저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 저유가는 인도·중국에 긍정적이나, 코로나 공급망 충격으로 인도 기업 실적 하향이 추가로 나올 것이며 증시는 단기 반등 후 본격 회복까지 수개월이 걸린다. 시장 상황: 인도 증시는 메탈주 매물로 상승분을 반납하며 변동성이 컸고, 유동성 주도 반등이라는 진행자 진단이 나왔다. 코로나 영향: 인도 제약 원료의 약 70%, 자동차 부품 약 25%가 중국산이라 실적 타격이 불가피하며, 일부만 주가에 반영됐다고 봤다. 유가·금융 시장: 유가 폭락으로 채권·단기자금 시장 혼란이 있으나 2008년 같은 금융위기는 아니라고 봤다. 저유가는 인도의 수입 부담을 줄여 경제에 도움이 된다고 평가했다. 미국 증시: S&P500은 약 19% 하락했으며, 추가 하락은 3~4% 정도로 보고 매도 대부분은 끝났다고 판단했다. 다만 본격 회복은 수개월 뒤로 봤다. 미국 금리·경기: 10년물 금리가 처음으로 1% 아래로 내려갔다는 언급이 있었다. 트럼프의 임금세(급여세) 인하 등으로 미국 리세션은 가능성이 낮다고 봤다. 바이러스 확산: 미국·인도는 민주주의 국가라 중국처럼 강제 봉쇄가 어려워 확산이 길어질 수 있다고 봤다. 인도 확진자가 적은 이유로 악수 대신 namaste 인사를 꼽았다. 투자 전략: 인도 실적이 탄탄한 장기 우량주를 바겐세일 구간에 저가 매수할 시점으로 봤다. 금융주(Yes Bank 이슈 관련)와 소비재, 인프라 관련주에 관심을 보였다. 펀드의 인도 비중은 약 20%이며 가격 상황에 따라 늘릴 수 있다고 했다.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to your stocks are I'm Ashley Souza with me is Samara birdie Butler as we speak the markets are holding with good gains you know at this point of time remember it's been a very very wobbly trading session metal stocks continued to get hit metal stocks in fact have moved to the low point of the day the issue is in fact that it's a liquidity led rally and in the last fifteen to twenty minutes odd there is some more selling that's crept into our market so we're holding with the gain up front fifty points on that suddenly quickly got sold into the stocks like mind and mind SBI all those stocks are seeing big selling pressure now as we speak in fact we moved into the red so clearly we can't hold on to that 10500 mark and from higher levels we're seeing big selling pressure that's what's preventing us from moving higher from these levels hi Samira hi Nigel Graf ternoon so let's get started first up a top stories market recovers from the day is low key indices inch up over seven 10 two percent but the Mid Cap index underperforms trades in the red and yes mine continues to rise in hopes of higher capital infusion Booth's nifty Bank which is up close to around a quarter odd percent crude crawls up on hopes of Russia joining the supply cut talks BPCL falls after CNBC tv18 learned that the government will continue with LPG subsidy payment despite the privatization of PTCL a mutual fund data indicates and investors keep the faith in February equity inflow rises 42% in a month or non-thesis to come in at 11 month highs RBI Banksy is short covering after the bank says they have enough capital for the next three years Lakshmi will a spank rallies on a network 18 exclusive that core Tech Mahindra Bank has joined the race to acquire majority stake well global markets have been volatile and trade lately as rising number of coronavirus cases have kept a lid on gains moreover the price war between the Saudis and Russia after the OPEC applause meet wide in the fall so how do investors position themselves where is the buying opportunity and how long will this route continue to take us through the interview we have Prashant who joins us and mark mobis or morbus capital as well who joins us on the phone line as you thanks very much mr.
Mobius of course needs absolutely no introduction emerging markets veteran founder of Mobius Capital Partners mark thanks very much great to have you with us here what is your opinion now mark are we I mean does it look like we are you know in the last stages of this panic or we are very much in the middle of it no I don't think we're at the last stages yet simply because you know when you have an interruption of supply chain as you are having now then the the results of this supply chain shortage comes months later when you know the earnings reports come in the sales reports come in etc and the big problem in this case in the case of the corona virus is that it started in China and had the biggest impact in China and when you consider that you know 70% of pharmaceutical ingredients for India come from China 25% of car parts etc etc electronics and all the rest of it then you know there's going to be a hit to earnings and and profits for Indian companies and of course some of that is already in the market but I think not all of it so we have to expect more earnings downgrades going forward MUC it's there is of course a corona virus and then there is this crash we've seen in oil prices the latter has led to serious market dislocations look at what has happened with US bond markets funding overnight funding markets in the US I mean all over the place and that's why the people have made comparisons to what we saw during the global financial crisis of 2008 do you think in some ways you know some of these dislocations can be compared to that period what we are seeing right now some yes some extent but I would say there's no way that we will see the same kind of financial crisis because that one was very specific to the u.s.
