저자: RobertHunt · 외국인
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시티델 켄 그리핀의 성과(2023년 15.3% vs 헤지펀드지수 7.4%, 인덱스 VTI 약 26%)를 들어 저비용·단순투자·장기투자 원칙을 강조. 해리스 세금안(고소득 자본이득 최고세율 적용, 1억달러 이상 미실현이익 최소 25% 과세 '부자 최저세')을 설명하며 고위험 우려를 제기했으나 투자 방향 예측은 없음. 디드리프트 ETF(근력 운동 CEO 펀드)의 과거 초과수익을 소개하며 과거 수익 외삽의 위험을 경고.
다듬은 글
[ I help to make it actionable understandable and clear what a week what a show sadly I'm in Studio by myself one of our frequent guests Mr Bobby Hunt is out and about he's got his own life he can't always be here in studio but we've got a wonderful slate of news to go through with you the listener we're going to be looking at a Wall Street Journal article sent in by a friend of the show actually they know who they are um they've actually been on the show if you really want to look through past podcast guests great article sent in here on citadel's Ken Griffin how he's remade the hedge fund industry with himself on top whoa there's a lot to parse through there on what winning actually looks like an investing do you want to win an investing stay tuned to the rest of the podcast because it ain't how the article describes it and then you guys keep asking and I finally agreed we're going to be talking about Madam vice president kamla Harris's most recent tax plan I actually have been getting questions and comments about it so I want to at least dice through some of it so that you can understand what you need to worry about what you don't need to worry about and then I end with kind of a nice cherry on top for ways that were already getting hosed that you need you can change today and then at the very end another friend of the show sent in a great new exchange traded fund that I want to talk about other than explain a personal story so kind of a Robert's Corner about how I have been sucked in by these sorts of strategies before so it's the deadlift ETF you're you're GNA want to listen to the end on that one so at the top this is an article by Peter rudiger this is headlined citadel's King Griffin has remade the hedge fund industry with himself on top let's start definitionally what's a hedge fun it's a pool of money we know what pools of money are just bunch of money put it together with a lot of different investors that seeks to beat the market now of course for my hedge fund listeners you might say aha but the word hedge why do we put the word hedge in there fair enough they put the word hedge in there because some hedge funds try to be what's called Market neutral meaning irrespective of the s&p500 stock markets moves up and down they want to try to churn out returns year after year now what happens s in practice listeners the word hedge could might as well be taken away just could be all called fund and i' take away the word hedge put High fee fund because when you dig into it typically These funds have very high management fees maybe 2% a year and then performance fees meaning if they earn over a certain hurle rate 20% or so of that um profit share goes back to the fund company so you can make a great deal of money owning a hedge fund the larger it gets so inter scene one Mr Ken Griffin the article begins he's arguably at the top of the hedge fund game he has a 63 billion with a be hedge fund firm Citadel and when you walk in to his Miami offices it says the number one most profitable hedge fund manager of all time that's on the elevator doors at the Miami Miami headquarters now for the uneducated investor they might look at that and say incredible there must be a money printing press in here how do they do It For The Robert hun Financial listener we know what makes for great investing don't we we keep the cost low you keep investing simple Keeper Time Horizon long I didn't have Bob to sing it it's not the same without him homeschool your kids guys so keeping those those three things in mind is that what citadel's doing it's not but listen listen they don't seem to mind Citadel followed a one they had a one-year record Hall of 16 billion in 2022 so that's assets they gained he said we made this is Griffin we made more money than any firm has ever made in the history of capital markets now think about this listener does that matter for you does that matter for me let's say we were investors in Citadel how would we have done in 2023 well the article explains last year the firm's Flagship fund was up 15.3% that outpaced the 7.4% gain in a broad hedge fund industry index gather the children around for this one they're going to need to know this for decades to come you realize they're bragging right here don't you they're saying we outpaced the hedge fund industry which earned 7.4% in 2023 because we earned 15.3% now what is a good listener of the Rober hunt Financial market update doing right now they're thinking to themselves H what about the index what we can own for free well how did that do in that time period now that would be a wise question what do you think it did about 23% or so now I'm looking up the official number right here so that we we get it just right for you but I'm on my previous