저자: Kevin · 외국인
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인플레이션은 이미 사라지는 중이며 코스트코 실적과 하락 추세를 근거로 디플레이션 시작을 주장. 연준 금리 5.5%와 10년물 4.6%가 시장을 압박하고 있고, 은행위기가 연준 대출 프로그램으로 가려져 있을 뿐이라 부동산 시장 붕괴 가능성을 경고. 채권은 자본차익 기대로 매수되고 있다고 진단. 정치·게임스탑 등 기타 뉴스와 강좌·스타트업 홍보가 섞여 있음.
다듬은 글
the straw that breaks the camel's back might be here and by the back we mean the entire markets all to fight inflation that might already be completely gone let's talk about all of this and More in today's bottom line report because you might think wait a minute how can inflation be gone prices are still so high just wait until you see what we have to show you but first understand the following you've got Mr Scott Solomon who's been working for T row price for over 18 years suggesting that usually the 10-year treasure yield has to match where the federal reserve's rate of interest is well the federal reserve's rate of interest is actually up here which means we still have more work to do on getting that 10-year up the 10-year right now sits at 4.63 which is ridiculously high well higher than the 4.3 percent most people thought treasuries would end up topping out at this is leading the yield curve to steepen this is a way of generally suggesting that we're coming out of the potential fear of a recession but unfortunately that's driven by pain and all of this to get inflation down which when we look at the Costco earnings report well let's just say might not be that necessary take a look at the Costco earnings report Costco reported four dollars and 20 cents of earnings in the last quarter has a lot to tell us about inflation important to look at this directly it's also worth noting that Costco doesn't seem to have flash mobs or Flash robs as much as other points as much as other businesses rather maybe because of the choke point of the businesses but when we actually look at uh and Costco selling one ounce gold bars now limit to per customer uh what do we find for inflation well Costco tells us that inflation that they had estimated would be in the three to four percent range however for the fourth quarter they actually think that inflation will be closer to that one to two percent range and despite their estimate that it would be as low as one to two percent they actually saw it Trend down in the quarter now what does that look like visually well visually I think what they're suggesting is inflation was expected to be somewhere around this level we'll call that three to four percent well they actually ended up getting was one to two percent but then inflation that's actually started to fall even more at the end of the quarter and so this made me curious about reading the rest of the report and wondering wait a minute what's actually going on with inflation so here we go we have analysts asking Costco directly wait a minute if an inflation is on Pace to be at one to two percent should we be prepared for deflation and Costco literally says the following well look some things are flat some things are up a tiny little bit some things are down and trending down we think that one to two percent is accurate but let's be clear now word for word focus on this red section right here that being said we're not seeing a big change at least it's trending that way who knows what tomorrow brings and as it relates to well as I say if it relates to us we are always pushing prices down as fast as we can we want to be the first to lower prices when those things happen in Drive sales folks this is the start of deflation it is the start of businesses waking up to realize they need to provide value at different price points provide consumers an opportunity to actually buy this means when we go through the rest of the earnings call for Costco it's no surprise people are buying less TVs and less big purchase items and they're spending more on smaller to mid-sized items yet instead of buying as much as they were before they're buying less because ultimately we've got less as a society we have less to spend we have less excess savings by some regards they're all gone and the federal reserve's five and a half percent interest rates are finally starting to break the back of the market some of you have been wondering which of the new verse Pro crash courses are the most popular right now definitely most popular ones how to boost your productivity how to start a profitable side hustle how to pretty popular as well how to renovate real estate and how to never pay taxes in America and Then followed by how to retire early some really good ones in here though but these are some of the top ones remember we've got a price increase tomorrow so do check out the noob averse Pro crash courses at meet kevin.com we expect the prices to go up to about 150 to 200 for each of the crash courses right now you can get into the pre-sale for 79 on top of this it's worth considering wait a minute what actually happens when gas prices go up and people have less money to spend on stuff well as gas prices go up we think that means more inflation that's because Gas and energy do make up a component of CPI well what happens then when people have less money to spend on stuff gas prices up people