저자: Kevin · 외국인
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소비 둔화와 초과저축 소진, 부채 상환 증가, 부동산 자산가치 하락이 겹치며 2023년 중 Fed가 금리 인하(정책 전환)로 돌아설 가능성이 크다는 주장. 초과저축 잔액은 2022년 Q2 약 1.7조 달러에서 2023년 Q2~Q3 사이 0에 도달할 것으로 전망. 저축률 3.1%, 가계 부채 상환 사상 최고 수준 등을 근거로 제시. 다만 영상 내 발언은 주로 경기 전망이며 특정 자산 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 제한적.
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oh now here's some useful data we want to pay attention to because this data can help us understand oh wow this is when a really big inflection point could happen you want to mark your calendar for this one because this is a big deal and the FED is paying close attention to this particular metric before we talk about this metric though let's talk about some things that relate to it like Dollar Tree suffering so bad in the last quarter of earnings that they're actually now resorting to discounting at the dollar store they're seeing so much theft on top of that then how it makes you wonder if people are going to start stealing from the dollar store more than they're already stealing from Target Target already facing 400 million dollars in Theft amid also declines in revenues Nordstrom sales down substantially digital sales down over 16 factor in inflation you're down over 24 at Nordstrom for digital sales and in-store sales also not looking too pretty some companies are reporting decently but don't look to AP HP who's now firing 10 percent of their Workforce on not only slow PC sales but PC sales that are so slow they actually think the weakness is going to extend into 2023 that's kind of what Dell told us yesterday as well it even goes to real estate agents with we know 80 percent of which uh just like most consumers 80 of which are living paycheck to paycheck now all of a sudden because real estate transactions are starting to dry up 37 of real estate agents can't pay their office rent 37 that's one in three real estate agents can't pay their rent and the amount of people pulling money out of their 401ks for hardship withdrawals is now up 24 now those numbers are those hardship withdrawals are still relatively low but we see an inflection point Nike is discounting like crazy and sure some smaller brands with pricing power companies like Enphase or Lulu are just absolutely killing it and they're crushing it and they probably still will since they're small companies getting larger but what you're not seeing folks is the Fed u-turning yet until potentially a U-turn in this data that's starting to have a massive shift fed talked about it briefly this morning but almost nobody touched on it but that's okay I'm here and I'ma break it down but you have to remember when the FED pays attention to it it doesn't mean they're going to react super fast so you want to mark your calendar for this data I want to talk about this data but there's something very exciting right before that data and that's a 60 off coupon code on the programs on maximizing your wealth in 2023.
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email us at Kevin meet kevin.com that we do have some bundles on the website linked down below so what did the FED tell us well Esther George had the following to say today quote the Dynamics of excess savings are going to be a key factor for the economic Outlook if consumer spending stays strong due to high savings then rates might have to go higher we already know that when terminal fed funds rates go up the stock market go down not great well Esther George who's very concerned about consumers and consumer spending I have some phenomenal news for you about the complete Wipeout of excess consumer savings that's happening let's take a look at some charts first the savings rate for individuals during the pandemic was 33 percent now it's at an all-time low 3.1 percent and when the savings rates but when the savings rate plummet it's it also tends to align with a plummet of excess income characterized by disposable income charts this is a chart showing you disposable income and what you really want to look at is the fact that we have just gone negative my friends look down here at this little green section here let's go ahead and go in deep here look at that we have finally gone negative you can barely see it right there but we finally gone negative and this is excellent because it is finally an end to this insane growth of disposable income growth which if you have less money that's disposable meaning you could spend it on stuff and you're now saving less money than you were before the pandemic savings rates today being at 3.1 percent or well below what we saw before the pandemic not only are you saving less money but you have less money to spend guess what happens spending tends to roll over but it's not just spending that tends to roll over we know that people are borrowing more money to sustain some of their savings or sustain some of their spending but what metrics when we just look at credit borrowing and we see credit borrowing explode what those metrics Miss is this right here us households are paying off debt at the highest annual level ever well actually with the exception of that tiny little Peak right there with the exception of that we are right now uh and that was during the pandemic when people like oh my gosh pay everything off right uh and then we got like big stimmy payments and stuff like that but other than that we the household debt repayments are really high right now people are paying off credit cards they're getting out of debt which is a smart thing to do especially this is like so critical you look if you want to buy a house you want to get into multi-family real estate you got to pay for that at get out of debt so you can maximize uh your qualifying ability by minimizing your debt to income ratio obviously stuff we talk about in zero millionaire course uh for real estate investing go into all if you're confused by anything about real estate investing tenants Property Management Renovations just learn from somebody who's done real estate for a very very long time with a family who's done real estate for a very very long time and we're really good at what we do that's why we're launching a real estate startup that's going to start buying like crazy in 2023 that's the expectation right now uh so very very exciting but anyway these debt repayment moments are huge because they're signaling that not only do consumers have less money coming in for savings or spending but the money that they do have they're now dumping into debt payoff which is really really interesting because those two things combined