I did a little just a quick search and it was 23% so oh sorry 26% in 2023 it depends on the index so let's take the Vanguard Total stock market index vti 26% so you realize guys we could have blindly boringly our detractors would say lazily put all the money in an index fund and absolutely trounced the most profitable hedge fund manager of all time let that sink in Griffin the gentleman that owns a 55 years old is known inside Citadel as an intense demanding boss whose blue-eyed stare is a source of discomfort for employees he's obsessed with Garden complacency is he is he obsessed with ging against complacency you know I'd say pretty complacent at 15.3 compared to my 26% I didn't have to look him in the eyes well blue eyes I used to call Stonewall I didn't have to get scared by him I just got it by hitting the index so he's got all this pop quizzes he does he's super intense he's doing all this stuff he's got teams they this article goes into great detail about all these various teams of stock Pickers he has distributed all throughout the firm and it's Uber competitive and who's going to do it and uh how' they do remember that hedge fund line that the hedge fund industry will tell you or no we Zig when the market zags well 2008 2009 it says it's funds recorded losses of 55% nearly torpedoing The Firm it took until 2012 to make the losses back so much for the word hedge in the word hedge fund so I say this not to pick on him he is clearly successful I think net worth it says in this article I forget but it's like 30 billion or 40 billion it's big um and and he attended Harvard which goes to show that Texas A&M is not for everybody I'll tell anybody who'll listen it's not for everybody nobody not everybody likes swaying I get it so we went to Harvard avoided the sway but if this is the best if this is the greatest if this is the fund we're supposed to look to as the fund of funds but it can't beat our fdy Dy index what are we doing guys what are people doing and oh by the way there in this article it says how great this 15.3% return was because in the flagship fund it trumped Millennium 72 and other competitors so apparently there are the all these other high flutin competitors that can't do it they they can't do it fund this is I mean check this out fund expenses at firms like Citadel can amount to more than 7% of assets in a given year Accord to Barclays a a I get lightheaded thinking about those fees but he's doing cool things I mean listen to their the Robert hun Financial firm we don't have these outings check out this outing um he took his top performers this past February the article explains Griffin flew to Finland for the annual outing of citadel's Commodities team on top of a frozen lake he trapped the cockpit of a McLaren sports car to race against some of CIT citadel's biggest money makers Citadel team also faced off over hands of uker a Midwestern card game okay so the index fund boys aren't taking you to Finland to race McLaren across ice but they are dominating on the returns front so choose this day where you will invest as for me in my house we're keeping our cost low our investing simple in our time Horizon long but you already knew that up next this is again the the crowd is asking for it and therefore I am delivering no I'm not announcing my pick for president this election cycle I've had folks try to make this a partisan podcast I think we may actually sway the election if I were to announce it this early so stay tuned for future episodes maybe we announce my pick in the future but right now kamla Harris she announces uh a 5 trillion tax plan kind of through Messengers basically Biden announced it but I want to focus in on what I'm hearing feedback from from clients so um she proposed increasing taxes quite a bit for number of folks she has various brackets um one of the things she's proposing for those who make over a million dollars or more is changing the preferred rates on investment income from 20% or prefer dividends or capital gains to top rate so if you make over a million bucks you're going to be paying top rate the actual tax brackets will go up not a ton from like the top rate being 37 to like 39 but the Medicare tax would go up so you basically you're getting close to 45% all in if you make more than 400 Grand when you add up some of these new taxes or increased taxes now the real kicker that's getting everybody up in arms is the UN realized capital gains tax otherwise known as a wealth tax so what has been explained thus far is that people with more than a 100 million in net worth would have to pay at least 25% and this is an article forgive me from the New York Times because we read we reread it all here at the market update 25% on a combination of their income and their unrealized capital gains that's the value of appreciation stocks bonds real estate and other assets they own but haven't sold um they're somehow calling this the Billionaire's minimum tax but I guess it's only for folks with 100 million bucks uh but that's what's got people's up in arms because it's