저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
Peter Schiff은 누적 부채·적자 증가와 이자비용 확대로 달러의 구매력 하락이 가속화되어 결국 교환수단으로서 기능을 상실할 것이라고 주장. George Gammon과 Mario Nawfal은 달러의 네트워크 효과(FX스왑·파생상품 90% 달러 결제, 은행·다국적기업 의존)와 신용 기반 통화 구조상 달러가 아르헨티나식 초인플레이션으로 가기 어렵다고 반박. 아르헨티나 사례에서 현지 통화는 과거에도 실사용되었고, 달러 수요 감소 시 대출 상환으로 공급이 줄어든다는 점이 논거로 제시됨. 결론적으로 달러 붕괴 시점·방식에 대해 합의되지 않은 채 토론이 마무리됨.
다듬은 글
What if somebody's paycheck is immediately converted into gold? So that when they get paid every month, they get paid in gold. Well, now they don't have any dollars. So, how are they going to pay their bills? They pay their bills with gold, cuz that's all they have. don't, Peter. Well, I'm just talking I'm asking you to think about the future in a world where you get paid in gold.
Mario, if one of your sponsors paid you in gold, could you use that to pay your employees? Could you use that to pay your expenses? Now, you'd be using it as a store of value. yeah, you could. But if they all have gold accounts, yeah, you could. But but but then we go back to network effect, Peter. And and and there's no way that the dollar, and we all have to admit this, the dollar has the greatest network effect that we have ever seen in human history.
Now, we might not like it, but it is what it is. When we look at the the the total global monetary system, the banks, by the way, the banks massively benefit from this dollar monetary system and this network effect, right? Uh you look at the multinational corporations. in the George, as long as there's confidence in the dollar, but if the confidence is lost, the whole network blows up.
I mean, it's not going to last forever. But if an asset But what you're talking about, Peter, it it it Here Here's the problem with that statement. If the If there was a loss in confidence in the dollar, maybe. But what would make the dollar What would make these multinational corporations lose confidence?
Not the dollar, cuz let's remember, a current a modern currency really isn't a green piece of paper. It's a network. It It's It's a Well, It's a monetary system. So So, what would make people lose confidence in a monetary system? Well, up up So, up until up until now, Because every single thing that you're talking about, whether it's debt, deficits, we've seen all these things happen.
We've seen all these things play out. And the dollar network has only become stronger. I mean, last time I spoke with Mario No, I don't know that it's stronger. Peter, look up at FX swaps. We talked about this last time, Mario. If you look at the most recent BIS report on dollar derivatives or FX derivatives, you see that 90% one side of it is the dollar.
What does that tell you? That tells you that in the real world, not in the Peter Schiff world or the George Gammon just with us plebs, right? But in the real world of the monetary system, with the banking system, with these multinational corporations all over the world, they are settling transactions in dollars.
Who was that 90% using the dollar? Who was using the dollar? Maybe maybe because they they prefer to settle them in dollars versus another Because the network is the best. Because the network is the best. That's the problem, Peter. Your network with gold might be an interesting idea, and I think it's great, and and I might sign up for an account, but the bottom line is for a multinational corporation, they can't use that network.
It's totally worthless to them. They have to have FX swaps, they have to have derivatives, they have to have hedging for balance sheets. They have to have They have to have a deep and liquid bond market. They have to have all these things. But the point is George, the point is that on a relative basis, since all central banks have been debasing and creating inflation, the dollar's loss relative to other currencies has not been nearly as much as it's loss relative to gold.
And since there's so much global trade, and you know, you've got all these fiat currencies depreciating around the world, and some of them have depreciated even faster than the dollar, uh there has been a greater degree in confidence in transacting in dollars, and even though the dollar is not a good long-term store value.
And and clearly, people that are you know, thinking 5 10 years in the future, don't just hold on to dollars because they invest them because I I agree, but people don't use currency as a store of value. They use it for its utility, Peter. That's the key. They use it for its utility. Yeah, I'm going to finish making the point.
