저자: RobertHunt · 외국인
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재무 자문 수수료(1%)는 과도하며 직접 운용 전환을 권장한다. 마이클 버리의 'sell' 트윗과 Vitali Katsenelson의 향후 10~20년 수익률 둔화 전망은 과거 주가 상승 이후의 경고성 발언으로 보고, 저비용 인덱스 투자와 장기 관점을 유지하라고 주장한다. 또한 단기 수익 추구는 도파민 중독적 투자 행동이므로 자기성찰이 필요하다고 강조한다.
다듬은 글
[t where I take the week's financial news regardless of the weather and that financial news can be confusing misleading and take you of course I make it actionable understandable and clear yes for this icy week here in Dallas Texas the show goes on for my other listeners and other climates carry on pay no mind to this weather update here in Dallas but if you're like me it's been an icy one we still got great news the news machine keeps cranking so for this week market watch had an article we're going to look at titled I'm paying my financial advisor 1% what do I do lo and behold I know what to do we're going to look at legendary big short investor Michael bur in his issue of an ominous warning on Twitter one word sell and he disappears Into the Night a uh article another market watch deal um about payback time US Stocks have been a no-brain or Money Maker for years but those days are over and then we end it with Mr Morgan housel one of our North Stars Mr housel has almost read John Bogle like levels in the reverence that we have for him on the show not quite but we look at an article he wrote uh January 31st 20123 titled everything you can't have and it's about dopamine and you're going to love it you might get a dopamine hit yourself just just listen to me talk about it at the top though Market watch by Alysa Wolfson I'm paying my financial advis are 1% but the only Communications I get are invoices so I want to regain sole control of my accounts without having to talk to him about it is this possible you can just hear it in this person's voice uh just the absolute fear and the Captivity they have in this managed account malaise well there in Good Company a whole lot of folks feel like this and even some of my listeners you may feel like this you may be in a financial advisor relationship where you are being charged a fee but not really getting a lot for it and I'd argue it's hard to it's hard to justify a 1% fee even if they walk your dog every night it's tough to back into it and make sense of it but this uh this person comments they said eight years ago I hir a financial advisor because there rounds of layoffs at work were coming and I want my savings were enough for me to to retire so they thought in order to get a financial plan they had to do this 1% deal you don't you can pay by the hour to yours truer or many others now uh this has been a significant amount per year but this original advisor I high retired and there's a new person now and they don't reach out to me all I get are invoices for fees which is kind of amazing because a lot of these situations there's no invoice for fee so good on them for actually showing them what they're being charged and this person laments in retirement the fee for the financial adviser has been my biggest yearly expense more than my taxes more than my property taxes in a very expensive area and I don't think it's worth paying that large free you're right it's not what do you do so this is a question answer segment and I'm just going to give the answer so the answer in this article you could read I'll link it here but it talks about what you can do to move money around and then it quotes one of my a good person at the end but when you're in this situation I think it's critical but not obligatory to partner with someone to help you because it can be a real bear moving money out of a managed account I've done it myself and I've helped many many others do it as well the roadblocks that are put up are numerous so but I want you to know it's easy so this person's fear that Odo have to let them know Well ultimately I believe it's a it's a common courtesy to let someone know so you might be tempted just to open up that brokerage account at a Vanguard Fidelity Charles Schwab TD Mar tra wherever and just issue the order to move the Securities in kind maybe to a operations person and not tell your adviser I don't recommend that I believe we can be courteous um and kind even if we don't like the service provided at the price but and and I'd say be transparent but it's going to be they're going to try to by hook or crook keep you in there you're a great client for them 1% not doing anything for you that's called an annuity for the adviser just kind of a royalty check they get for having you in the system well that's not good for you but what I would do first is lay the groundwork so what I Council folks to do is let's say you're in one of these managed accounts somewhere you may already be at a Charles Schwab well that's kind of nice and there's not a whole lot to do you literally just need to call your the managed account person your adviser and say I'd like to be self-directed from now on thank you for your service I'm going to go in a self-directed manner oh don't do that you don't we we help you pick the right stock at the right time you noticed in in in 2020 we got you in the right spot here you know they you just have to turn your turn off your ears for a second turn them back on and say I understand that I'd like to be self-directed thank you and you might have take but guess what you can just flip the switch and no more fees now you may own a whole host of Securities you don't know what to do with but at least that manage fee is gone now if you're at a place that doesn't allow for that maybe a bank type setup like a maybe a JP Morgan or UBS or Goldman Sachs or one of these places where it's a little more entrenched you're going to need to move the money to somewhere else in order to have this Arrangement uh just because it's going to be cleaner some of them have lower cost Alternatives but it's kind of messy open up an account at Vanguard prior to talking to the adviser get it ready say hey I've got call Vanguard I'd like to open a brokerage account you'll move the secur in kind and have it ready so that when you do call your current advisor you can simply say hey I'd like to do it now