저자: Supe · 한국인
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미국 주요 투자 대가(버핏, 드러켄밀러, 피터 틸, 국민연금) 포트폴리오 변화를 소개. 반도체 강세(샌디스크·마이크론·AMD), 브로드컴 조정, 미 연준 금리 인상 가능성 감소, 엔비디아 AI 인프라 금융 구조 우려, 드론 관세 수혜 미국 기업 언급. 버핏은 14분기 만에 순매수 전환하며 구글 비중 확대, 피터 틸은 아마존·전력 인프라 투자.
다듬은 글
hello. This is Supe from Supe, the man who studies money. The entire portfolio of a master investor was revealed early this morning. Will Buffett started using cash for the first time in 14 quarters, and Drocketmiller pushed ahead with new investments. Birekman bought back the stock that he had failed to buy last time.
Above all, Peter has returned to the stock market. Which stocks did they actually buy? Let's analyze it together with the main briefing . Before we begin, if you would like to continue receiving videos like this, please subscribe, like, and leave a warm comment . Your interest makes me happy. thank you Let's check the current status of the four major US indices.
The Dowsence fell 0.5% this week, and the SMP 500 rose 0.4% . The Nasdaq rose 1.1% . Long-term bonds were adjusted down 0.9% to 9% . It was a week where value stocks fell while growth stocks rose . Looking at WTI futures, it went down to 77 last week but has come back up to 82. The power struggle between the U.S.
and Iran continues. The overall stock market is no longer reacting, but energy companies rose along with WTI as it increased . If you look at the SMP 500, you can see green companies here and there. It looks like it is moving by sector. Looking at the three sectors that showed particular movement, the first is semiconductor companies, which rose significantly.
SanDisk rose 35%, Micron 10%, and AMD 6% . Expectations for a memory supercycle have risen again as prices are projected to increase by more than 10% in the third quarter . The second one is Broadcom . It fell 8% due to concerns from the financial sector . Additionally, there are even reports that WM Wave, which was acquired by Broadcom, is vulnerable to security threats .
Everyone else is rebounding, but I'm the only one taking a correction. Third, Netflix, invested in by Bill Lechman, rose 5% . Let's look right at the bottom of the theme ETF . If we look at the sectors on the left first, there are as many as three sectors that hit new highs this week . It's healthcare, finance, and utilities.
There was also energy that contributed to the large rebound this week. Conversely, the consumption cycle system received a 1.3% adjustment . Looking at value and growth, large-cap growth stocks took a 0.1% and 1% correction, while the rest hit new highs . Dividends, VI, and SCH hit new highs, and Curved Calls rose 1.3%.
In the growth theme, Cloud and Cyber Buan hit new highs, and SXX rose 1.1% . Looking at innovation, Bitcoin received a 1.6% correction. The rate of decline from the peak has dropped from 50.4% to 4% . Let's look at the decline rate of Big Tech and high dividends from their peaks . If we look at the big tech stocks on the left first, Tesla saw a significant rebound this week .
It rose 2.7%, leaving a 31.4% decline from its peak . And as I mentioned earlier, Broadcom saw a significant drop. The rate of decline from the peak has increased to 6%, up to 20.6% . Looking at the high-dividend stocks on the right, Verizon rose 2.3% and Altria took a 3.4% correction . If you look at the Tesla stock chart, the stock price plummeted along with the earnings announcement.
The stock price, which had dropped to $300, is now $342. As the hand is moving forward, it is regaining its direction . There is also talk of a merger with SpaceX . Elon Musk's stake in Tesla is 19.9%, which is insufficient to take the lead. They might want to exercise a single controlling stake through a merger .
This topic will likely surface once the locked-up volume of SPEX is absorbed to some extent, so investors should take note. If you look at Altria's stock chart, it hit a new high in March of this year but failed to surpass $75. After repeatedly holding back and falling a few times, the stock price finally collapsed once following the earnings announcement .
It has currently dropped to $65 . It is at the bottom of the box range . The current dividend rate is 6.52%, which is a high rate compared to 52%. Let's look at stock prices and exchange rates together. This week, the SP 500 rose 0.4% and the exchange rate rose 0.6%. The exchange rate, which had been falling until last week, has finally started to rebound .
