저자: JJ · 외국인
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결론: 하워드 막스 메모 'Bull Market Rhymes'를 요약하며 강세장 심리·신기술 과열·버블 붕괴 패턴이 반복된다고 경고하는 교육 영상이며, 특정 자산의 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 메모의 핵심 주장: 2020년 강세장에서 스팩(SPAC)이 무분별하게 생겨났고, 인수 후 평균 주가가 공모가 10달러 대비 5.25달러 수준으로 떨어졌다는 점을 들어 검증되지 않은 신기술을 쉽게 받아들이는 투자자 심리를 지적. 로빈후드 등 무수수료 거래 확산, 코로나 이후 스티뮬러스 체크, 레딧 등 온라인 커뮤니티 확산으로 초보 개인투자자가 대거 유입되어 기술주·밈주식이 급등했다고 설명. 비트코인은 2021년 약 5천달러에서 6만8천달러까지 올랐다가 영상 기준 약 3만 달러 수준으로 하락했다고 언급하며, 일부 코인은 0으로 떨어졌다고 설명. 강세장 말기에는 신중함과 규율이 사라지고 '이번엔 다르다'는 믿음이 확산되며, 가치투자자는 공포 속에서 기회를 찾아야 한다는 버핏식 원칙을 강조. FANG 등 대형 기술주에 자금이 쏠렸고, 2020~2021년 고성장 펀드들이 이후 큰 폭의 손실을 봤다는 사례(펀드 수익률 등)를 제시. 페이팔·코인베이스·세일즈포스·넷플릭스·우버·줌 등 주요 혁신주가 고점 대비 40~90% 하락한 사례를 나열하며, 이는 기본적 요인보다 심리 요인이 주도했고 반복될 것이라고 주장. 결론적으로 시장 움직임은 가격이 극단(과열 또는 침체)에 있을 때 상대적으로 예측 가능성이 높다는 메시지. 영상 촬영 시점(2022년 6월) 기준 나스닥·러셀2000이 약세장 영역이었다고 언급. ※ 진행자는 특정 종목 매수·매도 권유 없이 교육 목적임을 명시.
다듬은 글
hey jj here with the art of value this is part two of talking about summarizing the howard marks memo by bull market rhymes i put the first few seconds of this on twitter so click the links to go to the full versions and where we left off was uh right in the middle of the bull market of 2020 with he's talking about the ipos going crazy and uh spax starting to to go to take off so he talks he says but the lack of skepticism surrounding the relatively untested innovation fueled by bull market psychology allowed many specs to be created by competent and incompetent organizers alike and who would be highly paid for pulling off an acquisition any acquisition today the average spec that that despacked since 2020 by by completing an acquisition in each case with the approval of its investors is selling for five only 525 versus which is the issue price of ten dollars this is a good example of a new thing that turned out to be less dependable than investors than investors who fell once again for the foot for a can't lose silver bullet had thoughts specs defenders uh defend had thought spaks defenders argue that these vehicles are just an alternative way to take companies public but the potential usefulness isn't my concern i'm focused on how readily investors embrace and untested innovation in hot times another dynamic involving novel factors deserves mention since it exemplifies the way the new thing can contribute to bull markets i'll put a link to this memo by the way in the show notes so you can read the whole thing if you want this is just a summary it's like 13 pages long so the new thinking contributable markets robin hood uh her old friend robin hood markets robin hood markets began offering commission free trading and stocks etfs and cryptocurrencies in the years before the pandemic uh people started to play the co the stock market as casino and sports events were closed for betting generous stimulus checks were sent to millions who had who had had lost their jobs meaning many people saw their disposable income rise during that time bulletin boards like reddit turned investing into social activity for people shut at home as a result large numbers of novice retails retail investors were recruited online many of whom lacked the experience needed to know what constitutes investment merit newcomers were stirred by a popular cult figure who said stocks only go up okay uh i don't know i think one person said that it just turned into a meme didn't it but was it on reddit i don't know who actually invented that as a result many tech or maybe it was uh sparsely perhaps as a result many tech and meme stocks soared the final element worth discussing this cryptocurrency proponents of bitcoin for example cite its variety of uses as well as the limited supply skeptics on the other hand point to bitcoin's lack of cash flow and intrinsic value and thus the impossibility of assigning fair value regardless of which side you will turn out to be right but corn satisfies some of the characteristics of a bull market of a bull market beneficiary it's relatively new although it's been around for about 14 years it's been only on most people's continent consciousness for the only five it enjoyed a dramatic price spike rising from five thousand dollars to sixty eight thousand dollars in 2021 of course it's back to around 30 at the moment so yeah that's had a big had a big drop along with the rest of the innovation stocks and it's certainly something that uh prior prior generations do not have the insight to appreciate that was part of the factor if you're old you can't you don't understand it in all these regards it's perfectly satisfies galbraith's description of something hailed by a new often youthful and always supremely self-confident generation as a brilliantly innovative discovery in the financial world bitcoin is off is up a little more than half from its 2021 high he says but others among the thousands of cryptocurrencies that have been created have declined much more you're thinking of luna here uh some have gone to zero the striking performance of the bangs tech stocks generally specs meme stocks and cryptocurrencies in 2020 reinforce the craze for them and added to the investors general optimism it's hard to imagine a full-throated bull market arising in the absence of something that's never been seen or heard before the new new thing and the belief that this time is different uh shining examples of recurring bull market themes so the new new thing is actually the book that's sitting on my bookshelf um what was it was coined for the for the dot-com boom the new new thing which i was talking about the rise of uh netscape and then the stocks in the uh com stocks it's uh written by the same guys the big short what's his name can't remember