저자: Corey · 외국인
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주간 차트 기준 S&P500(SPY)은 3주 연속 음봉이나 주간 상승 추세 유지로 판단. 단기적으로 430 지지선 테스트 후 480 방향 상승 가능성 제시. 나스닥 3배(TQQQ 계열 자료 아님, 'triple cues'=QQQ 계열)도 430 근처 지지 확인 필요. 다우는 역헤드앤숄더 돌파 후 370 목표. 러셀2000(IWM)은 183 지지 시 197 돌파 후 220대 목표. 지지선 이탈 시 약세 전환 조건 제시.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody Welcome to the stocks Channel my name is Corey and today we're going to look at weekly technical analysis and we'll look at all of the major indices and try to figure out where the market is likely going from here first up let's take a look at the S P 500 spy ETF so looking at spy's weekly chart we could see that we did have a very bearish week and we have now three red weeks in a row as we're quickly approaching what I expect to be the support level on the weekly chart of spy which is down here at 4 30.
now if you go back to the weekly technical analysis from the July 31st closing candle I drew out this expected path of where I thought spy could likely go in the short term and then where spy was likely going in the longer term so the short term projection after a very bearish candle is obviously bearish and I told you the short term I thought we would pull back towards 4 30 and whether or not we go a little bit lower or don't hit it at all is not the goal of this analysis the goal is identifying the weekly Trend and looking at the technical indicators and trying to figure out where we could go from here so because we are in a weekly bull Trend I think the highest probability chance is that on the weekly chart we are likely putting in a higher low before the next higher high and I do believe that higher low is going to be between spy 420 and 430.
now 420 is going to be the support trend line if we break below 430 and 430 is a retest of the breakout of the August 2022 highs which is very likely where the market is trying to retest to make a higher low before we continue higher now it's always possible to get a stop raid and if everybody is looking at that support it is possible we undercut it and in that case we could likely go to spy 420 before we hit the higher price targets so just technically speaking looking at the price action of the trend it is completely possible in a weekly bull Trend to continue this trend which is telling us we are still looking for higher prices until spy breaks down below the support trend line now there's nothing magical about a support trend line we are simply looking at the current pattern of the trend so you could technically break the support trend line and still find support and still find your way back into a bull Trend but we are not interested in guessing we are instantly going to assume the bull trend is very weak and likely heading into a bear Trend if we lose this critical support Zone that I've already given you so in the short term keep in mind that nothing moves in straight lines so even though it is likely we are going to 4 30 it is possible we bounce to a lower high and that lower high could go as high as 448 to 450 and it is possible if we bounce to that lower high then we continue lower towards 4 30 and still hit that price Target before we go any higher now keep in mind this is weekly technical analysis so we're not necessarily interested with the volatility day-to-day every candle on this chart is one entire week's worth of price action all we're trying to figure out on this chart is where we are likely going from here so in the short term we're looking for support to hold right around 4 30 and then from 4 30 we are likely continuing this bull Trend higher towards 480 and right now the way I have this Arrow drawn that Arrow would hit 480 by February 2024 but timing them Market is very difficult to do I would focus on making sure you're on the right side of the market and if you're swing trading making sure you understand the trend Direction and then letting time do all of the rest of the work for you if you're on the right side of the trend you simply hold your trades and you continue to check the charts to make sure nothing else is changing and as long as you're on the right side of the trend those swing trades will continue to make you money over time so right now I am saying that we are still in a bull trend on the weekly chart there is nothing that tells us the bull trend is over this is still well within the realm of a pullback which could lead to a correction and Corrections and pullbacks are completely normal in all bull Trends as I just said earlier nothing moves in straight lines which includes bull Trends which means we are looking for higher lows before we make higher highs so I believe we are still in the process of looking for where that higher low is going to be before we continue hiring this bull train now next let's throw on our technical indicators and I did do a tutorial on how to set up your chart to look just like this and there is also a discount you can take advantage today on Trend spider so if you're watching this video on Sunday feel free to take advantage of that discount and you can find the link below now looking with our technical indicators we can see price action is quickly approaching a rising weekly 20 period moving average which is also that support zone right around 430 and as long as price can stay above the rising weekly 20 period moving average there is no reason to believe the bull trend is over with now if we slice right through it like it's not even there then that's instant reason to get more risk off but so far we're still above it the weekly RSI is telling us we're still above 50 so we still have bullish momentum the weekly macd is still above zero even though it does look like it could be very close to crossing over never assume something is going to cross over wait for confirmation and you can see we still have positive momentum on our Bollinger band squeeze even though in the short term we are scrubbing off a little bit of momentum we are still positive now let's very quickly go ahead and assume this macd is going to cross over into the red territory when you are in a bull Trend that is possible that that does occur and we can just simply go back here in time on our chart and we can see this other period of a bull Trend in 2020 when we had bullish weekly RSI and bullish macd it was possible for that macd to cross over and get a red week of momentum while we were approaching the weekly 20 period moving average but again as long as the price action held that support and we bounced from there the macd went right back over to positive territory and continued to climb higher so do not assume just because this macd may roll over and we may see it cross over to Red territory that does not mean anything as long as we can hold above the weekly 20 period moving average so that support I told you at 4 30 is very critical because we need to hold above that level on weekly closes to maintain our bull Trends if spy breaks below 430 then we instantly need to start getting a lot more bearish because we don't want to be holding long-term swing trades if we're thinking the trend could be rolling over and we could be entering a bear Trend so just a quick summary there is nothing on this chart that tells us the weekly bull trend is over with if anything it's telling us we're approaching a very good risk Ward buying opportunity as we approach critical weekly support X by 4 30.
