저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프·바이든 지지율 격차와 정책 이슈를 다루며, 바이든 정부의 세금·정부지출 확대를 비판하고 이민 증가가 임금 인플레를 낮춰 연착륙 가능성을 높인다고 봄. 연준 캐시카리 발언(추가 인상 가능성, 연착륙 확률 60%)과 장단기 금리차 급등, 인플레 기대 하락을 설명. 중국 헝다 회장 감시, 트럼프 자산 부풀리기 판결, 소비자신뢰 하락, 테슬라 유럽 규제 우려와 2년간 횡보를 언급.
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in this bottom line report you're going to see why my family is mad at me about what I said about Donald Trump you're going to learn about Insanity in California that might be redundant though but we will also be talking about what the FED just said about rates and recession odds an actual number what's going on with yield curves consumers a little bit on Tesla and more as well as Donald Trump's New York uh oh what did he just get found liable of let's get into it quick reminder pre-sale getting a price increase this Friday for those crash courses on building your wealth and knowledge and ability to make more money so go to meet kevin.com to learn much more about those pre-sale crash courses they're really good and very affordable so someone in my family is now pissed off at me they're pissed because the last video I made was one that suggested Donald Trump right now has a strong chance of actually becoming president again and they really don't like Donald Trump and therefore they believed and concluded that I must be a super Maga Republican and not the 5149 they thought I was in my opinion this couldn't be further from the truth I believe I am still 51.49 very much in the middle although sometimes I wonder in my 5149 or 49.51 but I believe I'm very much in the middle and the purpose of the I believe Donald Trump will win if there were an election held today is very simple right and to conclude the other video and then tell you why this matters or to remind you of the old video Donald Trump is leading all the other Republicans right now there's no one close to touching Trump so right now it's really Trump V Biden and you've got an ABC News and MSNBC poll suggesting Trump is pulling nine points ahead of Biden so literally using left-leaning media sources Donald Trump is beating Biden right now these are just today's facts and it's probably because Biden's fundraising and campaigning has been somewhat non-existent and I believe this is a problem I per personally believe Joe Biden should be very aggressive I believe Joe Biden and look me suggesting that Donald Trump is being aggressive right now and Biden isn't right now he's not saying I'm all in on trouble to bow down to Donald Trump there could be no one better is that what I'm saying but what I am saying is Biden needs to get his act together so what I said in the last video was that bide needs to show some strength whether it's physical mental some youth some both maybe some path towards actually ending the war in Ukraine some path to negotiating with Congress and getting debt ceilings passed here's another one though how about negotiating to lower taxes on the middle class how about some priorities that all Americans care about lowering taxes on the middle class when people are suffering this is unfortunately in contrast to what's actually happening the impression is that the Biden Administration is sending more and more IRS Auditors out to audit individual Americans that during the Biden administrations people's venmo transactions and resale of Taylor Swift tickets will now be subject to IRS audit that does not make you feel like taxes are being lowered it makes you feel like taxes are being raised the rains are getting pulled in the screws are getting tightened on you it feels like more government not less Donald Trump can simply argue 2017-18 decks cutting jobs act I'll bring you 2.0 and lower taxes again and he did right now whether or not you like Donald Trump or not there was a big tax overhaul that benefited a lot of Americans and all you have to do is go into a campaign going I actually did it what'd you do you know yes we've got the inflation reduction act which is not going to reduce inflation we know that and that's not a dis on on a Biden it's just the fact of the matter it's the government spending is absolutely crazy but it's Fantastic Four the chips industry via the chips Act 80 billion inflation reduction act which has like 380 billion dollars towards like solar and energy uh which will probably end up being like 1.3 trillion dollars in spending according to Goldman Sachs because of the government Loosely interpreting rules this is a booned companies I invest in big come on man how can I be Batman how could I possibly be mad and Joe Biden for giving massive stimulus checks for some of my favorite companies that I think are going to do very well over the next five ten years even Intel is just milk and Manufacturing credits I mean look at this you've got uh I was talking to an end phase installer this morning they're like did you know that not only is enface reaping in these credits like crazy but Q cell which manufactures solar panels in Germany is coming to Atlanta Georgia to grow the crystalline to make solar panels in America American-made German solar panels yes thanks to these tax acts right that's great but it doesn't affect normal people it's a benefit to the people who invest in those sort of stocks or hopefully will be in the long term maybe not in the near term yeah but I mean you know you got to compare that you got to compare that to some of this other stuff that's going on uh you know here's just another piece on that supporting this was in the uh Vegas Sun I was in Vegas Vegas Sun supporting entrepreneurs can make Nevada a center for solar manufacturing and basically it's