It went up from 1411 won to 1419 won. So, if we had just held onto our stock account, it would have been a week of 1% gains. Looking at the trading status of overseas stocks, SpaceX ranks first in net purchases. Net buying of 132.5 billion won came in. Tesla has also entered the rankings for the first time in a while.
We took 3rd place . Elon Musk's approach is different from other CEOs. We have listed two companies on the NASDAQ, and both remain in the top tier. If a merger occurs, the market capitalization will rise among the NASDAQ based on current standards . Just as SpaceX is transforming into an AI company, I look forward to seeing Tesla's autonomous driving and robots come together in harmony .
If you look at the stocks being sold on the right, Nevius is in first place . Neocloud companies saw a significant rebound this week, and many investors realized profits. If you look at the chart for Nevius's stock price, it surged 50% over the past week. In the earnings announcement on the 12th, adjusted Appvida turned profitable with $230 million.
The previous high is not far off now. Revenue relative to data center capacity is also projected to triple. Since the price rose with increased trading volume, you can look forward to an increase in contracts going forward . Looking at the returns of domestically listed overseas ETFs, the aerospace theme rose along with SPEX as it increased.
Uju Tech took all the top spots. Conversely, ETFs that declined came from countries outside the United States. Representative countries include Latin America, Indonesia, China, and Europe. Let's look at five key issues for our stock accounts this week . The first is about price indicators. As the producer price index fell short of expectations, the likelihood of an interest rate hike has diminished.
It was an article that helped boost the stock market. Looking at the price indicators in more detail, the Consumer Price Index remained unchanged from the previous year and month, while the Producer Price Index fell short of expectations. In particular, it appears to be stabilizing as energy and gasoline prices fall.
With employment uncertain and prices meeting expectations, the possibility of an interest rate hike is disappearing . I mentioned last week that a freeze on the benchmark interest rate had become the prevailing trend. The possibility has increased this week. It went up from 55.6% to 67.5%. The current market reflects one interest rate hike .
If it is frozen in September and October, the concerns will be resolved. Uncertainty could disappear all at once in conjunction with the midterm elections . The stock market can view this as a positive development. Bascent Jangga issued 30-year bonds at the highest interest rate this week. The winning bid rate was 5.2%, the highest in 25 years .
Although the likelihood of an interest rate hike has decreased, the national debt has reached $40 trillion and is approaching its highest level relative to GDP. How did the market react to this? The answer is in the futures prices of short- and long-term interest rates . As CPI and PPI slowed, futures prices rose and bond yields fell.
However, weak bidding results gave back some of the gains in the 30-year bond. The range is n't very wide. The second article is Ganse, who is visiting after a long time . The U.S. says it will impose tariffs of up to 100% on imported drones and parts . Although it is a measure to keep China in check, Korea will also be subject to a 15% tariff.
If you look a little closer at the tariff structure announced by Baekgak-gwan, a 100% tariff is applied if the weight exceeds 25kg or if the item is sensitive to security . Allies including Korea are 15%, and the UK is 10%. Here is an investment hint. Draws produced and developed in the US do not have a Ganse.
In other words, this enables price competitiveness . Which company will receive it ? I have brought five representative U.S. drone-related companies. Unusual Machines is a parts supply chain company, and Ondas is a company related to magnetic drones and docking systems. Among drone companies, Aero Binary is a large one.
All five of these companies are pretty good. I will mention just one company. Aero Binary is a leading U.S. drone defense company. We directly manufacture the Pyoma reconnaissance drone and the Switchblade self-destructing drone, and our major customers are the U.S. Department of Defense and our allies .
The higher the tariffs imposed on Chinese drones, the more U.S. companies with a domestic production base will benefit. The opportunity to win orders may increase . If you look at the stock price chart, it surged to nearly $400 at the beginning of the year before falling to $140. It had fallen by more than 60% from its peak.
Recently, it rebounded back to the $190 level. As tariff barriers on Chinese drones rise, expectations are once again being reflected that demand for U.S. drones and government funding will increase . Individual investments in drone-related companies can be burdensome due to high volatility. In such cases, it is also a good idea to approach it through ETFs.