again that doesn't guarantee we're going to be correct we are simply looking to stack odds in our favor and right now the odds still still favor that we're going to continue higher within a bull Trend jumping over to the weekly chart of the triple cues we can see the same exact story of spy where the macd has crossed over and we're getting a red print but we have not yet broken down below the critical support at the rising weekly 20 period moving average which is that support right around 351.
keep in mind this is a rising moving average which automatically tells us we're in a bull Trend and price is still above the moving average so that is where we are looking for support on the triple cues between 351 and 355. remember these moving averages are rising so it is going to move each and every week continuing to climb higher as long as price can hold above it now the RSI is still above 50 on the weekly chart the macd is still above zero and on our histogram we saw a positive momentum as we're approaching critical support so on the triple cues you're instantly getting a lot more risk off if price cannot hold above weekly closes of 351.
on the daily chart that's about 355 so we are in a strong support Zone which means within a bull Trend we are at a great risk Ward ratio because we have very well-defined risk at critical support now jumping over to a weekly chart of the Dow Jones and it's very important to pay attention to the price action we're currently seeing because on the weekly chart we have this inverse Head and Shoulders breakout above the neckline above 340 and above 340 as long as price can hold this neckline breakout this simply looks like an inverse Head and Shoulders breakout retest as support and continuation pattern towards previous all-time highs so in the Dow Jones on the weekly chart as long as the Dow Jones can hold above about 342 and continue to close above it it is possible we are then going to 370.
if you take a balance from the neckline support as a retest all the way back up to the price Target that is still nearly an eight percent gain in the Dow Jones to finish out the year that's very similar to what I'm seeing in spy with the bounce off 430 and then starting to head higher towards 480 so we're getting a Confluence of agreeing here with the Dow Jones also telling us we could be getting ready to bounce and go to higher prices now manager risk right there at the neckline breakout because obviously everything is possible to fail and this could have been a false breakout and you're going to know that if the pricey action starts closing below 342.
now looking at our technical indicators we still have positive momentum and we have that Weekly squeeze which could still fire and release energy in the upward Direction which does match our technical analysis on the price action macd is still positive and RSI is still on bullish momentum and we're right above a demand Zone on the volume shelf as we're retesting that inverse Head and Shoulder breakout and then finally we have the Russell 2000 iwm ETF which is currently sitting right on top of the rising weekly 20 period moving average and we do have bullish momentum firing on the weekly squeeze which means this is now the best risk award ratio for the small caps at support at 183.
the catalyst is going to be the bull breakout above 197 and then I believe we will start running into the 220s however all of that is instantly off the table if we can't hold support at 183 because that means we'll be losing the bullish momentum breaking critical support in the price action and remember I always tell you price action is King Nothing Else Matters if price action is breaking down so if iwm starts breaking below 183 you instantly need to get a lot more bearish now above 197 we're getting bullish so you could also wait for a bull breakout however if you're longer term swing Trader or an investor you want to accumulate or buy as we're going lower so you get a lower cost basis and right now iwm is giving a great opportunity to do so right here at 183 RSI is right there at the 50 level which is the neutral momentum but as long as we can hold above it we can maintain bullish momentum and macd is still above zero with positive histogram so it is possible in the next seven to eight weeks iwm is going to push higher towards the 220s and the Catalyst will be that break of 197.
so jumping back over the S P 500 this is still my expectation that we have weekly bull Trends across the board and it's not until we break down below the weekly 20 period moving average and lose the weekly critical support that we can assume anything else is happening objectively remember the Bears have been the ones getting it wrong all year long and you do not want to become one of those bears that says the sky is falling and that we're going to come crashing down every time the market has a pullback pullbacks are completely normal and to be expected and they're actually healthy for all bull markets because they allow us to reset greed and build up energy to go for that next leg higher so I do not suggest you get overly during a pullback if anything this is the time to consider buying and taking on great risk award ratios and setting up your swing trades for long positions obviously everything is subject to change so if we lose critical support then we're going to start tracking a downtrend within what could be a bear trend on the weekly chart but right now it's a bull Trend and we can only trade what we can see on the chart and right now we still see bull Trends across the board if you want to come crush this Market consider joining Bank trade alerts or the stock show and service by clicking on the links below thank you
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