저자: TreMcKee · 외국인
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엔비디아는 2분기 매출 38.7억달러(+50% YoY), 데이터센터 매출 17.5억달러(+167%)로 성장 중이며 데이터센터가 최대 매출원이 되었다. 암호화폐 채굴 붐 종료로 게이밍은 둔화 추세지만 여전히 성장. 자율주행·인포테인먼트(메르세데스 협업)는 확장 중이나 자동차 매출은 전년比 47% 감소. 주가는 2020년 들어 116% 상승, PER 약 100로 부담이 있으나 향후 5년 두자릿수 성장 기대. 장기 보유로는 괜찮지만 단기 대폭 상승은 기대하기 어렵다는 입장.
다듬은 글
in today's video we're going to be taking a look at the smoking hot nvidia stock who's been on a tear for the last few months is there still time to get in join me today for this analysis so i've been wanting to take a look at nvidia for a very long time i've been a gamer since i was a little kid when i was i think when i was seven i built my first computer my big brother who's five years older than me taught me like all i know about building computers and you know graphics cards and how to do the motherboard and ram and cpu and hard drive and all that stuff so i've always been a big fan of nvidia actually in recent years nvidia has been branching out they don't just do gpus for gamers anymore and i learned a lot doing this analysis and actually i'm quite excited about this stock after digging into it so deeply you probably know that starting a couple years ago nvidia started to really get hot during the crypto mining bubble when everybody wanted to have their own computer mining crypto at home gpus are really good for that because they're really good at math they're better than the cpu in your computer in every computer they have thousands of little cores that are all processing in parallel which makes them really good for things like calculating ai or autonomous driving or things like that the crypto boom is now over which left nvidia with a bunch of stock on hand a couple years ago but they've continued to grow and they've also continued to transition into different parts of the market the graphics card market has mainly been dominated by nvidia and amd over the years although other competitors have kind of come and gone or snuck in and taken a niche but nowadays nvidia has taken over 70 of the market amd is lagging behind a little bit and nvidia especially with their new ray tracing stuff coming out seems to be kind of like really holding down the majority of the market i mentioned a minute ago that amd is starting to branch out into other technologies in other sectors those sectors also include things like data centers ai autonomous driving super computing and also options for cloud-based visual users and things like that as well in the recent press release on august 19th they released a bunch of their figures for the second quarter some of these blew me away so i wanted to share those with you check it out they have record revenue of 3.87 billion dollars up fifty percent from a year earlier last year wasn't spectacularly good for nvidia but being up fifty percent is really really good second one they have record data center revenue of 1.75 billion up 167 from a year earlier then the third highlight they mentioned was that melanox growth accelerated in its first quarter as part of nvidia and that contributed 14 of revenue and these revenue figures are up 26 from the previous quarter so not only are they doing better compared to last year they're also doing better compared to the first quarter of 2020.
the founder and ceo of nvidia is named jensen huang and he's also really positive looking forward he's excited about the next steps typically in a lot of my videos i'll kind of do an overview and then i'll do good stuff and then i'll do bad stuff that we need to watch out for and then i'll share my own thoughts but in today's video i wanted to break it down into three main sections first looking at the data center sector of their business second looking at the gaming sector of their business third looking at the remaining two sectors of their business vehicles and autonomous driving things like that and then also data visualization so just after the second quarter started the mellanox acquisition which is an israeli-based tech company was wrapped up for 6.9 billion dollars nvidia has already gotten their foot in the doors when it comes to data centers and cloud computing and things like that but they figured that adding melanox to their repertoire would really complement what they're already really good at and provide them with faster data centers which was melanox's strong point as a result of the melanox acquisition and growing data center revenues revenues were up 54 to 1.75 billion and up 167 from a year earlier surprisingly data centers have become the number one revenue segment for nvidia making up about 45 of their revenues now nvidia is now in a dominant position in this marketplace as well and i'm really excited to see where they go in the coming years they mentioned in their press release that out of the top 500 supercomputers in the world nvidia is powering eight of the top ten and two-thirds of all of those 500 supercomputers so that shows you not only that their technology is like the fastest but it also shows you that they have pretty good market penetration and market domination and when you're in that kind of position you have the steady income to be able to be pouring money into r d so much so that big players like intel can't even really get into the gpu market or the data center market on the scale that nvidia already has but it also gives them that platinum kind of reputation that makes people who are wanting to be building super computers or big data centers just immediately go to nvidia and nvidia has kind of always held that reputation in the marketplace of being more expensive than competitors but you're not going to be disappointed with the product one of the really dope things about the data center segment is that it boasts really healthy gross revenues of 65 to 70 percent not a lot of businesses can boast gross revenues like that management has made it clear that they're going to be continuing investing in r d so that they can stay at these top tier levels next i wanted to talk a little bit about gaming and therefore crypto mining i mentioned at the beginning