저자: PeterLynch/진행자:TreMcKee추정 · 외국인
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결론: 1987년 폭락은 펀더멘털이 양호해 공포가 과했고, 1990년 하락은 이라크의 쿠웨이트 침공과 은행위기가 겹친 진짜 위험이었으며, 종목 선택은 소비자 제품 체감 등 펀더멘털 리서치가 핵심이라는 주장. 1987년 폭락: 피터 린치는 기업의 재무제표와 사업, 경기 환경을 보며 대응했고, 1987년은 펀더멘털이 좋아 주가 하락에 근거가 없었다고 설명. 1990년 위기: 린치가 30년간 가장 무서웠던 시기로 꼽음. 이라크의 쿠웨이트 침공, 부시 대통령의 50만 명 병력 사우디 파견, 뉴욕 대형은행 위기, 경기침체 신호(재고 누적, 실적 둔화)가 겹침. 이때는 미국이 전쟁과 금융시스템을 버틸 것이라는 믿음이 필요했다고 설명. 종목 사례: 헤인즈(Hanes) 스타킹 'Leg's'를 아내가 발견해 투자, 소비자 체감 조사(슈퍼마켓 48켤레 구매 후 직원 테스트)로 경쟁제품 'No Nonsense'를 비교해 품질 우위를 확인하고 보유. 이후 Consolidated Foods에 인수됨. 인수가 없었다면 10배가 아닌 30배 수익이 가능했을 것이라는 언급. 투자 스타일 비교: 제품을 직접 써보는 투자자와 재무지표 위주 투자자의 차이 언급. 팔란티어·노키아처럼 직접 쓰기 어려운 종목도 관심은 가능하다고 함. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언 없음. 진행자는 Wynn Resorts(마카오 카지노 라이선스 해자) 관련 언급, 짐 크레이머 식 분석과 대비. 장기 투자 철학 위주의 내용.
다듬은 글
peter lynch what was the most scared you ever were in your career he says 87 wasn't that scary because i concentrate on fundamentals i call up companies i look at their balance sheet i look at their business i look at the environment the decline was kind of scary and you tell yourself will this infect the basic consumer will this drop make people stop buying cars or stop buying houses appliances stop going to restaurants and you worry about that the reality in 1987 the decline was nothing like 1990.
in 1990 in my 30 years of watching stocks very carefully was by far the scariest period then they go on to say what was so scary about 1990 um i was not in the stock market in 1990 if you were let me know in the comment section but uh he goes on to explain 1990. well 1990 there was a situation where i think it's almost exactly six years ago uh so this interview was 1996.
in the summer of 1990 the market markets around 3 economy is doing all right and saddam hussein decides to walk and invade kuwait so we have invasion of kuwait and president bush sends 500 000 troops to saudi to protect saudi arabia there's a very big concern about you know are we going to have another vietnam war a lot of serious people have said this is going to be a terrible war iraq has the fourth largest army in the world they fought really well against iran these people are tough this is going to be a long awful thing so people were very concerned about that but in addition we had a very major banking crisis in the us all the new all the major new york city banks bank of america uh the real cornerstone of this country were really in trouble and this is a lot different than if wt grant went under penn central one under banking is really tight and you had to hope that the banking system would hold together and that the federal reserve understood that city core chase chemical manufacturers hanover bank of america were very important to this country and that they would survive and then we had let me scroll down for you guys um and then we had a recession unlike 87 you called companies in 1990 you call companies and they say gee our business is starting to slip interview inventories are starting to pile up we're not doing that well man so you really at that point in time you had to beli uh you had to believe the whole thing would hold together and that we wouldn't have a major war you really had to have faith in the future of this country in 1990.
