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Let's talk about Tesla. Okay. What was it more than two years ago? You're at zone. You you pitched the converts. Converts. Yeah. Where are you with those today? And then I want to talk to you more broadly about that company. So if you if if you if you take a step back, right? Um if I asked you to sort of, you know, um attempt to drive a golf ball off the pier here into um a teacup and gave you a million tries, I suspect that in a million times you would not be able to do it.
Um, but if you then took somebody else and they were able to do it nine times out of 10, you'd say, "Wow, that person is a great golfer." The analogy that I would make is Elon basically did that equivalent. He was able to send a rocket into space, do all kinds of interesting, enormously productive, useful things for the world while in space, and then come back down and land on a boat in the middle of the ocean.
the kind of technical sophistication that he has in his mind that he's been able to apply across his companies is second to none quite honestly. So when we looked at Tesla, what we thought was a company at an inflection point that was as close to a its version of an iPhone moment. And what I mean by that is a company that had been growing up, taking risks, and had finally found the mass market product that would unlock an enormous amount of product market fit.
And that was the model 3. And so far, what I would say is he's living up to what he has signed up for, which is to commercialize electrification, to commercialize an incredible user experience at a p price point that is frankly cannibalized its competitors. And what you see in the results, in my opinion, is a company that is now maturing under all of that demand.
And so again, is it the best suited company if you want to drive and observe quarter over quarter precision and performance? No. But if you want to take a step back and take a 3, five year view and say where can I compound my money and particularly with the converts, what's so beautiful is it's downside protected because it sits on top of all the equity and the other debt.
And so if you have any concern that there's liquidity issues or if you have any concerns that the company may have to sell, they get paid first. So to me it was a riskless option on the Edison of our generation. But you weren't you're you're not you weren't necessarily comfortable enough with the story to buy the common stock.
The re the reason is because the common stock is not controlled unfortunately enough by him or the insiders. What it's controlled by are a bunch of vulture-like venture and hedge funds mostly hedge funds who like to prey on that company. If you look at for example the Twitter traffic or if you look at the forum traffic around Tesla, the amount of hyping or underhyping, the amount of sniping is enormous.
All of that signals to me that it is a market that is out of the control of the founders and the executives and firmly in the hands of financial manipulators. My perspective is buy the bonds, you're protected, and allow Elon to execute. Isn't the founder in his actions responsible for a lot of what you're talking about?
Well, all I see, frankly, is that he has tried to execute to the best of his abilities. He puts out aggressive numbers. He tries to meet those numbers. Sometimes he misses those numbers. What would you rather? Often he misses the numbers. But that's okay because in the course of the year or in the course of the 5 years, if you take a 5-year step back and say what is he promised in 2014 to what is he doing in 2019, you'd be ecstatic.
Similarly, if you take a step back and say from 2019 to 2024, let the man do his job, will we be better or worse off as a planet, as a species, as humanity, as consumers, we will be better off? And no one debates his his genius. It's it's lauded. um celebrated. Tesla is back in the headlines and not all of it is good.
From disappointing sales in Europe to a major Wall Street downgrade, yet the stock still has believers. In the next 5 minutes, we break down the winds, the warnings, and what might come next. Stay tuned. Kesla's stock has had a turbulent 2025. Shares are still far below last year's highs. Deliveries and revenue did show some strength, but profitability continues to weaken.
In the last quarter, Tesla reported higher revenue, but profit dropped again, marking the fourth straight quarter of shrinking profits. So, yes, Tesla is still massive, but the fundamentals aren't as strong as they once looked. Revenue is up, but profits are slipping and investors are starting to notice.
The external challenges are stacking up. Europe has been a major trouble spot with recent data showing huge drops in registrations, a 58% fall in France and 49% in Denmark. Even the US is seeing demand cool off with rising inventories and slower sales. Tesla tried cutting prices and releasing cheaper variants, but that's squeezing margins even more.
Cutting prices only helps if demand stays strong, and right now it isn't. But there is at least one bright spot. China. Tesla's Shanghai factory continues to support global volume. And remember, Tesla is not just a car company anymore. Their energy and storage businesses, software services, and long-shot bets like robotics and autonomous driving keep long-term believers excited.
It's the fact that he the way he runs his company. You're you're comfortable with with that. If you're an investor in in Tesla, you're 100% comfortable with the way he is a CEO. Yeah. None of the actions that he's done over the last year uh or so give you pause at all. What? Like what do you mean? Meaning the Model 3 is an incredible car.