his name right now but i think it was the race to the bottom another bull market theme that rhymes from cycle recycle is that this is the deleterious impact of bull market trends on the quality on the quality of investors decision making in short when burning optimism takes over from a level-headedness asset prices rise greed grows regrows greed grows relative to fear fear fear of missing out replaces fear of losing money risk aversion and caution evaporate so fear of missing out fomo was a huge thing in 2020 for sure yolo and fomo you only live once fomo yoloing into meme stocks etc so since since i'm he says since i'm relying on on time-warner investment outages it's appropriate at the point to at this point to invoke the one i consider the great the greatest regarding investor behavior over cycles what the wise man does in the beginning the fool does in the end people who buy it stage one of the bull market in those three stages when prices are low because of prevailing pessimism such as during the global financial crisis and in the early days of the dakota 19 pandemic in 2020 so in the depths of that march decline have the potential to earn high prospective returns with little risk the main prerequisites are money to spend and the nerve to spend it so we're getting into value investing territory here it's been maximum fears around uh instead of when momentum has gone sky high but when bull markets heat up and good returns encourage investors optimism the traits that are rewarded are eagerness credulousness and risk-taking and threats in the three stages of the bull market new entrants by aggressively keeping it a lot for a while cautions caution selectivity and discipline go out the window just when the when when they're needed the most uh particularly noteworthy is the fact that investors who are in a good mood are being rewarded for risk tolerance typically ceases to practice discernment seeks to practice discernment regarding investment opportunities not only do investors consider it a certainty that more examples of the new thing will succeed but eventually they conclude that everything in that sector will do well so differentiating is unnecessary so uh you know that reminds me of the ev sector where everything a lot of companies went public everything sky high on the tail of tesla's kind of success and that's still going on if you think of reviewing i think just personally i think riven was one of the biggest bubble stocks in history that i can ever think of there was way over 100 billion dollars and they hadn't really produced a production car yet i mean it's unbelievable unbelievable and that's when tesla was over a trillion dollars i think around it was around november it was november 2021 that which lasted longer than most innovation stocks which the peak was early february 20 2021 so he says because of all the above the term bull market psychology isn't a positive it connotes carefree behavior and a high risk high and a high level of risk tolerance and investors should find it worrisome not encouraging as warren buffett said so he's a student of warren buffett too well he's not that much well i suppose he's quite a lot younger but it's in his 90s now as warren buffett puts it the less prudence with which and others conduct their affairs the greater the prudence uh with which we should conduct our own affairs the investors investors have to know when the bull market psychology as an ascendance and apply the required caution so that's the opposite when the bull markets keep going it's less caution everything goes up stocks only stocks and to go up etc so then the next section is the pendulum swings bull markets don't arise out of thin air the winner winners in each bull market are winners for the simple reason that they that a grain of truth underlies their gains however the bullishness i've described above tends to exaggerate the merits and pushes security prices to levels that are excessive and thus vulnerable and the upward swing doesn't last forever what happens then what happens full markets don't treat all sectors the same in bull markets as i discussed earlier optimism coalesces most powerfully around certain groups of securities such as the new thing or super stocks so we're talking about the things there these the the fang stocks these these rise the most become emblematic of the of the bull in this period and attract further buying the media pays these stocks the most attention extending the process in 20 20 to 21 the fat the fang f-a-a-m-g-s not fang fang he's talking about microsoft so facebook apple amazon microsoft and google and other tech stocks were the best examples of this phenomenon it goes without saying but i'll say it anyway that investors holding these large amounts of these things that lead in each bull market do very well and the fund managers are smart enough and lucky enough to uh to be dedicated exclusively to those things report the highest returns while optimism prevails and shock and show up on the front page of newspapers on cable tv shows yep the finance media was full was interviewing these you know these high flying managers and stocks people associated with these stocks all through 2020 in the past i've said other businesses other i've said our businesses full of people who got famous for being right once in a row that can go double for fund managers who are smart or lucky enough to be overweight these sectors that lead in a bull market so we you know he's not saying it but what immediately comes to mind is kathy wood and ark there right and also tiger tiger globals had a big similar big hits however the stocks rise the most in the year in the the stocks that rise the most in the up years