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2023년 증시는 2022년보다 나쁠 수 있다는 시나리오를 제시. 골드만삭스는 S&P500이 2023년 말 4000 수준으로 횡보할 것으로 보며 EPS 바닥은 2023년 후반~2024년 초로 예상. CFO 설문에서 46%가 2023년 경기침체를 예상. 개인저축률 3.1%로 2000년 이후 최저, 리볼빙 부채는 팬데믹 이전 수준 상회. TSA 이용객 감소세와 타겟의 4분기 경고로 소비 둔화 신호. 연준의 긴축 지속으로 불확실성 확대. 시타그룹은 세 가지 시나리오(연착륙 반등, 중간, 깊은 침체)를 제시.
다듬은 글
oof is it possible that 2023 could be even worse than 2022 well Goldman Sachs says so Citibank has three scenarios for us which we'll be going through here we'll talk a little bit about what CFOs are thinking what are consumers doing and oh man what are some of the charts tell us we might be facing well let's get into this because uh in one of the scenarios we see a negative 90 percent number and it's just not that good okay anyway let's get right into it so first Goldman Sachs believes that the bear Market is not over in fact they expect that the stock market the S P 500 will essentially be flat all the way through to 2000 and 2023's end uh that's because they believe that the S P 500 will end at 4 000 in 2023.
if you see here we are presently within one percent of that level and that's not very optimistic of an outlook for 2023 they cite the rapid deterioration of economic conditions they suggest that this process is just now beginning and that potentially the bottoming of earnings per shares for companies isn't even in sight that we might not actually see the bottom of earnings per share for companies until potentially late in 2023 or early 2024.
now do keep in mind that in other research Goldman Sachs analysts have suggested that the stock market tends to bottom s the bottom of earnings per share but the question is where is that bottom if the bottoms of earnings per share for companies doesn't actually come around until let's say Easter 2024 then we might not actually bottom out until November of 2023 so that's leading to a lot of Doom and Gloom so much so that when you look at what CFOs is surveyed by Deloitte say 39 that's almost 4 out of ten actually expect stagflation in 2023 that means no growth and high inflation yikes 46 of those Chief Financial officers expect a recession in 2023 which gosh at this point seems like it's already kind of baked in the cake but uh then again you looked at the stock market on The Daily it's like nope nothing's baked in the cake it just seems to get worse and worse and then when you try to compare January of 2020 to what we're seeing now you're actually seeing some serious changes in consumer Behavior as well just consider this if we look at consumers personal savings rates and compare it to Consumers uh credit card spending or I should say credit card debt rates look at the inversion of these curves it's not usually what we think of when we think of an inversion but look at this you've got the green line representing the personal savings rates uh personal savings rate falling to 3.1 percent that's the lowest level on this entire chart and this chart goes all the way back to 2000 16.
3.1 percent personal savings rate that is the lowest level and then when we look at a total revolving debt based on data just released from the Federal Reserve what do we have we have oh dear much more than where we were at pre-pandemic levels now if you adjust this for inflation we're basically at the same trend line for pre-pandemic levels so if you look at real credit spending you see oh yep we're right back at 2019 levels of credit outstanding not so great for the consumers and so that's leading some to say okay well are we actually starting to see any stress in the consumer yet because it seems like you know earnings for last quarter were still pretty good right I mean 63 percent of companies in the S P 500 beat so how bad could it be for consumers well if you look at something that is held up really really well we start seeing a little bit of an inflection point take a look at this a little scary look at this this is a chart showing you how many people are going through TSA checkpoints and all of the airlines have been telling us oh demand has been so resilient you know Airbnb is like oh demand is so great everything's going great but look at what we actually have here which we have not yet seen look at that a downtrend if we actually try to get the angle here without the iPad correcting it there we go look at that downtrend that we have on TSA travel now in case you're wondering about this dip over here that dips about a 60 drop just like what you could get with the courses on building your wealth including the new Elite Hustlers course which Launches on Friday that's this Black Friday when the largest coupon code we've ever had expires so get into means if we add new lectures in the future you're locked in forever no monthly fees one time you're in and if you join before Friday even in that Elite Hustlers course you'll get access for the elite Hustler scores to both live streams the course member live stream and the elite Hustler one but that'll go away after Black Friday unless you buy beforehand where you can lock it in now in case you're wondering about this dip over here this is really your Delta variant right here so you kind of want to take that out and if you take that out out what you see is actually a really nice uptrend recovering out of that pandemic right and we were kind of trending back to what we saw in those sort of pre-covered levels and keep in mind one of the reasons airports sucks so much is because right now the airline industry is basically running at like 95 of what it used to be except there's a lot more demand today or at least we were trending in that direction until just recently here where we've kind of started seeing a little bit of a Slowdown now this slowdown is a Slowdown that we've seen throughout 2022 but it does make you wonder hey is it possible though we've hit Peak earnings for the Airlines and potentially even Airbnb now vacasa will tell you oh yeah Airbnb has hit Peak we are seeing short-term rentals dry up but Airbnb will tell you don't worry in recessions people want to rent out other rooms in their homes or maybe even their own home while they go on vacation I don't know about that but we think we'll see more growth for people renting out rooms on Airbnb then uh than in a normal environment I don't personally agree with that I think there's a potential here we could be hitting Peak Travel and I think that's an important warning to watch for because if we align Peak Travel potentially with a peak housing market and Peak residential Investments we're going to see that consumer spend really plummet on residential Investments solar Travel consumer discretionary spend and where are we starting to see real cracks of consumer discretionary spend well how about Target consider what we heard from companies at the beginning of 2022 we heard oh we have pricing power we have the most PP in the world we have pricing power all day long we can raise prices and people keep spending spending spending what are companies like Target telling us now well it's not good this is something we went through with course members this morning in more detail than we will here but what you're seeing is consumers are