I just bought one. It's incredible. I bought it. The funding secured. I mean, what was that? Okay, maybe he stepped out of bounds. My point is you're getting caught up in the window dressing. I'm focusing on the main course. The main course is on the table. The choice for you as a buyer or a seller of that stock is do you want to eat it?
If you get caught up in all of the stuff around the edges, maybe he may mist tweet from time to time. My point is, who cares? Your job as a smart investor is to separate the facts and the news from the fiction and the noise. And all of that stuff doesn't matter. It does not change the fact that tens of thousands of consumers are buying that car faster than they can get their hands on it.
It doesn't change that. The minute you sit inside that car, your definition of what is expected is altered forever. And you wonder why every other car around you that you ever step in, that you may buy, doesn't have the same things that that car offers. So, at the end of the day, whether you like his style or not, his substance is irrefutable.
Sure. But I I walk down the street here in San Francisco the other day, I see a a billboard for the new Audi uh electric car that's coming. I mean, competition is coming. If it's not already here, that gives you no pause. You're right. Because uh I remember all the Zoom media players I bought after Apple released um the iPod.
I also remember the enormous number of amazing smartphones I bought when the iPhone was launched. It's not what people do. You know, it tends to be the case that when you redefine expectations and you have a category leader and you have an indelible brand and a mark that people recognize, the easiest decision, let me be a little pjorative, the lazy decision is to pick the winner and go with it.
And in this case, there is a clear winner in electrification. It is done. That dye has been cast. And so now the question is, can he build the infrastructure to deliver the demand? And if given time and if given patience, I believe he will and I vote with my money that he can do that. And everybody that bets against him can do that as well.
But at what stake really? Because it's not as if there's no downside protection for the stock. The people who short this company are so shortsighted because the number of companies that would come out of the woodwork. You don't think that Apple with $200 billion of cash backs stops this company and has a chance to enter a trillion dollar market overnight.
of buying that business if it gets imperiled in any way. Google, which already tried to buy it, wouldn't try to buy it again. I'd say it it it's a risk. So, what are we betting against? We're betting against a cleaner earth because we don't like that. We like to suck in the carbon monoxide and the fumes from all these cars.
We're betting against beautiful flat screens, beautiful ways in which to manage your experience inside the car cuz we don't like that. No, we're betting against whether he can deliver what he says, the fundamentals of the company. That's what they're No, no, that's not true. People are betting against his style.
They don't like his style. It's not just that. There's people there are smart people like Jim Chenos. He's a smart investor. He's not betting just on his style. Jim Chenos makes money once a decade. And while the market rips up, the guy just bleeds money and he's never on CNBC. And every time something works, he's there for 5 minutes.
Great for Jim Chenos. Fantastic as a hedge in a portfolio where you have 1% in a short fund. But the reality is being long equities makes sense. Being long innovation makes sense. Betting against entrepreneurs that are changing the world has never been a profitable endeavor. Why start now? I'm sure Mr.
Chenos is going to take issue with your numbers and some of your comments. And I'm happy to post my returns against Chenos's. Even when cars underperform, Tesla has multiple lanes to win in the future. A major moment this month was Morgan Stanley downgrading Tesla for the first time in 2 years. They shifted from buy to hold, signaling that Tesla's valuation may already be pricing in future dreams, robo taxes, AI, and robotics before those ideas have truly materialized.
They also expect 2026 vehicle deliveries to be lower than previously predicted. It doesn't mean Tesla isn't innovative. It just means the stock might not have as much upside in the short term as Wall Street once believed. So what happens next? There are two possible paths. In the bearish scenario, global EV demand stays weak.
Competition intensifies. Margins stay tight and Tesla continues to struggle. The big bets, full self-driving, robotics, robo taxes take time. And if Tesla can't deliver soon, valuation could take a hit. But in the bullish scenario, Tesla leverages its strength in China and continues expanding energy, software, and robotics.
Any breakthrough in autonomy or robotics could reignite growth and push the stock back upward. For now, here are three things to watch. First, global EV demand trends, especially in the US and Europe. If they get worse, Tesla will feel it immediately. Second, Tesla's non-car businesses, energy, software, and robotics could become the company's safety net if vehicle sales stay weak.
Third, regulatory updates around self-driving and AI. One approval or one setback could drastically shift Tesla's future. Tesla is at a crossroads. The ride ahead could be bumpy or it could be the setup for a major comeback. Only time and execution will tell. Thanks for watching and stay tuned for more updates and
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