저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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연준의 과도한 긴축으로 미국 경기침체가 확인되고 있다고 주장. 디플레이션이 인플레이션보다 큰 위험이라 보며, 주식·채권·코인 가격 하락이 이를 보여준다고 함. 2022년 크립토 급락(루나·셀시우스·블록파이 사태)을 사례로 들고, 위기 속에서도 AI·로봇·유전체·전기차 등 혁신 기업은 살아남아 성장한다는 취지로 마무리함.
다듬은 글
The bad news is that the Fed has become extremely aggressive and hawkish. The good news is that we are beginning to get data that is confirming uh that the economy the US economy is in recession and and if you've tuned in before you you know that we believe that that Europe and China effectively have been in recession as well.
now a global recession. Uh we're also getting a lot of indicators that uh prices are coming down and I think this notion that the inflation that everyone has been worried about uh is is quite uh quite a wrong way of looking at the world right now. Uh we believe that deflation is the much bigger risk.
We've been saying this for a time. Uh we've been ridiculed for saying it. uh and we were challenged by those who were sure that we were back into a 70s style inflation uh scenario. Uh we think that that the the pricing action uh and I'm not just talking about stocks and bonds. I'm talking about commodity prices uh crypto uh prices uh and and perhaps soon even housing prices uh that uh many people will conclude the greater risk is deflation and as you know uh we don't think deflation is a bad thing per se.
It is a bad thing. Uh the way the Fed has approached it, we believe. Um but deflation can be a very good thing if it is caused by technology and progress. And we think we're going to see a lot of that over the years. Uh but right now we're looking at bad deflation and uh we're we're going to have to get through this.
I think uh the next Fed move is supposed to be at the end of this month and uh the Fed is out of its quiet period. So all the Fed governors have been trapesing out saying we're going 75 basis points, another 75 basis points. Um well, we think that they will rethink that this uh in this month as we get uh not only more pricing signals but earnings reports and guidance for for from companies who uh will be probably confirming that the US is now in recession.
So, bad news, good news. Uh, darkest before the dawn. Um, we called this segment, uh, finding growth. We think growth is going to be scarce this year. And as you know, innovation is all about growth. Innovation is also about solving problems. We have a lot of problems now. A recession is going to be uh providing another set of problems.
So, well, crypto had its worst quarter since 2011. Um, and it's a much more mature market than it was back then with the boom bust. So, that's saying something. Uh, the S&P down 20% year-to- date. NASDAQ down roughly 30%. Uh, so the stock market has not seen a worse a worse year to date since 1962. And uh, and that was when the Cuban crystal uh, missile crisis took place.
Uh and then what happened after that is we ended up uh in the great society guns and butter and uh inflation took off. But first the stock market was was a barn burner. It was uh very hot from 62 to 66. Uh when it comes to bonds, uh this has been the worst yearto-date performance in bonds in anyone's lifetime.
Um and by some measures, you have to peacemeal uh the bonds, but uh to to try and get the record. Uh the worst since 1788. Uh you know, that's more than 250 years ago. So uh or almost 250 years ago. So it's been a very very rough rough market for investors. Uh we think there is light at the end of the tunnel.
The light is that the Fed is getting a lot of uh signals that will ultimately end up in the lagging indicators called the PPI and the CPI. uh they're getting a lot of indicators and I think a lot of companies are going to be telegraphing in their earnings reports this next month that we are in recession and I do believe the Fed uh will do a a double take.
Athy Wood has never been afraid to go against the crowd. When most of Wall Street panics during crashes, she does the opposite. She leans in. She believes something most investors can't emotionally handle. And today we're diving into exactly what Kathy Wood thinks about stock market crashes, why she believes they're necessary, and why she says the biggest opportunities in history are created when everyone else is terrified.
Because while the average investor sees a crash as disaster, Kathy Wood sees it as a reset. She believes crashes don't just wipe out prices, they wipe out weak ideas, weak companies, weak innovation. And what's left standing is the future. Whenever markets crash, panic spreads faster than any news headline.
Investors sell because other investors sell. Time on crypto. It has been an incredible month and fears of systemic collapse have been rife in the marketplace. Uh so we we've seen uh Bitcoin it peaked way back in November at 69,000 and it is now at 19 point uh 19,500. um uh it is still higher than its precoid 7 to 10,000 range and it is just about at its uh 20 uh 2017 high.