like a democratic argument for like more more stimulus for solar and green and also fine that's that's Biden's claim to fame but Trump's like all lower tax for everyone it has a history of that but not only that here's here's the focus of Democrats right now straight out of the LA Times and yes this is a newspaper is a physical piece of paper that has old news on it California Democrats misfired this is in the Capital Journal in the LA Times misfired by passing tax on guns and ammo legislature doubled the tax on firearms and ammunition sales right because law-abiding citizens should have to pay twice the taxes on buying ammo because we want law-abiding citizens to practice with their firearms less we need a less well-trained populace right because gun owners should be disincentivized from training stupid here's one Sacramento all California Public Schools will now be required to provide gender-neutral bathrooms under a law signed by gavinusum well so what they'll probably do is just carve out some existing bathrooms and go all right all all those are gender neutral and the boys are over there and the girls are over there whatever and you go pick your bathroom or whatever so there's gonna be some re-labeling but uh otherwise you know who's going to build all these new bathrooms why are these the priorities okay I get it some people are gonna feel a little bit more comfortable in the bathroom now all right okay you know but then this is Joe Biden's plan okay I I don't get all my news from the newspaper this is just convenient right now okay L.A times come on super left but that's okay Biden plans counter punch ahead of GOP debate you want to know what Biden's counter punches section over here that says the president has largely avoided holding campaign-style events basically he just goes to like private and Rich donor houses and holds little fundraiser events and then gets money from wealthy people and listens to their priorities and whatever and he can kind of sit down and relax or whatever that is not a way to come across as being a leader I am trying not to piss my father-in-law off by making him feel like I'm a mega Trumper I'm trying to be clear that maybe if you really love Biden please send him a letter and tell him to start holding some events again and none of this circles on the ground covid social distancing crap like we need people we need Americans they should be fighting for Americans but no they're going to Rich donors houses that's not what America wants to see from Biden they don't want to see him or think about him falling off a bike or tripping over sandbags or meeting Rich donors they want him talking to Americans lower taxes on the middle class help the people struggling but no what are we going to do we're going to focus on Hispanics and Latinos and I want to be clear here I have nothing against anyone who is Latino I I don't I don't care where you're from I'm from Germany people call me crap all the time okay I'm an immigrant it's fine but what's this Gavin Newsom along with Joe Biden we're going to focus their media blitzes on Latino voters a key group that helped elect Biden in 2020 and that he'll need again to win a second term in 2024 planning a 25 million dollar ad campaign the 30-second ad will be called LA differenceia and it's about lowering costs to investing in Latino communities I mean I guess if if you're just targeting this to Latino areas but you know what Americans want to hear and that includes Latino Americans okay that straight up Americans again I don't care where the hell you're from I even think all these hyphenate what am I German American and did I just consider myself American like forget all this hyphenated bull crap we're all freaking people but my point is why why Target 18 of America because what they vote on a two to one ratio for Democrats over Republicans fine but what does that do to everyone else it once again makes you feel left behind it makes you feel alienated and that's another area where I personally believe the Republicans have an advantage where they're like look we're not here to play this race game we want all Americans to succeed people who are here legally and lawfully and then this is where people are like oh you know immigration look the immigration system is a disaster I'm a big fan of more legal immigration simplify the legal immigration process I would love to hire more people from anywhere around the world because there I have great connections with people around the world and they're great great people I would love to have employed here but I can't because they don't have a special enough skill to get over him like this is bull crap and people like oh but then they're gonna come over here and they're going to take our jobs dude if you can't out compete somebody who hasn't already been here and you gotta sharpen your own knife and your own skills okay like like okay work on your own skills if you're real if you're really that worried that you're gonna lose your job to an immigrant who's coming over here with their own special set of skills then you gotta work a little harder yourself okay I'm just gonna be like that's just my opinion but my point is I personally don't believe that by sharing my opinion on problems of Joe Biden I'm all of a sudden a Maga Trumper and I also don't believe that Trump does everything perfectly he certainly does not nobody believes that there is no perfect but it's almost like it's like a cult thing you know it's like you say one bad thing about either side you say one bad thing about Trump everybody hates you you say one bad thing about Biden everybody hates you