have less money available to spend on stuff that means there's less demand for goods and services which ends up driving the price of goods and services down but if input costs go up because the cost of freight or the cost of driving around as a real estate agent or whatever go up shouldn't that increase what companies charge people no because what people get charged is usually driven by people's willingness to pay if people are willing to pay less and costs go up guess who loses the business the business has to absorb higher costs or lay people off or cut to crimp or to prevent the crimping of their profit margin even further this is why consumer staples are having so much so much of a problem people realize finally that what these companies had like Target or Macy's was faux pricing power basically they saw revenues go up after the pandemic because everything was more expensive and thanks to inflation these companies Revenue went up but that was full pricing power that was on real pricing power real PP really good PB is driven by people's demand for your product whether prices are high or low and that you can actually increase demand relative to your competition in an environment where margins are being squeezed that's hard to do so be careful to fall into the Trap that oh oh higher gas prices definitely mean inflation's going up and therefore uh you know we're going to be higher for even longer what's happening right now is the Federal Reserve is probably pushing markets to the point where something is potentially likely to break we had a banking crisis at lower 10-year treasure yields than where we sit now quick reminder to is now fundraising many of you are sending us messages suggesting you're excited to have exposure to real estate out of your area real estate at scale getting in on a startup at the ground floor especially with our 1 one-to-one valuation obviously there's Opex and there are fees associated with fundraising but the beauty is whatever we raise is the valuation we are putting on the company there's no excess premium so we're really raising it roughly a cash value learn more about all of that at househack.com very excited about it and I'm going to do everything in my power to make sure this company does as well as possible I'm personally very excited about it and I can't wait for you to join us but obviously with any startup there are risks so read about them at housesack.com consider this folks the banking crisis occurred in March when interest rates were four percent now interest rates are 4.6 percent why are we not hearing more about a banking crisis well we're not hearing more about a banking crisis because the fed's already set up a bailout facility called the bank term funding program which enables Banks to borrow money at levels where their treasury bonds are assumed to have lost zero value even though the market value of their Treasury bonds has plummeted they could still borrow as if they are fully valued so in other words the Federal Reserve is printing money to bail out the bank crisis that they are causing which is actually limiting the fed's awareness that wait a minute maybe they've already gone too far and this is leading individuals to suggest okay is it possible if the FED keeps going like this they're going to break something even greater something they won't be able to quickly solve and the answer to that is yes absolutely what they might end up breaking could be real estate the housing market is not looking great right now and that is more anecdotal over the just the last two weeks last two weeks you can't even get this in the data yet you've got to be in markets to understand this what I want you to do as an experiment is go to an open house this weekend this video is being filmed on Thursday bottom line report go to an open house this weekend I want you to ask a realtor hey uh just wondering you know how's the market changed over the last couple months and you're going to get the following responses it hit a wall it's weird it slowed down I don't know what happened after back to school there were less buyers it's really important to remember that winter is usually a hard time for Real Estate but when you add to that that wait a minute we have rates that we haven't seen since 2006.
affordability is at record lows then it's no surprise that I believe as well as many other agents that price is locally peaked in July of this year that days on the market is rising that Realtors are pushing more agents for Price cuts that new listings are selling for below what old listings were selling for and I know a lot of people they still have this belief that wait a minute wait a minute Kevin but inventory is still at record lows that might be true in fact look inventory can be at record lows consider this you could have 100 homes on the market which could be record low 20 people buying per month means you have five months of Supply right 20 buyers 100 homes five months 20 buyers per month got it try what happens when that buyer level goes down in half because they've all left or got priced out well now all of a sudden you still have a record low number of homes on the market 100.