So this could be some support. It's also at um it's it's it is below its uh its 200 week moving average uh which is at 22,500. So there is some concern that that is the new resistance. Now as we've seen the last month play out. Talk about um a reach for yield. Crypto personified that. DeFi personified that.
Uh when uh and and we knew that the Luna Terra experiment with algorithmic stable coins was not going to work. It was backed by nothing. And uh I remember we did a podcast with Docoan. It's still on our site and I remember listening to it twice because I I couldn't understand what he was doing or saying.
I am an economist uh by background. Uh and and so I I really do try and noodle through these things and I just didn't think that was going to work. Uh and it failed in spectacular fashion in in May. uh and uh and has taken Celsius down with it. Uh Voyager Digital uh three-hour arrows capital uh BlockFi almost it was very interesting uh to see BlockFi's last funding round at three uh billion dollars.
This is a lending platform and uh tried to do another round recently at $1 billion. uh he couldn't get it done and today it seems that uh FTX um is going to uh is going to buy it out or it has the option to buy the equity for 240 million. A rumor this week had it at 25 million. So much better than that but much worse less than a tenth of its last round.
Uh so and it's not just happening in crypto. Uh CLA just announced I I believe that its last round was in the $4 billion range. This is a fintech company and uh it is doing around now at 6 and a half billion. It becomes emotional. It becomes irrational. Prices no longer represent the value of a company.
They represent fear. And that's exactly where Kathy Wood steps in. She believes crashes expose the truth. The companies that were running only on hype get destroyed and the companies that actually build real disruptive technology eventually rise stronger than before. Kathy says crashes are moments where the market finally stops pretending.
All the noise disappears. Overvalued companies collapse. Speculation gets punished. And what survives are businesses actually changing the world. Artificial intelligence, robotics, genomics, electric vehicles, energy innovation. These aren't just buzzwords to her. She believes they are the foundation of the next financial revolution.
And a crash doesn't stop that future. It accelerates it. But here's what makes her different from 99% of investors. Most people only look at what's happening right now. Prices falling, fear rising, headlines screaming doom. Kathy Wood looks years ahead. She says crashes are painful but temporary. Innovation is powerful and permanent.
According to her, the biggest mistake investors make during crashes is letting emotion replace logic. They forget that the companies truly leading innovation are still building, still creating, still advancing, even if their stock price is going down. She believes that history has proven this again and again.
Every massive technological revolution went through brutal crashes. The dot crash destroyed thousands of internet companies. But the few real innovators survived. Amazon survived. Google survived. The internet didn't die. It changed the world. And Kathy Wood believes we are living through that same cycle again, just on a much bigger scale.
During crashes, she doesn't ask how low will it go. She asks who will change the world after this is over. That mindset is why her investment style feels extreme to some people. While the world screams panic, she sees opportunity. When others sell everything, she doubles down on what she believes in most.
But let's be honest, her strategy isn't easy. It comes with massive volatility, huge drawdowns, painful criticism. When markets fall, her funds fall even harder. People call her crazy, irresponsible, even delusional. But she doesn't back down because to her, crashes are not the end. They are the cleanup phase before the next era of growth.
Kathy Wood believes central banks, technology cycles, and economic fear all create temporary chaos. But innovation breaks through all of it. She believes artificial intelligence will reshape productivity. She believes robotics will transform industries. She believes DNA sequencing will change healthcare forever.
She believes autonomous vehicles will rewrite transportation economics. And she believes investors who panic during crashes risk missing what she calls once in a generation opportunities. To Kathy, the most dangerous thing in a crash is not losing money temporarily. It's losing conviction permanently.
But here's the real question. Is she right? Or is she dangerously optimistic? That is what makes Kathy Wood so fascinating. She is either going to be remembered as one of the boldest visionaries of our time or one of the most stubborn believers in a dream that never fully materialized. And that tension makes every crash feel like a test, a test of patience, a test of belief, a test of whether innovation truly wins in the end.
When markets crash, the crowd screams, "Get out." Kathy Wood says, "Pay attention." Because crashes reveal who was pretending and who was actually building. So the next time the stock market crashes, remember this. To most people, it feels like the end. But to Kathy Wood, it's just the beginning of the next great chapter.
And whether she ends up right or wrong, one thing is undeniable. She has changed the way investors think about risk, innovation, and the future. The market may crash, prices may fall, fear may take over, but innovation doesn't stop. And that's the world Kathy Wood is betting on.
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