and it's stupid That's why nothing gets done it's it's this it's like this this brainwashingness of like well I'm only going to watch liberal tick tocks or I'm only going to watch gun Toten right lane and picked up just listen to perspectives from all sides and realize we're all just freaking Americans trying to do what's right for the country and the reality is probably all not that far apart and now it's time for an interjection here's Max with me at Sushi well here he is looking at a Lego Magazine here he is actually with me at Sushi and here he is in the LEGO store with me he was not wanting to take a picture here and here he is building Legos with me because uh we got to spend the weekend together and this little champ my little Batman he's amazing so shout out to Max now speaking of immigrants The Wall Street Journal actually suggests we should be thanking immigrants and the rise in Immigration as potentially increasing the chances of a soft Landing the reason for that is because of the expedited work permits that individuals are able to get thanks to you know more recent Biden policies what do we actually potentially have well less inflation less inflation because if you have more workers coming who are willing to fill jobs especially in retail and hospitality and things that typically skew more towards lower skilled immigrant style work well then you end up filling jobs where jobs need to be filled and then you get less wage inflation take a look at this foreign born share which by the way I'm foreign born but anyway foreign born share of the U.S labor force there it is look at that since 2006 through now we have absolutely exploded well I mean the graph is a little skewed it looks like an explosion it's really an increase of about three and a half percentage points on this chart you know right from about 15 Point two-ish three-ish percent to uh actually only about 18.0 percent so a little less than three percent it makes it look like a big deal the chart though because it is a relative increase uh okay cool here's another example of that foreign-born labor force participation rate as you can see over here on the right we've uh blown through what we like to call the uh resistance level as you can see we got rejected by this resistance level uh you know back in the 2000s before the 2014 era 2017 2018 2019 going into covet over there and then we're over here on the right exceeding now this percentage of uh foreign born uh labor force participation rate but again now a lot of enthusiasm into this idea that oh look we are actually thanks to foreign-born workers potentially seeing less inflation not only that but you're seeing probably somewhere around 65 000 workers who are foreign born added to the jobs report every single month helping keep wage growth stable keep in mind wage growth is positive so it's not down but it's more stable and we're not seeing that wage price spiral which could potentially lead to more tightening which could actually lead to more pain and More joblessness in total so to some extent this is good we're helping fill that void of Labor and there's still plenty of job openings which is good although I will say some people are suggesting that the number of job openings is actually a farce that businesses might say they have job openings but their actual willingness to hire right now is substantially lower and this is leading the government health care and education to get a larger share of new workers because those are sectors that are still hiring whereas everything else feels somewhat like yeah maybe we're kind of late cycle here getting ready for a little recession doodle quick update on househack we have still beaten the record for how much money house hack has raised compared to our last fund raise we cannot wait to complete this fundraising round we're taking care of so many of you who have questions who have been emailing us at IR househack.com remember you can still invest and or this will probably be going away soon but you could still invest for no fee using an ACH bank transfer credit card this is or even wire transfer at this point which is fantastic because well it makes it really easy for you to invest so make sure you read the the offering circular at househack.com this is a big deal for me I'm really excited about raising money for house hack I really think we've got some amazing opportunities make sure to learn everything about what we're doing with my real estate startup at househack.com by the way the most common reasons that we're getting for people to invest and these are just sort of commentary that we're getting back from surveying number one most common reason is people can't afford to buy real estate themselves right now so they're like you know what Kevin we're gonna trust that you can go invest uh and grow this real estate company and at least we'll have some kind of exposure to real estate which is similar to but brings up the second most common reason that we're getting which is diversification people are tired of kind of the crazy fluctuations of the stock market they're like you know what let me put my money into something I feel comfortable with that's going to give me some diversification away from just stocks bonds gold whatever now people are also in investing in their retirement accounts which they're really excited about that because some people are investing in their Roth or their 401s whatever which is kind of cool because then you could potentially grow uh your your investment tax free knock on wood we've got lots of gains for you but obviously we can't make any guarantees obviously there are always