저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee은 정책 불확실성과 공포로 연내 강한 랠리를 예상한다. 계절성(10월 강세), 11~12월 경 Fed 완화적 전환, 펀드매니저 벤치마크 하회(80%)로 인한 추격매수 가능성을 근거로 든다. S&P500 연말 7,000(현재 대비 약 2.5% 상승) 전망, 2026년 정책 충격으로 20% 조정 가능성 언급. 비트코인은 10월 10일 청산 사태 후 바닥 근처이나 AI가 주도주이고 비트코인은 후행, 그래도 연말 10만 달러 이상 가능성 언급. 채권은 고금리 매력으로 중기 국채·우량 회사채 선호.
다듬은 글
Fundstrap managing partner and CNBC contributor Tom Lee. Tom, great to see you. Great to see you, Mike. So, you had been saying, you know, let's say a few weeks ago, that we could get some choppiness in the first part of November, but you were still kind of bullish looking beyond that. What in your view has the market been contending with in recent weeks?
What did we learn and how does it set us up for for for the outlook here? Yeah. Um, well, I think the market's been struggling with the same things that it's grappled with all year, which is, uh, a monetary policy direction that's not completely clear. As you know, uh, the odds of a December cut have really jumped around from as high as 60 down to 30, back to 80.
And the second is, of course, policy volatility because the administration does make proclamations and statements that are sometimes head fakes but confuse investors. And it's all done. It's all resulted in really suppressed enthusiasm for stocks. You know, sentiment has been bearish. And then that, you know, led to a 5 plus% pullback in the S&P 500.
A lot of the more aggressive parts of the market uh took on a lot more pain than that. Uh where does it leave us in your mind? I mean, you know, as I mentioned, 4 days, this market has barely even flinched at pretty much all the hurdles that were along the way, the moving averages. We got above last Thursday's high.
Uh we know it's kind of a upside bias the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Friday after, but beyond that, where do we go? Uh I I think we're set up for a really strong rallying year end. And I know we just came out of a pretty terrible grind. I've talked to a lot of PMs that have said it's one of their worst six week periods ever uh in their career.
So we know people have lost money they've derisked. But we know into year end we have the positive seasonals especially given how strong October the mid October was. You know it's really a five to six chance that we're going to be up 5% into your end right. Um the second is monetary policy I think is going to shift dovish.
Even if Fed chair Powell is hawkish we know it waiting in the wings is now uh a shadow Fed that's doubbish. Um the third is we know sentiment is going to have to chase this rally because 80% of fund managers are trailing their benchmark. And then I think the fundamental story is pretty intact. You know, as we're doing work into next year and I think earnings visibility is going to be really good.
So I don't think I'm questioning if earnings are peaking. It's more just stocks price in and correct enough. Now you've been I think pointing toward let's say 7,000 in the S&P by year end. Now that's only like two and a half% up from here. made some progress, but a year ago, you also thought we'd hit 7,000 in the first half of this year.
So, what happened along the way? And and I guess what might you think about in terms of impediments looking into 2026? Yes. I mean, we're almost through this year and I'd say looking back, this was a five years of history compressed into one year because we had a major bare market, the biggest tariff hikes ever, and that of course killed any hope of any 7,000 in the first half.
But miraculously stocks went into a waterfall decline and recovered every single point of that decline symmetrically. So it's really speaks to the resilience. But I guess as we're thinking about next year, I bet you it's going to be very similar in the sense that we'll get a policy shock. Maybe whether it's monetary or from the administration, it could lead to a big draw down of 20% again.
Yeah. But it's a replay of this year and maybe that's we've now had three 20% bare markets in five years. I mean that's a lot of history compressed into a 5-year period. Now we you mentioned uh obviously the confusion over the path for the Fed as contributing to this recent pullback as well as some policy flux in there.
U what role did the violent shakeout in crypto have on all that? Because a week ago that's all we were talking about was Bitcoin can't stop going down. the NASDAQ wants to follow it or people are concerned about how that's going to knock other things loose uh in other financial assets. So it's stabilized but it's not exactly sort of participating to the upside in this bounce.
Yes. Um so crypto had been a leading indicator for for actually most of the last 5 years but on October 10th crypto had what I would call Armageddon. You know a flash event but it led to a liquidation that was never seen in the 15 years history of Bitcoin. you know, about a third of the market makers went out of business that day.
