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금·현금성 자산에 대한 투자자 심리 불안을 짚고, 장기 인덱스 투자의 우위를 강조한다. 금은 장기 수익률이 주식에 크게 못 미친다(최근 10년 금 +30%, 미 증시 +150%)고 주장. 마이클 버리가 나스닥·S&P500 풋옵션 등 대규모 하락 베팅(약 16억 달러 규모 보도)을 했다고 소개하며 그의 과거 예측 오류(매도 발언 후 지수 상승)를 지적. 빌 애크먼의 30년물 국채 공매도는 장기 금리 상승에 대한 헤지로 해석하되, 개인에게는 부적합하다고 설명. 전체적으로 예측보다는 장기 분산투자 원칙 강조.
다듬은 글
welcome to the Robert hunt fincial market update it's your host Robert hunt where we and we hope to make it ex able understandable and clear what a week what a show three excellent articles at the top Wall Street Journal people are starting to look into gold I found this to be fascinating when markets get scary mom and pop buy gold look into the data and then billionaire investor Bill Amman says he's shorting 30-year treasury bills B one of our favorite prognosticators Mr Hackman we'll look at what it means to short what the 30-year is and why he thinks that's remunerative for his clients in his account and then in closing another famous hedge fund type with a bad idea Michael bur of big short Fame you may have seen that movie read the book just bet 1.6 billion on a stock market crash oo scary so let's start here at the top a lot of fear a lot of trepidation in these articles Wall Street Journal this is hardika Singh we featured a few from hardika Singh always a good read when Market gets scary mom and pop by gold swings in stocks and bonds have boosted the metals popularity with ordinary investors huh article begins Joe suzano lost thousands of dollars from his retirement account betting on biotech sh in early 2021 now this 44-year-old integration engineer from glauer Massachusetts is putting his money into an investment whose value has held up over long run gold coins I'm going to read this quote from him I want you to listen to this and see what what's going on in this man's heart and mind he says precious metals are kind of what just makes it so I can sleep at night where I hold it and nobody can hurt me now what other sleep aid does this remind you of where I can hold it and nobody can hurt me if you guess stuffed animal you guessed rightly this gentleman Mr Joe Susanna who's I always appreciate the can of these people agree to come on the Wall Street Journal I think it takes a lot of courage to get on there and talk about why you believe about investing in mistakes you've made but he's treating his Investments like a stuffed animal be careful doing that he he later describes the fury as it's impossible that I'm going to end up in a bread line somewhere waiting for someone to drop something into my hand so I can eat again he's he's being candid he's telling us what exactly is going on in his heart the article then continues about how Gold's done good in some periods and bad in some periods article says behind the recent Allure of gold many investors worry the stock market rally this here is concentrated a handful of tech stocks the banking crisis encouraged many of them to look at gold and then this quote Oh by Scott walridge who 43 he says this when you're buying metals and holding them it doesn't matter whether the price goes up or down you still feel pretty good about it he continues a downtick in the price of a precious metal means you have the opportunity to buy more and an uptick means your net worth goes up so it's a win-win now let's let's compliment Mr Scott wdge on this quote before we cross-examine his thinking I love the way he's thinking about investment he's now he's talking about gold which I don't think he should invest in for a number of reasons but I like how he thinks about it it doesn't matter whether the price goes up or down he still feel pretty good about it and why do you think that is listener what does it take for someone to absorb volatility in an asset class and still feel good about that asset I want you think about it what does it take for a bunch of volatility to hit a particular asset class it could be anything and for the investor that in the asset class is still feel good about it I've got my own Theory you may have your own as well I think it takes understanding I think it takes understanding I think you've got to know what you own and why and to Gold's credit and these investors credit they know what gold is they know what it is it's a precious metal so when volatility hits they know they still have the same number of ounces of gold so what if we could take this right thinking of gold and move it to the correct asset class for long run stocks then you'd really be cooking with gas because I think you should think about the stock market the exact same way doesn't matter if the value goes up or down you have the same Holdings Mr Sam Walton of Walmart family the gentleman who founded Walmart where I currently buy my groceries he was interviewed one time someone stuck a camera in his face and a microphone in the 1987 start market crash he said hey Mr walon you're down whatever he was 30% how do you feel about it trying to get a reaction after Mr Walton and he looked and he said well I own the same thing that was it Mr Walton knew he was going to be able to walk into all of his stores the same day he had the same number of shares of his Holdings that's the right attitude with investing that's the attitude we should have and what I worry about what I worry about for the investing citizenry is this there's a chart later