저자: RobertHunt · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼의 넷플릭스 투자 실패(약 4억 달러 손실)를 사례로 개별 종목 선택의 어려움을 설명하고, 96%의 종목이 현금 수익률만 냈다는 데이터를 제시하며 인덱스 투자를 강조. 골드만삭스의 향후 10년 S&P500 연 3% 전망(실질 1%)을 소개하되 역사적으로 드문 저수익 시나리오라며 장기 보유를 권함. 사모펀드 Lime Rock의 79배 수익 사례는 장기 보유의 성과이나 재현하기 어렵다고 평가. 주택 수익률은 비용을 감안하면 낮다고 지적.
다듬은 글
[ where I now to make it actionable understandable and clear here what a week what a show I've taken the show on the road this week we're on the road we're near Montgomery Texas but wouldn't you know it the show goes on and there's plenty to learn I'm down here playing golf I thought about could I come up with some golfing analogy and merge it with your investing I certainly could but there's so much good news I don't know if we'll have time we'll see if Robert's corner allows for me to talk about hitting a fivewood every stroke is that the index fund maybe it is I don't know but we've got great articles we're going to look at Bill akman Mr Bill akman the great hedge funer himself of persing square and his Saga with his Netflix stake stock picker that he is we then look at a Goldman Sachs report estimating that we're going to have 3% returns in the US markets for the next decade how scared should we be and then we fancy ourselves with an article that discusses a 79 fold return in private Equity that's right 79 x meaning if you put in a dollar you got 79 bucks back we're going to see uh what can we learn from this is this replicable why are we investing in index funds these are legitimate questions and then in closing a friend of the show Good Friend of the show one of our favorite friends of the show sent us a great great data point regarding home performance meaning how how valuable your home has gotten year over year versus the S&P 500 we're going to examine some presuppositions about about that and just see if we can't educate ourselves on huh maybe your home's not as good a deal as you thought it was but at the top bill akman I came across this originally on Twitter with a chart that was breathtaking so Netflix as you're all well aware is a streaming company they put movies out there and they charge you for it and they're publicly traded and they've got a stock where Mr Bill acman of Persian Square he acquired about 3.1 million Netflix shares in January those were worth at the time 1.1 billion 1.1 billion billion with a b and wouldn't you know it he later and this is not so much later this is like um you know months and months later he sold that stake resulting in a $400 million loss so I saw that chart and I went back and thought okay what what's going on there what did what was he saying at the time because that chart showed Netflix the day basically around right of the time he sold it went stock went to the moon went right back the the inverse of what Mr Bill akman and his army of analyst had said occurred as to what he he said was occurring listen to this quote a says while Netflix's business is fundamentally simple to understand in light of recent events we have lost lost confidence in our ability to predict the company's future prospects with a sufficient degree of certainty it's an eloquent statement isn't it Amman said Netflix moved to modify subscription only model to be more aggressive and going after non-paying customers and doing incorporate advertising are sens sensible but he just can't predict it anymore well this is a wonderful example of One stock picking is really hard but two have you ever thought what if I just followed famous investor can copy their investing these moves are publicly noticeable so you you get a little bit of a delay but what famous hedge fund investors and even Warren Buffett and Brookshire hathway eventually they have to disclose their Holdings what if you just copied all their hard work could you just beat the index that way and we have to go back to some of our favorite data did you know that only 4% of stocks in the entire stock market represent the net gain for the entire US Stock Market 96% of stocks collectively earn the return of cash this is research from hendrik bessen binder do stocks outperform treasury bills this is one of those things I laminated and made so you all could see so this is 96% of stocks collectively earned earn the return of cash with only 4% of stocks representing the net gain for the entire stock market so anytime you see Mr Bill Amman or anyone else picking a stock just know huh they're actually digging in to the 4% they are they are playing a game they are they are hitting the driver here goes my golf analogy they're hitting the driver trying to get it in the hole knowing full well this is this I am looking for the needle in the hay stack when Mr John Bogle what did he always say buy the whole Hy stack so in this particular instance oh easy for us to say oh Mr Amman lost 400 million bucks just by clicking a button well we're not going to do that are we uh there Mr Amman has plenty of wins as well he's lost money and made money on his C and he's he's made bets that were spectacular you and I don't need to play that game you and I can buy the whole Hy stack asz Mr Bogle is quick to remind us cuz it is a brutal bral brutal game you when do you lose confidence Mr Amman how long do you follow his stock picks has he lost it is he still good you don't know Buffett every decade has had to justify himself as an investor every single decade Warren Buffett who arguably is the greatest stock picker of all time every decade he's the people have said he's lost it the 1960s oh he's lost it he closed his partnership up had to go to cash 1970s lost it 80s 90s they really thought he lost it so people stop following him because he missed the