in in 87 the fundamentals were terrific and it was uh it was like one of those uh three for two sales that kmart things were marked down it was the same story so in 87 we had no reason for the stocks to go down other than they got too hot too quickly but in 1990 the beginning of the iraq war and then also all of this banking crisis he doesn't go in to talk about much about why the banking crisis started um but those were probably the two big causes for the market being really scary tell a story about your wife stumbling on a big stock for you in the supermarket so this one's a little bit longer um but it's fascinating because uh there's a little bit to learn from it i think for us um thank you ac um so he says i had a great luck i had great luck with a company called haynes probably all of you know haynes uh like underwear t-shirts um you know tank tops and stuff like that they test marketed a product called a product called legs in boston and i think in columbus maybe three or four markets and his wife carolyn bought this product home and she was buying and she said it's great um i think it was uh stockings or like pantyhose or something like that um she's almost got a black belt in shopping she's a very good shopper if we hadn't had these three kids she now when beth finally goes off to college i think we'll be able to resume her training um but she's a very good shopper and she would buy these things she said they're really great and i did a little bit of research i found out the average women goes to the supermarket or drugstore once a week and they go to a women's specialty store department store once every six weeks and all the good hosiery all the good pantyhose is being sold in department stores they were selling junk in supermarkets they were selling junk and the drugs drugstores so this company came up with a product they jack robbed it uh they had all the sizes all the fits uh and down uh and they never advertised price they just advertise this fits you'll enjoy it and it was a huge success and it became my biggest position and i always worried somebody come out with a competitive product in about a year and a half there they're on the market another large company called kaiser roth came out with a product called no nonsense they put it right next to legs in the supermarket right next to legs in the drugstore i said wow i got to figure this one out so i remember buying i bought 48 different pairs at the supermarket colors shapes and sizes they must have wondered what kind of house i had at home when i got to the register they just let me buy it so i bought i brought it into the office i gave it to everybody i said try this out and come back and see what's the story with no nonsense and people came back to me in a couple weeks and said it's not as good that's what fundamental research is so i held on to haynes and it was a huge stock and it was bought out by consolidated foods which is now called sarah lee and it's been a great division of that company it might have been a 30 bagger instead of a 10 bagger if it hadn't been bought out so this is one of the interesting things that comes up a lot of times even on youtube um you have big names big stock investors like uh jeremy and jeremy uh financial education i think his name is jeremy le favor or something like that but he pretty much for the most part only invests in stocks that he can do this with he can go down to planet 13 and you know have a meal there or he can go down to um what's that one casino he always talks about that really luxurious casino um you know and a lot of his stock at walgreens and stuff you know a lot of his stocks that he loves are ones that he can do this he can try on the pantyhose so to speak but then you have other investors uh who are straight up just look at the numbers just look at the p ratios and the financial analytics and stuff like that and if the numbers are good i buy it and then when they suck i sell it kind of thing um but when we look at people like peter lynch and i think buff it's a little bit like this too like the fundamental research of just knowing it's a good product and knowing that wow this competitor no nonsense yeah it's everywhere but it doesn't the the actual quality of it isn't going to hold a candle to the one put out by haynes legs um and so they knew they didn't have to be worried by they didn't have to feel threatened by this competition they didn't need to maybe you know grab some kaiser roth stock or you know ease out of haynes or anything like that they're just like nope we have hanes and we're good to go because the competition sucks as far as you know these offerings that were available in the drugstore so that's really interesting for me you know and for me i like to do that and i tend to be more passionate about stocks that i can you know that are tangible to me but at the same time looking at stocks like nokia or palantir i can't you know use palantir you know um but i'm still excited about it so interesting kind of perspective for me to consider what do you guys think about that oh yeah lonely otaku what's up he was saying the luxury hotel that jeremy likes is win the win resorts um which i've done a couple of videos on and actually is a pretty neat company with some of the licensing moats that they have especially in macau because there's like very very it's basically impossible to get a casino license in macau because it's so strictly regulated but they have one so or two now i think so that's kind of a cool company but that's very much how jeremy does it um what do you guys think about that let me know your thoughts
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