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consumer has held up better than what the market was anticipating they would be at americans are leaning into credit card rewards to help offset rising costs according to a new wells fargo study 92 of americans are concerned about inflation and nearly half of all reward card holders say they're leaning on rewards to help cut costs on everyday purchases investors became convinced that inflation is with us for years and it's very sticky but it looks like inflation is proving to be a lot less sticky and maybe even more sensitive to gasoline falling because of how gasoline moves through the services cpi and if that's correct then we are tracking more towards a soft landing that's more like 2018 and and that would mean markets have already discounted much of the fed tightening and so we would want to be buying this rally over the last 45 days since july 2022 beginning bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market have given a strong run-up but from the middle of the week bitcoin price turned hostile after reaching as high as close to 25 000 so what does that imply for bitcoin and for the bigger macro picture today we're going over what chamath thinks of being in a bubble telling whether or not the market is in a bubble is one tough deal you have to define what game you want to play before you start playing the game okay this is why i think it's kind of nonsensical for example i believe that at best i am an equity investor in technology companies or things that have a technology bias because i can generally understand them maybe you know a few seconds faster than everybody else which allows me to make a decision a little bit quicker but if all of a sudden i started investing in debt you should expect that i'll lose my money because i don't know what i'm doing and that's not the game where i have any advantage so i think the most important thing to do is to not try to do all of this crazy stuff because this is what happens in moments where either things are very very good or things are very very bad people try to create all these stupid rules and the rule the only rule is there are no rules so i don't know i just think it's like stick to your knitting if you're a product builder build products if you're an early stage investor just do that it's hard enough to do any one of those things really really really well but this idea that you know you're going to come up with like some mosaic in a system i think it's just highly suspect and i think the market returns have showed that everybody that tries has failed except for maybe one or two facts i mean it's just not gonna work what's the point so i don't know if you're an early stage investor make good deals and then give the shares and book the win while there's no definitive answer there are a few indications that can tell us inflation is one of the most important factors to consider when determining whether or not the market is in a bubble another indicator of a market bubble is when the prices of assets such as homes and stocks rise faster than the overall economy this is often a sign that people are investing more money than they can afford to lose still there are many others too let's see what chamath has to say on this matter and the big macro picture but before going ahead be sure to subscribe for more videos on crypto market and economy let's dive into the video if you actually just take a step back and stop overlaying what we want to happen look the reality is all four of us want things to go up and we like it when there's money in the system and everything's flush but if we had said last year that we would open an envelope and you know we would show these inflation prints we would be shocked and we would have been scared and quite honestly you know in the process in november when i started selling i would have sold even more violently than i saw and all i can say is i saved my ass in november of last year looking at what's happened in the last six eight months so i don't know i just think that if you look at the cpi print um and you look at the components we were saved because energy basically fell off a cliff and for whatever reason a bunch of people decided not to travel and you know we didn't import as much oil and we were able to keep cost contained and that kept cpi from being really out of control but again we're in the summer where we don't have the pressure on energy that we're going to have in october and november this year so i i really don't know i mean i just think that there is like freeberg has his pet issue i have my pet issue saks has his pet issue you ask a hundred economists they'll have their own pet issue housing affordability whatever it is the point is we have a hundred whack-a-mole problems and the question is which mousetrap sets off the rest of the mousetraps i have no idea um and so you know i just think that right now things are a little bit too calm and that makes me feel very unsettled according to chamoth the only rule out there in the market is that there are no rules you can never know what will happen next or what shoe will drop next stay tuned to know why chamath believes that things right now are a little bit too calm but before going ahead be sure to give a big thumbs up to this video you've been in secular decline on that trend for 25 years maybe maybe on the margins a few folks um run out of stimulus and decide to go and get a job but i don't think again it's it's kind of like you know when you're you're when you're at the blackjack table in vegas i feel like all the like what we're talking about right now is clapping as a strategy maybe this can happen maybe that cap you know what maybe it'll start raining gold [ __ ] coins that we can use chamoth explains a lot of reasons why we had seen the gas prices lower this time which had kept cpi from being out of control but you see he also explains that right now in summer we don't have much pressure on energy or at all if compared to winners ahead so what could be the inflation print ahead according to him there are a lot of shoes to drop ahead hundreds of problems to solve talking about that the recent job data also came out really surprising but like in a good way going back to work looks like a helpful path out here in order for the economy to function properly money needs to circulate through different sectors increased participation is one way to increase monetary velocity which circulates back into the economy and stimulates growth chamath sees this participation of going to work as a kind of clapping strategy i mean consumers are getting more and more inclined towards credit alright inflation is hovering near a 40-year high and maybe people are relying more and more on their credit cards recent data shows credit balances jumping by 13 in the second quarter from a year ago the biggest gain in more than 20 years it's not all bad news i mean it shows that consumers are confident we're spending but in large part we're spending more putting more on our credit cards to deal with inflation just because as you can see everything is costing more the inflation data shows that things are cooling off a bit but things are still historically high on everything from gas to groceries to rent so is buy now pay later a debt trap for americans how fast is inflation going back down to normal based on interest rate increases how much will the economy be hurt by these rising rates a lot of jobs are getting filled good but there's unquestionably an economic slowdown let me know your thoughts in the comments below for more videos like this be sure to subscribe share and like i'll see you in my next video adios you
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