저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
ARK는 테슬라를 최대 보유 종목으로 두고, 배터리 가격 하락(라이트의 법칙)으로 2022년경 대중형 EV가 가솔린차보다 저렴해져 수요 문제는 없다고 봄. 마진은 현재 약 20%에서 최대 40%까지 개선 가능, 자율주행 택시가 주행 비용을 mile당 25센트 수준으로 낮추고 사고율을 80% 줄일 것으로 전망. 테슬라는 방대한 주행 데이터 우위를 보유. 후반부 뉴스 자막은 유럽 판매 급감, 머스크 정치 활동 영향, 2025년 인도량 하향 우려 등을 다룸.
다듬은 글
In our bull case for Tesla, we're estimating that they would sell about 7 million vehicles in 5 years time. So that's still less than Toyota sells, for instance. Um so they wouldn't necessarily be the largest company, but of course much larger than they are today. Um I I think that uh what most people are missing about the stock, so for a long time we've heard that there's this demand problem with electric vehicles.
Um to us that's a kind of a crazy idea. Um because if if you if you look at this from a cost perspective, um we've we've done the the modeling using uh something called Wright's law, it's a derivation of Moore's law. So we think that battery costs are declining such that by 2022, a mass market EV will be cheaper than a gas-powered car.
Once that sticker price changes, you get a massive uptick in demand. Um so we don't see demand being an issue at all for the company. Um and and that cost equation will also help Tesla's margin. So right now auto margins sit at about 20% a little bit less if you take out credits. Um we think that could go to up to 40% um if you follow rights law which is forecasted cost declines in the auto industry for over a hundred years.
Um and then I think uh only recently have we gotten any questions on autonomous driving and it's something that Tesla's been talking about for years and this could totally change the business model. It'll be a recurring revenue model like ride hailing as opposed to a one-off sale. Um, so we think that's a massive opportunity.
I think the biggest driver of autonomous technology is we think it'll be it'll make transportation really cheap. Um, so we estimate that an autonomous tax taxi would cost about 25 cents per mile or about 60 Aussie cents per kilometer. Um so so that's roughly half of the cost um that it cost you to drive your personal car and um it's also much cheaper than a taxi of course.
So we think this is going to expand the ride hailing market and um give a lot of people access to really cheap pointto-oint travel that don't have it today. Uh particularly in markets like China. Um of course they'll be much safer. We also think autonomous cars will reduce accident rates by about 80%.
We think most of urban driving will go autonomous. Um, and that's where the majority of miles occur today in urban markets. So you can think of it as a twocar household becoming a onecar household, a onecar household moving to zero cars. Um, so if you live in a city, chances are you won't need to own a car.
Um, and you could just take an autonomous Uber to um, every day to work if if you wanted to. Um, so so I think for the the companies that are attacking this, we're looking Tesla's our largest position in the space. Um, Tesla has a massive data advantage. So autonomous driving is a machine learning problem.
Um for any machine learning uh issue um or problem what what you need is basically massive amounts of data to solve it. Uh Tesla has billions of miles worth of driving data that it has the option to pull from. How much further can Tesla stock price fall? Tesla stock soared late last year but now it is slumping.
Which way will the winds be blowing by the end of the year and beyond? And a few short months ago, I didn't think we'd be seeing a headline like this, but it's been a terrible week for Tesla stock caused by falling European sales figures released on Tuesday. Tesla stock went up as high as $488 in December on the back of CEO Elon Musk's association with the then President-elect Donald Trump.
And since then, it has lost more than 40% as Elon Musk's personal popularity has, well, it's a controversial thing to talk about, but Tesla's market capitalization fell below 1 trillion for the first time since November. So, is Tesla losing the EV edge? The pounding continued after Tesla reported a 45% January sales fall across European markets?
That's perhaps not bad as it sounds, though, while the electric vehicle sales is down 37% overall. And but with the competition going up, it looks increasingly like Tesla has lost any first mover advantage it once had. That's actually in car sales at least. Vehicle from Chinese manufacturer BYD are growing in popularity as they typically offer more features for less money.
But some do seem to be turning away from the brand due to Elon Musk's political activity. Former Tesla director Peter told BBC that he may be getting a bigger fan base within a specific type of clientele, but they are not the ones that are buying the Teslas. So, are the golden days over? So, should shareholders cut and run?
I think a knee-jerk reaction like that could be a mistake. Father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, pointed out that markets follow prevailing sentiment in the short term, but in the long term, in the long term, they weigh up the actual fundamentals. might it instead be a good time to buy because the stock is down 40%.
Now it all depends on how do you define the robotdriven future. The attraction of Tesla for me is not in sales of the cars. It's more about the the technology the companies that the company's developing. It starts with battery and charging technology which has set global standards. It extends to future developments including fully self-driven vehicles.
