저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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ARK는 테슬라의 장기 예측 리포트를 발표하며 테슬라의 시장점유율이 2018년 17%에서 작년 18%로 올라 유지될 것으로 보고, 기존 전기차 업체들이 배터리 원가 곡선과 전환에 실패하고 있다고 주장한다. 전기차 가격이 18~24개월 내 내연기관차 아래로 떨어질 것이라 보며, 테슬라의 AI칩 우위와 14억 마일 주행 데이터, OTA 업데이트를 강점으로 든다. 진행자는 테슬라 실적(순이익 17% 증가, 영업이익률 10.8%)과 자율주행 구독 개선을 언급한다. 다만 중국 자율주행 승인 지연 가능성과 미중 무역분쟁 리스크도 함께 다룬다.
다듬은 글
companies are in trouble. Uh there's one car company at least this week is not in trouble. That's Tesla that you're invested in. Yes. Uh so explain Tesla to I understand it's a really great car and it's really terrific. It's really forward looking at this. If you look at the number of cars they make compared to the value of the company compared to any other company, it's it's crazy.
Well, we just published a report with our again long-term forecast. And um uh the numbers have gone up dramatically and yet and yet uh we think it's incredibly undervalued. Uh and the reason for that there there are two assumptions that have changed with the the in the last couple of reports. One, our our bull case for Tesla in our old model was that it would lose a third of its market share.
It has it had in 2018 17% global market share including China uh that it would lose as the Tesla killers came into the market Audi uh and uh Porsche Tyan and and Jaguar. Well, guess what? It share increased last year to 18%. You think Tesla can have 17 or 18% of the worldwide market when it's all electric vehicles?
Is that what you're saying? And if we're right, if we are right, this stock has only begun. But that makes it sound makes you think this isn't actually a vote for Tesla. It's a vote in all these other established car companies completely to failing to make the crucial transition which they've known for several years they were going to have to make.
I mean, can we really be that pessimistic about the likes of BMW? They're failing miserably. Failing miserably. in battery technology. They're not riding down the consumer electronics cost curve, which Tesla decided to run down, you know, and and people made fun of them. Oh, you're putting cell phone batteries at at the bottom of the car, cell phone batteries that blow up.
No, they they chose lithium ion pouch uh which is much more costly than uh Tesla's consumer electronics batteries. So, if they want to compete with Tesla, they'll have to sell every electric vehicle at a loss. At the same time, they're losing their internal combustion engine business. The reason this is going to happen is because within the next 18 months to two years, the price of an electric uh vehicle like for like categories is going to drop below that for a gas powered vehicle for the first time and it will continue to fall because we're riding down the battery cost curve decline.
uh and and so uh the the uh traditional auto manufacturer if you look at their R&D budgets or you look at GMs 10% of its R&D $25 billion in I'm sorry uh capital spending is uh allocated to electric they should be at almost 100 now given what's about to happen and I think the reason Berlin Germany uh invited Tesla to build a factory 200 football fields, either soccer or or uh or our football that big, uh is because they know they're in trouble.
They've got to they've got to adjust and or else they're going to lose a tremendous number number of jobs. A little early to count the traditional companies out of it. I mean, they haven't really almost gotten started. So, that is the problem. That is the problem. uh they have just gotten started and what they have delivered uh are cars that don't even meet uh whether it's range or other metrics um the model S uh circa 2012.
Now of course now there are three other there are three other advantages Tesla has. So batter is one. Uh second is uh they have their own artificial intelligence chip and our analyst James Wang who uh who worked at NVIDIA the artificial intelligence company for eight years looked at the specs of this chip and said oh my gosh
they're four years ahead of any other auto manufacturer in terms of the specs out there on chip technology. And that's important because we're going autonomous with electric and uh autonomous is an artificial intelligence project, right? Uh the winner will have the most data and the highest quality data.
Tesla has 14 billion miles of real world driving data today. Uh and the closest competitor Whimo has 20 million. So there's and then the last is Tesla is the only auto manufacturer still that delivers overthe-air software updates to mo Tesla stock has had a great last few months in terms of the stock's performance.
Critics will point out that an already overvalued stock is now even more richly priced. Folks upset about Elon Musk's political antics will argue that the gains can't last for a divisive and mercurial CEO. However, Tesla has traded higher, much higher than it is right now for a good chunk of time. Let's look at some of the reasons why now might be a good time to buy Tesla stock like there's no tomorrow.
Profitability is growing faster than revenue. Revenue rising 8% to $25.2 billion for the 3 months ending in September isn't necessarily impressive. Investors already knew that vehicle deliveries for the quarter were pre-announced as a 6% year-over-year increase. Average selling prices are moving lower.
