저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 비전기차 주식 시장 강세 장기화를 전제로 장기 보유 철학을 강조하며, 대상 자산(삼성전자·비트코인 등)에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없음. [출연자 배경] 개인 투자자 Vijay Kedia는 Atul Auto 이사직을 겸하고 있어 해당 종목 언급에 이해충돌이 있음을 스스로 밝힘. [Atul Auto 투자] 전기차(EV) 테마로 Atul Auto 지분을 매수했으며, 18~20년간 알고 지낸 경영진을 신뢰한다고 설명. 코로나 이후 어려움이 있었으나 3륜차 부문이 안정화되고 있고 전기차가 미래라고 봄. 시가총액 1200~1300억 루피 규모로 전기차 순수 노출이 가능하다고 언급. [투자 원칙] 전기차 등 유망 산업에 머물고 사양 산업은 피하라는 것, 장기 보유와 인내가 핵심이라고 강조. 과거 한 차례 매매 후 재진입한 경험 언급. [최근 매매] 약 4~5개월 전 Atul Auto와 Patel Engineering을 매수했고, 2월경 인디고(IndiGo) 항공 매수. 기존 포지션은 대부분 유지하며 목표가·기간 없이 보유한다고 함. [인프라·방산·철도] 철도와 방산 섹터가 2~3배 상승했으나 HAL(Hindustan Aeronautics)을 800루피대에 일찍 매도해 기회를 놓쳤다고 인정. 유동성 높은 종목은 시장 급락 시 먼저 매도해야 해서 장기 보유가 어렵다고 설명. 철도·방산 현재 재검토 중이 아님. [시장 전망] 2003년 이후 구조적 변화로 강세장이 길어졌다고 보며, 이번 강세장(2022년 시작 기준)이 8~12년 지속될 것으로 전망. 중간중간 많은 조정은 있을 것이라고 봄. [기타 종목] Affordable Robotics와 Innovators Facade(외장재) 보유. 두 종목 모두 저점 대비 수 배 상승해 리스크가 커졌다고 인정하며 일부 매도 가능성 언급. 추천하지 않는다고 명시. Shalby Hospitals 약 1% 보유 및 병원 산업 성장 기대, 이 회사 이사직 겸임 공개. Repro는 6~7년 보유 중 최근 400→800루피로 상승. [결론 메시지] 투자자 보호, 지식·인내·기업 실적 공부가 중요하며 소문에 휘둘리지 말 것을 당부.
다듬은 글
16 15-16 Yes, yes, yes. Then you came back? Well, recently, last year, in the 22nd. I took a convertible warrant. Your share is now well over 20%. Yes, yes, yes. So, tell me, what's going on in the company? What is the bet? What do you see there? Is this a story about electric cars that is gaining momentum?
No, I will say that I am also a director in Atul Auto Limited. So I have to be very careful talking about Atul Auto and stuff like that. As an investor, I will say that I invested only because of the topic of electric vehicles. Now it is obvious that we need to choose one topic in the electric vehicle sector, be it Tata Motors, JBM Auto, Olectra or something similar.
Since I have been associated with Atul Auto for 18-20 years, I find the management to be very honest and ethical. We had problems before and after COVID, which were exacerbated after the pandemic. But I see that the situation is stabilizing even in the three-wheeled vehicle segment , and, of course, electricity is the future.
So, since I knew them and was comfortable with them, I simply bought a stake in Atul Auto. Because of electric cars. Did you expect the kind of movement I described? You see, I'm an optimist. This is just the beginning. But the bet is on electric cars. Electric. Only electric cars . You get a company with a capitalization of 1200-1300 crores that deals in electric vehicles.
I don't think you'll find anything like this among other promotions. But do you think it will be big business? It should be. I don't know about that for sure. Let the company spokesperson talk about it. Of course. I think if the topic of electric cars develops, they will also gain their market share.
Of course. What lesson can be learned from Atul Auto? After all, someone said that one of the greatest virtues of an investor is patience. Is this the main thing, or is opportunism also important ? You've been in and out of stocks for 30 years, whereas if you've held them for the last 10-12 years continuously...
No, I've only been in and out once. You could say, entrance, exit, and then entrance again. And this is a term of 20 years, 18 years. What is this lesson for those who watch? I mean Lesson, there is only one lesson . If you find a topic , then stay invested. As I have said on various platforms: stay in a promising industry at all costs and stay away from a declining industry at all costs.
So now, since electric vehicles are a promising new industry, I just got in. So there is only one theme: patience, that is the only theme, long-termism and patience. This is the only topic in the stock market. Knowledge, courage and patience. And one more thing: you said that you have known the leadership for a long time , you knew .
So, you knew people who ran the business. Yes. But you're also known for saying you're not a big fan of meetings with management. No, because I'm also part of the management. I have been a director at the company for the last 20, 12 years. Of course. Yes. So in that context, I said I know the people who run the company.
