저자: TreyMcKee · 외국인
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결론: 페이팔은 장기적으로 성장할 가능성이 크지만 단기 투자는 위험하니 한꺼번에 매수하지 말고 분할매수(달러 코스트 애버리징)를 권함. 실적 분석: 3분기 결제량(TPV)은 전년 대비 38% 증가한 2,470억 달러, 매출은 54.6억 달러 수준으로 기록적 성장. GAAP EPS 0.86달러, non-GAAP EPS 1.07달러로 전년 대비 증가했으나 전분기 대비 소폭 하락. 영업현금흐름은 큰 폭 감소(자사주 매입 등 영향). 성장 지표: 계정 수 1,520만 개 증가(전년 대비 약 55%), 계정당 거래 건수 상승으로 팬데믹 기간 신규 가입자들이 일상 결제에 익숙해지는 신호. 2020년 전체 결제량 30%, 매출 20% 성장 전망. 베누모: 결제량 전년 대비 61% 증가, 연매출 9억 달러(2021년 목표)와 흑자전환 기대, 곧 출시될 베누모 신용카드가 호재. 다만 전체 사업에서 차지하는 비중은 작음. 재무제표: 자산 증가(단기투자, 대출·채권 중심)는 성장기 기업 특성상 경고 신호는 아니라고 평가. 3분기 순이익 10억 달러 돌파, 기술 투자 확대. PER은 전 영상(약 109배) 대비 약 86배로 하락. 기관 보유: 주식의 약 84%가 기관 보유로 개인 비중이 낮아, 시장 유행에 따라 주가 변동성이 클 수 있음. 캐시 우드(ARK Invest): 페이팔 주식을 대량 매수하고 테슬라 주식은 일부 차익실현. 핀테크가 전통 은행을 대체할 것이라는 논리. 주가 및 리스크: 영상 제작 시점 주가 약 175달러 → 당시 약 215달러로 상승. 시장이 과열 상태이고 최고가 부근이며, 미국 대선 결과에 따라 단기 변동 가능성. 진행자 개인은 페이팔 서비스 경험(분쟁·환불·계정 동결 등)이 나빠 개인적으로 매수하지 않지만 주식 자체를 나쁜 투자라고 단정하지는 않음. 결론적 견해: 장기적으로 계속 성장할 기업으로 보나, 단기 목돈 투자는 위험하며 소액으로 여러 달에 걸쳐 나눠 사는 방식을 추천.
다듬은 글
paypal recently dropped their third quarter earnings hitting another home run but interestingly their stock price dropped down after that since then with all the election drama we've seen the price take off is paypal still a buy right now welcome back to the channel family my name is trey getting in touch with you from japan we are in the midst of a really really chaotic week with election drama and pandemic infection numbers increasing around the world yet all at the same time we're seeing stocks especially tech stocks like booming it'll be very interesting to see how this works out but all that to say keep the drama in mind when thinking about your long-term strategy don't get too caught up in oh my gosh prices are going up higher higher i better buy in now because we don't really know what's actually going to happen with the election or with the pandemic and just remember slow and steady wins the race dollar cost averaging tends to work out pretty well in the end about three months back i did a video on paypal who they are what they do a little bit about how they've grown in their history and things like that if you haven't seen that yet check it out up here if you're interested but today we wanted to take a look at third quarter earnings and share a little bit about the direction paypal may be going going into the future as well as my thoughts on whether or not the stock is a buy right now at the time of filming of the last video the stock price was about 175 since then it's gone through some ups and downs and this morning at market close this morning because i'm in japan at market close it was like 2 15 or something so it's gone up a lot so is it like did i make a bad call where are we sitting with this stock so we're going to take a look at what we learned in the earnings report as well as some of the other news going on if you're not super familiar with paypal it's been around for a long time and in 2015 it split off from ebay it used to be a part of ebay and the reason it was able to gain that kind of first mover advantage is because buying on the internet wasn't something a lot of people were really used to at the time and so paypal being the representative of the buyer and the seller at the same time conveniently netting it more income also was able to filter out fraud and figure out kind of like the risk levels of different buyers and sellers and stuff like that and so that's continued to be their advantage i used to use them a lot when i did a lot of wholesale importing from china because i knew that paypal would be willing to fight for me if i sent thousands of dollars and never ever got anything and because it represents both sides of the equation it can put together really high resolution risk profiles and buying and purchase profiles of the buyers and sellers or shops or merchants and therefore figure out can we offer a loan to this company because they seem to be really good at managing their money maybe we can make even more money off them or on the flip side maybe we shouldn't be working with this person anymore because they never pay their bills so having all of that data on all of the buyers and sellers has given paypal a really good position as one of the first movers moving into kind of this digital shopping digital currency and slowly shifting into maybe bitcoin and other digital currencies going into the future in recent years we've seen the rise of square who is preferred by a lot of people we've we're also seeing paypal answer back with venmo and loads of other services like apple pay and it seems like here in japan like every actually every company has their own whatever pay thing going on and it's just