of the video that crypto mining has tapered off it is now kind of in the hands of a few really big players for the most part and there aren't a lot of you know individual guys who are doing heavy duty crypto mining in their own house or something like that but in the gaming segment in general nvidia still continues to be one of the largest players granted this segment is generally trending to be smaller and smaller as gaming shifts to more mobile-based options we have things like nintendo switch kind of hitting parts of the market that gaming hasn't really ever in the past few years and in general we're seeing a trend into more casual type gaming all that to say revenues are still up compared to last quarter and they're still doing well i think it's just important to have our perspective correct as we're thinking about should we invest in nvidia or not all that being said second quarter revenues are up 24 from the first quarter and 26 compared to the same quarter last year so it can't be all that bad now that data centers have taken first place as nvidia's biggest revenue segment gaming is now in second place with about 1.65 billion in revenue in the second quarter alone for gamers like me taking a look at the ray tracing technology just blows my mind like it looks better than real life almost so i'm excited to see what's going to be coming in those arenas as well as like virtual reality and stuff like that but the more you look at really really heavy duty gaming computers the more you have to realize that that makes up a really small portion of the market geforce now their online streaming gaming platform also continues to grow if you don't know what that is basically they have really high powered computers around the world and you don't have to have a powerful computer but you log in and you're playing games on their remote systems so that basically means you don't have to have a big heavy duty graphics high power computer in your house you're basically outsourcing all of the gaming for a monthly fee you can access your steam games library on it and you can also just use the games that they already have available in their library generally speaking gpus which are graphic processing units that you put in your computer i've realized i haven't actually mentioned what they are so most computers have a cpu which is the brain that calculates everything and if you want to be doing more advanced calculations you want to be doing more math or gaming or ai type applications generally having a gpu in addition to it gives you a huge bump in power while in most consumer applications not costing that much the higher end graphics cards are still like more than a thousand bucks and they're like these big old things that you put in your big desktop from nvidia's point of view one of the really cool things is that selling these big time video cards graphic cards nets them more than 50 profit that being said i think those numbers will continue to become smaller and smaller over the years especially as cloud gaming like geforce now continue to be growing finally i wanted to go into auto and professional visualization i was surprised to find out that nvidia has made a partnership with mercedes-benz and they're planning to have all of their computers all of the all of their infotainment all powered by nvidia by 2024.
currently nvidia already has agreements going on with a lot of different manufacturers where they provide the infotainment which is basically like the nav screen audio that kind of stuff that's a really saturated market and that's not the kind of market where you're going to be pulling in huge margins or anything like that but nvidia is on the cutting edge when it comes to ai and autonomous driving many of you who watch me know that i love tesla tesla is one of the other competitors it's very much just a black box they have like a bunch of the world's greatest ai techs who are building crazy autonomous driving they're probably gonna be the first ones to get autonomous driving into their vehicles on the road there are five different levels of autonomous driving level five is full on like you sit in your car and you're like hey take me to the movie theater or take me to work and it just does everything tesla's kind of been saying for a while now like yeah we're we're like about to get there in a month or two elon musk tends to be like that but there are a bunch of other companies who are trying to reach this kind of like holy grail of level 5 autonomous driving nvidia is right there with them though there are many competitors in the autonomous driving sector nvidia's nvidia drive px platform already has more than 370 partners and i think that goes to show that there are a lot of companies that have a lot of trust in nvidia and their expertise but it also shows that a lot of people are depending on them to be one of the forerunners in autonomous driving going into the future nvidia is expecting to have roughly 40 million vehicles powered by their systems on the road by 2025 with a segment revenue of roughly 30 billion and they're saying that these cars will range from level 2 autonomy all the way up to level 5 autonomy so they are expecting to be able to achieve level 5 within the coming years and one of nvidia's goals is to be one of the ones who says hey guys we got it our ai our autonomous driving systems are the best hey mercedes you want to put it in your cars hey toyota you want to put in your cars and then go around and just sell it to like every automaker which i'm not sure tesla would be willing to do i'm not sure but it'll be really interesting to see how this goes in the coming years going back to infotainment competitors include intel and qualcomm and many other manufacturers and basically nvidia hasn't really shown a huge competitive advantage in that field because there's like only so much you can do on a little screen while you're driving revenues for the auto sector were down 28 from the previous quarter and down 47 from a year earlier to 111 million so keep in mind that the other segments i mentioned earlier were