here's where I think you still need advice the longer I do this the longer I provide Financial advice to clients been doing it six years now the more convinced I am that people need advice I don't care how smart you are I don't care if you went to Texas A&M I don't you know the finest University in the country I don't care there's a behavioral aspect even if you know all the eyes to Dot and tees to cross from a planning standpoint I don't think humans are very good at self-managing in isolation now sometimes you got a spouse at work you know there there there opportunities where you can partner with folks where works so just find someone doesn't have to be an hourly financial adviser but I would recommend it it doesn't have to be every year either but a second set of eyes is well worth the money you'll spend for it so be willing to get that account set up move from that managed deal cut your fees and then it's going to be a little bit of a journey um to clean up what they left typically it's complex with these existing uh got call them Legacy financial advisors they usually have people in way too many funds um but you can do it a lot of what I counsel people to do is you can do it they feel this uh in many ways this captive posture to these Legacy financial advisors and there's not there's nothing there in many instances it is The Wizard of O you look behind the curtain and there's a little man pulling levers but on from the outside it looks like you see smoke and green lights and big face and Loud Noises well don't worry about it um partner with someone like me and it won't be a problem okay I'm seeing a lot of these lately this is a article in Fortune legendary big short investor Michael bur issues an ominous warning after the latest stock market rally he says one text sell and then he canceled his Twitter account so Michael bur by way of review he was the short seller who famously called the subprime bubble and made a whole lot of money shorting various tranches of these subprime Securities and he was in a movie so I think I think maybe was The Big Short movie they highlighted him I forget who forget who played him you someone will know but so he's famous and he's wealthy and this is February 1st Wednesday he comes out with one word sell bur also takes a shot at us here we goes in 2021 before the crypto winter and bare Market 202 2022 B said the rise of passive investing that's what I do and risky speculation would lead to the mother of all crashes in cryptos and stocks he followed through on his own advice to sell last year slashing all of sign asset management groups Holdings except for a single private prison stock the Geo Group in the second quarter so he's calling us out the gauntlet has been late he's saying oh wow passive investing is part of the problem and then towards the end of the article Jeremy Grantham the legendary British investor who runs asset manant from GMO wrote in his out letter that stocks could drop another 50% this year and what he calls the Super Bubble has just begun to pop so here we are two very wealthy folks both saying the end is nigh get those canned goods ready get the ammunition stocked it's all going to end now without the right mindset here we can read stuff like this and fall for it so Mr bur like a lot of short sellers he's a short behind every bush to a hammer everything's a nailed to a short seller everything's a short so he's out all sorts of short and some of them worked but you and I do not need to get on this train when you look at the chart look at the long chart from 18 late 1800s to present you look at the stock market chart you wouldn't want to try to pick the short that'd be a tough game wouldn't want to have to do it there may be a whole host of reasons why Mr bur thinks he should sell but I don't you have to figure out what game are you playing I play the game where I control what I can what are my costs okay I'm going to keep those low what's my investing asset allocation I'm going to keep that simple very simple what's my time rizon well it's long Mr bur may not have a long time rizon that may mean we're not playing the same game if I'm playing a 50-year game and he's playing a five- Monon game it's going to be a very different look to the outsider um and for good reason so push pass Mr bur ignore this this ominous cell signal and then deactivation of the Twitter account like a just a Mist like a vapor he goes away in a dramatic fashion don't worry about it we've got our northst Stars we've got Bogle and Buffett Munger better North Stars and and bur you got to find something to hold on to and believe in not don't don't be a short seller you'll drive yourself mad another article in the same vein uh market watch contributor opinion it's payback time US Stocks have been a no-brainer Money Maker for years but those days are over says Vitali catson Nelson's contrarian Edge uh uh published Fe February 1st it reads if you've owned you a stu of the past decade you've been richly rewarded it's payback time over the next decade or two investors will experience Bull and Bear markets but at the end of The Journey they will not be far from where they started okay let's Ricky Ricky pause the record there what in the world who in the world has the pressions in the Old Testament they they'd Stone you for stuff like this youall probably know the standard to be a a a true prophet in the Old Testament if you missed on one how's it man they you're going to get stoned in the financial world we let you say as much as you want no I don't recommend stoning of course but we don't we don't add a lot of gravity to these to these predictors we don't ask for their track records but this is a really ambiguous pronouncement over the next decade or two okay over the next 20 years we're going to experience Bull and Bear markets well yeah but at the end of The Journey not be far from where they started who how in the who would how could anyone know that but this man knows it and actually there's a lot I like about the article they explain what where a stock gets a return appreciation the stock plus any dividend payment correct when you deconstruct price appreciation it comes