mean less consumer spending and come march to April of 2023 we expect to have year-over-year negative real estate appreciation even though real estate prices are already down eight to twelve percent off their q1 Q2 Peak depending on where you are you actually still have year-over-year growth in home prices that means home prices went kind of like this and they've started coming down but when you compare year over year they're still at a higher level today but we expect that to be negative when we get to march to march to May so come Q2 of 2023 you're going to be in a situation where excess savings or plummeting debt payoff is skyrocketing and people are realizing that household balance sheets are actually starting to look worse because real estate Equity is starting to shrink and Robert who is famous for the case Shiller index and a Princeton Economist has told us that it's not stocks going down that tends to lead people to spend less money it's real estate going down that leads people to spend more less money so combine these three three things you've got a setup for something very very beautiful it's this I'm going to explain this but I want you to think about those three things quickly because I want you to remember these three things number one we talked about this is real estate Equity leads consumption to go down but number two having less money leads consumption to go down and number three uh increasing debt we'll put it down debt payoff leads consumption to go down consumption going down down down down is a big deal because that's what the FED is looking for and all of these things are pointing to consumption going down but as of Q2 of 2022 that's this summer we were still sitting at about 1.7 trillion dollars of excess savings I realize this says billions but it's in thousands so I'm translating it for you just like that 60 off coupon code is translated to a really good deal but anyway what's fascinating about this is the following watch this we're gonna erase this I want you to see this see here in 2021 when the stemi payments stopped you kind of had a slow decline here in excess savings right well what would you call this right here in Q4 of 2021 Q4 of last year Well friends this is an inflection point an inflection point is when all of a sudden the rate of decline actually accelerates and it not only accelerated here accelerated here with a minor acceleration again and so we could actually see this line again inflect down to fall even faster but before we think about this line and speculate about this line falling faster let's just consider this by Q4 of 2021 we were sitting at about 2.2 trillion 2.3 trillion dollars of excess savings that leads to a decline of about 250 to 300 billion dollars of excess savings per quarter but this chart only goes to Q2 which if the chart only goes to Q2 then we probably have another 600 billion dollars of excess savings that have already been evaporated off of this which means we could already be sitting right here at 1.1 trillion dollars of excess savings and that means when we go into q1 Q2 by Q3 somewhere between Q2 and Q3 assuming the excess savings don't evaporate even faster excuse me which is possible somewhere between Q2 and Q3 of 2023 excess savings will be zero that's the expectation right now now why is that bad well if excess savings go to zero and start going negative then people are going to look at their bank accounts and go oh my gosh we have less money in 2023 than we had in 2019 because see this chart is an excess savings chart back to 2020.
insane at the same time we expect inflation will still be high not on a month over month or annual basis where we're looking at the change in CPI but prices could remain high consider this Dell and their earnings report told us actually in their earnings call told us that hey we are actually starting to see disinflation component prices are coming down this is why we saw a softening PPI report so does that mean computers are going to become cheaper Dell said no even though demand has been weak they don't actually expect to reduce the price of their PCS they want to hold the price of their PCS high and as prices come down for the components oh more profit margin consumers still spending at high levels or or having to spend at high prices elevated prices now combine all of this together excess savings going to zero pain in real estate no disposable income right all of these things the debt payoff all of these things combined and what you have is probably a Q3 of no money left no money left by Q3 2020.
but the FED realizes that their policy tends to operate with a six to nine month lag that means those High interest rates really take about six to nine months to really get through the economy and hit consumers with the exception of stock market hits the stock market faster this is why generally stocks lead us out of a recession they also lead us into a recession When Things fall right anyway six to nine months of a lag would actually suggest that the FED needs to peek out their Hawking between now ish to January maybe to March so by now we're really talking about December Jan or March so sometime within the next four months we think the FED has to flip and they're going to flip big if these consumer excess savings numbers continue down this trajectory and that debt payoff continues to be high because if these numbers go negative combined with high prices buy by spending and then you could have real pain in 2023 where you actually potentially start knocking on the door of a depression which the Federal Reserve does not want to push us into a depression they are forcing a recession to get rid of inflation or potentially near recession but they don't want to push us into a depression which means my expectations are the FED is very very very very likely to flip within the next four months if we get a soft CPI report in December they could flip even sooner that is very bullish I'm very excited about what the future holds I'm very excited about my five million dollar trading competition starting Monday and I'm super excited to see you as a course member where you get lifetime access to all of our content we'll be having new lectures coming out specifically for 2023 real estate we'll have updates for the property management course as well we'll also have updates to fundamental analysis and balance sheet cash flow statement and income statement analysis in these stocks and psychology MoneyGram and of course the full launch of the elite Hustlers University on Frid
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