저자: Rebel Capitalist Highlights · 외국인
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이 영상은 켄 그리핀의 'AI 버블' 발언을 출발점으로, 주식시장이 1929년과 닮아 가고 있다는 진행자 조지 가몬의 주장을 다룬다. 2008년 사례를 보면 물가와 금리 전망이 한 달 사이에 뒤집힐 수 있어 타이밍을 맞추기 어렵다고 말한다. 또한 닷컴 버블 붕괴는 완만했지만 1929년은 며칠 만에 급락해 투자자가 대응할 시간이 거의 없었다고 설명하며, 1929년 이후 회복에 24년이 걸린 점을 강조한다. 신용거래 잔고, CAPE 비율, 버핏 지표를 근거로 전체 시장이 1929년에 더 가깝다고 본다. 진행자는 러셀 2000 소형주 숏과 S&P 500 롱을 결합한 헤지 전략을 소개하면서 이것이 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시한다. 포지션마다 손절선(5% 손실 시 청산)을 정해 두고, 비농업 고용 지표와 회사채 스프레드, 장단기 금리 흐름을 주요 신호로 본다. 마지막으로 투자 전에 개인의 목표와 투자 기간을 먼저 정해야 한다고 조언한다. 영상은 개인 상황과 무관한 일반적 견해이므로 실제 투자 판단은 본인이 신중히 해야 한다.
다듬은 글
I mean, Ken Griffin, who runs Citadel, says quote, "We're almost certainly in an AI bubble." When someone that big says it out loud, I mean, what what does that tell you about the timing? Well, the timing's, you know, I said it's probably sooner than later, but the bottom line is the timing's always difficult with these things, Jeremy.
I mean, if you look at 2008 is just an example of how hard it is to get the timing right. And I was talking to Jim Bianco about this yesterday. Everyone remembers how that movie ended. Mhm. It ended with a massive deflationary bust with asset prices and actual disinflation in the real economy and the unemployment rate spiking, big huge recession, we all know what happened there.
But everyone forgets what happened at the beginning of the movie. And at the beginning of the movie, oil was going to 140 a barrel. Mhm. And at the beginning of the movie, the inflation rate as measured by the CPI went from sub 2% to 5.6% in July of 2008. And then almost overnight that CPI goes from 5.6 pretty much straight down to zero.
And everyone at the time was in July was talking about how the Fed is going to have to hike rates and it's going to be a rate hiking cycle and the Fed has been too easy and it's going to be the 1970s and then within 1 month the the whole world is basically coming to an end and the whole entire financial system is collapsing.
And so these things can happen very very very quickly. Another thing that I've been discussing recently on my videos as far as an idea is the difference between a stock market crash and a stock market reset. Because when most people look at the and there is no disputing the fact that the stock market is in a massive bubble right now.
Mhm. Um so then when you look at the timing you say, well, we can look at specific indicators like corporate credit spreads and the non-farm payrolls and things like this. But then if you want to look at the end game, kind of zoom out, most people look at the dot-com bust as kind of an analogy. But I think if you do a lot of research you see that it's more like 1929.
Mhm. And what I mean by that specifically is if you look at the increase in the stock market that we've had in the last, say, 10 years. It's very similar to the increase that you saw in the 1920s leading up to the 1929 bust. And if you look at a chart, they also look very, very similar. And the difference there between a crash and a reset in my mind is a reset happens much faster.
It's almost all at once. So as an example, when the dot-com bubble burst, it took about 2 years to go all the way to the bottom, but it happened very slowly. It was like a gradual kind of grinding down, lower and lower and lower and lower and lower. So it gave the investor enough time to kind of make a move.
Whereas if you look at the 1929, the first 4 days it was down by 25%. And within the first 70 days, it was down almost 50%. So that's something that happens so quickly, so violently, so ferociously that most investors would still be, you know, trying to buy the dip and not even realize that they're in a bear market where from peak to trough it's going to go down by 89% and oh by the way, in 1929, do you know how long it took for the market to recover?
It took 24 years. years. And if you look at all the other metrics, such as margin debt, and such as uh the the cape ratio, the Buffett indicator, all these things. I I I I do believe that although the individual stocks are much more similar to the dot com, I think the overall market is much more similar to 1929.
Interesting. So, I mean if if a reset happens that fast, there's no time to really react once it starts. Uh if that's the setup, I mean what do you own going into it? I think your first trade alert bets against what? Small companies in the in the Russell 2000 while owning the big ones in the S&P 500 as a hedge.
It's based on credit spreads, the extra interest, you know, the riskier companies paid to borrow. Um before we get into why, not advice, but is that the that the the trade you're in yourself? Yes, it is one of the trades that I'm in, and I just sent that out to my email list. And it unfortunately, Jeremy, I think the days of just setting it and forgetting it are over.
Mhm. And we we saw that that worked extremely well from call it 1980 to uh 20 [snorts] well, maybe even to today, where you could just buy the dip, you could dollar cost average, you could just buy an S&P index fund, and you could just wake up in 10 years, and all your retirement objectives are going to be solved.