The robot taxi business has been making the headlines. But imagine a time when driving tests are history and the cars do all the work and AIdriven optimal road planning, no more speeding ticket, maybe even no more road accident. The day will surely come. Tesla spent around $5 billion on AI research in 2024 and has plans for about the same this year.
Most magnificent 7 AI spend seems to be piling into data centers for running large language models. But Tesla, while also needing AI for data processing, is focused on self-driving and robotic autonomy. Um, shares of Tesla saw a meteoric rise following the 2024 presidential elections due in part to CEO Elon Musk's close relationship with President Donald Trump.
Now, the same relationship is hurting the stock. Now, this is something a lot of people did not consider when Tesla stock was going up like crazy after the election. And politics is always a tough tough stance for anyone. And certainly it is not helping Elon Musk right now. And from election day through Christmas, Tesla stock surged an impressive 84%.
However, since that time, the stock has been down 40%. The stock closed at around $251 on election day before results were announced and now currently trades at $290, just 15% higher, wiping out massive gains. And many believe that Elon Musk's push with the Department of Government Efficiency Doge is turning off some buyers, particularly overseas buyers.
And earlier this week, European data showed that Tesla's new car registrations in the European European Union, the European Free Trade Association, and the UK went down 45% yearonear to 9,900 registrations. Elon Musk's increased political visibility is alienating bias is what Gene Monster of Deep Water Asset Management said.
Deep Waters and Gene Monster have always been very positive on Tesla stock and Elon Musk. But even now they feel that Elon Musk is potentially alienating buyers because of his political stance. And amid warning demand, Gene Monster thinks 2025 delivery expectation for Tesla could be way too high. Wall Street expects 2 million vehicle deliveries in 2025.
But according to Monster, the whisper number is around 1.7 million. Well, um, Gene Monster does not think that Tesla stock will bottom until Wall Street analysts lower their delivery numbers closer to the whisper numbers. In addition to sagging demand for Tesla cars, investors are worried about Elon Musk's time spent away from his car company.
The worry of the street is that Elon Mus dedicating so much time to Doge takes away from his time at Tesla in such a crucial moment and year for the company is what Dan said from Weed Bush. Tesla is preparing for a mass market launch of early 2025 with key advances in autonomous driving and the Optimus project across its global network.
an unsupervised and unsupervised FSD rollout in Austin is set for June accompanied by additional EV and battery growth catalyst and the upcoming Model Y Juniper launch in the US and China is expected to spur demand and a lowerc cost vehicle is anticipated before July to boost the global deliveries. All in Dan sees Tesla stock recovering the recent losses and jumping further to to $550 per share or 90% higher versus the current levels.
Elon Musk for his part is telling Tesla investors to take the long-term approach with the stock in response to the worries that Elon Musk is making the stock go down. He said Friday on X which is formerly known as Twitter the long-term outcome for Tesla is very high. So all these things they are the short-term things that you should not worried about.
No one can predict the short-term issues. I mean like it is obvious that once Elon Musk got involved in the politics of all that while Tesla stock went up after Donald Trump won the election. But these things they can easily misfire. They can backfire on Elon Musk and effectively Tesla which many investors are banking on.
So Tesla is not very safe right now with the political climate going on. But but all of that is short-term. If you look at the long term it is always the company with brighter prospects that wins and currently according to Elon Musk and even Dan Ives the analyst from Wed Bush the amount of things that Tesla can achieve in the future are still very very high.
So that still makes Tesla stock a good buy. Not when Tesla stock went up 40%, but now that Tesla stock is down 40%, maybe it is a time to dive in and see how it pans out for Tesla stock in the future. Tesla investor Ros Gerber has been warning about Tesla's future for some time now. In the latest forecast made by him is not optimistic.
Following a rough start for Tesla stock this year, Gerber, the CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management has forecasted has forecasted a possible decrease in Tesla stock price by up to 50% by 2025 ending, reported Business Insider. According to Ross, he cited that Elon Musk's overly ambitious goal of rolling out a full self-driving network by June in Austin, Texas, which will be impossible to achieve.
Gerber does not think Tesla can hit this timeline, particularly because the company's autonomous system is based on cameras instead of the lighter sensors employed by rivals such as Alphabets's Whimo. He claimed that we're well behind in robot taxi and autonomy. No question. Now, he also added that I'm in the camp now that you need leader to have a safe enough system for for full self-driving.
He's also a bit skeptical on Elon Musk's overstretched focus. As CEO of several companies including Tesla, SpaceX, and XAI, Gerber thinks Tesla CEO Elon Musk's time is too divided and it is impacting Tesla's performance. And with Elon Musk diverted to artificial intelligence and is and his many personal pursuits, Ross Gerber fears Tesla is being neglected.
According to him, Elon Musk, Elon Musk is 100% focused is on AI and that's really a detriment to Tesla more than it is a plus for XAI and all the other businesses because he does not work at Tesla anymore. Gerber would feel a lot more confident about chess life if Elon Musk had put all of his time into full self-driving technology.
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