저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
우리 ARK는 AI·로보택시·휴머노이드 로봇 등 혁신 성장주에 5년 시계로 투자하며, AI 버블은 아니라고 봄. 기업 도입에는 시간이 걸리고 팔란티어 같은 기업이 구조조정을 주도할 것. 1년 내 금리 상승 전환 가능성을 언급하며 조정 위험도 인정. 미국 감세(OBBBA)로 기업 투자·혁신이 가속될 것으로 기대. 테슬라는 2026년 로보택시·저가 모델·Dojo 확대를 목표로 할 것이라는 내레이션(해설)이 이어짐.
다듬은 글
Cathy Wood joins me live now around the desk here at FII in Saudi Arabia. Cathy, great to have you on the program. Welcome to Squawk Box. Thank you, Dan. I'm thrilled to be here. So, Cathy, let's talk about what we're seeing in the markets right now because I want your reaction first and foremost to this surge that we've seen in Qualcomm.
It's going to be taking on the likes of Nvidia and AMD. Your thesis is innovation. Do you welcome that pop? Is it just getting started? Where is it going from here? Yes, I know a lot of people are worried about all the AI hype. Uh but uh as we're looking uh to the future, uh especially with embodied uh AI, which is all about robo-taxis and transforming the world of transportation completely, uh and then healthcare, which is probably one of the most profound applications of AI, uh we think that this investment will uh will pay off.
And I think the chaser is going to be humanoid robots. Uh and I think that is going to be the biggest of all the embodied AI opportunities. Well, Cathy, the concern in the market right now is that the pace of innovation doesn't necessarily justify the premiums that we're seeing for some of these names.
How would you respond to that? Yes, well, if we're right and uh the growth continues to accelerate in this space, uh we think that the uh growth will that the valuations will um make sense longer term. So, you really do have to have a longer term time horizon, which we do. We have a 5-year investment time horizon.
I'm not saying there will never be any corrections. Of course, there will. As many people worry, okay, is this too much too soon? Uh but if our expectations for AI, especially embodied AI in the way that I just described, are correct, uh we are at the very beginning of, you know, a technology revolution.
Is AI in a bubble right now? I do not believe AI is in a bubble. What I do think is on the enterprise side, it is going to take a while for large corporations to prepare themselves to transform. It's going to take a company like Palantir going into the largest enterprises and and really restructuring them in order to really capitalize on the productivity gains that we think are going to be unleashed by AI.
In the consumer space, the consumer loves all of this, you know, and I think we're all looking forward to our personal assistants doing our shopping for us. Well, I am. As I talked to people around the world, some people love shopping, so they may not, but I am really excited about not just shopping, but how much my productivity as an individual is going to increase with AI.
It already has in terms of research. What if I told you that 2026 could be the most important year in Tesla's history? Not just another product launch, not just another earnings report, but a year that could decide whether Tesla becomes the most dominant tech company in the world or faces its biggest test yet.
Because Elon Musk isn't thinking small, he never does. By 2026, Tesla isn't just trying to sell more cars. It's trying to redefine transportation, energy, robotics, and artificial intelligence all at the same time. Let's break down exactly what Elon Musk and Tesla are aiming to achieve by 2026 and why it matters more than most investors realize.
First, the biggest piece of the puzzle, full self-driving. Tesla's entire long-term valuation hinges on autonomy. Elon Musk has repeatedly said that once full self-driving reaches true unsupervised capability, Tesla vehicles could become autonomous robot taxes. Let's just stress test this point because you said that AI is not in a bubble, but you also flagged that there could be a correction risk.
What's the timeline on that correction then if you were to gaze into your crystal ball? I think [clears throat] we're going to reach a moment in the next year where the conversation will shift from lower interest rates to rising rates, but it will be for a good reason. We think that the economy, the US and the rest of the world of course will participate, is going to move into a just in time for our midterm election.
So, I think when interest rates reverse, there will be a shudder because there are a lot of people out there and we saw this during COVID and its aftermath who think that innovation and interest rates are inversely correlated. That is not true over history even in 2017 when interest rates went up, we had phenomenal performance.