But given the Tesla ecosystem of subscriptions, accessories, and Supercharger outposts, it's easy to see why revenue is about more than just the initial sale. Boobirds will point out that Tesla is experiencing an unsustainable boost by selling regulatory credits to automakers. There's also the automakers booming energy generation and storage business padding results.
It still doesn't take away from its blowout performance on the bottom line. Net income soared 17% to $2.2 billion for the quarter, more than doubling its topline gain. Tesla has slashed prices on everything from its cars to subscriptions for its autonomous driving platform. Its operating margin still clocked in at 10.8%.
Well above the 7.6% it posted a year earlier. The bottom line is now finding a way to shine. This is Tesla's strongest revenue growth in a year and the first time margins have widened and profits have outpaced the top line in more than a year. It was a refreshingly upbeat report. Autonomous driving is worth a premium.
There's no shortage of video clips online showing Tesla's full self-driving platform at its worst. It launched a couple of years ago in beta. There will be bugs. However, the subscription platform that automates the driving experience continues to get better with every update. Tesla points out that the ratio of miles to interventions, or how many times someone has to take over for something that the car is missing, keeps getting better.
A crash on autopilot is now statistically less likely to happen than with a human behind the wheel. It may never be perfect, but it's a win if it's safer than the owner behind the wheel. Give it time. The market reaction was muted earlier this month when Tesla unveiled its Cyber Taxi and Roboan. They are still a couple of years from hitting the road and by the time they do, you can assume that the guts powering fully autonomous transportation will be even better.
Tesla feels that the two-seater cyber taxi will provide an even cheaper transportation option than public mass transit. Musk says Tesla stock will be much higher. Hype is the default setting in a Tesla earnings call. And once again, Musk said that Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world at some point.
It's a bold claim for a company whose market cap is still 40% below its 2021 peak, but this is a far better and more profitable company than it was at the time. Tesla is finding ways to shave down the cost of its cars, and that's helping Tesla dream out loud for future products. The next Tesla vehicle to hit the market could be priced as low as
$25,000 after tax credits. It remains to be seen what it lacks from the current entry-level Model 3, but Musk emphasized that it will have full self-driving as a subscription option. More importantly, Musk says it should be available in early 2025. That's just a couple of months away. Tesla did bring up its semi-truck.
It already showcased its two-seater and party van self-driving vehicles earlier this month. Musk even discussed the revamp of the Roadster, something that is on the back burner as Tesla prioritizes its other vehicles, but it's still in the works. Along the way, Tesla is proving that it's different than the other electric car stocks.
It continues to raise the bar, reinventing itself more than all the costume changes that Taylor Swift goes through at a concert. It's hard to bet against Tesla despite then near-term valuation multiples of the business. Tesla is bracing for a potential delay in obtaining Chinese approval for its autonomous driving technology as Elon Musk's electric vehicle company risk getting dragged into the escalating USChina trade war.
The company has been told there is no definitive timetable for regulators to approve a license for it to begin widespread training of its full self-driving FSD technology. Despite an earlier indication that it would get the green light in the second quarter of 2025, people with knowledge of the matter told the Financial Times the license would be an important step towards Tesla being able to offer semi-autonomous functionality in its vehicles in China.
A development that would boost subscription revenues and help shore up its shrinking sales in the world's largest automotive market. The system can accelerate, steer, break, and change lanes, but still requires drivers to be alert with their hands on the wheel. Tesla had announced in September that it planned to roll out FSD technology in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, subject to regulatory approval.
That ambition had already slipped and is now in greater doubt as US President Donald Trump engages in a trade war with China. Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs on a range of American goods this month after the US put an additional 10% levy on all Chinese products. Chinese authorities are contemplating using the approval of Tesla's autonomous driving license as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations with Trump, said two of the people with knowledge of the delay, adding that this was the main reason for the holdup in granting the permit.
The approval could still come soon depending on how trade negotiations developed. one of the people added. But another said that some people at the company believed a speedy consent was unlikely unless there was a major breakthrough or concession in trade talks. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which regulates smart vehicles in China, Tesla US, Tesla China, and Musk did not respond to requests for comment.
The situation illustrates how Musk's close relationship with Trump, to whom he is a key adviser and donor, could backfire on the world's richest man in parts of his business empire, including in Tesla's most important market outside the US. Musk has personally led the EV makaker lobbying efforts in Beijing, flying in for a surprise meeting with Chinese Premier Liang last April.
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