Mhm. And uh unfortunately, I like I said, I think those days are over. And I think that anyone that has that plan is just lying to themselves. And so, on a move forward basis, I I don't think that people are going to have to become day traders. That's not what I'm saying at all. Right, right, right.
But I do think that people are going to have to pay more attention. And I do think that people are going to have to take a more active role in managing their portfolio, in managing their positions. Just like using the 200-day moving average uh that we were talking about before. But what I try to do with my own personal portfolio right now is any position that I have, I just try to make sure I've got a hedge.
Mhm. I've just like as an example, you talked about the short Russell position. And I I like that over the next 6 months or the next year due to the economic conditions and because of everything that we've discussed on this video. Yeah. But I don't know. The The Fed could come out and announce that they're buying stocks.
And then what happens to the Russell? Then I'm going to get my face ripped off if I'm short. So I just try to kind of offset that with a little bit of a hedge in maybe a long position in the Dow or maybe a long position in the S&P 500. So you're just trying to You're just trying to profit from the spread there.
And does it reduce your overall returns? Yeah, but it also reduces your downside. And for me, I think capital preservation in these types of markets is far more important than capital appreciation. Interesting. So I mean small companies, yeah, they've had a strong couple of sessions. I mean the Russell went up about 1.65 on I think yesterday versus 0.28% on the S&P.
I mean what would make you get out of that trade? Um So usually I try to systematize that. Mhm. And I I I don't want to get too technical for the audience. But if I go into a position in my own personal portfolio, and again this isn't investing advice or anything like that. Yeah. But I usually try to have a predetermined line in the sand.
And so that's either using the chart or it's using a moving average or it's just simply, you know, I'm never ever ever ever going to lose more than let's just say 5% on any bet and if I'm 5% down then I just immediately sell regardless of what the the conditions are and I just kind of take a step back, reevaluate, and then try to figure out what my next move is.
Yeah. Yeah. All right, listen, I promised the viewers this one. Give us kind of your most important warning light. I mean, what's it showing? What change would make you kind of act? Labor market. Easy. Labor market. Just focus on nonfarm payrolls. Yeah. And is there a number that has to kind of hit for you?
Uh I don't know if there's an exact number, but if we So, for my entire view to change as far as kind of a bearish stance on the overall US economy, if I started to see the nonfarm payrolls print at like 300, 400, 450, and start trending higher, then especially if I started to see a a bear steepener in the yield curve, meaning that interest rates were going up faster at the long end of the curve than the front end of the curve, combined with very, very good nonfarm payroll numbers, then I would definitely and then of course credit spreads coming down, I would have to reevaluate my bearish view of the US economy, for sure.
Um but if I continue to see the nonfarm payroll prints negative uh when you look at the revisions Right. and I continue to see the corporate credit spreads blow out and all these other problems that we've been discussing, then I'm definitely going to maintain that bearish stance understanding that it's not really a an if question, it's a when question and unfortunately that that's a question that's almost impossible to answer.
Yeah. Yeah. Well said. Um okay, well listen, we started this thing with a question. The world can't stop needing dollars, but that doesn't mean it has to trust Washington with its money for 30 years. So, when those two things kind of pull apart, George, what do you own? For how long? What's your time horizon?
Yeah. You know, it you got to start with that question. Number one, the the people they have to start with what their objectives are. So, a 25-year-old right now with five grand in savings, they're probably going to have much different objectives than someone who's got 10 million dollars and is 75 years old.
You know, for the 75-year-old, I mean, they're probably looking at at at tips and just that that's like the bargain of the century. Because they got 10 million bucks and they could just live on the interest super easy and then to a certain extent, you're inflation protected. Um, but for the 25-year-old that's got five grand in the bank, that's going to be the worst possible investment he could actually make.
So, it really depends on someone's personal situation, um, but I think that what's important is that they define their objectives at the beginning. Yeah. They define their objectives and then from there they can define their their time preference and then from there they can start to make some some good decisions.
But, if you don't uh if you don't really define your time horizon and if you don't define your objectives, then you're just you're just throwing darts blindly and the only way that you're going to achieve your objectives if you is if you just get lucky. Yeah. All right, George Gammon. Know your goals first, then your time frame.
Uh thanks for joining me. Of course, you can find George on his YouTube channel and at Rebel Capitalist, where he's just launched that free newsletter he talked about with a macro alert and a trade alert twice a week. Uh, I guess I'll see you in New Orleans, my friend. Appreciate your time. Yeah, thanks for having me on and I I look forward to seeing you face to face.
Amen, man. Finally. All right. Appreciate it. Thanks, George. Appreciate it. All right. Bye. All right. So, would you lend Washington your money for 30 years? Tell us in the comments. The Fed decides October 28th and we'll be on it, of course. I just mentioned over New Orleans. Has this changed how you think about your money?
Subscribe so you don't miss the next one. For Kitco News, I'm Jeremy Saffron. We'll see you next time.
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