저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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ARK의 캐시 우드는 테슬라 목표가를 5년 내 7,000달러(장기 기본 시나리오, 10개 시나리오 확률가중)로 제시하며 확신을 표명. 근거로 중국 등 글로벌 전기차 점유율 17→18% 상승, 배터리 원가 경쟁사 대비 3~4년 우위, 자율주행용 자체 AI칩과 자율주행 택시 네트워크 잠재력을 듦. 단기적으로는 2023년 판매 성장 둔화와 가격 인하 가능성을 언급하며 2023년 인도량 약 160만대 전망(24% 성장). 2023년 초 ARK 펀드가 테슬라 주식을 매수한 사실도 전함.
다듬은 글
By the way, we talked about Tesla bulls, and we're going to meet one in just a moment. In fact, one of the biggest ones on the street. But but to preface that, Tesla's wild ride has left many of the analyst community in the dust. Check out where analysts stood just a year ago on this stock. Average price star- target was roughly $300 a share.
Next guest thinks Tesla has room to run. In fact, she thinks Tesla could hit $15,000 a share within the next 4 years. Let's bring in ARK Invest CEO and founder Cathie Wood. Cathy, welcome. I know 15,000 a share is not your base case. It's your It's your reach case. What is your base case of where this $700 stock is in 4 years?
Yes, the base case is a 5-year target to the end of '24. It's $7,000. And we have We've arrived at that price by weighting the probabilities of 10 different scenarios, including bankruptcy, to be honest. So, we've been tried to be as fair and balanced as we possibly could be. But our confidence level that this is this stock is heading for $7,000 over the next 5 years is very high.
So, you take out your lowest probability scenarios. You take out the ones that you think are just aren't going to work, or the highly outlandish ones where everything has to click exactly right. Mhm. On what bricks is this $7,000 foundation founded? Is it improving margins? Is it the lowering the cost of production of the vehicles as they get up to scale, or what?
Yes, there are three sources for the increase in our estimate, our estimated price target. One is as Tesla killers entered the market last year, we expected Tesla's market share to go down from 17% globally. That includes China. To something lower. Instead, it went up to 18%. And the reason it 17% in electric vehicles, or in all vehicles?
No, electric electric vehicles. This is global. There There are many electric vehicle manufacturers in China. Very low quality, but very So, what we're learning is Tesla is just so far ahead of the pack. And I'm talking about the BMWs, the Mercedes as far as range and other important metrics when it comes to electric vehicles.
Their battery cost is 3 years ahead, 3 to 4 years ahead of any other auto manufacturer in terms of the cost of clients. And so, every other auto manufacturer will, if they want to be competitive with Tesla, will And I'm including BMW and Daimler and all If they want to be competitive like for like, they will have to sell their cars at a loss at the same time they're losing their internal combustion engine business.
So, they are They have a big problem. So, Are you confident enough in their ability to overcome what I would call a sort of manufacturing hairballs that have have struck them in the past and caused them to miss or delay production targets? Uh so, nothing is in a straight line. You can't promise, but
what they did in Shanghai was unbelievable. You know, breaking ground and producing within a year. And I think they're taking those learnings elsewhere. In Germany, outside of Berlin, we've been thinking, okay, that's a setup for bureaucracy. And they don't want to lose the jobs. So, and now we're hearing potentially about Texas.
So, we think they're going to surprise on the production side now. It took a lot of trial and error, just like with their Falcon rockets when they were trying to land them. It was failure, failure, failure, failure, then success. And now they've been successful pretty much every time since. So, I think they've gotten the manufacturing
Cathy, when you take Tyler's question to the next level, is it Do you dig in and get granular on the opportunities when you look at the sum of the parts. Is it going to be panels, autonomous drive, or batteries that are the new breakout because when we look to to Tyler's point, when we look at the cars in production, everyone thinks they're an expert on what they can and can't do with Tesla.
But is there going to be shockers going forward where there's going to be a breakout valuation on batteries because their technology is so far advanced? Yeah, I think they acquired a company called Maxwell Technologies and they've been very secretive about what that is going to do for their battery technology.
So what I just said to you does not even incorporate Maxwell. So yes, we do think there are surprises on the battery front. They have their own AI chip for autonomous, the only auto manufacturer to have one and James Wang, who worked at our analyst, who worked at Nvidia for eight, nine years, took a look at those specs and said four years ahead of anything that Nvidia is going to be able to produce cuz because of single purpose, it's not general purpose.
So we think they're going to be way ahead of the game on autonomous and that's where the real surprises are going to be because autonomous is a recurring revenue, very high margin, almost software as a service-like opportunity, autonomous taxi networks. While Tesla is shifting into a slower growth mode, the growth is still there and the stock is at a reasonable price right now.