So, the dollar is still a very good medium of exchange right now and a unit of account. It It functions that way because its loss of purchasing power is relatively slow. So, on a day-to-day or a month-to-month basis, I can pretty much count on the dollar's relative stability. So, I can I can make invoices.
I can bill people. You got 90 days to pay me. We can all transact in dollars over these short periods of time. My point is the dollar's depreciation curve is going to accelerate as the debt really starts to explode, you know, that hockey stick and it compounds because now the deficits are blowing out of proportion and all this low-yielding debt is maturing and having to be rolled over.
And so, we're going to go, you know, from 3 trillion to 4 trillion to 5 trillion a year. We're going to go from net interest being a quarter of uh tax revenues to 50% of tax revenues to eventually 100% of tax revenues. Somewhere along the way, the rate of decay of the dollar is going to accelerate to the point where it's no longer viable as a medium of exchange.
Where it's going to be losing so much value so quickly that nobody's going to want to deal with it. That's what's going to happen. Peter, look, everything that you just said has already played out. No, it hasn't. Yeah, it has, Peter. Except for the dollar. Everything No, the inflation hasn't Go back to what you're saying.
It's compounding. We've crossed this line in the sand. It's 120% debt to GDP. Now, we're at 6% or 7% or whatever it is deficit to GDP. All of these things were at 40 trillion. Now, all of a sudden the interest payments are over the defense. All that's already happened. Yeah, but it But look at the Look at the dip
And and and and and the still And the people still use the dollar monetary system. Yeah, for the stability and the dollar hasn't done that exponential cra- Peter, let me tell you a story here. it's not going to happen. You know, nothing that can't go on forever will go on forever. but what you have to do and I'm not saying that just because it hasn't happened in the past it won't happen in
in the past, just not here. Just not in this modern world. I get it. But but but that's not that's not what I'm saying. What I am saying is if it's going to happen in the future you have to tell me why it hasn't happened in the past when every single thing that you just said has came true in spades.
Has come true in spades. And and and if you do and and my point there is my point there is if everything that if everything that you just said played out and it played out probably more than you predicted, you know, back in the early 2000s or something like that. And if the dollar hasn't done what you said that it's going to do, then maybe the model is wrong.
Maybe we need a new model and maybe that model might predict or come to a different conclusion on a move forward basis regarding the dollar. Now, here's what I what I want to say. I told Mario this story. I think Peter, I've told you this story as well. But I drove across Argentina uh when they had hyperinflation.
It was before Milei. And their currency was losing 20% per month in value relative to local goods and services. And the challenge and I live streamed this to my YouTube channel, so anybody can watch it. So, the challenge was trying to drive from all the way across Argentina from Santiago to Doug Casey's house in NBA and do it using nothing but gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
Now, I wasn't trying to transact in gold, silver, and Bitcoin. But what I was doing is going to each uh little town that I'd come to and I'd try to find the local jeweler. I'd try to find the the cambio. You know, Peter, I don't know if you've been to Argentina, but if you have, you know exactly what I'm talking about.
The cambio that's kind of on the corner, you know, that you exchange your your money with them. Yeah, you get a better exchange rate than the official exchange rate. So, that's the thing. do. And you get a better exchange rate if you have crisp $100 bills. But where I I went I went shopping when in Buenos Aires and I paid and I I got a much better deal cuz I went and I paid in dollar cash.
I didn't even use I just used dollars and I got much better prices. But that's my point. I know that. I I don't blame them. But what's going to happen George, what's going to happen when the dollar is losing 20% of its value a month? Then That's the next part of the story. I'm glad you asked Peter. I'm glad you asked.
You just teed that one up for me. So, what what I would do is I would try to take the gold, silver, Bitcoin and I would try to exchange it for their local currency. Not necessarily dollars, for their local currency that was losing 20% per month and nobody wanted to trade. And the only way that I could get guys, you know, at the jewelers or whatever to take some of the gold coins that I had is they give me like a 50% haircut.
But maybe they would take dollars. They would take the dollars. Yeah, but the cambios would take the dollars. Uh but the guys at the jewelers really wouldn't do that. But the reason But the punchline here Mario, the punchline is the reason they wanted their shitty depreciating currency by 20% per month more than they wanted the gold, silver, Bitcoin that was a great store of value, right?