Uh almost two million accounts went to zero. Yeah. And it was because of a a pricing error, what I would call a glitch, you know, it and it led to you definitely made that case that it definitely seems as if there was something in the uh the kind of market maker functioning that that that got fouled.
Now that being said, the reason you can have all those accounts autoliquidated is because there were that many accounts with that much leverage that got bit Bitcoin up to where it was above 120. Yes. Right. I mean, so it's not as if it happened in a vacuum. Yeah. So if in a way it means crypto represents really a very precise measurement of of risk appetite because there's so much more leverage and that got wiped out, right?
That last time it happened in 2022 took eight weeks before people sort of know, you know, touch their toes back in. I think that's where we are. We're near a bottom, but now I don't think crypto leads. Crypto is lagging because it's really the AI that's going to be leading. Okay. So, it's not So, basically, that is kind of sidelined the idea of what Bitcoin 150 150,000 you were thinking before.
Uh, well, I think it's still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above a 100,000 before your end and maybe even above one to a new high. So, Bitcoin makes its moves in 10 days and every year. I think some of those best days are still going to happen four year end and we're watching it right now at 895 firming up throughout the day.
Uh, Tom, stay with me. Let's bring in New Edge Welts Cameron Dawson and Obermyers Alli Flynn Phillips. Thanks to you both for joining us here today. U, Cameron, you know, it's coming [snorts] into um this period, it would be common to to hear the complaints, look, this market's too concentrated in AI.
uh it's not a broad enough rally and maybe we're complacent about the Fed. I mean, have we taken care of those things? Where does that leave us? I think that Tom's stat about the underperformance of active managers is where a lot of this sits because we can see that positioning is still underweight this market.
Deutsche Bank updated their consolidated positioning. We're in the 34th percentile. That's underweight and discretionary managers are in the 18th percentile. So there is still a large cohort of capital that has sat on the sidelines of what has been a very monster rally. So we think the best case for an endofear rally is that more people get dragged into this market and I think the best fundamental support for that is that earnings estimates continue to be revised higher.
So as long as earnings estimates are going up, GDP estimates are going up, it gives that cash on the sidelines a reason to chase into the market. And has the character of the market in your view changed over the course of this this moment? I mean, you know, that sometimes does happen. The market doesn't usually pass the baton on a full run.
So, where do we where are we now? We can look at nonprofitable tech is a really great capture of this is that it had a 65% rally through October 31st and it's down about 14% in the month of November. It's bounced back a little bit, but that really captures this notion that Beta has been the key leader of this market coming out of the April lows.
So the big question is if beta low profitability, lowquality names can continue to lead. They certainly love having a Fed that looks to be easier and more dovish. So it really is dependent on what the Fed delivers. But to Tom's earlier point as well, we think as well that you're going to get Fed cuts in 2026 once you get the new Fed chair.
So even if they come a little bit later or slower than what was initially expected, you're still getting cuts because you have a new person leading the Fed. Gotcha. And and Ally, um over the course of this period, there's been a really dramatic switch in the AI narrative in terms of the perceived winners and losers.
We're kind of reranking the ones that are best positioned. And I wonder what it means for the general segment of the market considering that for for a while there it seemed as if the the investors are going to be happy to see everybody invest to the max uh against this theme. Yeah. Well, first thing I think we should talk a little about the current environment and as Tom mentioned it's been painful but that's actually to us been really healthy and and somewhat controlled.
You've seen some nice rollover within the mag 7 or the AI sector and investors turning to sectors that people have left for dead. Um just doubling a little bit. So if you look at the past 6 months, only 18% of the S&P 500 constituents have outperformed the index. Over the past five weeks, that's actually doubled to 36.
Not a huge number, but it really does remind us that the market's more than just a handful of companies. And you've also seen actually the S&P outperforming the NASDAQ. Um to answer your question in terms of within the AI sector, we think investors are really focusing on opportunity but with execution risk emphasizing that even profitable platforms can be poor investments if they overpay for that growth.
So to us leadership is more shifting towards business models that pair AI exposure with visual monetization those strong balance sheets and that to us is in terms of why Alphabet for instance is outperforming some of its more capital intensive peers in the most recent days. Sure. Um, now the thought that it's a positive that so many stocks have been underperforming the S&P 500 because I guess uh as a as a stocks picker you have a lot of uh hunting to do in terms of things that are down a lot.
