저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
FOMC 및 파월 기자회견을 앞두고 현금 약 40% 확보. VIX 옵션 만기 접근에 따른 변동성 확대 가능성과 20일/22일선 지지·저항을 강조. SOXL은 반도체 상승추세 중간 지점에서 전량 매도(이전 고점 저항, 거래량 부족, 엔비디아 상승 반전 우려). 엔비디아는 콜 저항 260 부근에서 고점 신호로 해석. 향후 반도체 재진입 시점을 살피며 관망.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is America. The FMC interest rate decision and the foul anomaly press conference are about a day away. Since this is the most important event right now, I think it is necessary to be prepared to some extent. In my case, I currently hold about 40% in cash, and the rest consists of long positions and flight funds.
My portfolio is also composed of bond-related products. I originally had SXL as well, but I just liquidated it. I will explain that part and then discuss how best to approach investments related to semiconductors. Since it is currently market day, I will only explain the key points. First, if you look at the VIX index, you need to watch the VIX very closely right now because its expiration is approaching.
As you can see, strong VIX call and put positions are established at $25. A similar situation occurred last May, so let me show you how the FIX behaved ahead of its expiration back then. Starting two days before the expiration date of May 18th, the SPX began to rise, while the VIX began to fall. Then, starting from the expiration date, the VIX started to rise again, and the SPX began to fall.
The reason I am showing you this is that the level of large open interest in the VIX is similar to what it was back then. There are a lot of VIX secrets in this situation, and since about half of the large-scale VIX open interest is set to expire soon, we need to prepare for volatility. If I show you the chart, VIX broke through 30 last week and is currently trending downwards after hitting technical resistance three times.
It is also moving around the 20-day mark, which is a very important support line that I have been emphasizing recently; you need to look at this in conjunction with the FMC. It would be good to check whether it breaks below the 22-day mark. To explain it simply, if it breaks below the 20-day mark, it brings upward pressure on the stock market, whereas if a rebound occurs from 22, you can understand it as the market's rise being limited.
Finally, this picture is a graph comparing the historical price and the current price of VIX futures. It can be interpreted that VIX is currently higher than its historical price, so you should consider there to be a somewhat high possibility of large-scale liquidation occurring before expiration. I view the VIX index as one of the key variables leading up to the FMC, so it would be good to watch it closely.
Now, I will explain semiconductors while looking at the SEX. As you can see, the SEXX has been moving in this upward trend since last October. You can consider it to be exactly at about the halfway point right now. I just... SSL I have placed my entire position, but I didn't simply sell because it was at an intermediate level.
Broadly speaking, I can explain the reasons. First, since the previous high was recommended but failed to break through, I judged it to be resistance from a short-term perspective. Ultimately, for a breakout to occur, at least the trading volume formed at the previous high must be present. Generally, high trading volume is essential to break through specific zones, not just the previous high but also trends and resistance levels.
For example, if you look at when it broke through here last November, you can see that it was accompanied by high trading volume. The second reason is that I suspect NVIDIA's uptrend might reverse soon. To show you the NVIDIA options situation, the data you are currently viewing includes various option values, such as support and resistance lines.
Today, it appeared to break above the Call Warness 260, but it eventually hit resistance and is currently declining. In terms of options, this can be seen as a signal of a peak. NVIDIA's recent rise was clearly largely driven by expectations regarding AI. Since this is largely psychological, it is impossible to know exactly when it will reverse, but if the trend does break, the impact will be significant.
I believe that is the case. Also, regarding entering the SOX S, a semiconductor show product, I consider the most important prerequisite to be a two-share of Nvidia. I think an entry point for SOX S might be found soon, but I plan to keep watching the market as I go. Right now, looking specifically at the semiconductor sector, I intend to observe the market for the time being.
That concludes my explanation of why I took profits on the SWX Herald; please also note that I secured cash for FMC as a risk management measure. Since tomorrow's FMC is really important, I hope you prepare well so that it leads to a good opportunity. I will wrap up today's video here. Thank you sincerely for watching.
If this was helpful, please subscribe and like. If you have any questions or inquiries, please leave a comment and I will answer them. Thank you.
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