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hey jj here with the out of value thanks for joining me today so today i want to talk about this interview slash conversation between ray dalio and jeremy grantham that happened on may the 9th so around let's say yeah a while ago uh more than a month ago may june and sunny july all right so it was about uh uh it was a one-hour interview and i'm going to try and i'm going to summarize a little bit and comment on a little bit and there's a lot it's kind of fascinating there's a lot there's a lot here to get through and so it might be more than more than one part to this because i want to keep this to 10 minutes less than 10 minutes so that's so i can upload it not only to youtube and spotify and the other podcast networks but also to the likes of linkedin facebook facebook page and also tech talk and please say linkedin and um instagram as well as a lot because they take 10 minute videos now those ones so it's good all right so this is ray daddy on gmo's jeremy grantham on how they're seeing the world right now recorded on the 9th of may as i said so who are they if you don't know they're the founders of bridgewater and gmo they discuss the big risks that they're watching including inflationary pressures political conflict asset bubbles and climate change and what investors can do to protect themselves so big and heavy stuff here and there jeremy grantham as you know has been pretty bearish he thinks it's a big bubble and uh radio thinks similar they've known each other for like 25 years and so let's get on with it what they say is the first question is have they learned a lot from well that because of what i've learned a lot from each other over the decades they say they're both students of history thinking deeply about lessons they can learn from the past and the first question was about the current environment is that similar or different to anything that they've seen in the past and ray said the lessons he learned over time have been important like in 1971 and then repeatedly so what he's learned is surprises happen and he gave the example of then when when nixon severed the relationship between gold and the dollar essentially defaulting that day he thought the market was going down a lot and it went up so he was surprised by that you can never predict what the market's going to do in the short term so he says three big things happening in his lifetime so he talks about the plan he's talked about this before he's written a big a long book he talks about this quite a lot so it's not a secret but but this is kind of summarizing what he thinks is that three big things happen in his lifetime uh and with a bit of search he found five things so he talks about the main points a the amount of uh internal political economic social conflict that's going on right now and the rise of a great power to challenge existing world order you might have seen that in one of his videos and he means china and the geopolitical stuff that's going on right now so the us is becoming less dominant and he says he he's done some research over the past 500 years which was in his book and rise and decline of currencies and their empires was a big theme that he found that the acts of nature had been bigger had the accident nature had had bigger effects than you would think even with the wars even with even with wars not counting warsaw there's droughts floods pandemics and he says climate change will be a factor and he knows that jeremy is pretty big on that so he agrees there and humans capacity to adapt to invent though and the big but the big cycles and events are dominant even though we can adapt so the question was how are the categories playing out right now and he said he says there is simply there's a supply and demand debt and credit that is having an effect of moving into a stagflation environment and the political influence is the most important at the moment and it's which has changed from economics economics have ruled but now the odd ideological rules like uh in terms of the allocation of resources etcetera and he gave the example of it like elon buying twitter or was that like an ed ideological uh think uh situation and political rather than purely economic about free speech and so forth and so then we came to jeremy he said the things there are much more important things to than the stock market right now and ray where he said ray would agree with that going on one thing i've kept going one thing i've kept going in resources and climate change investing so in terms of his investing he's pretty old now but he still keeps you know talking about the market he's a student of bubbles for old times sake he researches investment bubbles over the time he's researched a lot this is unexpectedly the third great investment bubble of my career he says the last and the last 40-50 years it's been the worst year opening for the for the year in the market since 1939 remember this was at the beginning of may so it's got worse since then uh nasdaq and russell 2000s are in bear markets and the s p 500 wasn't quite there but but it has been uh since it's getting to be interesting he says and bitcoin down to with arc back to 2018 levels below the this entire bubble event and i mentioned the meme stocks amc and others down 75 from their peak and other meme stocks down it's said it's the real mccoy the real bubble playing pretty close playing out pretty close to the 2000 like the 2000 bust and he considered himself a serious amateur historian of bubbles and markets and the focus has been on four great the four great bubbles characterized characterized by severe weird over-optimism which that which is actually really rare in markets he says and so it's been characterized by an accelerated move to the upside and a weird deviation on the on the upside of the blue chips going up and the risky stocks going down so that has happened in these in a few bubbles only a few in a rare he said they're like hits like hen's teeth when that happens and it happened in 1929 it happened in 2000 and it happened last year where the s p kept going up through september 2000 growing growth going down 50 percent in that time on the internet oh sorry that in 2000 growth went up 50 going sorry let me start it again you can get the s p kept going up through through to september 2000 even though the bubble started popping in march and the growth uh going down 50 in that time internet going down 60 60 or 70 percent by then and it was spectacular and he said we saw him we saw a handsome deviation last year between the s p 500 rising and the russell 2000 dropping so there was this 20 25 point spread on the upside that for me was a pretty good indicator it describes the i've got to keep dancing because the music is is still playing and he haven't heard him describe this before but he said that the financial sector is playing is playing up to and over the edge dancing over the edge what causes the indicator above is transferring from riskier stocks to like the coca-colas the blue chips and in that case dancing right to the edge and that's what exactly what happened we saw this last year he said and by this year it was clear it was the real mccoy of a bubble um he said he wrote a piece which i read i've read both of these articles he's about to say he said i i uh i wrote this piece a year ago waiting for the last dance and this january let the rumpus let the wild rumpus begin so he's waiting for it as the rescue stocks started to collapse and then waiting for and then then this year it was it was actually happening with the big companies which it did started in november we're in it now and it's unwinding he says i believe the declines will be very substantial and how it races how are the trends you or the question was how the trends you and jeremy been describing in the last but how will they play out in the next five to ten years and i'll leave that because we're coming up to the 10 minutes and i found that fascinating what jeremy but jeremy grantham has sort of said about bubbles and he has i've done a number of podcasts about what he's predicted and it's it's playing out even though people see the broken clock the usual things but he has seemed to have got this one right how it's unfolding this time um anyway so if you found any value in this and you want to hear the next one part two i'll do uh like and subscribe on youtube spotify all those other places i mentioned at the beginning and on and twitter of course at the art of value join me there and uh we'll talk more about this next time okay thanks see you next
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