risks with startups but I personally believe nobody's going to try harder than me to make sure we do our absolute best with housewife so very very excited about that and I hope to invite you to join us by going to househack.com and learning more oh man here's the Federal Reserve again this time Neil kashcari our favorite Dove turned Hawk who says he was one of the 12 policy makers who forecast one more interest rate hike this year come on Neil what do you think this is an expiring coupon or something oh which by the way is coming up on Friday we're raising the price on the pre-sale for the 79 micro crash courses they're actually going to have a lot more a lot of value they're probably not going to be my micro but they're gonna have a lot of concise really good value at many different topics make sure you go to meet kevin.com to see what all those topics are but anyway Neil kashikari is suggesting that probably going to have to have one more rate hike if the economy stays strong he is pitting a soft landing at a 60 chance so even though he's for one more hike he's actually giving a soft Landing a greater chance than not which is somewhat surprising but okay all right fine that's Neil kashikari for him that did unfortunately lead stocks to some of a little bit after Neil was talking but you know what not so much of a surprise what you're really going to give us one more raid hike okay come on come on give it to me Futures markets not really expecting this is actually going to come to fruition and we're saying that tend to yield curve really flip-flop right now in other words oh man yeah this is this is whoo boy it is exploding right now in case you don't know the the more the yield curve goes up in other words uninverts the more pain you generally experience and uh let's just say last week was like the worst week in the stock market we've seen in uh quite a while uh yeah so that's leading a lot of people to say oh dear maybe we just want to wait on the sidelines of course it's usually those fearful people who don't ever end up getting back in and because they never get back in because they just keep waiting for a new opportunity to just sit out and miss a lot of money they're the ones who generally sell like close to bottoms and and yeah it's just a mess but it's really incredible because all this stuff is apparently lowering inflation expectations which is also good they're finally dropping off a cliff again which is what the FED wanted remember going into the FED meeting what did me Kevin say yeah I don't think it's that hard I'm like I literally said folks the break-evens are going in the wrong directions so they're going to have to talk dirty to us and it's not the dirty talk that we like it's just it is what it is so if you're like oh why are the stocks I'm investing in down it's not you it's systemic it's everything it's anyway look at some of these charts that we've got here I want to show you these uh oh oh this is actually the uh the reminder that we have uh prices going up on the 29th and it's actually the new verse Pro crash course section look at that uh how to buy your first house how to boost your productivity how to negotiate real estate in the winter of 2023 that's gonna include like January of next year these are pretty Popular by the way look at this folks that is the definition of the steepening of the yield curve it is now almost as high as we were during the banking crisis look at that it's going straight up over here and why is that happening because of expectations of inflation going down this is the five year five year Break Even which is the forward basically what do we think inflation is going to be be in five years from now and then the five years forward I know it's a little confusing still elevated though right still at the elevated level here relative to where we had been in the prior uh part of the year but you know which one's moving a lot it's this one the straight up five-year break even look at that we are at pretty much a low and I'd say we're kind of at the resistance level that we saw there in May but this is nice a nice plummet off of some of that heat that we had there on break even inflation expectations that's what the Fed want it so they're actually accomplishing with words exactly what they wanted one of the reasons inflation break evens were skyrocketing was because of oil prices and wow now something else that is interesting is the billionaire chairman of the evergrand group in China is now under police surveillance gotta turn over his like passports and IDs can't leave can't have meetings or communicate with people without prior approval by China's criminal procedural law it is it's intense okay you don't want to be under this kind of surveillance and usually this only happens if somebody's about to get charged and basically the criminal justice system so in other words was there fraud at evergrand was there a deceit are they looking for a Fall Guy which isn't horribly uncommon in China that uh you know China basically needs to have an excuse for why you know their stimulus led to aggressive expansion and the taking on of way too much Leverage to build more properties that were low quality properties but because they were built via speed and people were able to buy those properties before they're finished being built Chinese developers are morally incentive well like there's a moral hazard of an incentive to basically build low quality crap sell it and keep going while borrowing but rather than China wanting the truth to be known it's much easier to go they were a fraud he's our guy and then you move on now earlier we talked