DRNZ is a representative pure drone ETF. Looking at year-to-date returns, there is a mix of blue companies recording losses and red companies generating profits. The third news is about Jensen Wang . An issue has emerged that could mark a new turning point for AI investment . Nvidia has become a bank providing 700 trillion won in new funds .
NVIDIA's CDS spread has already widened significantly as rumors of circular shareholding began circulating. Are they suggesting that we all share the risk associated with AI investment ? A new type of finance has been born. To put it simply, it is similar to a real estate loan. For example, real estate is invested with 3 billion won in equity and 7 billion won in loans.
Once the building is completed, you could either sell the units or operate the rental business directly. In this case, the loan is naturally processed using the building as collateral . Based on the same principle, you view a data center as a building and take out a loan using GPUs as collateral. To be precise, it is a loan for computing power .
Just as real estate collects monthly rent, data centers collect usage fees. If you calculate the profitability, they say that the principal can be recovered in 2 to 3 years . Nvidia wouldn't be doing such a good business alone. Financial firms such as BlackRock, Apollo, and Blackstone are participating .
NVIDIA plans to cover up to 25%, and the bank will be responsible for the remainder. We are scheduled to raise $5 billion in funding for AI infrastructure . The focus that had been on Big Tech's cash flow while investing in AI has now found a different outlet. AI is moving to the next stage. Behind every good business, there is always risk .
When new GPUs are released, the lifespan of assets may decrease due to a sharp drop in used prices, and usage fees may plummet once GPU supply is available. Or, if the electric furnace price rises significantly, profitability will likely deteriorate . You are not yet concerned about vacancies or a decline in collateral value, but once loans actually proceed and the market expands, this item will become a tool for measuring bubbles .
I will continuously monitor the situation and let you know immediately if a trigger occurs. The AI that Jensen Hang envisions is on a completely different level from ours. While we are currently thinking that agent AI will utilize AI, Jensrang is looking ahead to robots, autonomous driving, and even space.
They say there is still a long way to go. Investment will continue until then, and more bubbles will form . This is not a time to judge rashly . Since excessive leverage and borrowing are dangerous, I should invest at a level I can manage. The fourth article is about SanDisk. It is content that lends strength to the ND Dia story.
The demand for AI data centers is driving up the NAND flash market . SanDisk projects sales growth in the mid-to-high 10% range annually from 2028 to 2030 . If you look at SanDisk's stock chart, it has broken out of the downward channel and risen. It turned upward. Other semiconductor companies are showing a similar trend this week .
There were quite a few companies that performed well . AI investment is no longer driven solely by corporate cash. If money from banks and capital markets flows in, data center certificates could be processed even faster . Past bubbles also grew as financial capital poured in once the potential of the technology was proven by results .
AI is also following the same path. The rise may continue, but you must be cautious from the moment expectations outpace actual performance. The fifth article is about Warren Buffett significantly increasing his stake in Google . Many of you already know this. Google has entered the top 3, and there is one more new stock to buy .
What did Buffett buy additionally? You are probably curious about the portfolios of other investment masters besides Buffett . I will analyze the portfolios of four people: Vireckman, Drummiller, Peter Thiel, and Warren Biffin . Please check if there are any stocks I have invested in. Let's start with Wallon Buffett.
Buffett had been selling stocks and accumulating cash for four years . However, starting this quarter, we used the accumulated cash for the first time. We switched to net buying for the first time in 14 quarters . Buffett holds a total of 45 stocks, and among them, he made one new purchase and seven additional purchases .
Google is included in the seven . There was a similar amount of selling, but the proportion of buying was larger. The portfolio weight increased by 5% compared to the last quarter . If you look at the top seven stocks that Buffett invests in, Apple still holds the number one spot, followed by Google .
Google's share of Alphabet A and C combined is 12.6%. It has become more than Coca-Cola. I never thought there would be two growth stocks in Buffett's portfolio, but the world is changing a lot . The stock Buffett newly purchased is Delta Airlines. Was it an investment made with aviation demand in mind?
Or did they buy during the correction in airline stocks when oil prices plummeted due to the war in Iran ? If you look at Delta Airlines' stock chart, the time Buffett bought was when the stock was bottoming out and starting to rise. It appears to have been purchased in the $60 range, but it has now risen to $90 .