getting out of hand but paypal has really solidified that first mover advantage we did see electronic payments surpass cash payments a couple of years ago like i think it was 2000 late 2017 or early 2018 and so it's going to become more and more a part of our daily lives here in japan recently the government said hey anytime you use an electronic payment method we're going to refund you three to five percent of your transaction fees and so shopping at participating stores or merchants gave you a lower price and therefore pushing kind of that really huge elderly demographic of japan who was just like no cash only ever for life now a lot of them are starting to use other payment methods so moving forward i think it's safe to say that we're going to see fi fintech or financial tech growing and growing and probably even like kathy wood for mark invest mentions that probably a lot of these are going to be replacing traditional banks huge you know big buildings where you go and put your card in a machine to get money out and stuff like that like those banks might be going away kind of in short order here and being replaced by fintech so all that said let's take a look at paypal's third quarter report and sure enough paypal is also benefiting from this growing transactions they have this little chart here that shows that payment volume was up 38 to 247 billion just in this quarter alone that's massive growth and keep in mind that they're getting a portion of every single payment that goes through them this works out to a revenue gain of 25 to 5.46 billion and i think net revenues and total payment volume both experienced records for paypal this quarter we saw gaap eps landing at about 86 cents and non-gaap eps landing up at about a buck 07 which is a little bit down from last quarter but still very much up year over year interestingly though we did see a large drop in operating cash flows as shown here one of the causes of this was a one point million share repurchase and we'll get into that and some of the other causes in a minute we did also see the number of accounts increase significantly though not as much as in the second quarter that being said the average transactions per account has jumped up recently suggesting that the big load of people that signed up in the second quarter are now starting to get more used to using things like paypal for their everyday transactions obviously when things shut down in the second quarter we saw a lot of people being like oh i need to pay for stuff online now i guess paypal is the way to do it and a lot of vendors are kind of like we prefer if you pay through paypal for all the reasons mentioned earlier and so we saw this big boom but a lot of them weren't really using paypal so much but we're seeing that number jump up significantly this quarter which is a good sign for paypal so they showed a 15.2 million account gain year over year which is 55 and they've projected overall for the whole of 2020 they're projecting a 30 gain in total payment volume as well as a 20 gain in revenues year over year compared to the total of 2019.
i mentioned venmo earlier venmo is paypal's digital wallet and social payment platform we saw a payment volume up 61 year-over-year on venmo which is a really good sign for them as well and shows that they're not too far out of step with some of the other competition that are stepping in and threatening to take some of their space which is a crucial sign showing us that they're not out of the race with people like square who are stepping onto their territory and offering a more kind of like free social send money to your friends type platform which paypal wasn't really up until venmo entered the scene management expects venmo's annual revenues to hit 900 million by 2021 along with a turn over to profitability this should be especially aided by the upcoming venmo credit card which has been on the horizon for a bit now all that being said this still makes up a very small part of the overall business let's take a quick look at the balance sheet and then the income statement just to see if there are any red flags or things that we should look out for first we have the balance sheet and i just wanted to highlight a couple of points for you here note the huge gain in assets especially in short-term investments loans and receivables there on the liability front we see similar proportion size gains but i don't think there are any huge alarm bells for companies growing as fast as paypal seems to be growing moving on to the income statement we have in the center there the three months ending september 30th of 2020 and then 2019 and then on the right nine months ended september 30th 2020 and 2019.
