저자: Corey · 외국인
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주간 차트 기술적 분석으로 S&P500(SPY), 나스닥100(QQQ), 소형주(IWM), 다우 전반을 점검. SPY는 장기적으로 480 방향, 단기로는 448 이탈 시 430 부근 지지 테스트 가능성 제시. 기술 지표(RSI, MACD, 볼린저 스퀴즈)가 아직 상승 모멘텀을 유지한다고 판단. 블랙스완 없이 폭락은 어렵고, 풋옵션 헤지가 많아 하락 베팅은 불리하다고 주장. 이후 1~2개월(7~8주) 내 IWM 197 돌파 시 220대, 다우·소형주로 순환 상승 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody Welcome to the stocks Channel my name is Corey and today's video we're going to do weekly technical analysis on all of the indices and you're going to learn a lot about the bigger picture of what this Market is likely doing to finish out the year so first up let's take a look at a week it's going to be important if you want the bigger picture you need to pay attention to the analysis on all of the major indices because I'm going to go through all four indices and there is going to be very important things that we need to take away from every index because we are coming off the lows in a bear Market there's a lot of important things going on between rotation and the different weighting within the indices and if you understand all of that you're going to do much better to finish out the year in your trading all right so we're starting here on the weekly chart of spy which is the S P 500 ETF and I have here charted out what I would expect to see from the price action to finish out the year and the first thing you need to understand is that we're still in a very powerful bull Trend which means we are likely trending up to towards by 480 so while I don't necessarily think we could hit 480 before the year is over it's very possible we hit 480 by early next year and then a very bullish scenario we could hit spy 480 before the year is over so bigger picture I think spy is going to 480 but in the short term it is possible that spy is coming down towards 427 to 4 30.
now don't just hear spy 430 and assume we have to go that low that is where the bull Trend would likely find support and that would be our higher low before we continued higher towards that price Target at 480. so what that means is from the absolute highest point spy has reached this year down towards 4 30 is roughly a six and a half percent drop so you already need to be prepared for the possibility that spy is going to drop between six and seven percent before we find the next local bottom and continue higher now if we start breaking through that support and spy starts slicing down through 4 30 a lot of bears already have this scenario drawn out where this is all just a bear Market relief rally and we're going to put in a lower high from the all-time high of of 2022 and then we're going to continue back down towards the October lows and see another 20 to 25 percent crash now the first thing I'm going to warn you is the Bears will always say this and we just had a crash last year and they're an extremely rare event so you're not typically going to see two crashes back to back so the only way and yes I do mean the only way you are going to see spy crashing down that much is if there is a Black Swan event which we cannot predict and it's pointless to assume what is going to happen we will simply have to react if it happens and then immediately take on less risk and expect lower prices in the stock market so I'm going to repeat that because it's very important you understand the stock market is not going to crash without a Black Swan event and if we do get a Black Swan event we will hear about it in the news and we will react immediately so for that reason I am not going to humor the crash scenario because there is absolutely no reason to do so because we don't currently have any Black Swan events and there's no reason to be that overly bearish for absolutely no reason we're being objective and we're being reasonable and this is a old Trend that is likely going to find a higher low of support right around 4 30 or higher and then continue higher towards 480.
now to illustrate this I've drawn a very simple trend line that connects the most touches we can get from these weekly candles and you can see we close the week right on top of that trend line which means we could have just closed the week right on top of support right around 448. now if you want to get more risk off and you're just a risk-off type of person then you would simply just stay risk off while spy is below 450 to 448 and then wait to get more bullish if we break back above that level or as we're dropping towards 4 30 if you're aggressive you would start to accumulate knowing that you need to manage a risk if we break down below that level and we lose the greater degree support trend line which connects the lows of the bull market of 2023 which would require that break between 420 to 430 depending on when we get there so it's up to you how you manage your own risk and it's up to you how to trade I'm not telling you how you should trade this Market I'm going to give you very reasonable and objective technical analysis and then you go off and make your own decisions on how you want to trade it so for the time being we are getting a little more cautious while spy is below 4 48 knowing that below 448 we could be coming down towards 4 30.