You should avoid chasing the price . Google increased it by as much as 83% in the second quarter . The $10 billion invested in the third round was at a 6% discount to the stock price at the time. Since the stock price was high at that time, it was approximately $350 . In other words, you can consider it as having been purchased at the current price level .
Buffett revealed that he personally invested in the acquisition of Google. Did they judge that the cash flow is good, like Jensen's ? We should look forward to the cash flow from search ads, the growth of Jamina, and the data center. Conversely, one company that has significantly reduced its weight is Kroger .
Kroger fell from $73 to $56 in the second quarter. Although the exact reason for the sale has not been disclosed, same-store sales grew by only 1%, and concerns about profitability are growing due to price competition . Burke reduced its stake by 22% . It appears that after confirming slowing growth, investors are shifting funds to companies with high expected returns, such as Google, to realize profits .
The next investment reward is Drawcan. He is a figure whom many individual investors follow because of his good investment track record . Let's take a look at what changes occurred in the second quarter . I bought 64 out of the 93 stocks I hold and sold 34. I have newly purchased as many as 31 stocks.
The item in 1 changed after 3 months. That's incredible execution. The biggest change is cash. I took cash like Buffett last quarter, but I increased my stock holdings again this quarter. It increased significantly by 7% to 19.7%. That means there were that many times to invest. Looking at the top three titles, Natera has the largest share as expected, followed by TSM and STM.
I bought more of most of the stocks . In particular, INS’s Insmad purchased both the main stock and the co-op . The reason Drummiller strongly bought Insmed is due to the growth potential of new drugs . This is Droketmiller, who is still very interested in biotech companies . If you look at Insmed in more detail, it is a pharmaceutical company that targeted rare diseases with a shortage of treatments.
Simply put, it is a place that makes medicine for patients who have difficulty breathing . Ari Case, which is already on sale, is generating steady revenue, and the newly launched Brins Freedo is also growing rapidly. In addition, we are expanding our growth momentum by developing treatments for heat-related diseases.
Looking at the stock price chart, I bought it when it was falling sharply . The additional purchase price appears to be around $100. Since it increased the existing stock by 91%, it has almost doubled . I bought Cotion while averaging down . This is a strategy to recover quickly upon a rebound. For trading investors, the ability to manage cash is important.
Besides Insmad, there were quite a few other stocks I purchased. Notable examples include Google and Delta Airlines, which Buffett has purchased . Whether it is a coincidence or not, Buffett and Drum Miller invested with the same vision this quarter . However, Drummiller's main buying sector is healthcare.
The focus is still on new drug development . It seems like we are waiting for AI and bio to combine, right? We should also prepare in advance. Next is Birekman, known as the Little Buffett. He has already revealed his position in several interviews. Looking at Bireckman's top seven stocks, Uber is the largest at 12.7%, followed by Brewfield and Microsoft .
If you look at the proportion of just the seven awards, it is significantly concentrated at 76.8% . This quarter, I bought everything except Brufield and Amazon. This is Ekman, who is boldly placing weight on what he has become convinced of. However, if you only look at the top stocks, you might miss Ekman's changes .
This time, I bought Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, Icon, etc., and sold big tech companies Google and Amazon. In particular, Google switched stocks while strategically selling. This time, it seems like they included Netflix to make up for the Seoyokjeon. It was 2021 when Vireckman invested in Netflix. At that time, the stock price, which was $70, dropped to $40.
Ekman, judging it to be undervalued, proceeded with the purchase, but then the basement door opened . As it fell further, the stock price dropped to $18. Unable to endure the pain of the crash, Birekmer cut his losses. Unfortunately, not long after, the stock price started to rise again . Since the stock price rose to $130, if you had held on, you could have made more than three times the profit .
And now, B-Raekmun has attempted to buy again. Since I bought it in the second quarter, it should be $80 . Since the current stock price is $78, it is highly likely that it is still in a loss zone. I’ll have to watch and cheer to see how this purchase ends . Let's take a look at Petertle's portfolio, which was disappointing after leaving the first quarter stock market.
I'm back . He is a person known for being very good at investing. His investments are bold, but since the deal can close in just one quarter, you shouldn't chase them recklessly. Still, his purchase has some insight, so I will take it as a reference. Peter Thiel purchased a total of eight stocks this time .
