two and a quarter percent would be very very bad and the inflation reading i don't think will matter so terribly much because there's just really a shot in the dark again i expect them to come in at 4.5 if they expect inflation to come in at like seven percent i really don't think they will this is very very unlikely that's going to give market some cause for concern because it's going to be in the fed themselves it's kind of like yeah no we're we're screwed and then the other numbers would would probably align more closely to a one to two percent anyway or two uh to two and a half or two and a quarter percent rate for the fomc so these are going to be things that you want to watch for but there are going to be more things that you want to watch for as well so just as a quick summary you're going to want to watch for that gdp prediction how low is it going to go anything with a 1 or 2 in the front bad we're going to want to watch for that not so much the inflation number the unemployment we expect to stay at 3.5 we're going to watch that fomc fed funds rate is it going to come in at 1.6 anything with a 2 in the front it's going to be bad that's not going to be juicy okay so very very important this piece of paper here is going to be critically important to how the market responds much more so than the stupid headline that you're going to see on you know not the bag on cnbc but it's going to be the headline on cbc fed for the first time in four years or whatever hikes rates 25 basis points oh my gosh lift up everybody expects this already news next like there's no news there no news at all okay the next thing that we need to pay attention to uh well there are three little things that we want to pay attention to all right uh and before i hit these things if you don't mind if you haven't checked yet ask yourself why and if you wouldn't mind leave me a comment down below is there something missing that you'd like to see in the programs is it you know would you prefer like uh like a one day sale or you know what what what's stopping you from joining the amazing community that we have for the programs on building your wealth and i'm always thinking about adding content too so you just letting me even know in the comments oh if you had something on this i'd be more interested hey we can make it happen so i'm curious all right so this is what else you want to listen to so number one is the scp the summary of economic projections number two you want to look for the danger of what we call the license to hike so the federal reserve in jerome powell's discussion is probably going to be testing and the way he answers questions and then watching to see how the market responds the basically hey do we have permission to go for essentially like the rug pull right the 50 basis point hike this is going to be very subjective in terms of how we analyze uh the licensed hike if uh if jerome powell suggests hey if uh by july the data doesn't improve then we might have to be more aggressive with our tools that is going to be a very clear license to hike and the market's not gonna like that and that might be reflected in the scp it might not be see because the scp will be their expectations for the end of the year but then jerome powell's also going to give us his forecast he's going to say hey but hey if we're wrong with our expectation then we'll go for a larger hike and then the question is well how high would you ever raise the rates one percent would you ever raise them two percent just to pull vulcarus and get rid of inflation and depending on what he says there will be very large recessionary signals right so then we've got the uh level of dovishness to measure so number one scp number two the license hike number three the level of davishness so the ecb shocked us a little bit they uh tapered their stimulus much faster than expected despite war and despite the fact that we expect a war to affect europe substantially more than it will affect the united states and so when the ecb went hawkish on friday and thursday we saw markets turn substantially more red that was a big deal that was a big problem so the level of dovishness because of war is going to be something to pay attention to from jay pal uh how davis is he because of war how much does war delay his interest in fighting inflation he might suggest hey well you know we're going to delay fighting inflation until essentially the geopolitical concerns are over will actually help reduce consumer demand globally and thanks to the velocity of money we'll see demand go down here in the united states which won't be good for earnings he won't say the part about earnings but but when demand goes down inflation goes down right uh then uh we're going to look at his definition of sort of the two types of inflation does he actually believe that there are two types of inflation that is the transitory supply chain one and then the one-time energy shock one the uh one-time energy shock one is something that we really want to pay attention to so uh you know is drone probably gonna say hey this could lead to lasting inflation that just becomes more perpetual or is this as he's said before a one-time hit and then it's over i don't really expect a lot of talk about cbdc's you know there are a lot of like conspiracy theorists and stuff that are like oh central bank digital currencies are just designed to tell you where you can shop and can't shop and whatever uh that you know i'm not terribly interested in that i think if you don't want to use cbdc don't use it and it's nowhere even close to here central bank digital currencies are i think something we won't see until 2025 certainly not from the federal reserve maybe from china but it'll probably be garbage oh gosh this is why i can't visit china because i say things like that i'm sorry i'm sorry china if you're watching i didn't mean it okay so anyway uh look it's gonna be a big day wednesday uh i'll live stream the meeting because it is such a big day but uh yeah otherwise if you want to talk to me you got questions or in those live streams folks leave me some comments
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