Is because of the utility it had. So, even though you've got a currency that's losing that much that has massive amounts of utility, people will still prefer spend it the next day. They weren't going to hold it. They were going to spend it right away. But they still preferred it Peter. So, my point is because they were going to spend
I bet in fact I'm sure when you get got to Doug Casey's house, he would have taken your gold. Oh, yeah. For sure. For sure. I just thought of two seconds. George, I was just thinking of another country in Lebanon. They have the Lebanese pound or lira and the US dollar. And when they had hyperinflation, people started transacting with the dollar.
I went there for an interview and people would accept the dollar not the local currency. Now, I know that in a way that makes your point, but I'm saying if the dollar becomes the Lebanese currency or the Argentinian currency, and then there is some alternative whether it's backed by by gold or not that is more stable and that has network effect, wouldn't that alternative be better than a dollar that's in hyperinflation?
Okay, let let let's discuss it. It's very I hold on before you answer that. I was going to make one point about, you know, doing these surveys. You know, I don't know if you've ever watched on the internet, but they have guys asking people what do you want? A chocolate bar or a bar of silver? And almost everybody takes the chocolate bar.
I mean, they they have no idea what even the value of silver is. The typical person on the street that you meet has no idea what you have. market. That's the market. That's the market, right? But the market is ignorant. Well, but the market's the market, right? So, now going back to Mario's point there.
We have to really look at the hyperinflation of Argentina or Turkey and we have to compare that monetary system, right? To the monetary system of the dollar. Because they are completely completely completely different and one way that makes all the difference in the world. And that is one currency for the most part is printed into existence.
It's printed into existence. So, why does that matter, Mario? Because I've got this Well, let's just say this bottle cap right here. Let's just say this represents a silver coin or something like that. Um if I create this coin, I can't get rid of it. It doesn't disappear. So, the supply just increases and if the demand increases and the supply or just you know, that's when you see these wheelbarrows full of like currency and whatnot because the supply doesn't go away even if the demand goes away.
So, how is that different than the monetary the dollar monetary system? In the dollar monetary system, the vast majority of dollars, especially outside of the United States, are lent into existence. system you explained earlier. So, what happens is if there's less demand for dollars, then there's less loans being created, dollar loans being created, right?
Dollar credit. And there's more dollar loans being paid off. In which case, the lower the demand for the currency, the dollar in the dollar monetary system, the fewer dollars you have. So, it's kind of shifted from a currency to like a US dollar to like a global coin that's in a way decentralized, where whatever the government does it doesn't
But the But the But the key is But the key is if you have a currency where the vast majority of it was lent into existence, the supply of the currency can decrease. It can decrease. So, as demand decreases, more loans are being paid off. If more loans are being paid off than are being created, the amount of the currency, the amount of dollars in the world actually shrinks.
Now, if you have these coins, whatever you want to call them, right? And if those are created by the government, and that's what everyone uses, well, if the demand for these coins goes down, the supply of coins does not go down. The supply of coins stays the same. And that's why you can't have hyperinflation with the dot.
Now, I shouldn't say that. If you if the Fed you know, created a hundred trillion dollars or something like that and just, you know, overnight and just sent it into the global monetary system, yes, you could get hyperinflation. But the The Fed's The Fed's abusing The Fed's abusing the system now, but not enough to break the system and it
Well, because what you What you have to look at, Mario, is is is the amount of dollar debt in the in the whole entire world. So, the amount of dollar debt is hundreds of trillions of dollars. Hundreds of trillions of dollars. The Fed's balance sheet right now and bank reserves, it's like 4 trillion.
So, we're talking about this little teeny weeny little minuscule amount that on a global scale makes absolutely no difference whatsoever. So, again, this is the big difference here that the supply of dollars contracts and expands with the demand for those dollars where with an Argentinian peso because most of them weren't lent into existence cuz no bank would lend margin Argentinian pesos.
Those just pile up just like Weimar Germany. Yeah, but but but you just got to you just got to you just It's almost impossible, especially in the current conditions, to have hyperinflation with the dollar.
Comments 0