so if you're not prepared to see spy 430 you instantly need to start preparing for it now until spy starts breaking back above 450 to 452 and then we'll likely start higher towards 480. so write that down in your trade plan because that means you need to be prepared whether we go higher and break 450 or if we continue lower towards 430 and if you're not prepared for either scenario you are simply trading on a bias and you're forcing your trade plan to depend on the market moving in One Direction and in order to be a great Trader you need to be prepared whether the market goes higher or lower and your trade plan needs to know exactly what you're going to do in either scenario you need to know how you're going to trade if we start higher next week and you need to know how you're going to trade if we continue lower next week with a bearish looking candle like last week that doesn't guarantee we're going lower but it definitely means you should be perking up your ears a little bit more and understanding why we just had a huge red candle which means we could continue to see more selling so you need to manage your risk however you see fit but there is a good chance wall spy is below 448 that we could be going to 4 30.
so those are going to be your critical levels to pay attention to from the price actions by 448 and 430 and we're instantly getting more bullish back above 450 to 452 so pay attention to that price action going into next week now the next thing I want you to understand is that the stock market is never going to crash when everybody is expecting it and everybody is prepared for it and the first thing I want you to pay attention to on Trend spider's unusual options is that we're already seeing premiums of over 1 million dollars down there right around spy 445 which means people are already hedging and prepared for a crash and when people are prepared for something and they already have the insurance for it it's typically not going to happen and the market makers that are selling those puts want to ensure they expire worthless so while that doesn't guarantee we won't go lower the odds are against you if you're buying puts because a lot of people are already hedged to the downside and the only thing going to cause the market to go much lower is going to be one of those Black Swan events or some really bad news that causes people to panic sell so again I'm not saying the market can't go lower I'm just telling you people are already prepared for it and they're already anticipating it which means it's more and more unlikely that it's going to happen again we're playing odds here and we're in a bull Trend and a lot of people are hedging to the downside and in a bull Trend prices usually go higher not lower so play the odds understand the trend and understand the trend as your friend and you're instantly going to do a lot better if you start stacking the odds in your favor in a bull Trend you should be taking on Long risks near support levels and you should be locking in profits as we hit price targets and hit resistance and you need to get in that flow of adding at support and reducing at resistance and then the compounding is going to do the rest in your account and you're going to start seeing the profits start rolling in and it's going to feel much better when you approach it from a proper risk management perspective that's why I give you these critical levels to manage risk from because if you're managing risk from the critical levels you should be doing very well in this market because we've been bullish the entire year because it's a bull Trend if we break the bull Trend and we lose all these support levels yes it could be a little bit painful in the short term but but then you're going to adapt and adjust to the downtrend and then you can start making money during the downtrend you need to learn the ebb and flow of the market and right now that ebb and flow is higher lows and higher highs and it's a very powerful bull Trend so we are going to assume it's a bull Trend until it's not which is going to require price action to prove us wrong all right and then quickly let's put on the trend spider indicators and let's look at some of our technical indicators to see how they pair with the price action and we're looking at weekly RSI macd and the Bollinger band squeeze indicator and we can see we still have positive momentum on all of our indicators and our Rising 20 period moving average is starting to come up into that support zone right around spy 430.
so spy 430 looks like it's going to be the lowest spy goes within this bull Trend barring any Black Swan events and we still have bullish momentum across the board so there is nothing within the technicals that tell us we're rolling over and getting ready to die and we still have a lot of positive momentum as we approach the buy Zone which is going to be that critical support right around 4 30.
again it doesn't guarantee we go to 4 30 but that's where we're likely go going to see high volume buying and continue into the bull train next let's take a look at the weekly chart of the NASDAQ 100 triple cues and we can see the same exact story I spy with a rising 20 period moving average a very bearish weekly candle and we're likely going to find support between 360 and 370.