often experienced the greatest declines in down years which is happening this year stocks funds some down so here gives an example one tech fund raised 157 percent in 2020 moving from obscurity to fame is this arc i think it might be but it lost 23 percent in 22 and 23 in 20 20 21 and it's down another 50 percent and it's down over 70 at the moment uh 100 invested in in 2019 was worth 257 a year later but that's down to 85 today talks about another fund and he talks about another fund a third fund was up starting 291 in year one but it fell 21 60 and 61 in three years following 100 invested in the beginning of this four year period was worth 43 dollars of course he's not talking about this he's it sounds like this later period but he said of course it's the four years there are no results at site it's from 1999 to 2002 when the last tech bubble inflated and collapsed i i include them only as a reminder that the current performance pattern is a recurrence so it's similar to the dot com bubbly saying earlier i mentioned robert hood the originator of commission free trading it epitomized the role of digital in 2021 uh bull market robin hood went public in in july 2021 at 38 and over the next week it went shot up to 85 dollars today it's ten dollars an 88 drop from the high in less than a year okay so let's let's jump a bit he talks he talks about this bubble when he's talking about there are here are the declines from the top with some well-known tech digital innovation stocks that i that i picked at random or not does not particularly random but i guess so maybe they are a few there are a few here that when they were at their peak you would have kicked yourself for not having bought so paypal down 57 beyond me down 63 coin base 74 sales force 37 carvana 86 docusign 50 modulus 46 netflix 69 shopify uh spotify 54.
i own spotify i think it's good value right now but that's just my opinion and just not not advice at all uber down 44 zoom down 51 the average down 59 he said so the lessons coming to the end here so you summarize it as always for students of investing what matters most isn't what events transpired in a given period of time but what we can learn from these events and there's a lot to be learned from the trends of 20 20 21 uh that rhymed with those of previous cycles and bull markets okay here we go optimism builds around the things that are going to protect spectacularly well it sure did 2020 optimism built it was building before that with things like tesla this is not down as much as the other ones of course all still but around the doing spectacular well the impact is strongest when the upswing arises from a particularly depressed base in terms of psychology and process so free space of pandemic we could say with that parabolic rise after that bull market psychology is accompanied by a lack of worry and a high level of risk tolerance and thus highly aggressive behavior risk bearing is rewarded and the need for thorough diligence is ignored high return high returns reinforce belief in the new the unlikely and the optimistic when the crowd becomes convinced of the things of the things merit they tend to conclude there's no price too high and that did happen it absolutely did happen in 2020 when people said to me on online all the time that multiples the price doesn't matter the multiples don't matter or not that they don't matter it's just that 50 times sales or more was okay was fine because reasons these these influence cool these influences cool eventually and they are and they and prices have reached unsustainable levels elevated markets are vulnerable to exogenous events like russia's invasion of ukraine this is the lesson to remember the the assets that rose the most and the investors who who overweighted them often experienced painful reversals which is what's happening some of those those innovation stocks tech stocks down 50 60 70 80 90 right now these are themes i've seen play out he says out numerous times during my career which is over 50 years long i think none of these none of them relates exclusively to fundamental developments rather their causes are largely psychological and the way psychology works is is unlikely to change that's why i'm sure that as long as humans are involved in the investment process we'll see them re-occur time and time again and as a reminder since the major since the major ups and downs of that market are primarily driven by psychology it's clear that market movements can only be can only be predicted if ever when prices are at absurd highs or lows now that's an interesting point they it's more predictable when they when they're extreme to at either side because they probably will go up or down these are things up uh okay that's it so that's uh i found that memo really good talking about the last few years and the reasons behind it and investor psychology huge i mean there are algorithms there are computers trading but psychology still matters and it becomes the most predictable when it's at as an asset extreme like uh in 20 was in 2020 and what happened there at the at the lows so we're in a bear market feels like a bear market even though the s p is not is down around 20 not even 20 but of course in nasdaq and russell 2000 all in bear market territory and things are really pessimistic and a lot of those people who were you know stocks only go up and uh you know could see only could see blue sky ahead uh very quiet now all right thanks uh if you if you found any value in this subscribe on youtube and spotify and everywhere else that has audio those are those to a video join me at the other value on twitter and i will see you next time
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