like 1.5 billion 1.6 billion so auto is still like 100 million so it's a much smaller part of the company i think the main reason for the slowing sales in this segment is slowing auto sales thanks to the global health crisis we also saw a similar revenue slowdown in professional visualizations i did want to take a quick glance at the income statement so put that up on the screen for you so we have the left side is three month period and the right side is six month periods um we have some good signs here with revenues going up like hardcore big time r d about the fifth lying down is also going up which we like to see as well as net income per share jump down here to the growth metrics we have one year sales growth of 28 one year eps growth of 42 a little bit of dividend growth granted their dividend is like really really small and you probably shouldn't even take that into account if you're gonna be picking up stocks and then jump all the way down to the bottom here financial metrics super juicy 62.8 percent gross margin carrying down to a net margin of almost 26 percent so just wanted to show you those before i get into my recommendation so what do we think about nvidia as a stock to invest in right now especially right after its big run up recently in my research it seems like generally a lot of people are pretty comfortable expecting a compound annual growth rate of 20-ish percent going forward which is tremendous for a company of this size especially when it comes to the data center segment i super wouldn't be surprised if data centers the segment of data centers takes over and becomes more than half of the revenue as gaming kind of slows down and autonomy is kind of starting to ramp up as well but talking about ai and autonomous driving i think one of the things we really need to be cautious about is that this market can be disrupted and can be turned around really really quickly and really simply it has a really high barrier to entry but there could be you know some chip maker or something that comes out and says hey guys we figured out x and then all of a sudden everybody's like whoa we're gonna go work with them instead it's happened before and it might happen again so you need to be aware of those risks when you're choosing to invest in companies like that that being said nvidia has been really kind of one of the premium players for a very long time now and it seems their management has that focus to keep pouring money into r d into the coming years as well taking a look at the stock price charts here the stock price is up 116 in 2020 alone and it's gone up like 6x or 8x or something like that in the last couple of years so we have a lot to kind of balance we have a lot to juggle when looking at the stock because the p ratio is about 100 the stock price has gone up so much already this year but at the same time they're still growing and we're still expecting double-digit growth going into the next five years and if they do manage to pull off something huge with autonomous driving and they continue their growth in data centers and ai and supercomputing we're going to see that nvidia is like powering a very large portion of everything that we do going into the future i know a lot of you guys already own tesla stocks when you're looking at the autonomous driving sector if you have tesla and you have nvidia you're kind of playing both sides of the coin there are other players messing around in this sector but it seems kind of like these are the two front runners for the time being and i think nvidia won't have the carpet swept out completely from under them um regardless of whether what other competitors can come up with but that being said the stock price is currently around 560-ish at the time of filming i wouldn't be surprised if we topped 600 bucks coming up i wouldn't be surprised if we topped 650 in the coming months um barring no you know crazy goofy stuff with elections or some huge downturn or something like that so i think i need to leave the ball in your court personally i like nvidia a lot i think it's going to keep growing well and i think it's a company you can trust and depend on and i do have a lot of friends who've owned it for years now and have done super duper well on it that being said is it the best use of your money there are plenty of other stocks on the market right now where you know you could potentially double or triple your money in the coming you know months or years i don't think nvidia is going to be doing that it is one of the really big kind of tech stalwarts that is in a position that can kind of capitalize on what we're going through with the health situation in the world right now and even if there is a big downturn i don't think their stock price is going to like fall apart or anything like that so i do recommend it as a stock to hold i don't necessarily think you're going to be making massive massive gains on it short term if you believe in the vision if you believe in the long term vision and the strength of their position in the market i think it's not bad to hold a few stocks i think it's not bad to dip your toes into it that being said again if you're looking for huge growth it's probably not the one for you right now as it's already gone through its huge growth phase in the last couple of months and years so i feel like i learned a lot looking into nvidia i'm pretty excited about the company excited to see what's going to be happening in the future especially when it comes to autonomy and stuff like that what do you guys think about nvidia do you think you're going to be buying it have you been holding it for a long time if you hold it do you are you thinking about selling it what are your thoughts have i missed anything looking forward to hearing your thoughts please join us in the comments section below we also have a subreddit going on over at reddit if you want to chat a little bit more in depth please join us over there looking forward to talking to you guys soon thank you very much love you guys and have a great day
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