now we have bullish technicals across the board and the weekly RSI has stayed overbought which is a very good indicator of a very powerful bull Trend and we have the weekly macd and the Bollinger band squeeze still pushing to the upside even though in the short term it does look like we're losing a little bit of momentum but that's completely normal as we approach support to see some of these indicators cooling off and getting ready for the next leg higher now the number one thing I want you to pay attention to is that the triple cues led the way higher during the bull market and during the bear Market they led the way lower with the all-time high being in late 2021 even though the all-time high in the S P 500 was in early 2022 so the tech sector has led the way in both directions which is exactly what we want to see and then the next step of a bull market is we want to see the market breath improving which means we want to see the other sectors starting to participate as well so we already have the evidence that is objective that the tech sector led the way higher and had a very powerful bull market the next step of the equation is to look at the small caps which is the iwm ETF and we can see on this weekly chart we have just started to fire the weekly Boulder band squeeze in the bottom of your screen we have the first indicator from the momentum that we have the green light on the squeeze and we're firing to the upside and this upper boner band is going to start opening up and expanding allowing price to go higher because we were outside the upper Boulder ban over the last three weeks it's been very difficult for iwm to push through that resistance level at 197.
now a lot of things are going to start playing out over the coming weeks that as big Tech is cooling down and we're seeing some rebalancing which you're going to see in Apple stock after earnings with the sell-off a lot of that money is going to move out of big Tech and it's going to start rotating around the market and a lot of love is likely coming to the small caps which is very evident by the technical indicators the macd is just now Crossing above zero and it's getting more and more pause momentum on the histogram the bone demand squeeze is still firing to the upside which likely means we have seven to eight more weeks of bullish activity at a very minimum in the small caps and we still have the weekly RSI Above 50.
So for that reason if you have missed a lot of the bull Trend in spy in the triple cues you still have a perfect opportunity here in the small caps to capture some of the bullish move coming in the small caps which is in the iwm ETF so if you understand these technicals and I have done a tutorial on these this is telling us we're likely about to see more bullish activity in the iwetm which is going to favor those small caps and that's likely going to mean we say a lot of love going to the financial sector you can also see on the options we have a lot of out of money call options that go all the way out to late August and those are premiums above four hundred thousand dollars so there are some big bets coming into the upside as well so pay attention to the momentum indicators in iwm and watch that critical resistance at 197 because once we see price action breaking through 197 we are likely going to see impulsive buying all the way into the 220s and then quickly we will look at the Dow Jones which is also getting the weekly Bollinger band squeeze starting to fire so we're starting to see a lot of positive momentum in the Dow Jones which is going to favor the Industrials and iwm which is going to favor the small caps and again we have weekly positive momentum in all of these indices and that's why I told you it looks like the triple cues were leading the way higher because now we're starting to see an inverse Head and Shoulders breakout in the Dow Jones with a weekly squeeze firing to the upside with a lot of positive momentum so I think you're going to be very surprised at the amount of upside coming to the market with a lot of that market breath improving and a lot of that money now going into the Dow Jones in the small caps so understand these are weekly charts and that doesn't mean any of this needs to play out as early as next week or Monday or Tuesday these are the next seven to eight weeks and I'm telling you ahead of time that it's likely going to happen and then in a couple of months from now we'll come back to this and we'll see how correct we were but the last time I made this call was in spy in the triple cues and we've had very powerful bull runs and now we're starting to see it playing out in the Dow Jones and the Russell 2000 so there's likely going to be plenty of rotation coming up and if we jump back over to spy again we had that Weekly squeeze and we fired and we had a lot of bullish activity and we're still seeing that in the indices and we still have bullish momentum on these weekly charts which means we are still in a bull market we're still in Bull Trends and that's opportunities to buy at support and not panic and lose our mind as we're starting to get pullbacks remember what I said earlier you want to buy during the pullback and you want to sell during the rallies and you want to get in the habit of buying low and selling high and get into that ebb and flow of the market of higher lows and higher highs buy it to higher lows and sell at the higher highs and continue to manage a risk around the critical levels and you're going to do very well in this market if you still have a bear bias and you think everything I'm saying is wrong and you think we're going much lower that's completely fine everybody's entitled to their own opinion but what I did here was reasonable and objective technical analysis on why I think we're going higher and I'm not using any bias I'm letting the chart do all the talking so you can trade however you want and you can manage your risk however you want but this is what I see on the chart and I think we're going to much higher prices this year so if you want to come crush this Market consider joining Bank alerts or the stock Channel
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