저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라를 아이폰급 전환점을 지난 성숙 단계 기업으로 평가하며, 보통주보다 전환사채(채권)가 하방 보호된다고 주장. 주가는 창업자 통제가 아닌 헤지펀드·금융조작 세력에 휘둘린다고 봄. 유럽 판매 급감(프랑스 -58%, 덴마크 -49%)과 4분기 연속 이익 감소를 인정하나, 에너지·소프트웨어·로보틱스와 중국 공장을 근거로 장기 낙관. 공매도 세력은 근시안적이라고 비판하며 Jim Chanos와 논쟁.
다듬은 글
Let's talk about Tesla. (번역 주의: 이 채널은 영어 원문이므로 영어 자막을 영어로 다듬어 드립니다.)
Let's talk about Tesla. Okay. What was it, more than two years ago? You pitched the converts. Converts. Yeah. Where are you with those today? And then I want to talk to you more broadly about that company.
If you take a step back, if I asked you to try driving a golf ball off the pier into a teacup and gave you a million tries, I suspect you would never manage it. But if somebody else could do it nine times out of ten, you'd say, "Wow, that person is a great golfer." The analogy I would make is that Elon has basically done the equivalent. He sent a rocket into space, did all kinds of enormously productive and useful things for the world while in space, and then came back down and landed on a boat in the middle of the ocean. The technical sophistication he has in his mind, and that he has been able to apply across his companies, is second to none, quite honestly.
When we looked at Tesla, we saw a company at an inflection point, as close as it gets to its own iPhone moment. What I mean is a company that had been growing up, taking risks, and had finally found the mass-market product that would unlock an enormous amount of product-market fit. That was the Model 3. So far, I would say he is living up to what he signed up for: commercializing electrification, and commercializing an incredible user experience at a price point that has frankly cannibalized its competitors. What you see in the results, in my opinion, is a company now maturing under all that demand. So, is it the best-suited company if you want to drive and observe quarter-over-quarter precision and performance? No. But if you want to step back and take a three- to five-year view, and ask where you can compound your money, what's so beautiful about the converts is that they're downside protected, because they sit on top of all the equity and the other debt. If you have any concern about liquidity issues, or about the company possibly having to sell, the convert holders get paid first. So to me it was a riskless option on the Edison of our generation.
But you weren't necessarily comfortable enough with the story to buy the common stock? The reason is that the common stock is unfortunately not controlled by him or the insiders. It's controlled by a bunch of vulture-like venture and hedge funds, mostly hedge funds, who like to prey on that company. If you look at the Twitter traffic, or the forum traffic around Tesla, the amount of hyping or underhyping, the amount of sniping, is enormous. All of that signals to me that it is a market outside the control of the founders and executives, firmly in the hands of financial manipulators. My perspective is: buy the bonds, you're protected, and allow Elon to execute.
Isn't the founder responsible, through his own actions, for a lot of what you're describing? Well, all I see, frankly, is that he has tried to execute to the best of his abilities. He puts out aggressive numbers and tries to meet them. Sometimes he misses. What would you rather? Often he misses the numbers, but that's okay, because over the course of a year, or over five years, if you take a five-year step back and compare what he promised in 2014 with what he was doing in 2019, you'd be ecstatic. Similarly, if you look from 2019 to 2024 and let the man do his job, will we be better or worse off as a planet, as a species, as humanity, as consumers? We will be better off. And no one debates his genius. It's lauded and celebrated.
Tesla is back in the headlines, and not all of it is good: disappointing sales in Europe, a major Wall Street downgrade, yet the stock still has believers. In the next five minutes, we break down the winds, the warnings, and what might come next.
Tesla's stock has had a turbulent 2025. Shares are still far below last year's highs. Deliveries and revenue showed some strength, but profitability continues to weaken. In the last quarter, Tesla reported higher revenue, but profit dropped again, marking the fourth straight quarter of shrinking profits. So yes, Tesla is still massive, but the fundamentals aren't as strong as they once looked. Revenue is up, profits are slipping, and investors are starting to notice.
The external challenges are stacking up. Europe has been a major trouble spot, with recent data showing huge drops in registrations: a 58% fall in France and 49% in Denmark. Even the US is seeing demand cool off, with rising inventories and slower sales. Tesla tried cutting prices and releasing cheaper variants, but that is squeezing margins even further. Cutting prices only helps if demand stays strong, and right now it isn't. There is at least one bright spot, though: China. Tesla's Shanghai factory continues to support global volume. And remember, Tesla is no longer just a car company. Its energy and storage businesses, software services, and long-shot bets like robotics and autonomous driving keep long-term believers excited.