showing increasing signs of stress they're pulling back on discretionary purchases later in this document they even say that people are not only pulling back on discretionary purchases but they're running so low on money that they're even starting to have to pull back on household essentials sure Beauty and food are still doing well but sales Trends are softening people are spending more money on like via debt and on their credit cards another thing Target talked about in their earnings call we're seeing more theft and we're seeing more weakness in the last few weeks of October and the beginning of November what is that telling you well it's actually telling you wait a minute we just had Q3 earnings but Target is warning about an inflection in Q4 October right October November December that's Q4 so is it possible that we're actually about to get the really bad earnings in q1 and Q2 for companies related to Consumer spend be it travel discretionary spending like toys or apparel or bathing suits like what Target's talking about or are we also going to see pullback on things like buying Teslas maybe and that seems to be what the market is trying to try to you know parse out right now uh oh maybe everything is going to go in the toilet in the first half of 2023 and maybe Goldman Sachs will be right kind of scary and so this is where when we look at the Federal Reserve we're like hey well the fed's gonna relax on their hiking Pace right and then then maybe maybe like the stock market can stabilize right the problem with that is there's little indication of the market actually pricing in any kind of lid here on the Federal Reserves terminal fed funds rate in fact we're knocking on doors of all-time high expectations for how high the FED is going to hike so you've got a fed that's hiking extremely aggressively to levels that we have not seen in any other prior hiking cycle because folks we are hiking at the fastest rate that we have seen since the 1980s it's insane now sure we're seeing commodity prices fall we're seeing the prices of freight start to plummet and inflect it down this is great these are disinflationary forces that could lead to a nice amount of uh and falling inflation in 2023 and maybe we'll have a floor put under the stock market and we'll all be right back to the Moon maybe this is where we have to look at citibank's three projections and potential targets but let's just start by saying it very simply there's a lot of uncertainty ahead and when we inflect from what we saw at the beginning of 2020 two which was everybody's got pricing power to where we are now nobody's got pricing power and all of a sudden prices are falling and all of a sudden consumers aren't spending anymore you get a lot of fear that earnings are all going to get revised down in Q4 including at a company like Tesla now I believe or maybe hope I'm not quite sure that Tesla will be just fine but what a Citibank thing all right well let's take a look at that city gives us three scenarios in one scenario they actually think that we have so much bearish sentiment right now that everybody is expecting everything to be so freaking bad that they're not actually considering that consumers are overall in a better place than where they used to be even though debt is rising even though savings rates are low we might be in a situation where inflation Falls very quickly and this coming recession ends up being a soft and shallow recession and we end up getting a short squeeze to the upside and we rebound nicely it's one idea for the S P 500 in markets of course then there's a counter argument that Citibank released which is well or we have to actually get through the real recession that the real recession hasn't happened yet that quantitative tightening has barely just started to affect our markets and that potentially some stocks being down over 90 percent it's just the beginning carvana being down over 97 percent and really it's not the inverting of the yield curve that hurts we've got some of the deepest levels of inversion today than we've had in the last 20 years but it's the subsequent steepening that actually leads to real pain for stocks as earnings bottom problem is all recession indicators are looked at in hindsight and the fact of the matter is in the last 100 years stocks have never bottomed before a recession has begun so this kind of makes you hope that if you're a bull that we're already in a recession but if we're not in a recession that maybe that means we have another leg down as Goldman suggests in their bearish scenario they do though also have a balanced scenario this is sort of the middle of the road scenario and this is where they see earnings Falling by at least 10 percent in 2023 and the share price declines that we've already seen might actually be looked at as a down payment so to speak towards earnings per share declines so it's kind of like if share prices are going down don't worry they're going down but we're kind of already pricing in the earnings per share paying that we're going to see so you may as well use that 60 off coupon code down below because why not the worst is over and what generally rallies first well generally stocks do generally an economy rallies its way out of a recession with stocks leading the way and there have only been two bear markets in the last 100 years that have taken more than two years to find a bottom giving a lot of hope that maybe will get some green in 2023 worst case it's two years of pain but then we're up from there who knows a lot of potential pain and this is where some folks say hey if we do get that sort of scenario where all of a sudden consumers you know really do pull back we see those EPS declines the fed's potentially going to have to u-turn on either how high their hiking rates or they'll have to soften on their inflation Target and move their two percent Target maybe to something like a three percent Target either way Goldman Sachs and City give us plenty of warnings that earnings per share are coming down we know this has been coming for probably the last six months the question now is which companies and this is the hard part which companies are going to have the best opportunity to prove that their earnings per share already took the hit or are no longer going to take as bad of a hit as markets expect things won't be as bad as expected and could rebound out are those going to be companies like the chips Nvidia AMD tsmc are they going to be Autos companies like Tesla pole Star Ford not really good estimates looking out there for four right now especially in that EV sector or is the best thing to do to just stick with oil even though oil prices are starting to decline on the other hand if we look at our sectors Consumer Staples the S P 500 they're only down three percent year-to-date could that be the place to continue to hide or are those Consumer Staples going to start getting sold off like Walmart once we rotate back into maybe a tech rally which has fallen somewhere around 26 percent year to date I don't know but what I do know is there's a lot of pain out there and I hope to talk to you
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