저자: TomLee · 외국인
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AI는 버블이 아니며 노동력 부족과 자동화 수요로 Magnificent Seven(빅테크)의 성장은 실질적 문제 해결에 따른 것이라고 주장. 엔비디아는 150→700달러로 올랐어도 수요가 실재하고 적정가치라고 봄. 다음날 CPI 발표로 단기 변동성은 있으나 짧을 것으로 전망. 3월 금리인하 가능성을 시장의 15%보다 높게 봄. 비트코인은 현물 ETF 승인과 대규모 유입으로 상승 여력 존재. 진행자는 빅테크 비중 확대와 '황금 10년'을 언급하며 risk-on 입장을 밝힘.
다듬은 글
joining us now is one of the top strategists on the street fund Strat managing partner head of research not the drummer Tom Lee Tom it's great to have you back on that waiting thing this is not new necessarily but it keeps it keeps growing that bowling ball on top of a pencil as I've called it continues to get larger and heavier is it a reason at all for Tom Lee to be worried um Brian it's not I think one thing the viewers have to keep in mind is the world is short of workers right there's a global labor shortage and there's demand for AI and Automation and it's these seven companies or the you know the eight or n that are providing these Solutions so their Market Cap's growing not just because the US economy is growing it's they're really solving Global problem so I don't think that is necessarily a bad thing it's just it's showing you how important Technologies become US tech companies yeah I maybe and Nvidia okay I mean I I think now we're contractually obligated to mention Invidia at least four times an hour I'm kidding sort of Tom Nvidia basically the same size now as Amazon it's part of that group that we talk about so much is it a Mania is it deserved you just mentioned AI but I mean we've gone from 150 bucks to 700 bucks in less than two years I mean it's pretty astounding to see the ascent but we also know in the last 2 years there's been a lot of transformation and I think really critical mass reached for a so to to us it doesn't seem like a bubble it it you know there's real demand there we're going to find out next week obviously but if there is a shortage of workers we know that over time we have to replace salaried workers with silicon and and you know that could be several trillion a year of demand so I I think it's too early to say it's a bubble how big of a deal if at all maybe it's not is tomorrow's consumer inflation date at 8:30 in the morning well it's it's very important because we know the FED has only two inflation reports before the March meeting it's this report and the one next month um and so I think you know that the bond Market's certainly going to react I do think the Bond Market's been anticipating kind of a hot CPI reading tomorrow so I think if it's a if it's it's a worse than expected report I think the stock market could be nervous shortterm but you know given how sentiment is and and flows have been finally turning positive for stocks I think it would be short lift weakness yeah pretty amazing um you're not expecting a March cut though are you Tom it's May that's right uh I mean I I'd say the the Market's been pushing out the timing of cuts towards May um you know I think one of the sort of sticky points in the CPI report has been auto insurance and and is that lingers that makes the FED nervous about you know whether or not we're getting towards 2% but I I do think the odds of a March cut are better than than the 15% that are priced into the Futures markets yeah Tom I want to switch gears to bitcoin it's been a big uh couple of days really for Bitcoin I'm sure you watched the Super Bowl last night I don't know if you caught this I did and then I paused and I took a picture of my screen and I tweeted that out CBS showing Jay-Z and Beyonce because of course everybody knows Jay-Z and Beyonce but look at that many people may not have noticed the guy that were're hanging out with the dude with the beard on the right to the viewers right of course Jack dorsy founder of Twitter now Financial firm block he's wearing a Satoshi Nakamoto sweater Satoshi Nakamoto said to be the inventor of Bitcoin which hit 50,000 for the first time in more than two years why am I bringing this up uh just a gratuitous Beyonce check but hey what a run in Bitcoin what's changed just the last two or three weeks Tom well we know that the ability to buy Bitcoin has changed a lot Brian with the launch of the ETFs and there are multiple ETFs and it makes it easier now for people who have traditional brokerage accounts to buy Bitcoin I think it's a wonderful development because it is really allowing people to finally have exposure without having to necessarily store their own private keys and I think it was great to see that sort of subtle reference at the Super Bowl so just to recap what Mr Tom Lee said he is not worried about a bubble guys there is massive demand for AI he said the Magnificent Seven are the ones solving the problem and that's why they're the ones with the biggest Market share gaining it the fastest that's why everything is overweight in the max 7 because they're the ones that are solving the problems with AI That's where all the money has to go to keep investing in AI he said we have a global labor shortage right now so that gives room for more productivity when we get these workers into new jobs he said Nvidia with it even going from 100 to 700 is still not a bubble he said they have massive demand unlike anything they've seen and they still think it's fairly value he said there's some if there's bad news from the CPI report which there was this morning it should be shortlived he's not expecting it to be long he thinks the markets are already priced in some bad news for the CPI a possible rate cut in March so I don't know what the markets are pricing in they're pushing it back a little bit Tom Lee is not against it he said he's higher he's given it more than a 15% chance if you didn't know Bitcoin etf's got approv and they are having massive inflows guys massive massive inflows pushing Bitcoin going way way way to the moon it's over $50,000 a coin or a share whatever you want to call it anyway that wraps up this video guys Tom Lee the great investor he's not worried about a bubble I'm not worried about a bubble I'm full risk on and I think we're going to have a a golden decade guys but uh you do what you will with it and I'll catch you in the next one
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