so you can compare just this quarter and then year to date for both years some noteworthy highlights for you include a similar expense to revenue ratio compared to last year but we're seeing that they're pumping more into technology and development which is always good to see a juicy boost in the bottom line of the net income surpassing 1 billion which is big news looks like we're on pace to pull in even juicier profit margins than last year thanks to paypal's good timing on being in the right place at the right time as far as being able to capitalize on pandemic related market impacts looks like we're also on pace to pull in a higher eps this year than last year which is expected i think taking a step back and looking at the stock price we see an improving earnings per share and improving p e ratios simultaneously over where they were last quarter p ratios have come down a bit to the not much more rational but more understandable 86 as opposed to last video i think they were at 109 but one of the really surprising things i found when i was looking to the company that i kind of wasn't really expecting actually was that the percentage of paypal shares held by institutions that is like investment banks or funds is 84 now and so that goes to say there aren't a lot of individuals uh retail investors holding a stock and a huge percentage of them are owned by wall street or investment funds or things like that and so that's not necessarily like a scary thing or a bad thing but what we can see is that when things are in vogue it looks really good and the stock price can rise really like loftily really easily like we've seen in the last quarter but at the same time when it goes out of vogue and wall street's just kind of like ah we're done with paypal we might see a similar decrease in the price it's not necessarily a red flag it's just something for you to know if you're considering becoming an owner of paypal stock i mentioned kathy wood of arc invest who a lot of people really look up to to figure out investing strategies for the future kathy wood also went out recently and bought a bunch of paypal shares like a big bunch of paypal shares while also taking profit on tesla shares and her thesis is that stocks like paypal and services like venmo are going to eventually replace banks and therefore we should get in while things are growing and so what do we think about paypal it's very clear that they're growing and they're capitalizing on current market conditions as well but are we seeing that growth properly reflected in the stock price i think the ball is really in your court on this last time i mentioned like i don't really like paypal i think it's a good stock as far as future growth prospects i personally as a small business guy as an entrepreneur who set up a bunch of different website businesses like don't like working with paypal and so i'm like biased against it and so it's easy for me to just be like nope never investing in paypal i hate them their service sucks they always piss me off and they always make you jump through all these huge hoops just to like get the money that customers have already paid you and sometimes they'll even refund customers who are lying to them and take your money out of your bank account to refund it to them and stuff like that i've just had too many negative experiences with paypal to feel comfortable being like i'm an owner of paypal now you know so i don't want my bias to impact you if you look around on reddit you'll see like every small business person and entrepreneur who has a net shop hates paypal as well well i want to put that out there for you but we can push that aside and look at the stock objectively i think paypal is going to keep growing i think their stock probably over the years i'm not sure about short term as i mentioned the market is just really insane right now and so i'm not gonna tell you like buy it now because tomorrow it's gonna go up five percent again um we're hitting all-time highs at the moment and really a lot of the built-in like enthusiasm that's happened in the market in the last couple of days could change who's gonna be the president we don't really know you know so i think investing like a big chunk of your money right now could be quite risky if you really like paypal and you want to be in it long term grab a couple shares here grab a couple in a month grab a couple in a couple of months you know and just dollar costs into it and i think you'll be good to go going into the future i think this is going to be a company that just keeps growing and we're really seeing that especially in these tricky conditions right now so that's my thoughts on paypal again i just dislike their service too much for me to be buying it but i'm not necessarily saying hey you should not buy this because it's a bad investment so looking forward to hearing your thoughts and your comments down below in the comments section talk to you guys soon and have a great day
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