from two sources earnings growth and price to earnings growth that's true on both accounts what worries this person is the the E and the price to earnings ratio earnings so they feel that the profit margins of companies are going to contract back to levels that they held in the 1980s and 90s because they're very high right now so that's gonna in his mind depress stock prices significantly and whenever someone or don't look like this I say what what should we do now what can we do now what should we do now sir right what do we do well has he got a story to sell us he wants us to counter this and usually they have People Like Us in the crosshairs these passive investors they think think were're just duffel puds duffel puds being the little men in Voyage of the Cs leou Voyage of the Dawn TR that jump around and with one leg he says we should become an active value investor tradition traditional buy and forget to sell investing is not dead but is waiting for the next secular bull marker to return that bull is still far away G what does that even mean he's predicting that somehow low cost will lose now go back what do we know about the spe report SP Iva 95% of these lowcost index funds will beat their active Market contemporaries over 20- year period well you could buy a value index you don't have to do that increase your margin of safety so he wants you to buy a certain type of stock that protects you from high earnings multiples don't fall into the relative valuation trap okay um he's he's talking about cyclicality of earnings and gobbley goop don't time the market I agree hey that's nice I like that he says just buy individual stocks buy them when they're cheap um oh selling them when they become fairly valueable that's silly I don't that doesn't work and don't be afraid of cash I think you should be afraid of cash so he's saying that we have bad habits from this previous bull market and that we shouldn't have cash you should have as much cash as your family needs and invest the rest that's always going to be my answer so um these articles are coming out lots of them um we you've got to have a robust framework to filter these things and that's the Bogle that's the Buffett that's the P report don't worry about the folks that say Hey stocks are done they've had a nice run they're usually trying to sell you something and you shouldn't be buying and in closing one of the most important aspects of investing is the psychology of investing and there's no one better than Mr Morgan hosle you got to read his book psychology of money he is on my list of must read investor so he has something titled on his collaborative fun blog everything you can't have he he he it reads nothing is as desired as much as the thing you want but can't have isn't that the truth in fact for most people there's a hierarchy of wants that go something like this if you don't want something and don't have it you don't think about it if you want something and have it you might feel okay if you want something and don't have it you might feel motivated Texas A&M football program got to try to get that National Championship we're motivated aren't we if you want something and can't have it you drive yourself mad drive yourself mad so he goes on to talk about what what does lead to happiness what does lead to people kind of chasing uh bigger and bigger things more and more consumption but what I want to do is connect it to our investing Behavior he ultimately says and quotes various folks that it's a do dopamine hit any dopamine says hit our brain gives us when we're doing something new and that we like and it can be addictive it's this what's next how can I get to that next level that dopamine hit well an investing that can happen and it can drive us way off course so you've got to be careful scenario that I I see and that I've seen in myself is hey if I've got $5,000 and I need to turn it into $50,000 and I want to do that soon I am going to go all over the all over creation trying to find someone who will tell me a tale that can make that true I need to 10 10x my money I need 10 times on money I need it quick and and what I'm what I think I'm searching for is a cash I think I I need a boat let's say I think that's I but I need that boat what I really want is this dopamine hit I want more and more and more and what's happening is I'm letting my consumption it could be anything I'm letting my consumption back into my investing philosophy and behavior and it's driving me away from the tried and true the simple the longterm the low cost and it's pushing me into the expensive and the complex and the short term and a lot of money has disappeared lot of money's disappeared when when we're chasing dopamine and we're not rooted in these fundamentals of investing so this is a check on all of us to re-evaluate why do I why do I think I want to double my money in 18 months what's going on there what about double my money in 6 months what about 10x my money in two 2 years what's going and sometimes that may happen in a serendipitous manner you've you've been diligent and you've invested in a certain program a certain asset class and you you get lucky something happen that's great but when we Orient our investing around that it's really helpful to do some self-reflection and reading Morgan household can be one of the best ways to do it where he just says Nah you really you're not really after the boat or the car or the bigger number on their computer screen you're after dopamine oh dear well that's kind of a different problem altogether isn't it so be willing to do some self-reflection introspection often times some of the biggest mistakes made in the personal finance space are not it's not the numbers it's not the math it's not the asset allocations it's the psychology we just can't get over ourselves and it's this it's often times this kind of background music in our minds and our hearts that's driving us to make investing decisions that in hindsight are bizarre but at the time they feel awfully rational to us so as always keep those cost low keep that investing simple keep that time Horizon long that'
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