now all of a sudden you go to 10 buyers uh-oh your month's Supply just doubled you now have 20 months of supply of inventory this is the pain that we're starting to see coming that's going to be a lot harder for the Federal Reserve to fix quickly mostly because of the lack of appetite for the Federal Reserve to actually drop rates quickly in other news GameStop is up eight percent in pre-market as well Ryan Cohen has been named the CEO effective immediately in my opinion this is quite literally an AMC move where you do anything you possibly can to prop up a share so you can prepare for a money raise no guarantees but this is common do something that's going to be very very very attractive to retail shareholders meme the stock up and then dump on the shareholders got enough of that with AMC Barclays tells us that right now while we are seeing a rush to cash we're actually not seeing as much of a stock market shift towards negativity as you would think despite the fact that people are now worried about stagflation which again if you read the Costco earnings call is absolutely ridiculous and I know you might say Hey Kevin come on one earnings report does not make a trend but we've got to be clear here every single day in the course member live stream we are talking about inflation and we are analyzing various different company earnings calls of different Industries every single day and all of them are saying the same thing inflation is gone but remember folks the fed's a clown here fed told US inflation would be short-term transitory it ended up I mean maybe it'll be long-term transitory but they basically told us don't worry we don't need to raise rates inflation will be transitory that was obviously wrong and that was at a time when companies were yelling at us saying every price is going up the inflation is crazy leading indicators were very very clear if we were reading company earnings calls which we do in the course member live streams now the opposite is clear which means the bet is clearly overdoing it but what's interesting is Barclays is actually arguing that equity inflows in September have been mildly positive and one of the reasons we're not seeing the market go down more is because so many people hedged they don't actually have to remove money from markets instead they're able to take some of their profits and add to their long positions kind of a very interesting scenario something that even though hedge funds and I'll have a reputation for negativity it seems like it was a good move it wasn't a good move going into the new year in 2023 pretty much hedge funds got their shorts absolutely burned but in this environment hedging was very very good retail ETF inflows have slowed down though as it seems like maybe retail is pretty heavily allocated and there's less cash available to be able to buy the dip whereas hedge funds have a little bit more cash available and they're taking that new money and not necessarily adding to Longs even though some are they're actually potentially lowering some of their positioning just to sit on the sidelines with some of that cash which could come in to push for an aggressive rally once we get through this short-term Insanity with what's going on with treasure yields but it shouldn't be a surprise that cash is seeing such record inflows here you can see the money market line which is the light blue line here getting record inflows for this year to date well this is obviously something that makes sense because you get no Market risk pure liquidity and five and a half percent yields that's phenomenal you don't even have the bond market risk with your money sitting in money markets it's absolutely incredible now for those who bought treasuries as long as you hold them to duration you also have no Market risk but you lose the liquidity that money markets could give you something to keep in mind now the question is who the heck is buying all of these treasury bonds instead of money markets because think about it you've got the FED dumping bonds Central Bank stumping bonds foreign countries are dumping bonds so many institutions are dumping bonds we've got Bank stumping bonds we've got mutual funds dumping bonds why would you buy bonds when you could just make five and a half percent in yield on money markets well apparently it's households and hedge funds that are actually betting on bonds now there's a risk to this there's a risk that rates go higher and principal value goes down that risk goes away if you hold those bonds forever but what is the real thing that probably households and hedge funds are planning on why would households and hedge funds be buying so many bonds why did 3.6 million treasury direct accounts get open so people could buy bonds well part of it is because it took a while for money markets to actually catch up with treasury bond yields if you went back to November of last year treasury Bonds were yielding around four percent and money markets were still yielding around 2 percent so you got a higher yield for a much longer if you got into bonds but in addition to that there is a real speculative aspect of owning bonds and that is this idea that hey look nobody actually expects these yields to last this long the belief is Something's Gonna Break the fed's going to cut rates very rapidly we'll take the staircase up on rates and we'll take the elevator down that's because something will break the federal be forced to bail something out they'll have five and a half percent worth of rates to cut and what it will do very very well when rates rapidly get cut Bond values problem is you might not actually have time to buy bonds before the market adjusts so quickly because of a Fed rate cut so a lot of bond buying right now being driven by speculation that they'll be capital appreciation problem with that is we're clearly seeing more bonds