LEARN MARKET TIMING FROM THE MASTER Peter Lynch #stocks #investing

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결론: 시장 타이밍은 불가능하니 장기 보유와 배당 기업 투자가 유리하다는 주장. 피터 린치 인용: 지난 95년간 10% 이상 하락이 53회, 25% 이상 약세장이 15회로 약 6년에 한 번꼴로 큰 하락이 온다고 설명. 하락 시점은 아무도 예측할 수 없으므로 주식 투자 전 감내 능력(stomach)을 먼저 점검해야 한다고 강조. 투자 기간이 1~2년이면 도박과 같으며, 시간이 길수록 주식 투자 승률이 높아진다고 주장. 1966~1982년 시장이 사실상 횡보했지만 배당을 받아 연 수익률이 플러스였다는 사례 제시. 기업 이익은 장기적으로 연 약 8%씩 성장(9년마다 2배)하며 주가와 높은 상관관계가 있다고 설명. 앞으로도 GE, 월마트, 마이크로소프트 등 우량 기업이 더 많은 이익을 낼 것이라는 장기 낙관론. 진행자는 월 1~2회 거래하는 편이며 코로나 폭락 때 린치 조언을 듣고 매수했다고 언급. 진행자는 노키아가 저평가되어 있고 최근 크게 올랐다고 언급하며, 테슬라·팔란티어 등 배당 없는 성장주도 보유 중이라고 밝힘. 대상 자산 중 구체적 가격 방향을 제시한 발언은 없음.

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01. next one also quite relevant for today talk about market timing what do you think about market time in peter lynch um peter lynch guys if you're just tuning in peter lynch ran at the magellan fund he's one of the most successful investors of all time and in his i think it was 16 year 10 year running the fund it went up 2 700 so um quite a solid return i must say um so they're saying peter lynch talk about market timing the market itself is very volatile we've had 95 hello something just went flying in my closet that's cool so going back to that um we've had 95 years completed of this century okay so this interview was in 1996 i guess we're in the middle of 96 and we're close to a 10 decline in the 95 years so far we've had 53 declines in the market of 10 or more not 53 down years okay so that's once every two years of the 53 declines 15 of the 53 have been 25 or more that's a bear market so 15 and 95 years about once in every six years you're going to have a big decline um and i think we were having some some debate a little while back talking about was last year's does that count because it was not caused by you know some random economic stuff but it was caused by the epidemic i would say it probably does count because a lot of these other factors are you know wars or things happening around the world and stuff like that so kind of every six years here you should expect to have something big like that which is also fascinating to keep on your mind which is another reason to keep cash on hand um but he says now no one seems to know when they're gonna happen at least if they know about him they're not telling anybody about him i don't remember anybody predicting the market right right more than once and they predict a lot so that so that's going to happen if you're in the market you have to know there's going to be declines and they're going to cap and every couple of years you're going to get a 10 correction uh that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money very rapidly that's what a correction is called and a bear market is 20 25 30 decline they're gonna happen uh when they're going to start no one knows if you're not ready for that you shouldn't be in the stock market i mean stomach is the key organ here it's not the brain do you have the stomach for these kinds of declines and what's your timing like is your horizon one year is your horizon 10 years or 20 years if you've been lucky enough to save up lots of money you're go you're about to send one kin to college and your child's starting a year from now uh you decide to invest in stocks directly or with a mutual fund with a one-year horizon or two-year horizon that's silly that's just like betting on red or black at the casino what the market's going to do in one or two years you don't know time is on your side in the stock market it's on your side and when stocks go down if you've got the money you don't worry about it and you're putting in more you shouldn't worry about it you should worry what our stock's going to be 10 years from now 20 years from now 30 years from now i'm very confident so again that long-term perspective the longer you're in the stock market the higher your chances are of winning it's kind of like the opposite of vegas the casinos you know the more transactions you do in a casino the more those odds are going to stack up against you 52 to 48 or whatever it is you know you might go in and you know hit the jackpot once or maybe even twice in a million years but the longer you're in there the more likely you are to come out negative and it's the opposite for us being in the stock market interestingly let me know what you guys think about that um how i'm kind of interested to ask you guys like how many transactions a month do you guys do is it like you know maybe adding to one position once a month kind of thing or is it like you know a few transactions a day i always like to get to know you guys more um so i can kind of tailor the the content a little bit more to you guys um today you know we're looking at peter lynch he's giving a lot of kind of basic foundational advice for people which i think is helpful especially for beginners but it's also helpful for non-beginners like me um to get perspective from you know these these guys who've been doing this for a lot longer than i have um but yeah let me know how often one or two a month silverspoon16 what's up thanks for joining so we got one or two transactions a month i would say i probably in the average month um it's probably like five or six something like that four five or six so i'm not hyper super duper active um but when we saw stuff like you know last march april i was doing like a lot every day i was just like buy buy it would go down 10 buy more of a bunch of different stocks and go down 10 buy more a bunch of different stocks kind of thing so i'm prepared to do a lot more than that but um generally i just want to be kind of like buy and hold um lonely otaku almost every morning buying and selling interesting what about the rest of you guys clowning around i buy whenever i have cash it all depends on money in the market rob b i find that i know all this stuff but for me it's important to constantly hear and reinforce if there is even a six percent market dip and you haven't heard this advice in a long time you get worried yeah seriously man um that's why i'm kind of enjoying doing this series a lot of this isn't new you know um like draken miller said last week they're like what lesson did you learn after you lost three billion dollars in one day and he's like i didn't learn a lesson i already learned that lesson like 20 years ago i just freaking forgot and then he was sharing about um basically the dot-com bubble he had timed it pretty well and he would like cashed out basically but he saw a bunch of his um the other fund managers around him who stayed in and got even more gains than him and every day he would just watch him and be like oh my gosh i'm missing gains i'm missing out i'm missing out i'm missing out and then he's like dude screw it i'm getting back in one hour before the top the dot-com bubble crashed and then i think it said i think he said he lost three or five billion dollars in like an hour which is like i can't even that it like hurts just to even talk about that um so yeah thanks for sharing that rob um during the covet crash listening to people like peter is what gave me the confidence to buy during the crash yeah seriously same here guys let me know in the comments section how many transactions a month do you do in the stock market so let's get back into it peter lynch if you had invested in 1966 it would have taken 15 years to make the money back they call that a question that's actually not a question that's a statement says well from 66 to 82 the market was basically flat but you still had dividends in stocks you still had a positive return you made a few percent a year that was the worst period other than the 1920s in the century so companies still pay dividends even though even even if their stock goes sideways for 10 years they continue to pay you dividends they continue to raise their dividends so you have to say to yourself what are corporate profits going to do historically corporate profits have grown about eight percent a year eight percent a year they double every nine years they quadruple every 18.