whole Tech boom turns out he's right again but when do you get on on and off the train it's very difficult so be willing to look at these great stock Pickers like ships passing the night applaud them when they do well don't mock them when they do poorly and just know you're playing a different game you're buying the whole Hy stack you're not going for the 4% you want to buy it all so you don't miss out on the on the big moves and then this is a great article by Mr Ben Carlson a wealth of Common Sense he's looking at um this these prognostications so Goldman Sachs is saying that there's a 70% chance that us treasuries are actually going to beat stocks over the next decade yeah so what are they saying they put out a research piece that says the S&P 500 could could return could just 3% annualize of the next 10 years that's just 1% after inflation so your net return every year C Goldman Sachs and a lot of smart Aggies work there so you hey legitimate institution Goldman sa is saying our prediction for the next decade is you're going to earn 1% every year that's an inflation adjusted number 1% every year 1% 1% why what who would sign up for that game I don't want to sign up for that game I will confess this sort of research impacts me so this is where the the preacher is in need of his own sermon when I see stuff like this I am affected because I am I kind of have an instinct that everything's expensive at all times I thought I I thought stocks were expensive get this I remember I was I think 2014 I thought stocks were expensive and I struggled oh I do I dollar cost average it was time for me to invest but ah stocks seem a little frothy 2014 I made myself invest I I I I had Good Counsel cuz I need we all need Good Counsel even even your favorite podcaster needs advice and I invested and Bo I'm glad I did but even then I thought it was overvalued so here we go Goldman Sachs a lot of smart folks over there they're saying it's going to be bad but it's rare so the this this Carlson article says it's rare to see such low returns over 10e stretch roughly 9% of all rolling 10e annual returns have been 3% or less so basically what it's saying is like there's like a one in 10 chance that you have really bad returns in the US Stock Market one in 10 for your decade so so that's that's a game where the probabilities are in your favor oh there's only one in 10 chance that we get kind of really cruddy returns well that's okay that's okay and they they they they outlin the decades that were a struggle no surprise Great Depression of the 1930s stagflation of the 70s and the great financial crisis that's 08 if for those of my younger listeners there are a few of you I know some of you are very young listeners this period this reference the stagflation period in the 70s there was inflation that was just going on like crazy many folks have said oh that's what we're going to enter into we don't know that we we cannot be sure but in that time period if you just were a set it and forget it Index Fund even if even though the mighty Index Fund wasn't very popular back then but even if you kept your cost low investing simple time Horizon long you lost half of your value because of inflation so nominally it might have looked like your stocks were but on an inflation adjusted basis you lost half the value of your stocks in that decade this would be a difficult podcast can you remember year can just imagine if I'm doing this podcast it's it's it's year eight of this awful inflation journey and I'm saying hey guys uh you know just just keep buying keep keep cost low investing simple I think my listener base would dwindle considerably my mother would still listen she she I know she'd hang with me through that inflation decade very few of you would hang on there I think I think her so I it is very hard when I This research comes out to say yeah sure we we'll do this what what do I do to help kind of push back against um these thoughts in my head when I think oh dear am I just a fool am I am I res setting for the 70s Goldman sack who who am I they've got an army of Aggies I'm just one Aggie how can I compete well I go back to a lot of big charts the big charts keep me keep me focused so I go back to 1801 and I know I've given this data on this podcast before but this is what keeps me on the narrow road $1 invested in 1801 and this is US stocks and the data you know we got to be I don't know how they get such a good data 1801 the annualized return is about 6.9% from 1801 oh they say 1802 to 2021 that means $1 is worth how much in 2021 from 1801 to 2021 $2.3 million gold if you invested in gold in 1801 $1 of gold is worth $4 in 2021 I want to say that again $1 invested in 1801 2021 becomes 2.3 million $1 invested in gold in 1801 becomes $4 in 2021 so whenever the inflation boogaboo people come out at you and say uhoh better get in Gold better get in Commodities better and they may be right in the 70s they were certainly right but if you keep your time rousing really long the productive capacity of Enterprises and corporations both in the United States and in the world have proven they are a superior place for the long-term investor I'll say that again let the children come in go ahead and call them inside on this one children the productive Excellence of the corporation is a superior vehicle for Capital allocation over a long-term Horizon which is what you are which is what I am and the the data speaks for your there are going to be rough decades and maybe Goldman's right maybe they're wrong last week you know I talked about Vanguard kind of missing the bow they you know they do the best they can but they weren't right if you had taken their advice you