being sold and being bought on the election front Debaters yesterday at the Republican debate argued that Donald Trump didn't necessarily have electability but reality is based on at least the latest polls he might even have more electability than Joe Biden now Politico here suggests Biden and Trump are essentially tied but if you look at the latest ABC MSNBC poll you see Trump actually beating Biden by nine percentage points so even though you have individuals who might like Mickey Haley for example or Vivek or Ron DeSantis they see the best chance at beating Biden as a vote for Trump political goes as far as suggesting viveka just dropped to place number four following Nikki Haley's move to position number three after Trump and DeSantis shout out to YouTube though yesterday while I was alive with 60 000 of viewers for the Republican debate coverage and Trump coverage and commentary and fact-checking that I was conducting live thank you to all of those of you who were there if you want to watch the summary of the debate that I gave make sure to go on my channel swipe in YouTube meet Kevin uh debate summary it should pop up or go to my channel and find it I just want to shout out YouTube though during the debate stream Fox News actually copyright strike to my channel and shut my stream down all of a sudden it just went offline then YouTube actually stepped in refused Fox's strike and let me continue streaming now unfortunately the viewership went from like sixty thousand to fourteen thousand but YouTube actually said let Kevin add commentary and talk about the debate you can't copyright strike it impressive move by YouTube on top of this a last minute deal from Kevin McCarthy to avoid a government shutdown beginning this weekend isn't likely with Kevin McCarthy making big demands but unfortunately bringing little leverage to the table that's because Kevin McCarthy is stuck between the will and desire of Democrats in the Senate and presidency and that of Hardline Republicans in the house despite all this a gen Z is suggested to be the potentially most struggling generation after the pandemic suggesting that young adults don't understand the fundamentals of borrowing including interest rates they don't realize how high these debt costs are likely to balloon on them economic climate is one where people are paying an increasing amount of their disposable income to service their debts as well as just basic living expenses because once again prices of everything are much higher now than they were before the pandemic the New York Times suggests that gen Z is basically ignorant and gen Z just for references uh deemed to be born between 1997 and about 2012.
29 of gen Z say their finances are better now than prey pandemic compared to 21 across other cohorts maybe they'll realize one of the reasons that's happening is because taking on debt just to sustain and that this is potentially a shaky way to stay ahead gen Z is at a distinct disadvantage because 15 of a credit score is driven by length of your debt history your credit score history that means on average if you're under 25 your credit score is probably only around 679 compared with 714 for all Americans now many of you have really loved the Daily Wealth emails that we send out they're totally for free you can click that newsletter link down below you'll see it next to the link for meet Kevin the new birth Pro crash courses which have a price increase tomorrow at about 11 59 pm and then of course house hack my real estate startup a check out house hack we are now fundraising from all nearly all investors learn more for risk so Daily Wealth email that I want to touch on today is the idea of multiple streams of income so many people still regularly come to me and say but Kevin I need passive income so I'm going to invest in dividend stocks and so you've you get people who are working for their money and they're like oh I'm doing great I'm taking I'm taking passive income in from these dividend stocks by investing in let's say Blue Chip stocks that are trending some of them are trending towards bankruptcy but whatever the cheering passive incomes you're like yeah I just I just made a hundred dollars of passive income they're two big problems with passive income number one say you pay 30 on that passive income now your hundred dollars becomes seventy dollars people like oh but I reinvest it so what you still had to pay pay the money why not instead invest in something that can lead to capital appreciation rather than dividends when you don't need them if you're actively working you generally do not need passive income what you want is passive wealth you want asset appreciation which doesn't get get taxed think about it if you take a hundred dollars and you grow it at ten percent you have a hundred and ten dollars if you take a hundred dollars and then pay 30 percent in taxes because you had passive income and then that grows at ten percent you're at seventy seven dollars and that spread becomes massively wider and wider and wider over time now some people say oh but eventually you'll have to pay the taxes right not necessarily if you follow the tax tricks we talk about in the courses on building growth you might never have to pay taxes on your capital appreciation whether it's stocks or real estate should you have capital appreciation now obviously this is a tax advice although we will be having a new verse Pro crash course on how never pay taxes in America check that out at meet kevin.com it's worth remembering that if you're so excited about passive income while you're still working you might have things backwards focus on capital appreciation minimizing paying taxes in the future when you go to retire that's when it's generally a lot more Savvy or wise to rotate towards passive income do
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