never been done before is it constitutional we don't know but also the of course 1913 when the I believe it was 1913 when the US income tax was instituted it was assured the people this would only affect a very very very small percentage of the populace less than 1% as you I know everybody pays income taxes down so part of the concern is that well if this wealth tax is introduced not only will this be in would be incredible complexity and difficulty for the taxpayer but for those of you who think this is not coming from me history would indicate that it certainly is coming for you this is just the beta test now I don't know whether something like this will make it through I don't know if she will win and be able to propose this I don't know even if she wins uh the de Democratic party has proposed and and uh previous times even when they controlled the house and the Senate they didn't Institute it so often times the money the Suits come in and tell people how it's really done sometimes all to the good in my opinion in this instance but as an investor I am suspicious of making any major moves on any news like this so I understand why it is tempting to start to worry and think uhoh I need to get my money out of publicly traded assets that are EAS where it's easy to determine their value because just to explain how this would work let's pretend like the unrealized uh tax was for everybody so right now it's for those over $100 million do net worth but let's say over time it it was everybody hey no matter what 10% of your net worth you have to give to the government every year the toughy about that is you don't have cash so this is why people are up in arms especially in venture capital or any you don't have the actual cash you have to borrow the money you have to sell the asset to pay it I mean uh this is why I think it's a really bad idea like not a good idea at all but you know what it reminded me of and in fact I saw this on Twitter do you know what else is an unrealized gains tax that we should be more up in arms about that's happening right now under our noses assets under management fees that's right so if you are just angry angry angry when you see uh Miss 's proposal how could they how how dare they value my assets and then tell me what they're worth and then it forced me to sell them down to ah for as many people I hear that from they're in traditional Financial advisory relationships and are paying a percentage of their assets every year oh by the way on unrealized gains now I must give credit where credits do this is from Mr Bill winterberg cfp on Twitter where he says AUM fees are a test on unrealized gains too and he has a picture of a confused man so I think this is just a grand reminder to say as mad as you might be at what you would describe as Marxism I would too let's control what we can here for a moment and say well hold up if I'm at am I paying a percentage already on unrealized gains yes you are yes you are no by the way how do they get paid how does the adviser who charges AUM fees get paid they got a sell stuff they got to they don't get paid in stock they get paid in cash so find yourself an hourly advisor don't you know if you're going to ring your hands about Miss Harris's proposal I I think let's go back to that first article I read on Citadel that's wild 7% goodness gracious it's just as wild to me to pay AUM fees you don't have to do it not today and then in closing friend of the show sent this in a deadlift CEO with only companies with CEOs that lift weights or do fight Sports not just cardio it outperformed the S&P 500 by get this 140% or 2.4 times over the last four years so I've got a chart here shows the deadlift ETF Vanguard 500 and how much better the deadlift ETF did lifting weights equals money is the um kind of the tagline wow who wants to who wants to go in the deadlift ETF you know I do get it hey that's good the CEOs are tough beware investor we might chuckle at this this is clearly kind of a haha thing but I have been throughout my life sucked into things like this because it is so tempting to extrapolate past returns to the Future I've heard eloquent pitches that made all the sense it wasn't deadlift it was we scrubbed and scrubbed and scrubbed these public companies for earnings and we got the real earnings not this ebit do business and we use cash flows and we used all these filters and it has outperformed the last you know 20 years how compelling is that and all you got to do is invest with us and then you'll outperform over the next 20 years it just never works that way if it was that easy anybody would do it so whenever you see something like this where it says Hey we've sliced and diced and we've got the deadlift CEO or the cold plunge CEO or the eats Carrots at night CEO or the you know you name it uhuh stick with what you know results and better returns over a long time which is keeping those cost low that investing simple and that time Horizon long we look forward to having you next week until then
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