I know the key person, how they manage, how they behave. Of course. You know, that's why I said I know the management. Got it. I'll come back to this from the other side in a moment. But it's been 2 months since our last conversation. Almost, actually a little over 2 months. What were you doing? What did you...what did you buy?
What did you sell? Rested. Rest. I'm resting. You create new songs to get rich. Yes, I create songs. I am writing some codes. I read about what's happening in the world. But what about you...did you buy anything new, Vijay? Uh, New, Atul Auto—this is the only new stock I bought. And I don't remember, Patel Engineering was the last one.
I don't remember if we discussed it or not. This is on a public platform. I bought this 4-5 months ago. Of course. So I bought this at a cheaper price. So, there are no new agreements . No new deals. And last time we talked about Indigo. Indigo is a good buy. I bought it during the budget period. Yes, in February or thereabouts.
So it's you...You hold all these positions. Indigo, uh I hold all my positions. Almost all of mine, yes. I don't change my portfolio. I don't buy today to sell tomorrow or sell in 6 months. I don't have any sales goals. I don't have a target price. I don't have a time frame. I'll move on to Indigo because I want to understand what you think about it.
But you mentioned Patel Engineering, right? So, this whole topic of infrastructure capital expenditure has come up again , well, pretty seriously, has n't it? And two specific sectors that have performed well are railways and defense, which have shown phenomenal success. The shares increased 2-3 times .
Some this year, and some in the last year . You, as far as I know, have not invested in them. Why is that? No, I missed that. I was buying Hindustan Aeronautics at 800 rupees, you know, but I got out too early because it's a liquid stock, and I have this problem. I can't stay invested in a company that's very liquid in the market because, let's say, if I feel like the market is going to fall, let's say, 10% from here, or maybe some event happens and the market is going to fall.
So the first thing I'm going to sell is my liquid stock. money I can't sell my Atul Auto. I can't sell any other shares, etc. So this is my own problem. You know, as I always say, know yourself. Knowing yourself is more important than knowing your customer (KYC). Know yourself. But I know a little about myself.
So that's my problem. I can't hold liquid stocks. That's why I sold my Hindustan Aeronautics because I found that the stock had suddenly doubled. At that time, this "hot" bull market did not exist. So I missed it, but it doesn't matter. Whatever it is , I don't have any money in the bank. Okay, I'm fully invested.
So if I hadn't sold Hindustan Aeronautics, I would have bought something else if I had sold. You know, I invested a large amount of money in Atul Auto. So where would this money come from? Ultimately, no matter what stocks were in my portfolio, I would have to sell some of them. So, I missed this opportunity at Hindustan, in the defense and railway sectors, but I have no regrets.
You know, everything is fine. Have you reviewed these two sectors? I mean, do you think they've grown too much? I'm not looking at them right now because I'm usually trying to catch the train on time. For example, if the train is going from Churchgate, say, to Virar, I would like to board at Churchgate or at most at Bombay Central.
I will not take the train from Andheri or Borivali . So I wo n't do that. So, some kind of signal about where the train has arrived. I don't know. He started, you know, maybe he walked 12 kilometers, maybe we're on the 2nd or 3rd kilometer now. The runway is long. The strip is long, yes, that's right .
So maybe the train sometimes goes faster, sometimes slower, but as long as it's on the track, as long as it's on the rails, it's okay. Stocks will become expensive. Got it. Vijay Kedia, stay with us. I need to take a short commercial break. I'll get back to you in a moment. So, let's do this. Let's take a short break.
We'll be back to talking to Vijay Kedia after the break. Congratulations again. We chat with prominent celebrity investor Vijay Kedia and we talked about what he's doing in the market, the companies he likes, and the themes he's betting on. Before the break, we talked about railways and defense as a direction.
Just one question, Vijay, what do you think about the market itself? I mean, last time we spoke, you said you expected the bull market to last much longer and the bear market phases to become shorter and shorter. This stage, starting on March 31, was incredible. Stocks skyrocketed. This is what I have repeatedly said on various platforms: after 2003, there was a structural change in the Indian economy, which was reflected in the stock market— bull markets became longer.
For the first time in the history of the stock market, the 2003 bull market lasted 5 years, from 2003 to 2007, and after that the bull market lasted only 18 months. The same thing happened during COVID. So now I think these bull markets are longer and bear markets are shorter. And for the first time since the 2003 bull market, it lasted 5 years.
I think this bull market should last at least 10 years. If you look at the chart, you will see that the new high is significantly higher than the previous one. The same applies to this case. This bull market should last 8, 10, or maybe 12 years. From here? From the moment it started, in my opinion, in 2022.