Do you think the market's going to start to reward a broader list of stocks I guess is now the question. I mean the Equalade S&P has obviously lagged badly but it's closer to its high than the overall market cap weighted indexes are. In fact, it's within 1%. Yeah. I mean the reason why we should really reward a broader market it's not just in terms of broadening but really in terms of the healthy earnings picture.
So for instance, this most recent just third quarter earning cycle, you actually saw earnings growth 13% year-over-year, which is the fourth positive uh con consecutive quarter in terms of increase, but also it was actually broadly distributed across different sectors, 10 out of the 11 gig sectors. For instance, double digit returns in things such as financials, materials.
So we are seeing the broadening in the market because we're seeing a broadening of the earning space. Tom, you mentioned that um it probably wouldn't be Bitcoin leading, but AI. Uh I I guess we got to be more specific in terms of AI or do you think that the full uh the full uh leadership of the first half of this year or the Open AI, Orbit, and everything else can participate?
Yeah. Um well, I know stocks have been sort of trading uh pole position, Nvidia and Alphabet. But to me, the bigger story arc remains that AI is a mega trend. There's a lot of resources and spending and it's a big contributor to growth and we know there's a shortage of both power and silicon. Um, so I do think it kind of it's going to ultimately move over the next 12 months kind of as one cohort.
Uh, I don't think valuation sensitivity is as important as people think. We're actually studying this now. We're going to be publishing it soon. But if you look back 10 years ago, the most expensive stocks at the end of 2015 continue to be the best stocks over the next 5 years. Right. Yeah. I mean, it's interesting because I don't even know if it's really a valuation story in terms of what's taken a step back.
It's a matter of, you know, kind of who's got the current lead who's Yeah. whose model or the clearest path or something like that. Yeah. Um Cameron, in terms of the macro, I mean, everyone has been able to say, "Okay, we had this rhetorical dovish pivot from Fed members. We can now price in a cut. You mentioned that it looks like we have a glide path toward 3% in short-term rates." Um, are those still going to be insurance cuts?
Are those still going to be like the economy doesn't really need it, but we we could use it? because you know we just had the beige book come out you know an hour or so ago and there was a lot of commentary about softness in labor markets and companies finding ways to do more with fewer people. Yeah that is the biggest question because cutting because you can is a very different story for risk assets than cutting because you should.
If the context of the cuts is because the labor market needs the support that the economy needs the support. What you would see within things like equities or credit is a lot of weakness because equity valuations would be too high and earnings estimates would be too high. But if you're cutting because you're just trying to get to neutral because you don't want to be too tight in the future, that's when equities can very much rally and enjoy it.
Now, the beige book has been painting a very sour picture about the economy for quite some time, as has all soft data been painting a much more sour picture about the economy. So we continue to go back to this notion of what is the equity market telling us about things like the US consumer equal weight discretionary versus staples is still in an uptrend.
So to us the equity market is still arguing that the aggregate consumer of course with big weights to high-income consumers is still in a fairly good position. So we'll continue to monitor that for any kind of change. Yeah. Um I mean I do think that the outright inability of staples companies to actually perform is helping that.
You're right. In a real recessionary scenario, those stocks would probably start to work uh again. Ally, um we mentioned I I guess you know what's happening in terms of the Fed, which feeds into yields. The 10-year down below 10%. I was just looking earlier, you know, the 6040 portfolio total return is actually kept pace with the S&P on a year-to- date basis.
Where are you thinking about uh those types of uh allocations? And what are you telling clients in terms of the fixed income side? It's so nice to finally be rewarded with attractive yields on the fixed income side. Uh to us, fixed income, it's one of those it's the steadfast. It's it's the balance.
It's to protect against the unexpected. And so, particularly if you're able to be high quality um in terms of focusing on whether it's treasuries or corporates and stay kind of intermediate duration, that to us is more appropriate. Um but as I said, it's really just nice to see cautious investors no longer punished.
Yeah. Yes. For a change. All right. Uh really appreciate it. Uh guys, everybody have a great Thanksgiving. Tom, Cameron, and Ally, thank you. Let's send it over.
Comments 0