저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
라우어의 무한매수법(QLD/TQQQ)을 2012~2024년 12년간 40백만원 기준 백테스트한 결과, 단순 적립(QLD 약 30배, TQQQ 보유 약 59배)보다 수익률이 낮았음. 원인은 익절 후 현금 대기 기간이 길어 상승장에서 수익을 놓치는 것. 하락장에서는 현금 소진과 강제 손절 위험이 커서 2021 고점 시작 시 TQQQ 기준 연 수익률이 낮게 나타남. 시작 시점이 저점에 가까울수록 성과가 크게 개선되므로 무한매수법은 현금 여력이 충분할 때만 유효한 도구라는 결론. 레버리지 배율이 높을수록 현금 소진 위험이 커짐.
다듬은 글
Lauer's infinite mass method. If you are a leverage investor, you have probably heard of it at least once. It is a method of continuously buying according to a set rule whenever TQQ or QLD falls, taking profits when it rebounds, and starting over. In fact, there are many people who have been investing using this method for years, and it is a strategy that gains renewed interest whenever a market downturn occurs.
However, I was curious about one thing. Is a strategy of calculating the price every day, buying more when it drops, and taking profits whenever it rebounds really more advantageous than simply accumulating QLD steadily ? So, I tried running Nao's infinite buying method exactly as it was with the same amount of 40 million won .
It's not just once or twice, but 12 years. However, what surprised me most when I saw the results was not the final rate of return. With this strategy, the time the money was sitting idle was far scarier than the moment it was lost . Conversely, when the market collapsed the most, much more cash was needed than expected.
In the end, the outcome of the Infinite Buying Method was not decided by the average cost we commonly think of . Today, when establishing QLD, I will place infinite buy orders for QLD and TQQ under the same conditions and verify with numbers when this strategy is strong and when it collapses . First, let me go over the things that are easy to get confused about.
The Infinite Mass Method is a name created by someone named Rao . It may look similar to water when you just drop it, but it is actually a systematic method with strictly defined rules. So, the verification we are doing today is not just based on intuition, but follows the exact rules set by Lauer .
The rules work like this. I split my money into 40 installments. I do that every day; if the price is below the average, I buy a little more, and if it is above, I buy less. Then, when it rises about 10% above the average price, I sell everything at once to take profits and start the next cycle over from the beginning.
But even though I've used up all 40 episodes, if I keep watching... At that time, you sell 1/4 of the quantity you have to make bullets again . This entire fixed rule is Rawer's non-function method. The key point is that you are not trying to predict whether the stock price will go up or down . I don't care about the direction at all.
Instead, you increase the quantity by utilizing the range of up and down movement. That is why it is used in leveraged ETFs that fluctuate significantly. Because the more it shakes, the more room there is to hold. Honestly, it's a well-made strategy. There are also many people who have been doing this consistently for 5 or 10 years .
I have absolutely no intention of viewing it negatively . However, there is a hidden cost to this strategy that no one talks about much . Let's start by checking what that is with actual numbers. There are three people who started with the same amount of 40 million won. Kim Deli is an office worker in her 20s and cannot spend much time on investing.
I just buy and collect QLD on a fixed day every month. I do n't even check my account often. Manager Park is diligent. I run the QLD infinite buying method with the same 40 million won. I place a trade every morning, buy when it drops, and take profits when it rises. Chief Choi is going even harder.
It's the same method, but the stock is three times as good . It means that since the shaking is big, they intend to eat that much more. Now, there is a catch when comparing these three. If you only look at the final rate of return, you miss what is truly important . The final asset is a given, but the outcome is decided here by how deeply you were stuck, how long it took to recover , the longest period you were trapped, and the real protagonist of the day : how much cash was needed at the scariest moment, and how long your money had been sitting idle.
First, let's look at the results of running the entire 12 years . Since unlimited buying is all about buying when it's low, it naturally seems like it would be more advantageous than just buying . But the result was a bit unexpected. Manager Park's initial investment in QLD has increased by approximately 19 times.
19 times over 12 years is excellent. Manager Park was also satisfied. But when I looked to the side, there was someone who had bought QLD without any hesitation and just buried it. That person had grown about 30 times . Chief Chae of Sebae is even more dramatic. TQQ infinite buy. This also went up to about 19 times.
It's not bad . But for the people who just bought TQQ and held on... It has increased by about 59 times . Chief Choi, who was diligent, only got to eat one-third of what the person who stayed still got. Why does this happen? With unlimited buying, you sell and exit into cash once the target profit is reached.
The problem is what comes next . If a bull market continues for a long time, the cash that has been withdrawn cannot find a place to enter again and keeps falling back in. The market is going up, but I've taken my profits and am sitting here in cash. If you look into Mr. Park's account for the entire 12 years.
On average, one out of three coins was playing in cash. Chief Choi did even more than that. He played for 12 years on a team where one out of three was always sitting on the bench . So, the biggest cost of the infinite buying method was not the loss. Cash waiting without buying . This had been quietly eating away at profits for 12 years straight.