wouldn't have been glad you did so so I'm I'm sticking with it and prognostications or not from Goldman I'm I'm hanging in there and I think you should too it's it's a better philosophy that we can stick with over long term and then in a wild Wall Street Journal article by Luis Garcia uh October 23rd article this little known private Equity Firm booked a 79 fold return energy investor Lime Rock generated an outside gain from rid in the west Texas oil boom over 17 years okay see we we like that that's longterm Horizon but just to translate that $1 turned into $79 wow so the private Equity Firm sold the shares it received um when Crown Rock it's sold sale of a majority Stak in oil and gas producer Crown Rock it's one of the best uh scores in that space so Lime Rock invested 96.5 million and 79 exit whoa whoa this is a great quote it's the highest return I've ever seen certainly the natural resource space but also in private Equity a 79 times gross return cash on cash during the entire holding period private markets investor Greg Jensen said wow when you read the article one of the things you notice is there were Temptations for this investor to be short term to get off the train it was actually a great fight for the to hold for 17 years a lot of the uh private Equity industry is focused on shorter time Horizons which as you know we don't love but they stuck with it they kept they kept the investment and the Temptation can be when we read something like this is oh well I want a 79% return why don't I get into the next fun Lime Rock does or why don't I find the next I'll call it needle and Hast deack without significant expertise and a great deal of hard work and a lot lot of luck it's not a good strategy in fact you'll find yourself with a casino type men U mindset and you're always be looking for home runs everywhere you go so let's we we can applaud the 79 x return but this is a verse I know I've said it a lot he who gathers little by little will prosper but wealth gained hastily will dwindle now in this instance I I could argue this is not Hasty this is 17 years and whole lot of sweat and expertise and excellence and they deserve a a round of applause the Temptation with an investor if we're not careful greed can sneak in and our little fuddy duddy choo choo train Index Fund it's it's going to seem provintial pedantic silly Lite like why why am I doing this when there's 79 x to be had you must you must realize the game you're in and be willing to watch other succeed it's very difficult but this is what Munger and Buffett would would always remind um us and themselves among in particular who's passed away sadly no longer with us but he he would tell us don't be Covetous don't do it don't do not want what an investor out another investor has achieved with their outcome now he he may have a whole host of reasons to do it I think there a whole host of biblical reasons for that but it also is a benefit and a blessing to you to play your game figure out what game you're playing and play that game do not think that because this occurred you're somehow doing the wrong thing I didn't get a 79 expert don't don't think like that be happy for those that did but know the game you're playing be willing to stick with the game you're playing stay the course don't be Covetous be happy for your friends and then in closing we can call it Robert's corner but it's really just a great article from front of the show this is a a tweet said if you bought a house for $500,000 15 years ago and sold it for 2.5 million today you would have still underperformed the S&P 500 huh and then the their commentary said I think people get Amazed by real estate returns cuz it's the only asset they actually hold for a long time and they say the word hodal which you know slang in the Bitcoin world for just hold for a long time uh this goes back to our moniker cost slow investing simple time Horizon long and I I can't tell you how much I agree with this I I've heard with consistency over the years I've done this work but also just been in the world people say oh that my house is the best investment ever made and they're not talking the way Buffet Buffett says that kind of colloquially about memories at home and he loves his house in Omaha no this is returns like the best returns people ever achieve or to their home that that's usually like a 3 to 4% per year return your home now you get utility out of it it's great most people don't add up all the cost associated with the home the insurance the upkeep all the rest most of those returns get eaten up by operating or you operating cost you have for the asset but the reason why a home is can be a great investment it's pretty sticky pretty sticky difficult to sell kind of a pain in the neck so for some for some clients believe or else they don't invest in the stock market at all not at all why is that I do that their financial testimonies we talk I figure out how they're wired how God made them and I i' afterward sometimes I say I don't think you're a candidate for the stock market that's usually a shock and a relief to these and what do I do well you're you seem like a great candidate for Real Estate or some other asset class that you have expertise in and they usually are just relieved because it's going to put you permanence is the is the secret sauce in investing what can you stick with over 50 years that's what you should do if it ain't the stock market hey forget it stock market is just one of the vehicles I like it I think it's a good fit for most not for everybody what's a good fit for everybody is keeping those costs low that investing simple that time Horizon long cuz that' until next week
Comments 0