in this article that talks about Americans perception of the best long-term investment and gold just cross stocks so more Americans think Gold's a better place to be than stocks and there are all sorts of reasons why they may be you may you may rightly think hey the stock market's overpriced and Gold's a good place to hang out but over the long run very very rarely are gold investors rewarded there are seasons short Seasons where gold R outperform stocks but if you have a 50-year vision for investing and everyone should even if you're 95 years old you have 50 Warren Buffett's almost 95 he's got AE vision of investing you want to get on the right Train That's the stock train the annual returns of stocks are vastly superior to Gold but what's the homework I sometimes will have people comment to me oh Robert Index Fund investing so easy there's nothing to it at all how hard could it be is that really what you do you sit around and tell people invest in index funds all day well kind of but it ain't easy it was easy investors would have good returns and they don't they do not on average have good returns they do not get the market returns so the homework you got to do is you got to have the same conviction about the stock market as these people do about gold and the only way you're going to get it is if you pay the price of reading the books listening to my podcast not a bad supplement not a bad supplement but understanding how the stock market Works understanding what a share of a company is how a company makes money what your ownership rights are what a what an exchange traded fund is what a mutual fund is all these things to to the degree you invest yourself in knowing understanding these Concepts to that degree will you be able to withstand the volatility and hopefully not end up like this Mr Susanna where you just want to give him a hug and a a stuffed animal and he says it's impossible I'm going to end up in a bread line somewhere where I can hold it and nobody can hurt me we can relate to this can't we we're not so different from Mr Susanna he's being particularly candid which we should respect him for but in the long run he's paying a very high price for those fears he has that's a very expensive stuff to animal throwing your money in gold incredible opportunity cost for the last 10 years Gold's up 30% the US stock market's up 150% you imagine being on the gold train the last decade you're up 30% and you watch the stock market get up 150% you're not going to stick with your investing philosophy no way you're going to punt stick with the stick with the index fund the market cap index fund and now we transition to two billionaires doing silly things which can happen I'm reading a particular book called Titan about the great John D Rockefeller and ite goes through his life and it talks about the period of his life after his involvement in standard oil he still owns all the shares and makes copious amounts of money but he started investing you know what kind of investor Johny Rockefeller was the shrewd calculated cunning Johny Ro Rockefeller what kind of was he when he started his family office a terrible one and not just kind of bad awful awful just bunch of zeros not doing due diligence doing deals with Baptists okay that should be a rule in of itself but he at his Baptist Church just throwing money at anyone who came up to him and he's pretty smart so we need to be careful we don't just do what the billionaires do they will they could lead you down a very bad road so we have examples here we're going to start with this Michael bur big short Fame he was the guy that really saw through the 2008 crisis and saw those mortgage bonds and shorted them meaning he bet on their price going down and profited from it well guess what he's back he's back more predictions and he by the way folks I'll just give you a sneak preview he makes these predictions all the time so this uh CNN here New York Nicole good kind Michael B The Big Short investor who became famous predicting the collapse of the housing market no wait has bet more than 1.6 billion on a Wall Street Crash this is insane Robert Hunt's commentary bur is making bearish bets against the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 100 according to the SEC bur's fund Scion Asset Management bought 866 million in put options that's the right to sell an asset at a particular price against a fund that tracks the S&P 500 and 7 139 million input options against the fund that tracks the nzac 100 now get this bur is using more than 90% of his portfolio to bet on a market downturn moments like these I think back to what the great Warren Buffett said don't risk what you have and what you need to get what you don't have and don't need and that's what Mr Michael bar is doing he he'd do well to just get a he needs a stuffed animal like that other guy the gold article just get a stuff to animal this this whatever is motivating this so um I'm sure he's done a lot of research this very but when you read something like this you've got to have some context oh in January he trip he he tweeted a cryptic message sell but by the end of March he backtracked I was wrong to say sell that was this year since he wrote that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have both notched big gains they're up near 16% and 38% this year and he told you to sell