about Joe Biden I guess now we may as well talk about a Danny t Donnie t apparently now being found liable for fraud exaggerating his net worth by billions of dollars this all goes back to the uh New York uh attorney general uh Leticia James who filed a lawsuit against Donald Trump basically a year ago making progress in her case against Donald Trump the judge basically said yeah it does look like Donald Trump inflated his net worth and now we're going to go ahead and keep bench trialing which is when a judge evaluates the merits of a case rather than having a jury trial but anyway the bench trial being conducted by the judge is uh is proceeding onto other claims now uh including falsifying business records and false financial statements but basically this valuation issue comes from this idea that long and short Donald Trump buys a building then puts the Donald Trump brand on it and the argument is that because of the Donald Trump brand the property can maybe generate potentially a lot more cash flow and thanks to multiplier analysis which we use in real estate it suggests hey well this Trump property is now worth more maybe in some cases substantially more maybe a 300 million dollar building is now deemed to be worth 500 million dollars and then that helps you prop up your net worth so you can go do other deals right now whether or not that's true is obviously being evaluated in courts right now and what problems there might be with that is all that's being evaluated Donald Trump of course calls the judge a trump hater and suggests it's very unfair I call for help from the highest courts in New York State or the federal system to intercede there are also some sanctions being uh basically fines coming against uh Donald Trump as well as Trump Jr Eric Trump the Trump organization his CFO and uh his lawyers ordering them to pay 7 500 each for repeat advancing false legal theories there is another allegation that Donald Trump exaggerated the size of his Penthouse in New York multiplying its square footage by about three and the judge went as far as saying a discrepancy of this order of magnitude especially by a real estate developer can only be considered fraud just so you could see a couple juicy parts of it look at this then the defendants basically Donald Trump essentially argue that the value of their real estate is inherently subjective that because internal brand valuations are in the eye of the beholder here Donald Trump they cannot be overvalued defendants argue that no bank or underwriter would have reasonably been materially misled by the alleged or alleged misstatements or omissions in the financial documents or other information made available to their counterparties because no sophisticated company or counterparty would have considered those financial statements or other information alone as material to extend credit under so basically it's it's making this argument that like hey like come on you can't only rely on my opinion of what the values of my properties are because of course beauty is an eye of the beholder and uh I happen to think my trump properties are quite beautiful right on top of that the judge just didn't go for this idea that there is a need to prove there was some sort of uh loss incurred by the banks by lending to Donald Trump of course Leticia James suggests well it's not fair because maybe like the postal office uh that was sold to Donald Trump would have been sold to somebody else instead of Donald Trump because Donald Trump over inflated his clout he potentially got deals he shouldn't have gotten therefore experienced unrest unjust enrichment just a little bit more color on what here is going on at the same time U.S consumer confidence Dives to four months low as home sales also tumble this uh just out from Reuters weighed down by persistent worries about higher prices and fears of recession no kidding I mean this is why I think it's politically important to uh really address some of the pain that's going on out there consumer confidence index declines uh were across all age groups and most pronounced with annual incomes of fifty thousand dollars or more thought this was quite interesting 50k or more inflation is slowing but prices are still very very high this idea about current prices is very frequently missed uh as just because inflation returns to zero doesn't mean that current prices aren't high but we already know this of course uh student loan repayments begin here in October and here's that consumer confidence past versus present I always kind of like comparing these here expectations you could see ER you know pretty much in those uh 2010 11 12-ish doldrums whereas Uh current conditions are still somewhat elevated regarding Tesla there's some kind of fear that European Regulators might come after Tesla for receiving certain Chinese subsidies the same would be true for byd and other Chinese manufacturers Teslas kind of in the EU crosshairs but then again Tesla's kind of been in the crosshairs of liberal governments for quite a while since pretty much when Elon Musk acquired Twitter it's where they started the process of that it's also worth kind of noting which I don't know if it's like depressing or exciting but Tesla at 244 has basically been flat for two years because in September of 2021 we were also trading for right around 250 dollars does this mean markets are totally ignoring all the progress that has been made over the last two years in full self-driving and with Optimus the potential for robo taxi the Cyber truck or was all that already priced in two years ago '
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