So you're comfortable with the way he runs his company? If you're an investor in Tesla, are you 100% comfortable with the way he runs the company as CEO? Yeah. None of the actions he's taken over the last year or so give you pause at all? What do you mean? Meaning, the Model 3 is an incredible car. I just bought one. It's incredible. I bought it. The funding was secured. I mean, what was that? Okay, maybe he stepped out of bounds. My point is that you're getting caught up in the window dressing. I'm focusing on the main course. The main course is on the table. The choice for you as a buyer or seller of that stock is whether you want to eat it. If you get caught up in all the stuff around the edges, maybe he misfires on Twitter from time to time. My point is, who cares? Your job as a smart investor is to separate the facts and news from the fiction and noise. None of that stuff matters. It does not change the fact that tens of thousands of consumers are buying that car faster than they can get their hands on it. The minute you sit inside that car, your definition of what's expected is altered forever. You wonder why every other car you ever step into, or might buy, doesn't have the same things that car offers. So at the end of the day, whether you like his style or not, his substance is irrefutable.
Sure. But I walked down the street here in San Francisco the other day and saw a billboard for the new Audi electric car that's coming. Competition is coming, if it's not already here. Doesn't that give you pause? You're right. I remember all the Zune media players I bought after Apple released the iPod. I also remember the enormous number of amazing smartphones I bought when the iPhone launched. That's not what people do. When you redefine expectations, you have a category leader with an indelible brand that people recognize, the easiest decision (let me be a little pejorative here, the lazy one) is to pick the winner and go with it. In this case, there is a clear winner in electrification. That die has been cast. So the question now is whether he can build the infrastructure to deliver the demand. If given time and patience, I believe he will, and I vote with my money that he can. And everybody who bets against him can do that as well. But at what stake, really? It's not as if the stock has no downside protection. The people who short this company are so shortsighted, because of the number of companies that would come out of the woodwork. You don't think Apple, with $200 billion of cash, would stop at nothing and have a chance to enter a trillion-dollar market overnight by buying that business if it were imperiled in any way? Google, which already tried to buy it, wouldn't try again? I'd say it's a risk.
So what are we betting against? We're betting against a cleaner Earth, because we don't like that. We like to suck in carbon monoxide and the fumes from all these cars. We're betting against beautiful flat screens and beautiful ways to manage your experience inside the car, because we don't like those. No, we're betting on whether he can deliver what he says, the fundamentals of the company. No, that's not true. People are betting against his style. They don't like his style. It's not just that. There are smart people like Jim Chanos. He's a smart investor, and he's not betting just on style. Jim Chanos makes money once a decade. While the market rips higher, he just bleeds money, and he's never on CNBC. And every time something works, he's there for five minutes. Great for Jim Chanos, fantastic as a hedge in a portfolio where you have 1% in a short fund. But the reality is that being long equities makes sense. Being long innovation makes sense. Betting against entrepreneurs who are changing the world has never been a profitable endeavor. Why start now? I'm sure Mr. Chanos is going to take issue with your numbers and some of your comments, and I'm happy to post my returns against Chanos's.
Even when cars underperform, Tesla has multiple lanes to win in the future. A major moment this month was Morgan Stanley downgrading Tesla for the first time in two years. They moved from buy to hold, signaling that Tesla's valuation may already be pricing in future dreams (robotaxis, AI, robotics) before those ideas have truly materialized. They also expect 2026 vehicle deliveries to come in lower than previously predicted. That doesn't mean Tesla isn't innovative. It just means the stock may not have as much short-term upside as Wall Street once believed.
So what happens next? There are two possible paths. In the bearish scenario, global EV demand stays weak, competition intensifies, margins stay tight, and Tesla keeps struggling. The big bets (full self-driving, robotics, robotaxis) take time, and if Tesla can't deliver soon, its valuation could take a hit. In the bullish scenario, Tesla leverages its strength in China and keeps expanding energy, software, and robotics. Any breakthrough in autonomy or robotics could reignite growth and push the stock back up.
For now, there are three things to watch. First, global EV demand trends, especially in the US and Europe. If they get worse, Tesla will feel it immediately. Second, Tesla's non-car businesses (energy, software, and robotics) could become a safety net if vehicle sales stay weak. Third, regulatory updates on self-driving and AI. One approval or one setback could drastically shift Tesla's future. Tesla is at a crossroads. The road ahead could be bumpy, or it could set up a major comeback. Only time and execution will tell. Thanks for watching, and stay tuned for more updates.
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