H so when really wealthy people with track records of success and a lot of intelligence tell you to do something beware beware beware they may not be telling you the truth and in this case they're not and final article another billionaire investor Bill Amman has he shorting the 30-year treasury bills y yay yay billionaire investor Bill acman said he's bet against 30-year treasuries has a hedge against the impact of long-term rates on stocks in a world with persistent 3% inflation now we're going to have to enter the classroom here and really put our hats on there's some terminology we're gon to we're going to really wait in here because we can do this at the robin Hut Financial market update The Listener can do this so what is a 30-year treasury it's a bond that's a promise from the federal government to pay the holder of that bond interest over a 30-year period at a fixed rate so for many of you who are in the interest rate world you you know this interest rates are going up and they're going up a lot and the 30-year interest rate on your mortgage and maybe close to 8% which is just eye watering but on the 30-year interest rates for bonds it's going to be a little less than that it's about 4.38% well what Bill Amman is thinking is that as interest rates rise when he when he gives you that quote hey he thinks 3% inflation remember the federal government The Reserve not the federal government the Federal Reserve has a 2% inflation Target so bill akman is thinking hey the federal is going to keep raising rates until they hit that 2% number their mandate that 2% mandate that drone pal Federal Reserve chair always talks about and because of that I think bill lman says I think the value of these bonds is going to go down because interest rates are going to go up so he's shorting remember that short thing he's doing with options which is the ability to purchase a particular date just like Mr Michael bur was doing so but in the world why is Bill acman not just keeping it simple keeping his cost low investing somewh time Horizon long what's he doing doesn't he listen I don't know class I just don't know if he's listening one day maybe but he sees this as a hedge now he owns lots of stocks lots of stocks and he and he owns lots of equity in various companies so in his mind hey I'll hedge I'll put on this bet and if those interest rates keep going up my value of My Equity Holdings will eventually go down he says now now amman's right technically and that's the most dangerous advice is when intelligent people who are right say things like this and he may be right for his portfolio for his goals for his strategy for his needs for his fund but it ain't it ain't right for you and it ain't right for me so why do we not need to hedge why aren't we doing what he's doing well let's the bill akans of the world can't keep this stuff up with any strategy with any philosophy investment I like putting it through the test can you stick with this for 50 years 50 five Z years 50 years can you do that nah he can't do that he's going to be in and out of this trade 10 different times well let's not let you and I get into this game because there are going to be a whole lot of headlines from here on out as interest rates rise or stay high that they're going to feel a little bit like this or people are going to bet on the end because there's truth here listener there's truth as interest rates rise it sucks money out of the system why if you're an investor and I'm seeing this talking with clients and you have a pool of cash and you're thinking about you know what should I do with this money but you're getting a risk-free return in your money market fund of 5.25% at Vanguard or or or you're looking at longer dated bonds these 30-year bonds you're saying I can lock in 4.3 all of a sudden that real estate deal that stock you're going to buy all of a sudden those opportunities don't look as alluring and so you're starting to see investors do that we don't need to think like that invest we're going to keep those cost low that investing simple that time Horizon long with a long time Horizon you really shouldn't play the Federal Reserve games they may lower rates in 18 months they may keep them high for 36 months I don't know but I wouldn't want to bet on it these folks are betting on it Mr Amman Mr bur making bets I think it's important to follow these bets up to see how they did occasionally they're right most of the time they're not most of the time these bets fizzle out you don't hear a whole lot about them I'm glad for this writer in the previous article with Mr bur who Nicole Goodkind from CNN went back and said now wait just a second Michael bur told us to sell everything in January and then he went back and said he made a mistake and the stock market's up 36% on the NASDAQ and 8% whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa yeah everybody loves to make the prediction everybody loves making that prediction when the time comes very few people make good ones so let's control what we can you know what the very best thing you can do right now amidst these higher interest rates amidst the concentration index funds amidst geopolitical tensions it's to keep those cost low keep that investing simple keep that time Horizon long because that listener until next time
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