02. they go up six-fold every 25 years so guess what in the last 25 years corporate profits have gone up a little over six fold the stock market's gone up a little bit over six fold and you had a two or three percent dividend yield you made about 11 a year there's an incredible correlation over time so you have to say to yourself what's going to happen in the next 10 20 30 years do i think the general electrics the sears the walmarts the microsoft's the mercs the johnsons and johnson and johnson's the gillettes anheuser-busch are they going to be making more money 10 years from now 20 years from now i think they will will new companies come along like federal express that came along in the last 20 years will new companies come come along like amgen that make money will new companies come along like compact computer i think they will there will be new companies coming along that make money that's what you're investing in he makes it feel so simple and clean and straightforward um so he's saying even though it was a flat market from 66 to 82 if you're in solid companies that are paying a dividend you did all right um that's also another interesting thing for me to consider because i'm like not i don't like seek dividends i'm not like wow that's a really good dividend stock i'm getting in you know with companies like nokia i'm primarily getting in because i see how undervalued they are and it's been doing magnificently actually it's like up 70 or something in the last few weeks um and it's like dude this is awesome but the cherry on the top is that i know that in 2023 probably they're aiming for they might reinstate a dividend you know and so if you buy thousands of stocks while it's like a three dollar stock probably the dividend even if it's like one percent is still going to be pretty decent you know um and then you add on top of that the potential price appreciation because it was so undervalued for a while so stocks like that it's like yeah i'll probably have dividends even if it just goes sideways for 15 years but a lot of my portfolio tesla uh palantir probably even dropbox um a lot of these kinds of companies are just kind of like nope we are not in that mode to pay dividends so i don't know how those would work out you know in a 15-year kind of time horizon