That’s because it’s a bull market. In a bear market, infinite buying wins. You will think like this. you're right. That is the reason for this strategy's existence. So this time, I turned it back to the person who started at the absolute worst timing— the moment the market peaked in 2021 . I'll follow Choi Bu-sang again.
It is relaxed at first. 1 million won to buy a car . It's dropping a little. I'm adding another 1 million won . It's dropping even more. Another 1 million won. I actually feel good because the average unit price is steadily going down . This is the taste of infinite buying; it puts my mind at ease. The problem started from then on.
In 2022, TQQ falls by more than 80% from its peak . To keep lowering the average unit price, you have to keep pouring in 1 million won, and then another 1 million won, even into this scary range . But there is something cruel here . The moment you lose the most cash is the moment you need the most .
Chief Choi eventually used up all 40 episodes he had prepared. You put in the full 40 million won. Even so, the bottom had n't been reached yet. By rule, if you run out of cash, you must sell 1/4 of your stocks at a loss to make up for lost money. Chief Choi did this eight times during that market downturn .
I confirmed losses eight times at the lowered average unit price. The question changes completely here. The real test of infinite buying was n't whether you could withstand the account dropping. Even at that moment, it seemed like a mental battle over whether there was cash left to put in, but in reality, it was a battle of cash.
However, Assistant Manager Kim, who transferred only to QLD every month without any hesitation during that same 2021 peak. The decline stopped at -40%, and it was the least affected of the three and led the pack. The person who simply and steadily stood up against the two people who diligently diluted their efforts is the winner.
By the time you get this far, the conclusion converges into one. The Infinite Mass Method is not a technique for buying, but a system that supplies cash to the very end . The moment the ten coins dry up, that good rule stops there, too . And one more thing, taxes. The results shown today are based on taxation, but since infinite buying involves continuous profit taking, the difference changes again when taxes are included .
If I were to make unlimited purchases, would Double QLD be better? Would three be better? This is also the question that gets the most divided opinions on YouTube. QLD is double. The extent of the decline and the burden of recovery are relatively less. On the other hand, the profit you make when a rebound comes is just as small.
You can extend the cycle more comfortably . Even in the case that started at the worst possible timing earlier, QLD held its ground at the -60% level. TQQ three times. When a rebound occurs, the explosive power is tremendous. Instead, the risk of running out of cash during a happy decline is much greater.
It dropped to -76% from the same 2021 entry, and those eight forced stop-losses seen earlier came right here. So the conclusion isn't about which product earns more . It is not a battle over whether TQ earns more, but whether my cash is received first or the market rebounds first . Triple raises the difficulty of the fight by two or three levels.
If I have enough bullets and can last a long time, three times the explosive power becomes a weapon; otherwise, three times the power will bring me down first . However, one of the 5 times here is to solve. Infinite buying doesn't always mean losing. When I split the intervals and reviewed them again, in sideways markets or sharp downtrends, infinite buying actually outperformed simply holding the position.
Even in the 2018 market correction and the 2022 market crash. It was less, and the drop was shallower. So, the reason why the infinite buying strategy lagged behind over the entire 12 years is not because the strategy was bad, but because the past 12 years happened to be an all-time bull market where the TQQ rose 59-fold.
The no-function strategy shines in a volatile market that fluctuates and falls, rather than a market that rises steadily. Then the answer comes out naturally. If you look at it this far, you will probably think this. Then, can't I just collect QLD normally, and then mine QQQQ infinitely when a real crash comes?
yes. I would do the same. And the data supports this exactly as well. The outcome depends entirely on when that triple infinite buying started earlier. Manager Choi, who started at the peak in 2021, has an annual return of 1,400 on the principal. It only reached %. However, what if you started the same strategy after the market had dropped 50%?
It becomes 2.4 times. If you started near the real bottom where it collapsed to -70%, it is 3.2 times, or 32.5% per year. It is the same event with the same rules, but the result diverged two to three times just due to the starting timing. So, unlimited buying on TQQQ is not like an engine that is always kept running, but rather closer to a weight that is only pulled out in a burst .
You save up QLD little by little while accumulating bullets, and then use those bullets to start TQQ infinite when the market truly collapses. It works on the exact same principle as the plan I mentioned last time: usually keeping the magnification low, and only increasing it when fear reaches its peak.
To be honest, after the 70% plunge, even those who just bought TQQ and held on grew 3.4 times. Because the rebound was so big. However, that person took another hit of -74%, while the person who started with infinite buying had a shallower drop of -55% . So, aim for a big hit after the crash, but if you can't withstand the roller coaster ride, buy indefinitely to reduce the decline while accumulating .
The key point is that either way, the starting point is the crash. I do not think the question of whether the Buhan Mass Method is a good or bad strategy is very important . There is only one real question. Do I have the cash to keep living according to the rules even when my account is cut in half?
If available, infinite buying can be a good tool . If you don't have one, doing nothing and steadily establishing it might actually be a better strategy. Ultimately, what I needed to look at before the rate of return was a structure that would allow me to hold out until the end. This has been Yeouido Dad.
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