저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 과열 신호를 경계하되 단기 폭락 예측보다 장기 투자 관점을 유지하라는 취지다. 마젤란펀드 운용 기간 1000달러 투자 시 약 2700% 수익(진행자 인용)이라는 성과를 언급한다. 과거 시장 사이클 회고: 1960~70년대에는 투자에 관심이 거의 없었고, 80년대로 갈수록 주식 추천이 늘어났다. 출연자는 택시기사가 주식을 추천하기 시작하면 빠져나올 때라는 경험칙을 소개했다. 현재와의 유사성: 진행자는 최근 암호화폐 열풍과 주변의 주식 추천 확산이 과거 과열 사이클과 비슷하다고 보고 있다. 출연자는 2020년 3월 코로나 폭락 전 과열을 느껴 이익 실현 후 폭락 시 분할 매수했다고 밝혔다. 1987년 폭락 경험: 출연자는 휴가 중 시장이 이틀간 급락해 자산의 약 1/3을 잃었고, 펀드 투자자 문의 응대를 위해 귀국했다고 회고했다. 펀드 운용 중에는 고객 문의 대응이 중요한 업무라고 강조했다. 1987년 폭락 원인 분석: 1982년 777에서 1986년 1700까지 상승, 1987년 8월 2700 도달 후 2개월간 1000포인트 하락, 하루 508포인트 폭락. 출연자는 기업 실적은 양호했고 과열과 과도한 밸류에이션이 원인이라고 분석했다. 1986년 9월~1987년 10월 사이 지수는 사실상 횡보했고, 하락만 기억에 남았다는 점을 지적했다. 최근 시장 비교: 짧은 기간 급등락하는 밈주식(AMC 등)의 분봉 단위 움직임이 과거 1987년식 투기 흐름과 닮았다고 언급했다. 리스크: 과열 구간에서는 이익 실현이 필요하고, 폭락 시에는 감정적 대응보다 원칙적 대응이 중요하다는 취지다. 출연자 전망: 명확한 1~3개월 가격 예측은 없고, 과열 경계와 장기 관점을 강조했다.
다듬은 글
this is an interesting question if i'd put a thousand dollars in magellan on the day you took over how much would i have reaped on the day you retired and he says if you put in a thousand bucks on the start it would have been 28 000 uh 13 years later so that's 2700 percent return on your investment which is mighty solid i would say they go on to say talk about the change in 86 and 87 so this was an interesting question because i was like a baby when this happened but um they go on to talk he goes on to talk about how rough the market was at that time and there's actually a lot of parallels or a few parallels with what we might be going through soon here too um talk about the change in 86 and 87 well i remember in my career you'd say to somebody you worked in the investment business like you're at a party yeah i work in investing and they'd say that's interesting do you sail like what do you think of the celtics i mean it would just go right onto the next subject like they didn't give a crap nobody cared they would have some interest in that subject but if you said you were in investment business they said oh terrific do your children go to school it was just right it was just right to the next subject you could have been a leper you know uh and been much more interesting so that was sort of the attitude in the 60s and the 70s like zero people cared about investing at that time which is fascinating um as the market started to heat up you'd say you were an investor oh that's interesting are there any stocks you're buying and people would listen not avidly they'd think about it uh but then as the 80s piled on they started writing things down so i remember people would really take an interest if you were in the investment business saying what do you like and then it turned and i remember the final page of the chapter would be you'd be at a party and everybody would be talking about stocks and then people would recommend stocks to me and then i remembered not only that but the stocks would go up i look in the paper and i noticed they'd go up in the next three months and then you've done the full cycle of the speculative cycle that people hate stocks they despise they don't want to hear anything about them now they're buying everything and cab drivers are recommending stocks so that was the sort of cycle i remember going through from the 60s to the 70s all the way up to 87 which is fascinating because they say when your taxi driver starts to recommend stocks to you or starts to recommend investments to you it's probably time to start backing out um and i feel like that is kind of happening now especially with crypto uh what do you guys think i'm interested to hear your thoughts on that i know a lot of you guys are newer investors but that's something i started to see even last year i think even leading up to kind of the the corona crash in march um and i was kind of like why does it feel so over hot right now and i like pulled back massively uh and just took profit massively and then when things fell apart i was able to you know pour into a bunch of different stocks that i like going on to 1980 or continuing on to 1987 where were you when the crash of 1987 came well i was very well prepared for the crash in 1987.
my wife and i took our first vacation in eight years and we left on thursday in october and i think that day the market went down 55 points and we went to ireland the first trip we'd ever been there and then on friday because of the time difference we almost completed the day and i called the market i called and the market was down 115 points i said to carolyn if the market goes down on monday we'd better go home and we're already here for the weekend so we'll spend the weekend so it went down 508 on monday so i went home so in two business days i had lost a third of my fund so i figured at that rate the week could have been a rough week so i went home like i could do something about it i mean it's like he's saying that sarcastically like i could do something about it um i mean it's like you know if there was something i could do i mean there i there i was but i think if people called up and said what's lynch doing and they said well he's on the eighth hole and he's he's got every par so far but he's in a trap this could be a triple bogey i mean i think that's not what they wanted to hear i think they wanted to hear i'd been there looking over everything i mean there's not a lot you can do when the market's in a cascade but i got home as quickly as i could um that's one of the tricky things about managing a fund is that people are going to call you up and be like what's happening with my money what are you doing with my investments while everything's falling apart that's your job kind of thing whereas for us individuals we don't have to deal with that so that's pretty nice um have you guys been through a market crash before and if you have been uh how did you handle it did you just sit back and watch did you sell everything what did you do why did the crash of 1987 happen well i think people had not analyzed 87 very well i think you really have to put it in perspective 1982 the market's at 777.
it's all the all the way to 86 it stayed like that you have to move to 1700 you have to move to 1700 in four years the market moves from 777 to 1700 in four years okay so it wasn't flat it went up then in nine months it puts on another thousand points so it puts a thousand points on in four years and then in the next nine months it puts on another thousand so in august of 1987 it's 2700.
it's gone up a thousand points in nine months then it falls a thousand points in two months 500 points the last day so if the market got sideways at 1700 no one would have worried but it went up a thousand in nine or ten months and then down a thousand in two months and half of it in one day you would have said the world's over it was the same price so it really was a question of the market just kept going up and up and it just went to such an incredible high price by historic price earnings multiple load dividend yields and all the other statistics but people forget that basically it was unchanged in 12 months if you looked at september of 86 to october 87 the market was unchanged it had a thousand point up at a thousand points down and they only remember the down they thought oh my goodness this is the crash it's all over it's going to go to 200 and we're going to be selling apples and pencils you know but it wasn't it was very it was a very unique phenomenon because companies were doing just fine just you know we'd call up a company and say we can't figure it out we're doing well our orders are good our balance sheet's good we just announced we're going to buy some of our stock we can't figure out why it's going down so much so unlike what we've had over the last year in 87 the only reason for this huge crash was because it got too hot there was no reason for it to be that high so really it should have just gone sideways for a year but because people were doing crazy stuff it it pumped and then it dumped um which is fascinating you know and we see i feel like we see more of that today um and even hyper if you zoom in on stocks like amc last week it's like minute by minute doing that rather than over a year or something like that
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