as you know the housing problem and we don't see that of course there have been in some cases as you know with the yes Bank where some banks get into trouble because they have funding issues but I don't think it's the same but I do think it's very important to remember that we're in a situation where the the global fear is really what is driving a lot of prices down and it's strange you know I was just reading this someone saying well the lower oil price is very bad for countries well no it's good for India it's good for China it's good for a number of countries so in some ways Saudi Arabia and Russia have stepped in and helped the rescue package for countries like India in the sense that it's going to be less onerous for India to import fuel and that would be good for the economy macht you said is the global panic is leading to lower prices everywhere so let's go to the big market the S&P 500 it's lost 19% in those many days how much more before you think I mean we can we can say well this is it and things start to look a little better I think you're looking at maybe three or four percent more on the downside I think a lot of the selling has pretty much been completed and now people are beginning to think of maybe buying in again which is why you're going to see from day to day some spikes up in the market because people are back in behind but the real recovery will not come for a number of months in my view what about the bond markets across ten years under 1% for the first time mark and more more Pacific commentators and economists in the US are now saying there is a 60 70 percent charge that the US actually does see a real recession this year your thoughts I don't think you're gonna see a recession because you've got Trump there who is going to do his utmost to prevent any kind of recession as you know he's now talking about a wage tax cut which can have a big impact on the economy so I think the u.s.
is in pretty good shape still despite this situation now of course it depends on how fast the corona virus spreads in the US as you know they've been having issues regarding testing and supply of kits which by the way is a worldwide phenomena I'm sure India's having the same problem so although places like Korea have been very diligent and very intensive in their testing other countries have not been able to do as much testing and therefore I've not found as many coronavirus victims you know talking about the virus mark yeah the one difference between because I mean initially people said well what happened in China we will see that same thing happening elsewhere as well but what happened in China was that you know it was one province which was hugely impacted they contained it and it did not spread spread extremely widely to the rest of the country but if you look at what's happening in Europe in the US I mean it's more widespread you're finding cases practically in newer states every day in the US for example so should we really expect the same kind of you know bell curve kind of a pattern to how the you know the case is rising peaking starting to come down as we've seen in China or you think that's unlikely well likely I think we're at the beginning of the bell curves and see the big difference is that in China the government can say today look everyone stay at home and everyone stays at home but in the US and Indian democracy is it's impossible to do that almost impossible to put it that way because India is a democracy it's a free country and so it's very difficult to restrict people in their movements and their behavior of course you can encourage them to do that and you can take certain measures certain legal measures but it's very difficult so I would say that unless there is intense isolation of those people found to have the virus in the US and India and so forth then you can see the spread as great as it was in in in China hmm mark are you in a way I mean your clothes India water as well have you been surprised about I mean so far thankfully and I hope it remains that way the number of cases in India has have been pretty low you know for the size of the country relative to the size of the country any thoughts I mean does that come up in conversations with your peers yes it's really interesting to see that I think frankly one of the reasons this may sound strange but I think the Indian greeting of namaste instead of a handshake may be one factor which is very important I think maybe the MAS say namaste should be encouraged for other countries around the world instead of a handshake ah that's interesting that's very interesting map just to get back to markets you said three four five percent more on the S&P 500 before we hit some sort of a bottom your thoughts on what we are seeing in markets like India what would your advice be to viewers who are watching look out for good bargains if you have companies on your list that have solid earnings over the long term strong balance sheets very important then maybe now's the time to start bargain hunting any wood you won't be more specific mark in terms of where you are seeing some opportunities well you know there is thing now with the yes Bank problem there may be now opportunities in the financial sector because a lot of these stocks have been really bombed out too terribly but as you know we're particularly interested in the consumer space and now with oil prices lower that will be given a boost we believe in India and also companies that are bent on infrastructure supply because I believe mr.
Modi and his party will try the very best to boost infrastructure spending at a rapid pace in your fund month what is the India allocation right now 20 percent I mean is that our equal to that of China okay and and any plans to bump that up or I mean have you made any changes are you going to we'd like to increase it it just depends on where the prices are at any point in time so we're looking at it very carefully mark thank you very much for taking those questions really appreciate your time here and appreciate it and I'd like to say namaste as you said one of the reasons why probably interestingly mark believes that the number of cases in India are limited at this point thanks indeed mark Mobius for joining us here on the show Jason all right thanks so much for that Tarachand well our markets we've seen a big you know move in the last few minutes itself just pull up the last one our child actually of the Nifty you'll see that we have gone from a gain of around 50 70 points we went into the negative trade with a cut of around 25 points I'd that's telling you the story right in the last few minutes you have moved closer on 80 points on the Nifty itself big up move and then suddenly a bit of a slide let's a slip in a short break you come back we'll focus on the markets and we'll also answer some of your crazy with us
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