And I think this is what makes it more appealing. The stock is much more affordable, which means that if you buy the stock right now and if everything goes as planned for Tesla, the amount of return you could make by buying the stock right now is much more, is a lot higher than what it would have been if you bought the stock, say 12 months before.
So the stock is at very a very reasonable price right now. You know, a lot and lot of the businesses like the full self-driving and potentially growth of the insurance are being heavily discounted as well as future cost savings that management can still implement as it ramps up factory and as it accused its 2020 battery day goals that will still drive margins higher.
So, I expect proper growth in excess or revenue growth even if revenue growth is more in the high teens over the next 10 years instead of management 50% target. So, we see a lot of upside of the stock at current price. Show me a stock the way what's interesting is yes, they did miss their targets, their own internal targets to deliver more than 50 growth 50% growth in terms of deliveries last quarter and they missed it.
They've got in but 40 is still strong. So, we need to have more clarity, more real sort of basic analysis and future guidance coming from Tesla. So, we can get our sights a little bit more realistically. Yeah, I think that certainly would help management just for saying that we expect to grow 50% year over year in deliveries over a multi-year period horizon does not really help with year-to-year guidance especially as Tesla's now big enough to start seeing a demand impact from an economic slowdown, you know, not that they've noticed they're out 1.3 million vehicles annually, they're going to start to see some consumers who may want to hold off on that next big ticket item and then wait till the next year.
So, while we're in a slowdown, so you know, I think management guidance and more sort of confidence they can give us around specific targets and numbers from year-to-year basis will certainly help the stock because I think right now what the investors are searching for is the right growth rate with high growth stocks like Tesla.
Even small changes in a growth rate assumptions can materially change your evaluation for the stock. Yeah, I mean talk to us about incentives that will be having to be tangled in front of a US buyers. Is that a warrior? Is that a shining of a light on a fact that the price point is going to have to change.
We do think there's going to be some small price cuts as Tesla's going to want to make sure that many of its vehicles as possible specifically some Model 3s and Model Ys will ultimately qualify for the inflation reduction tax credit and heading into an economic slowdown, I think that is going to be a way Tesla can generate strong demand growth.
So, we are modeling some price decreases for that platform next year and this year to self-generate demand growth and that's going to help Tesla grow to what we are forecasting is a little over 1.6 million deliveries in 2023. I think my point here is that just because Tesla said few years before that they're going to they're expecting 50% growth rate year-to-year over a multi-year horizon.
That's a promise to make, but in reality, the reality is often disappointing than the dreams and it's not just the reality, it's the circumstances and the global economic slowdown. You have to factor all of that in and factoring all of that in, I think Tesla is still doing well. It's not how it is in the Wall Street, is it?
You make some promise, you miss on that, you see your stock down 20% next day. So, but is that the reality? That is the reality. So, with all the daily sort of tussles that you get, whether it's on social media or whether it's on air or whether it is about a 40% is still a pretty good growth rate, whether or not we should be looking at deliveries rather than the demand from your perspective, what is the main thing that we should focus our eyes on now when it comes to Tesla?
Is it China? Is it the deliveries? Is it the demand? Which side should you be looking for? I think there are two key things that we should continue to focus on. One is as we go into 2023, what will be the growth rate? I still expect you said double-digit growth rate. I'm forecasting I'm forecasting 24% growth next year in deliveries, then what do the profit metrics look like?
If you remember back, the first quarter of last year, that's where they achieved nearly a 30% gross margin in the automotive segment and that was before the opening of the factories of Berlin and Austin as fact and as factories productions ramp up, I do expect the gross margins to go higher and the margins will improve sequentially and so if that's and a couple of days before Cathie Wood bought Tesla stock on the day of its biggest plunge since September 2020, reaffirming her conviction in the electric vehicle maker and that many other investors have gone into.
And the funds backed by Cathie Wood's firm ARK Investment Management bought more than 176,000 shares of the automaker in the first US trading session of the year, according to ARK's daily data. The purchase came as Tesla stock plunged 12% of the company after the company missed estimates for the quarterly deliveries despite offering hefty incentives.
Cathie Wood exchange-traded fund have acquired slightly more than 938,000 shares of the EV maker since October 3rd and when they started the latest buying streak, according to ARK trading data compiled by Bloomberg. And after Tuesday's fall, Tesla has is down 65% over last year due to the concerns including rising interest rates and inflation weighing on the demand for electric vehicles.
So, that's it guys from her me a lot and do subscribe if you haven't already. Thank you so much for watching guys. I hope you all have a great day and a great year ahead.
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