The port size has also come in quite large . It is a move that goes beyond the level of gradually injecting cash and strongly bets on the growth potential of the selected industry . The company with the largest weight among the investment stocks is Amazon. It's 28.2% or 2%. As expected, I made a significant entry into one of the big tech companies .
However, the remaining sectors are not Big Tech. Broken down by sector, I invested in energy and utilities. You can find the answer if you look closely at individual companies. We captured the starting point of AI demand through Amazon and aimed to directly benefit from data center power demand with Vistra .
These are stocks betting on similar crude oil price increases and Argentina's reforms, while the remaining utility companies are Masayoshi Son and regional power companies. They acquired the entire power supply necessary for the AI era, centering on Amazon . Peter Thiel believes that the AI theme will expand into infrastructure.
The unusual thing is that they chose Amazon instead of Google. If you look at the stock price charts of similar energy companies among those purchased, the stock price has been moving sideways since the purchase . After falling slightly, it has been consolidating. Peter bought, and the stock price hasn't risen yet .
This implies that, among the AI themes, the adjustment for power infrastructure is not yet complete . Since semiconductors and neocloud are rebounding as they have recently, we should also look forward to power infrastructure . Now that we've looked at investment masters, we should take a look at Korea's representative, the National Pension Service.
Let's look at the proportion of domestic and overseas markets. According to the disclosed information, it is based on the end of May . Overseas stocks account for 35.2 % and domestic stocks for 29.4%. Domestic stocks increased by 8%, while overseas stocks decreased by 1%. The reason is that Korean stocks have risen relatively more.
Since I already hold a large proportion of domestic stocks, I am steadily reducing them. The overseas stock portfolio was revealed yesterday. Let's take a look at which stocks were traded. If you look at the top three stocks invested in by the National Pension Service, they are full of big tech companies.
If you invest in the SM 500 ETF, the weighting would be similar to this. It can be seen that the weight is commensurate with the size of the market capitalization . Among these, the stocks I sold this time were M, B, and D, while I made additional purchases of the remaining stocks. If you look at the notable trading, there was capital movement even within the AI .
We increased the proportion of memory, equipment, and storage devices, and SpaceX is also correct in all of this. On the other hand, I sold Nvidia, Hanwell, Salesforce, FedEx, and Uber . We realized some profits from leading AI stocks and expanded our investments into supply and aerospace . Looking at the portfolios of investment masters, it seems they traded based on their respective investment philosophies.
Birekman strategically sold Google and bought Netflix, which became the OTT winner . Drummiller is still investing in healthcare and has newly added Google. Peter Thiel placed Amazon at the center of his AI investment portfolio and included electric and soft-net companies. Wallace Buffett switched to buying for the first time in four years.
The main stock was Google. The four investment gurus appear to have different colors, but they all suggest that the AI era is not over. Which companies do our subscribers find attractive? I would appreciate it if you could leave a comment . Let 's take a look at dividend companies next week. It is from August 17th to the 28th.
There are Cellbron, Ekinix, Microsoft, Amgen, and Johnson . Dividend investors, please take note. Looking at the following major schedule, there are not many companies announcing earnings, but these are key companies from which to check U.S. domestic market trends . Through Home Depot and Lowe's, you can see how much high interest rates are putting pressure on the housing market .
Walmart can get a glimpse of the state of American consumers' wallets through the sale of daily necessities and average transaction value . New corporate guidance will serve as an important criterion for judging the direction of the economy . Finally, I would like to share a famous quote by Wallon Buffett.
An investor is like a batter who is not called a strike . You can wait until a good ball comes . It's been a while since a good ball that Buffett had in mind came along. That's Google. I wonder if it will be a solo run or a hit. Apple has been holding onto it for 10 years, so we will have to wait and see how long Google will hold onto it .
I'll be right back after checking out the event . Today, I would like to introduce a site where you can easily and quickly check information on US ETFs . This is Fund, an ETF information platform operated by Samsung Asset Management. Many of you are already using it, right? I also use it frequently.
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If you enjoyed today's video, please subscribe and like . Have a pleasant weekend and a happy time.
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