So maybe it's not worth it. So, this should last for eight or ten years . With some stops along the way? With many stops, of course. Many failures. Yes, yes. Many crashes, many stops, ups and downs, fluctuations. This is inevitable. Many topics will come and go, but across this spectrum, the path will become longer as we evolve.
That's how I feel. You know, I want to discuss a few futuristic topics that you invest in, that's public information. You own more than 1% of Affordable Robotics. There's Innovators Facade, which I think gets less attention, and Tejas Networks, which I think gets the most attention out of the three.
Tell us about Affordable Robotics and Innovators Facade. What's the idea here? What are these companies from the SME list, their shares have increased tenfold. Affordable Robotics has grown tenfold from its low point. Of course. You should be very careful with this price. I do not suggest or recommend buying these stocks.
First of all, this applies to both, including Innovators as well. During COVID, the price of Innovators was 20 rupees. Now it's 220. The annual minimum and maximum are 50 and 220 rupees. Same with Affordable . So it's risky now as the price has gone up significantly, but I believe the story is still relevant.
Maybe I'll sell some of the shares. I'll tell you frankly, they've still increased seven to eight times from my purchase price. So I can sell some of the shares. That's a separate issue, but I think they have a long way to go. Innovators Facade deals with facades, as the name suggests. All the skyscrapers that are being built now— you go to Dubai, Europe, you will see that 99, I think, already 100% of the buildings are being built with facades.
There are no walls, no front walls, just columns and a facade. This culture is also coming to India. And it is unlikely that there will be three or four companies that are pioneers in creating facades. And the two Indian companies seem to have been sold to a Japanese one, right? So Innovators is the only public company in the facade business.
Earlier, they barely got orders worth Rs 30, 40, 50 crore. And now you see their ads on BSE. They are constantly getting orders worth 100 crores, even IKEA has given them an order worth 120 crores. This confirms their reliability, you know. That 's why I hold these shares. This is the story of Facade.
But this is an old story, my old investments, nothing new. So don't buy these stocks. Do your own research and then buy the stock if you want. The same goes for Affordable Robotics. They used to automate assembly lines in the automobile industry: Mahindra, TVS, Bajaj, even Atul Auto were their clients.
Okay, they were installing robots. We also installed one or two robots from them. Now they are engaged in warehouse automation. Yes, and they announced in meetings with analysts and conference calls that they are operating in the US and have made a deal with Toyota. Mm. Like their channel partner or supplier or something.
Mm. So there are some changes happening there too. The concept is good. The promotion is expensive, let me point out. If you calculate the current financial indicators, you will see that the stock is very expensive. Therefore, we must be careful, but the topic has not yet revealed its potential. Mm.
The theme they are part of is not yet fully realized . Mm. You own more than 1% of Shalby Hospitals shares. Mm. Yes, 1%. Yes, approximately, I have it, yes. This...this... Through hospitals, yes. New hospitals are emerging. Yatharth is the latest listing. The shares are good, interest is high. Do you think this is a topic worth...
Mm. Yes, the same theme of the hospital industry . 26,000 crores, I read somewhere... Mm. will be invested in the hospital industry this year. Mm. So, this is good company, M-m. an old company run by good management. And I am also a director in this company, let me say. So, this is again a disclosure .
And I thought this company should succeed because hospitals—after all, with the population growth, people have become very conscious about their health and so on. So all these hospitals, and there are not many chain hospitals in India, I think not more than 15 across the country. Network hospital. So they should be fine.
Okay, name one or two of your 16 investments that are publicly held at over 1% that you think are underperforming and need time. Of these 16? I do n't know. If you had asked me 3 months ago, I would have said that Repro did not meet my expectations. I bought Repro 6-7 years ago and it is still at the same price.
Mhm. It cost 400 rupees then. And in the last 3 months it has increased from 400 to 800 rupees. Mhm. So it depends on which stock takes off when. So, since you're asking now, I can't recall any regrets. In general, I rarely regret anything in life. Mhm. This is what the stock market taught me. Yes. And I even sang a song about it.
Pe. My only regret is that I don't regret anything. Yes. Yes. Yes. Investor protection above all else. Aha. 100%. Please. A little. Invest wisely, don't waste time on rumors, knowledge, patience, and business experience. So study the bottom line, invest carefully. Don't waste time on rumors , stay calm.
Choose the company carefully. Study its indicators. This is the true formula for wealth. This is the true formula for wealth. Source of long-term success, invest carefully, study the bottom line. Don't waste time on rumors, stay calm. If there was an audience, I think they would be here . This is about raising investor awareness, and I think it's a noble song, hopefully the exchanges will take notice.
Yes, of course. So, on that note. So, on that note, we sincerely thank you for your visit. Thank you. It's always nice to talk to you. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. Well, that concludes our special discussion with Vijay Kedia. Thank you for sticking with us, and we're heading back to the studio.
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