저자: 미부기 · 한국인
요약 보기
반도체 급락을 장기금리(30년물 5.3%)와 에너지 과열이 촉발한 것으로 진단. 장기금리 모멘텀 고점 가능성과 XLE 과열(이중천장 우려)을 근거로 제시. 반도체, 특히 메모리(DRAM)를 저점 매수 대상으로 보나 당장 진입보다 신중하게 접근하고 DRAM 55달러 재테스트, 57달러 이상 종가 시 65달러 가능성 언급. 자신은 UVXY를 매수했다고 밝힘. 무료 오프라인 강의 안내 포함.
다듬은 글
hello. This is the Mibukgi. Yesterday, the market saw a sharp decline centered on the semiconductor sector. As I pointed out in this week's market strategy, macroeconomic pressures such as the constant surge in long-term bonds and energy stocks are holding back the national index . In the case of the energy ETF XLE, it hit a new high yesterday, surpassing the peak recorded on March 6 .
Empirically, when the market ignores these macro warning signals and forces a rise, the upward trend itself was often a fake phase . That is how I explained the details regarding the fix, and I mentioned that semiconductors also need to utilize the pressure zone . In fact, I bought UVXY at the journal level, and I view semiconductors as a buy on dips.
I am watching the DRAM sector, and if a rebound signal appears, I plan to set up a 2x leveraged ETF for RAM and manage it as my main position . I do not view this semiconductor correction as the beginning of a bear market that will completely break the index trend. Rather, I am placing more weight on the contrarian buying opportunity of preparing for the tail end of a short-term pullback .
The first contrarian basis for changing the market sentiment is the exhaustion of momentum in long-term bond yields. The 30-year bond yield, which had been pressuring the market, entered a period of consolidation after recording consecutive bearish candles in this trading session . On the weekly chart, it is forming an upper wick.
Although the upward trend itself is still alive, there is news that volume has flowed in as the 30-year trend reached the 5.3% level. Simply put, it appears that the surge momentum has peaked for now as bargain-buying sentiment spreads that bonds are worth buying when interest rates are at the 5.3% or 3% level .
Even if bond yields continue to be suppressed in the long term, the overall downward pressure on the stock market will decrease, leading to much greater stability. Because it is acting as a trigger for the recent market downturn . The second reason is that the energy sector, which had been suppressing the stock market, has entered an overbought phase.
Even though current oil prices remain at the $85 level, XLE has risen to the peak level seen when oil prices surpassed $100 . Compared to the pattern of rising about 15% from the low point during the upward wave last July, this wave has also surged to a similar level, widening the gap significantly with the short-term moving average .
Any stock price surge accompanied by a rapid widening of the gap is bound to lead to a short-term sharp decline, and accordingly, there is a possibility of a new double top. Even currently, XLE is showing significant relative strength relative to oil prices. It could be said that prices have already reflected future oil price increases and inflationary pressures one step ahead of the actual rise in oil prices .
I think the point where the energy sector overshoots above the upper end of a double top and completes an upper-wicked candle could be one of the strong buy signals for risky assets. If these macro pressures actually start to ease, the next thing to look at is which sector will be the first to show rebound momentum in this correction.
Personally, I still prioritize the semiconductor sector, especially the memory sector . Considering the recent trends of SanDisk and Micron, I believe the strategy of buying in installments during periods of price dips like the present is still valid. It has recently shown tremendous rebound momentum.
However, this time, I plan to approach it a bit later than usual and a little more conservatively . SXX failed to raise its high and returned below the key neckline of 540 . As a result, we are in a situation where we must leave open the possibility that the previous breakthrough could end in a sweep .
In addition, macro variables such as long-term bond yields and energy prices have not yet reached a stage where they have been completely eliminated. Therefore, rather than filling up the volume simply because it has fallen significantly, we believe that waiting for the point when the overheating of interest rates and energy mentioned earlier subsides, and when actual selling pressure is absorbed and a rebound is confirmed in the semiconductor sector, is much more advantageous in terms of investment costs .
Ultimately, I think the key to this trade lies not in accurately hitting the bottom, but in identifying the point where macroeconomic pressure and a semiconductor rebound are simultaneously confirmed . Right now, I think that DRAM, which directly targets memory upcycling, is a higher- quality choice than the entire sector SX, which is being forced upon us.
DRAM also rebounded by forming an upward channel from its recent low, but was strongly pushed down yesterday. We are currently conducting a retest for $55, but we are leaving open the possibility of the premium dropping to up to $53 based on the channel . If it closes above $57 without further turning, I believe it could rise to the $65 level as a first step .
One variable here is next week's Microsoft earnings. The fact that SXX is currently repeatedly breaking through and breaking out around 540 can be interpreted to mean that even within the market, there is not yet strong confidence regarding the next direction of semiconductors . Therefore, until NVIDIA's earnings report, there is a strong possibility that SXX will once again form a non-trending sideways zone as it continues to absorb selling pressure above and below the 540 level .
Rather, it seems important to keep this possibility in mind right now . If you decide on a specific direction in advance—such as semiconductors rising immediately because interest rates are raised slightly, or the market reversing immediately because energy stocks have become overbought—you may continue to be shaken in a market like the recent one, where breakouts and exits are repeated .
It would be advisable to verify the sections where volatility is increasing more than predicted and pay close attention to them. Finally, I will briefly provide information regarding the free offline lectures . Due to a faster- than-expected surge in applications for the free subscriber lecture on Saturday, September 5th, we plan to close registration after accepting applications only until today.
For those who were interested, I would appreciate it if you could check the pinned comment . And thankfully, as this session of Kang-yeong was closing, Cider Economy urgently opened an additional session for Assemblyman Kang on Sunday, September 13th . The offline lecture on September 13th is also free of charge .
We will organize the schedule and application method and announce it again soon. We are preparing so that viewers can actually purchase and take home at least one item, so if you are interested, I hope you will take advantage of this opportunity. Then, I'll wrap up today's video here . Thank you so much for watching today.
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