So, I want to disabuse people of that notion, but nonetheless, the way algorithms work these days, we think that there will be a a reality check, shall we say. A reality check. Okay, so if we do come into this higher rate environment as you're suggesting, then how should investors be thinking about allocating in the innovation space?
Of course we look at Arc up more than 50% YTD. Talk to me about some of the allocations you're making right now and this big bet on the future. Ultimately, what's going to pay off? Well, one of the things we have focused on consistently is really this is going to sound um uh it's going to sound almost silly, but we're focused on the future and pure plays uh in the innovation space around robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain technology, and especially multiomic sequencing in the health health care space.
I think that's the most underestimated and underappreciated. So, uh those are our five main areas. Uh they involve 15 technologies, and we think they're converging uh to create really explosive growth opportunities. What do you think has changed in the market that is rewarding your strategy again? Because I also think it's fair to say, since our last conversation in Abu Dhabi a couple of years ago, you've been through a pretty rough patch, right?
Yes, we went through a very rough patch. And in fact, uh during uh the the the four years prior to this administration, we were facing increasing regulation, a massive increase in interest rates, supply chain shocks, all of which impacted unit growth. And unit growth really drives innovation. And the the faster units grow, uh the faster cost decline.
Uh and so, we're through that, and more important, uh in in this administration, we have with OB3, the one big beautiful bill, uh massive tax changes that uh are going to uh take the effective corporate tax rate in the United States uh down to what we believe is 10% statutory will still be 21, but with the accelerated depreciation, massive accelerated depreciation in manufacturing structures, equipment, domestic R&D, and software, uh we think that uh that is going to turbocharge innovation in a way that people do not appreciate right now.
And that is one of the reasons we do believe we're moving uh into next year, we'll see uh uh this idea of a a productivity-led boom in activity. That means your car wouldn't just sit in a parking lot losing value. It could drive around making money for you. Tesla's goal going into 2026 is to massively scale its autonomous driving software and launch its dedicated robotaxi platform.
Musk has hinted at a next generation vehicle built specifically for autonomy. No steering wheel, no pedals, optimized for ride-hailing at ultra-low cost. If Tesla can pull this off, it doesn't just become a car company, it becomes something closer to Uber but without drivers. And unlike traditional automakers, Tesla would collect high-margin software revenue from every autonomous mile driven.
Now, think about the numbers. If millions of Teslas are operating autonomously, generating revenue per mile, Tesla's earnings potential changes dramatically. That's why Elon keeps saying Tesla's really an AI company disguised as a car company. And speaking of AI, that brings us to the next big 2026 goal.
Dojo. Tesla's Dojo supercomputer is designed to train neural networks specifically for autonomous driving. Instead of relying entirely on external chip suppliers, Tesla's building its own AI training infrastructure. By 2026, Tesla aims to significantly scale Dojo's compute power. Why does that matter?
Because autonomy is a data game. The more real-world driving data Tesla processes, the smarter its system becomes. Tesla already collects billions of miles of driving data from its global fleet. Feeding that into Dojo creates a powerful feedback loop. More data, better training, better self-driving, more adoption, more revenue.
And here's the bigger picture. If Dojo proves powerful enough, Tesla could potentially offer AI training as a service beyond automotive applications. That opens an entirely new business vertical. Now, let's talk about the vehicle lineup. Tesla's 2026 strategy includes expanding production of next-generation, lower-cost vehicles.
Elon Musk has made it clear the future of Tesla depends on affordability and scale. The company has hinted at a next-gen compact model, often referred to by fans as the Model 2, aimed at a price point significantly below the Model 3. The mission, mass adoption. To achieve this, Tesla is refining its manufacturing process with innovations like gigacasting and unboxed vehicle assembly.
The goal is to dramatically cut production costs and manufacturing complexity. By 2026, Tesla wants to produce vehicles faster, cheaper, and at higher margins than competitors can match. Age and home energy solutions. As renewable energy grows globally, storage becomes essential.
Comments 0